ADAPTATION MONITORING, ASSESSMENT, AND PLANNING: A PERSPECTIVE FROM ONTARIO

Transcription

1 ADAPTATION MONITORING, ASSESSMENT, AND PLANNING: A PERSPECTIVE FROM ONTARIO Adaptation in the Great Lakes Conference Ann Arbor, Michigan June 24 26, 2014 Scott MacRitchie, P.Geo. Toronto, Ontario

2 OUTLINE Monitoring: Integrated climate and water quantity and quality monitoring for climate change detection and adaptation. 2

3 OUTLINE Monitoring: Integrated climate and water quantity and quality monitoring for climate change detection and adaptation. Assessment: Vulnerability assessment at a watershed scale. 3

4 OUTLINE Monitoring: Integrated climate and water quantity and quality monitoring for climate change detection and adaptation. Assessment: Vulnerability assessment at a watershed scale. Planning: Adaptation planning at a watershed scale. 4

5 BACKGROUND Conservation Authority: Watershed based management agency. CCME: Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment. COA: Canada-Ontario Agreement. Lake Simcoe: Ontario s largest inland lake 5

6 6

7 MONITORING COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change. 7

8 MONITORING DETECTION COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change. 8

9 MONITORING DETECTION COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change. ADAPTATION 9

10 MONITORING COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change. 10

11 PARKHILL CREEK 11

12 PARKHILL CREEK INTEGRATED MONITORING STATION 12

13 PARKHILL CREEK INTEGRATED MONITORING STATION 13

14 PARKHILL CREEK INTEGRATED MONITORING STATION 14

15 INTEGRATED MONITORING DATA TRANSMISSION 15

16 PARKHILL DATA EXAMPLE: JULY 2012 TO JUNE 2014 GROUNDWATER STREAM 16

17 CCME MONITORING GUIDANCE Prioritization within study area: Sensitivity, Ecosystem Service Valuation, Ombrothermic (Climate Moisture Index [Precip - Potential ET]) 17

18 CCME MONITORING GUIDANCE Prioritization within study area: Sensitivity, Ecosystem Service Valuation, Ombrothermic (Climate Moisture Index Precip - Potential ET) Network evaluation within prioritized areas: Audit (workshop), Network Degradation, Multivariate 18

19 MONITORING: NEXT STEPS Subwatershed modelling Integrated surface-groundwater model Nitrate discharge Land use Baseline water budget Repeat every 10 years 19

20 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Vulnerability = Exposure + Sensitivity! " " "Adaptive Capacity! 20

21 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: LAKE SIMCOE 21

22 LAKE SIMCOE AND 18 SUBWATERSHEDS 22

23 LAKE SIMCOE BASICS 23 municipalities Drinking water source for 6 communities 15 sewage treatment plants 12% is urbanized, which is increasing rapidly City of Barrie was the fastest growing area in Canada from (20%) Large increase in urban land cover (85 km 2 in 1991 to 285 km 2 in 2001) 47% of catchment is agricultural e.g., Holland Marsh From Eleanor Stainsby, Science and Monitoring: Lake Simcoe and its Watershed. Presentation to Denlow Public School, April 11,

24 EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT Simple Water Balance used to assess exposure. P = ET + Surplus + ΔStorage Potential ET > Actual ET 24

25 WATER BALANCE MONTHLY P AND T FOR SAND SOIL 25

26 WATER BALANCE MONTHLY P AND T FOR SAND SOIL 26

27 Comparison of water balance results from climate models and climate normals 27

28 SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT Water Quantity and Quality Indicators: Water Availability Baseflow Index Wetland Cover Groundwater Vulnerability Forest Cover Phosphorus Loading Variability of Streamflow Floodplain Area Sewage Bypass 28

29 CCME VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT GUIDANCE 29

30 CCME VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT GUIDANCE Tools for Assessing Exposure: Lumped Models Semi-distributed models Fully-distributed models Indicators Tools for Assessing Sensitivity: Watersheds Human Communities Freshwater Ecosystems Tools for Assessing Adaptive Capacity: Human Communities Resilience of Freshwater Ecosystems 30

31 ASSESSMENT: SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS Assessment of Adaptive Capacity Difficult but essential Need for more experience Relate adaptive capacity to sensitivity indicators Capital: (i) Human (ii) Social (iii) Physical (iv) Financial (v) Natural Determinants 1: economic resources; technology; infrastructure; information, skills, and management; institutions and networks; and equity Determinants 2: (i) Actor assets (ii) Community resources (iii) Institutions 31

32 ASSESSMENT: SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS Top-down approach Top-down Bottom-up Combination Climate adaptation policy World development Global greenhouse gases Global climate models Regionalization Impacts Vulnerability (physical) Global Local Vulnerability (social) Adaptive Capacity Indicators based on: Technology Economic resources Information and skills Infrastructure Equity Institutions Bottom-up approach Past Present Future Figure : Top-down and bottom-up approaches to climate change adaptation. Source Dessai and Hulme (3) Dessai, S., and M. Hulme Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Climate Policy. 4(2):

33 CCME GUIDANCE: IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLANNING AT A WATERSHED SCALE (2014, IN PRESS) 33

34 PLANNING FRAMEWORK PRINCIPLES Water quantity and quality Different watershed scales Top-down and bottom-up Developing assessment indicators Adaptive management Effectiveness monitoring Mainstreaming Uncertainty 34

35 CONCLUSIONS Integration: monitoring-modeling-management, science-policy. 4 C s: Collaboration, Coordination, Cooperation, Communication: disciplines, jurisdictions, public (stakeholders). Uncertainty is not going away: how to manage and build infrastructure in a non-stationary future. Assessing Adaptive Capacity. Adaptation measures: No-low regrets, hard/soft, costs/ benefits, implementation issues (water governance), mainstreaming. 35

36 PRINCIPLES FOR ADAPTATION Five Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Law Principle #1: Monitor and Study Everything All the Time Principle #2: Eliminate or Reduce Non Climate Change Stresses and Otherwise Promote Resilience Principle #3: Plan for the Long Term with Much Increased Coordination Across Media, Sectors, Interests, and Governments Principle #4: Promote Principled Flexibility in Regulatory Goals and Natural Resource Management Principle #5: Accept Really Accept That Climate Change Adaptation Will Often Be Painful Robin Kundis Craig, STATIONARITY IS DEAD LONG LIVE TRANSFORMATION: FIVE PRINCIPLES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION LAW, Harvard Environmental Law Review, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 9 75,