Lake Simcoe Watershed Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Water Quantity and Quality

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1 Lake Simcoe Watershed Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Water Quantity and Quality Presentation to A.D. Latornell Conservation Symposium November 16, 2011 Eleanor Stainsby & Scott MacRitchie

2 Vulnerability Assessment Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity A human or ecological system may be exposed and sensitive, but may have a high adaptive capacity which gives that system a low vulnerability. 2

3 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: EXPOSURE Simple Water Balance used to assess exposure. P = ET + Surplus + Storage Potential ET > Actual ET 3

4 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: EXPOSURE Average Annual Temperature Range Increase in Temperature Annual Precipitation Range Climate Normals Projected Range from 10 climate models 6.6 C 9 to 12.5 C 2.8 to 5.7 C for January and July 938 mm 881 to 1084 mm Ensemble approach used 10 climate models with the Thornthwaite Monthly Water Balance Model USGS model available for free at: 4

5 Monthly Runoff Predictions using 10 Climate Projections TOTAL RUNOFF (mm) CGCM3T SRA2 CGCM3T SRB1 CGCM3T63 SRB1 CNRMCM3 SRB1 ECHAM50M SRA2 GFLCM20 SRA1B INGV-SXG SRA2 INMCM30 SRA1B IPSLCM4 SRA2 MIROC32 SRB1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MONTH 5

6 Monthly Soil Moisture Deficit Predictions using 10 Climate Projections WATER DEFICIT (mm) CGCM3T SRA2 CGCM3T SRB1 CGCM3T63 SRB1 CNRMCM3 SRB1 ECHAM50M SRA2 GFLCM20 SRA1B INGV-SXG SRA2 INMCM30 SRA1B IPSLCM4 SRA2 MIROC32 SRB Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MONTH 6

7 Sensitivity: Climate Stressors Water use Drought Floods and Surface Runoff Phosphorus Loading Water availability Groundwater recharge/discharge Wetland Cover Snow and ice cover 7

8 Sensitivity of the Subwatersheds Water Quantity Indicator Water Use / Availability Baseflow Index Wetland Cover Groundwater Vulnerability Water Quality Indicator Phosphorus Loading Variability of Streamflow Floodplain Area Sewage Bypass Forest Cover 8

Sensitive Subwatersheds East Holland Current Sensitivities Low water availability, high P loading, high floodplain area. Black River Low water availability, high wetland cover, high sewage by-passes.

9 Sensitive Subwatersheds East Holland Current Sensitivities Low water availability, high P loading, high floodplain area. Black River Low water availability, high wetland cover, high sewage by-passes. Beaver River High wetland cover, low forest cover, high stream flow variability. Barrie Creeks Ramara Creeks Low water availability, high baseflow, low forest cover, high P loading. High baseflow, high wetland cover, high groundwater vulnerability, low forest cover, high floodplain area. 9

10 Hydrologic Impact: Potential Consequences Climate change: increased air temperatures, more precipitation with intense storms in fall and winter but lower precipitation during the summer months Water demand could exceed supply during summer months leading to shortages Loss or damage to aquatic and terrestrial habitats (wetlands, water stressed vegetation) Loss or damage to infrastructure Greater erosion, sediment and contaminant loads Loss or damage to winter recreation Extended growing season 10

11 INDICATORS: LAKE SIMCOE Phosphorus Loadings Lake Temperature Ice Cover Dissolved Oxygen Sewage and flood control failures Beach Closures Drinking water odour and taste problems Lake Levels Habitat and Ecosystem Response 11

12 Lake Simcoe: Phosphorus Loadings Spring total P (ug/l) Spring total P concentrations have significantly decreased over the past 30 years Increases in P loadings are anticipated due to increases in surface runoff due to climate change as well as projected population increases BUT adaptive PRS will work to reduce load to 44 T/yr. (Young et al, 2010) 12

13 Lake Simcoe: Lake Temperature 13 (Stainsby et al, 2011)

14 Lake Simcoe: Ice Cover < 14

15 Lake Simcoe: Ice Cover The length of the icefree season could increase with increasing air temperature by more than a month by Days Duration the of Ice-Free Season In addition to ecological impacts, shorter ice cover will impact recreational ice-fishing and tourism Year Observed Duration (EC Data) Observed Duration (LSFAU Data) Duration based on mean AT Duration based on Min AT Duration based on Max AT 15

16 Lake Simcoe: Other Indicators Dissolved oxygen Sewage and flood control failures Beach Closures Drinking water odour and taste problems Lake Levels Habitat & Ecosystem Response Deepwater oxygen (mg/l) (Young et al, 2010) 1996 Yearly 5 Year Target

17 Non-Climatic Stressors Water use / availability Increasing demand due to population increases; changes in crops; changes to forest and wetland cover Groundwater recharge/discharge Development in groundwater recharge areas; increase in impervious area Drought Increased water use during summer with increased population due to tourism 17

18 Non-Climatic Stressors Floods and Surface Runoff Exacerbated by increased impervious surface due to development Phosphorus Loading & Increasing population leads to increased phosphorus load; intensified farming; loss of natural areas; aging infrastructure. An adaptive Phosphorus Reduction Strategy working towards reducing loads to 44 T/yr by 2045 Snow and ice cover Increase in development; changes in forest cover 18

19 CURRENT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Vulnerability = ( Exposure + Sensitivity ) Adaptive Capacity (Fonataine & Steinemann, 2009) Adaptive Capacity: the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences (IPCC Working Group II, 2007) 19

20 Thank you! SLIDE DIVIDER Georgina Kaltenecker, Jennifer Winter, Joelle Young, William Day, Jillian Kingston, Patrick Cheung, Huaxia Yao & Dong Zhang of the MOE Mark & Vanessa Ledlie for field services Mary Jane Sarjeant for ice cover data Hamdi Jarjanazi for data interpolation 20

Climate Change & Urbanization Have Changed River Flows in Ontario

Climate Change & Urbanization Have Changed River Flows in Ontario by Trevor Dickinson & Ramesh Rudra Water Resources Engineering University of Guelph Acknowledgements Agencies NSERC, OMAF & Environment