FortisBC Resource Planning Advisory Group. Full Workshop May 29 th, 2012

Transcription

1 FortisBC Resource Planning Advisory Group Full Workshop May 29 th, 2012

2 Agenda 8:30 a.m. 9:00 a.m. 9:00 a.m. 9:15 a.m. Sign In Breakfast Introduction Welcome & LTRP Update 9:15 a.m. 10:00 a.m. Board bus for site visit and travel to Tilbury LNG Facility 10:00 a.m. 12:00 p.m. Tour of the Tilbury LNG Facility 12:00 p.m. 12:45 p.m. Board bus and travel back to Coast Coal Harbour Hotel 12:45p.m. 1:15p.m. Lunch 1:15p.m. 1:45 p.m. Long Term Resource Planning Update Discussion of Community Consultation Events & LTRP Timeline 1:45 p.m. 2:15 p.m. Forecasting Update Update on End Use Forecast 2:15 p.m. 2:45 p.m. System Sustainment Discussion Review of FortisBC s Asset Management Planning 2:45 p.m. 3:00 p.m. Break 3:00 p.m. 3:45 p.m. New Technology Discussion FortisBC s Review of New Technologies 3:45 p.m. 4:00 p.m. Wrap Up & Next Steps

3 Introduction & Welcome Jason Wolfe Senior Manager, Market Development

4 Long Term Resource Plan Update Ken Ross Integrated Resource Planning Manager

5 Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Process Assess customer needs and examine options to meet the needs Examine the Planning Environment Forecast of Energy Needs Efficiency and Conservation Potential Options for Growth and Sustainment Select Preferred Options Long Term Strategy & Action Plan Risks & opportunities Customer & demand forecasts Demand side management Conservation effort, infrastructure, service offerings, energy purchases Portfolio Analysis 4-year Action Plan Clean Energy Act BC Utilities Act Section 44.1 BCUC Resource Planning Guidelines Directives and Orders Long Term Resource Plan (LTRP) IRP = LTRP

6 RPAG Discussions to Date Policy environment and regulation Trends in customer energy use Gas production and supply Energy prices New service opportunities (ex.: Transportation and Biogas) 2010 LTRP Examine the Planning Environment Forecast of Energy Needs Efficiency and Conservation Potential Options for Growth and Sustainment Select Preferred Options Long Term Strategy & Action Plan Risks & opportunities Customer & demand forecasts Demand side management Conservation effort, infrastructure, service offerings, energy purchases Portfolio Analysis 4-year Action Plan Future scenarios Understanding gas demand

7 RPAG Discussions Today Forecasting requirements and methodologies System sustainment planning - asset management - how, why and where Examine the Planning Environment Forecast of Energy Needs Efficiency and Conservation Potential Options for Growth and Sustainment Select Preferred Options Long Term Strategy & Action Plan Risks & opportunities Customer & demand forecasts Demand side management Conservation effort, infrastructure, service offerings, energy purchases Portfolio Analysis 4-year Action Plan New technology impacts and opportunities

8 Forecasting Update David Bailey Customer Energy and Forecasting Manager May 29, 2012

9 Message Forecast Methods Traditional End Use Approach Repurpose existing data

10 Traditional Long Term Forecast Start Short term (5 yr) forecast Add Scenarios Robust, reference, low 15 years 10

11 PJs Traditional Long Term Forecast The short term RRA forecast lead to the 2010 LTRP forecast 80 RRA and 2010 LTRP Forecast

12 End Use Method Residential example Consider End Uses Baseline Space heating Water heating Cooktop, BBQ, fireplace etc Develop a baseline first Scenarios Scenarios applied to end uses 12

13 End Use Method - Residential DHW Space LML UPC Cooktop 95 GJs BBQ Fireplace DHW Space DHW Cooktop LML Space UPC Cooktop 80 BBQ GJs BBQ Fireplace Fireplace Note illustrative only 13

14 Approach Reuse the CPR Conservation Potential Review A study to identify technologies with the potential to conserve Long term End use data Can we re-purpose customer data already collected? Approached ICF Marbek Yes we can

15 Advantages Re-purpose the investment Efficient re-use Fits the budget Benefit from Marbek s expertise They have the models, experience, capability We retain control of significant inputs We know our customer data best A true end use forecast Solution has the features we need

16 Flowchart RPAG Demo Confirm feasibility Retain Marbek Provide model inputs Compute baseline forecast Develop scenarios Proof of concept Baseline Results Scenario Results

17 Asset Management Infrastructure Sustainment Program Lee Robson Sustainment Planning Manager

18 The Challenge: Our Aging Infrastructure Two-thirds of current assets aged Installed in cycles expect failure or obsolescence in a similar fashion Replacement costs >> installation costs Retirement Period Years in Service Increased regulation, heightened stakeholder expectations System well maintained today, technologies continue to improve

19 Infrastructure Sustainment Program What is this program? A long-term (20-year outlook) program that supports safe, reliable, environmentally responsible and economical gas delivery to our customers now and in the future. A continuous improvement process Objective: Identify, Prioritize, and Schedule

20 Infrastructure Sustainment Program Process: Data gathering and analysis Develop a methodology Assess the risk

21 Infrastructure Sustainment Program Develop the Plan: Compare capital investment requirements Include financial, risk, and strategic considerations to: Protect our customers Maintain the reliability and safety of assets Seek synergies where possible

22 Break 2:45-3:00

23 New Technology Discussion Dan Bradley Energy Utilization Manager Tom Partridge Marketing Program Specialist, Innovative Technologies

24 Purpose of New Technology Discussion Outline how we identify and track changes in technologies and regulations Showcase some of the upcoming technologies and regulations that may impact future energy use and could be incorporated into scenarios 24

25 Outline General Trends to Watch Tracking changes in technology Codes and Regulations Building Technologies and Controls Types of Potential Technology Condensing Equipment Dual Fuel Equipment Transportation Specific Energy Saving (Load Reducing) Technologies Examples of potential reductions in energy use due to specific technologies or technological advances 25

26 26 General Trends to Watch

27 Tracking Changes We follow the changing landscape of technologies and regulations through: Committees BC Safety Authority Consensus Process Professional Organizations Associations Builder/Developers Utilities Manufacturers Contacts 27

28 Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Codes and Regulations 1 28

29 Codes and Regulations 2 Code compliance & enforcement Impacts of changing technologies Example: Side wall venting 29

30 Building Design & Controls Passive House, Net Zero, EnerGuide rating, R-2000 Integrated Design Controls 30

31 31 Types of Potential Technologies

32 32 Condensing Equipment

33 Dual Energy Input Equipment Air exchange heat pumps with gas back-up Hybrid vehicles that use more than one fuel Hybrid DHW Combined Heat & Power (CHP) 33

34 Transportation CNG LNG Waste Haulers Heavy Duty Trucks Transit Buses Marine 34

35 35 Specific Energy Saving (Load Reducing) Technologies

36 Examples: High Efficiency Water Heaters -.67 by 2016,.80 by 2020 Condensing Make Up Air Units Occupancy Sensors AHU Coil Cleaning On-Demand MURB CDWH Efficiency (Re-circulation Loops for Central Domestic Water Heaters) Spray Kiln Misting System Solar Thermal Air High Efficiency Unit Heaters (Commercial & Industrial) 36

37 High Efficiency Water Heaters Total projected savings per unit is 6 GJ per year Annual Energy Savings Potential: 440, ,000 GJ for SFD 37

38 Condensing Make Up Air Units Total projected savings per unit is 110 GJ per year Annual Energy Savings Potential: 200, ,000 GJ for MURBs. 38

39 Occupancy Sensors Total projected savings per unit 6GJ per year Annual Energy Savings Potential: ~1,700,000 GJ 39

40 On-demand MURB CDHW efficiency (re-circulation loops for central domestic water heaters) Total projected savings per unit 153 GJ per year Annual Energy Savings Potential: 418,734 1,256,203 GJ 40

41 Condensing Unit Heaters 14% Gas savings for 93% efficiency model (406 GJ usage) compared to an 80% efficiency baseline (472 GJ usage) 41

42 Solar Thermal Air GJ savings per year depending on application (Schools/Agricultural drying etc.) Annual Energy Savings Potential: ~540,000 GJ 42

43 Industrial Energy-Saving Technologies Spray Kiln Misting System Energy Management Controls for Kilns 43

44 Next Steps Ken Ross Integrated Resource Planning Manager

45 Fall RPAG Workshop Energy Efficiency and Conservation Alternatives and Planning Infrastructure Needs Assessment Examine the Planning Environment Forecast of Energy Needs Efficiency and Conservation Potential Options for Growth and Sustainment Select Preferred Options Long Term Strategy & Action Plan Risks & opportunities Customer & demand forecasts Demand side management Conservation effort, infrastructure, service offerings, energy purchases Portfolio Analysis 4-year Action Plan Forecasting Results Scenario Analysis Results to date

46 46 Timeline