FAQ Climate change: a primer

Transcription

1 SNR 104- Climate in Crisis? Spring 2010 FAQ Climate change: a primer IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

2 SNR 104- Climate in Crisis? Is this really a crisis? crisis- Etymology: Middle English, from Latin, from Greek krisis, literally, decision, from krinein to decide. 1 a: the turning point for better or worse in an acute disease or fever b: an emotionally significant event or radical change of status in a person's life <a midlife crisis> 2: the decisive moment (as in a literary plot) 3 a: an unstable or crucial time or state of affairs in which a decisive change is impending ; especially : one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome <a financial crisis>

3 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change. The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of humaninduced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) * Governments participate in plenary Sessions of the IPCC where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. They also participate the review of IPCC Reports. * The scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers.

5 The Big Picture Is the planet really warming up? 1 deg C = 1.8 deg F The decade was the warmest decade on record! Base Period = NASA-GISS

6 The Big Picture Is the planet really warming up? 1 deg C = 1.8 deg F Base Period = NASA-GISS

7 The Big Picture IPCC 2007 Fig FAQ3.1.1

8 The Big Picture (10 km) Global temperature trends from IPCC 2007 Fig FAQ3.1.1

9 The Big Picture What s the big deal about a degree or so of warming? We are talking about a global average It s not uniform Urban Heat-Island effects

10

11

12 Spatial distribution of global temperature changes December 2009 and JJA 2009 are the 4th and 2nd warmest globally for those periods. Base Period = NASA-GISS

13 The Big Picture IPCC 2007 FAQ 9.1 Fig 1 Summer temperatures in Switzerland from

14 The Big Picture Is the planet really warming up? ICE National Snow and Ice Data Center

15 Arctic sea ice extent

16 Global Glacier Changes: facts and figures Glacier length changes; advancing (blue) and retreating (red) glaciers.

17 The Big Picture Isn t the science of climate change and global warming uncertain? Yes- but it is confused on a much higher plane than it used to be

18 The Big Picture How can humans change the whole world s climate?

19 The Greenhouse Effect - as real as gravity Atmospheric gases: some gases tend to trap heat which is radiated from the Earth Earth s average surface Temp= 57 F Without any trapping Earth would be 57 F cooler and would have no liquid water at surface (an icehouse world)

20 Residence Time and Sources of Greenhouse gases (excluding water vapor) The Hadley Centre 2005

21 The Greenhouse Effect - as real as gravity

22 Annual energy flow to Earth from the Sun

23 The Big Picture IPCC 2007 FAQ 2.1 Fig 1

24 The Big Picture Human contribution to greenhouse gases IPCC 2007 Fig 2-1

25

26 The Big Picture What is Radiative Forcing? Radiative forcing is a measure of how the energy balance of the Earthatmosphere system is influenced when factors that affect climate are altered. The word radiative arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation within the Earth s atmosphere. Radiative forcing is usually quantified as the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere, and is expressed in units of Watts per square metre (see Figure 2). Radiative forcing can be positive (leading to warming) or negative (leading to cooling FAQ 2.1, Box 1

27 The Big Picture Natural vs human causes detection and attribution studies IPCC 2007 FAQ 2.1 Fig 2

28

29

30 Natural forcings do not fully explain observed late 20 th century warming And global cooling in 1940 s to 70 s? Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigley, and C. Tebaldi, 2004: J. Climate, 17,

31 The Big Picture Hurricanes: There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface temperature. Other regions appear to have experienced increased hurricane intensity as well, but there are concerns about the quality of data in these other regions. It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity. IPCC, 2007

32 The Outlook What s so bad about a warm climate? Trend of the monthly PDSI IPCC 2007 FAQ 3.2 Fig 1

33 The Outlook What s so bad about a warm climate? Trend of the monthly PDSI IPCC 2007 FAQ 3.2 Fig 1

34 Anomaly in cm IPCC (2007) Working Group II April, 2007 Model projections for global land precipitation

35 The Outlook How about sea-level rise? IPCC 2007 FAQ 5.1 Fig 1

36

37 What can we do about it? The Kyoto Protocol Earth Summit- Brazil, June 1992 The objective is to achieve "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." As of 2008, 183 countries have ratified the protocol.

38 What can we do about it? The Kyoto Protocol This is a challenge that requires a 100% effort; ours, and the rest of the world's. The world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is the People's Republic of China. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol... America's unwillingness to embrace a flawed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies as any abdication of responsibility. To the contrary, my administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate change... President George W. Bush June 11, 2001

39 What can we do about it? The Kyoto Protocol Will Kyoto make a difference? Only a small one but it is a start and taking it serious would have sent a message of cooperation to the rest of the world. Reducing GHG emissions by a few percent over time is akin to overspending your household budget by a decreasing amount each year: your debt still piles up, if only at a slower pace. Robert Henson, 2008

40 Which countries emit the most GHGs?

41 What can we do about it? How about China and India?

42 What can we do about it? How about China and India? China uses coal to power over 3/4ths of its electricity generation

43 What can we do about it? How about China and India? Tata Mundra, the largest coal-fired energy plant built in decades, is going up in India's port city of Mundra with the help of a $450- million loan from the World Bank (total cost - $4.2-billion). The 4,000-megawatt coal plant will use modern, efficient technologies to produce enough electricity for 16 million people, but will emit only 13 percent less carbon than a conventional coal-fired facility. Experts predict that up to 20 percent of the power generated will be lost to India s poorly maintained electricity grid, negating any benefits of the plant s technology.

44 What can we do about global warming - now that the debate regarding humans causing the warming is over? There are two basic types of response to climate change. Mitigation is reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for climate change, so that less change occurs. Adaptation is dealing with the consequences of warming and other aspects of climate change, such as changes in extreme weather events. We have to avoid the unadaptable and adapt to the unavoidable

45 What can we do about global warming - And Suffering- There are three basic types of response Ximinez: NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition! Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope... And who will be doing most of the suffering?