Welcome. Gas Demand. Alex Haffner, Usman Bagudu, Neil Rowley. System Operator

Transcription

1 Welcome Gas Demand Alex Haffner, Usman Bagudu, Neil Rowley System Operator

2 What we will cover today FES 2018 scenario framework overview Gas Demand Components Residential demand Industrial and Commercial demand Gas for power Gas for transport Gas for H2 Conversion Gas for export Total annual gas demand Peak gas demand Q&A How to stay involved

3 Prosperity Level of decentralisation FES 2017 to FES 2018 Consumer Evolution Power Community Two Degrees Renewables Steady Progression State Slow Two Degrees Progression Speed of decarbonisation Green ambition Prosperity

4 Percentage Homes Residential heat: thermal efficiency High case: CR & TD Low case: SP & CE Band D Band C Band B Band A

5 Millions Residential heat: low-carbon technology Now CR TD SP CE Gas boiler Electric Others Hybrid heat pump gas boiler Hydrogen District Heat

6 Residential heat: TWh provided in Gas boilers TD SP 2017 Electricity (HP + resistive) TD 2017 CR Hybrids 2017 SP CR Hydrogen Boilers SP 2017 TD District Heat CR 2017 SP

7 TWh/year Gas Demand: Annual Residential Divergence of SP & CE as heat pumps pick up in CE High insulation rates + uptake of heat pumps in TD & CR Aggressive rollout of HPs in CR and H2 networks in TD First H2 network come online in TD Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

8 TWh/year Gas Demand: Industrial and Commercial Drive to meet EU 2030 energy efficiency target in CR &TD Early CHPs uptake in CR 100 Initial rollout of H2 networks in TD Community Renewables Two Degrees (Exc H2 Conv) Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

9 TWh/year Gas Demand: Power Rapid rise in renewable generation Period of relative swing in demand in CE and SP as closed nuclear plants are being replaced Demand pick up in SP from CCS at high load factors Demand pick up in TD from CCS but at low load factors Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

10 TWh/year Gas Demand: Transport Switch over to H2 as gas being used as transitional fuel in TD & CR Demand continue to grow in SP & CE Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

11 TWh/year Gas Demand: Exports through Moffat Gas being used as transitional fuel to decarbonise power and transport in all scenarios, as the Corrib field continues to decline. Note high case mapped to TD&CR and low case to SP&CE. Increasing domestic production of bio resources for long term decarbonisation in CR&TD Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History System Operator

12 TWh/year Gas Demand: Exports through IUK Largely stable exports in SP&CE due to moderate domestic production CE falling off of peak period of domestic shale (and biogas) production Flexible exports in TD & CR + increased domestic biogas production High import dependency in SP, less domestic (shale + biogas) production, and high domestic demand Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

13 TWh/year Gas Demand: H2 Conversion in TD Residential Industrial Commercial Transport Total

14 TWh/year Gas Demand: Total, including exports Increase demand for CCS in SP to decarbonise Power offset by declining exports Rapidly improving energy efficiency in TD and CR + Decarbonisation of power and heat H2 network rollout arrests decline in TD Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

15 GWh/d Gas Demand: 1-in-20 Peak 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 CCS rollout at high load factors to decarbonise Power in SP Fast improving energy efficiency in TD and CR Peak demand in TD expected to continue a downward trend because H2 production via SMR operate as baseload all year; flexibility at peak H2 demand is met from H2 storage 3,500 Early rollout of 3,000 H2 network in TD Continuing transition to 2,500 electric heating via HPs in CR 2, / / / / / / / /51 Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

16 Key messages Residential: Improving energy efficiency and electrification of heat will see demand decline in all scenarios Power: Growth of renewables and nuclear will see gas used increasingly as flexibility provider I&C: Increased electrification and biofuels will drive decarbonisation to 2050 Transport: Increase gas demand in 2040s to decarbonise heavy goods vehicles Exports Moffat: increase in gas demand in short to mid term as Ireland goes off coal Exports IUK: A wide range of potential outcomes depending on level of shale development Hydrogen: from 2030s demand by SMR+CCUS in TD scenario will see gas consumption shift dramatically away from DNs to the NTS Peak 1-in-20: will see a long term decline in all scenarios driven mainly by declining demand in residential and power sectors

17 Future Events Webinars FES 2018 Overview Gas Demand Electricity Demand Gas Supply Electricity Supply Dates Tuesday 17 th July, 10:00-11:00am Wednesday 18 th July, 10:00-11:00am Wednesday 18 th July, 2:00-3:00pm Thursday 19 th July, 10:00-11:00am Thursday 19 th July, 2:00-3:00pm To join please visit:

18 2018 Future Energy Scenarios Questions

19 How to stay involved FES 2018 launched on 12 July FES 2018 webinars during w/c 16 July Stakeholder engagement for FES 2019 from autumn 2018 Keep up-to-date via our website and newsletter

20 Thank you for your time Stay in touch: For more information visit: System Operator