Climate Change, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Transcription

1 Climate Change, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

2 Outlines I)Climate Change A) Phenomenon explana.on B) Consequences C) Adapta.on strategies D) Mi.ga.on strategies II) Energy issues A) Renewable energy B) Energy efficiency

3 I) Climate Change

4 Explanation of the phenomenon Greenhouse gases : Water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3) Greenhouse effect : habitable warm earth 14 C, -18 C without it. Anthropogenic greenhouse effect : human development and activities produce CO2 - fossil fuel - deforestation - cement production Climate is changing because of anthropic ac=vi=es! «Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperature since the mid- 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentra<ons» (IPCC, 2007)

5 Global effect in the world Temperatures: Average earth temperature can increase by 6.4 C in 2100 (IPCC, 2007) Precipita=ons: Precipita.ons paoerns more intense : droughts and floods

6 Modern coastline

7 Coastline +6m of sea level rise

8 Effects in Myanmar Droughts : Dry zone (10% land, 1/3 popula.on) : increase of water scarcity and fewer but more severe rains. Also other area Irrawaddy delta : sea rise level (3.1 mm/y in Asia) and decrease of river flow because of mel.ng of Himalaya's glaciers

9 Effects in Myanmar Increase in death toll caused by thunderstrikes (100 in one year) 10 to 15 tornados form annually since 2006 More extreme weather events Increase in extreme weather and disaster : already second most affected country in the world by climate risks (German Watch, 2014) Type of natural disaster Total no of events No of people affected Damages 000 US $ Earthquake Epidemic NA Flood Mass movement NA Storm Wildfire

10 Worldwide geopolitical consequences Stern review (2006) : the estimated costs of climate change without action would be 5% of global GDP each year from now massive change in global economic system. Refugees : up to 212 millions because of the sea rise level only in 2050 (Myers, 2010) and huge migrations because of desertification, permanent flooding of coastal regions, famines, decreased agricultural productivity, land degradation (droughts, storm surges, cyclones) Intern conflicts : pressures on resource alloca.on (funds, territory, food), intergroup tensions (ethnic, religious, migrants) caused by adverse consequences of climate change Inter states conflicts : exploita.on of weaknesses (interven.on, subversion), conflict over resources and land Reinforcement of rural- to- urban migra=ons because of problems in agriculture sector

11 Myanmar economic consequences Previsions of sea level rise : 3rd impacted country in SEA (un.l 4% of land, 12% of popula.on, 12% of GDP impacted with 5m of sea level rise) (WB, 2007) Recent urbaniza=on process, more sensi.ve to climate change (IPCC 2007) Impact on Yangon : 8th top world port city exposed to climate change in 2070 (0.5 m rise). Previsions ( people exposed and billion US $ of exposed assets) (OECD, 2005)

12 Myanmar social consequences Tensions : Unmi.gated Climate Change : Impeded development and increased poverty Tension on natural resources, space and food. Popula.on very sensi.ve (health, educa.on, agriculture and available infrastructure) strong impacts Arrival of clima.c refugees and migrants from Bangladesh : destabiliza.on of the bangladi state. Irrawaddy sources from Mali and Nmai rivers in or near China. Since 2004, this trend has worsen

13 Myanmar agricultural consequences Rice : 60% of total area cultivated in Myanmar. Decrease of 10% of rice yield associated with every 1 C of increase. May have 38% of decrease in 2100 because of cumulated factors (drought, salinity, rising sea levels, submergence) Agriculture : main sector (33.8% of population) huge impact on economy. Shift in regions producing rice Wetland rice Dryland rice

14 Different ways to reduce climate change effects Two different strategies : Mi=ga=on : reduc.on of the greenhouse gases emissions Adapta=on : management of the impacts of climate change One fundamental principle : address climate change with mi=ga=on and adapta=on strategies at the same =me even most dras.c reduc.ons can not avoid future effects of climate change adapta.on poten.ally infinite without reduc.on of emissions

15 Mi=ga=on strategies Origin of GHG in Myanmar : deforesta.on and CH4 from rice cul.va.on in flooded lands and dams BUT : absence of important industry and its development will release the major part of GHG avoid extrac.on of fossil fuels for other countries and intensive consuming development. decrease in net deforesta=on development of sustainable transport, green buildings, smart urban planning How? Development of renewable energies : - wind : poten.al of TWh/y - solar : TWh/y - geothermal - biomass

16 Mi=ga=on strategies Mi=ga=on of produc=on of CH4 by rice : different methods proposed : - - flood irriga.on intermioent irriga.on or alterna.ng dry- wet irriga.on - zero or no.llage and soil conserva.on - rice residues - urea deep placement - leaf color charts Development by government of na=onal climate change policy frameworks (ADP, 2009), create strong incen.ves for ac.on, raise public awareness of climate change

17 Adapta=on strategies: agriculture Different possible strategies : (FAO, 2010) : Selec.on of appropriate plan.ng date Use of tradi.onal varie.es with high resilience and breeding of new varie.es with higher temperature tolerance, resistance to salinity, drought and floods. Hybrids between different varie.es. Research into hydroponic seed produc.on technologies, aerobic rice varie.es, rainwater harves.ng Site- specific nutrient management (SSNM) Altera.on of farm management prac.ces System of rice intensifica.on Rice and integrated pest management

18 Adapta=on strategies: ci=es Issue at stake for Yangon: Avoiding the costs of adapta.on for other ci.es in SEA today, because of non appropriated development (World Bank, 2010) : Manila : billion US $ Bangkok : billion US $ HCMC : billion US $ Master planing should be elaborated by authori.es WITH a considera.on of climate change Bangkok port Ho Chi Minh City

19 Adapta=on strategies to disasters - Preven=on of disasters (floods, cyclones, droughts) and mechanism to manage them : Master Plan for Disaster Preparedness : Ac.on Plan on Disaster Risk Reduc.on, Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilita.on, NDPCC, Union of Myanmar (Asian Disaster Reduc.on Center, 2009) Na.onal disaster management rather than climate change adapta.on already done. - Development of infrastructures to resist to erosion of coast line and sea rise level : classic engineering (dykes, seawall) and ecological (reforesta.on of mangroves). In the land, promo.on of tradi.onal techniques of dykes. - Reinforcement of ins=tu=onal sepngs : capacity building, vulnerability assessment, cost- and- benefit analysis, integrated management strategies of natural resources impacted, na.onal strategies for adapta.on. Dyke protected by a Yaing Khway

20 II) Energy issues

21 Different renewable energies Solar energy Geothermy Wind Hydropower Biomass Large- scale hydropower? Small- scale hydropower!

22 Renewable energies: an - almost- worldwide consensus Fact 1: Worldwide investment in RNW has been mul=plied by 7 between 2004 and 2010: from 19 to 143 billion $/year Fact 2: Leading economies invest the most in renewable energies Fact 3: Challenging economies invest massively as well to have their share Rank: 1st Rank: 4st Rank: 3rd Rank: 2nd è Conclusion: skyrocke=ng new markets are being seized, and other countries might be missing a historical occasion

23 The reasons for this enthousiasm (UNEP, 2010) Energy poverty 1.4 billion people are currently lacking access to electricity and 2.7 billion people depend on tradi.onal biomass for cooking Climate change Annual global cost of adap.ng to Climate Change in 2030 will equal to 110 billion $, half of this cost being supported by developing countries Energy security OPEC s share in the world oil market is going to rise from 44% in 2008 to 52% in 2030 Aner the current Oil Peak, the cost of fossil fuel is going to drama.cally increase Impacts on energy technologies on health and ecosystems Air pollu.on from burning solid fuel is the 2 nd largest environmental contributor to health problems In the US, it costs 120 billion $ a year in health problems Job opportuni=es In Asia, employment in RNW grew by 14%/ year between 2007 and 2009 RNW generates 3.mes more jobs per MW than conven.onal sources

24 Myanmar poten=al for hydropower 4 main rivers : Ayeyarwaddy, Chindwin, Thanlwin and SiOaung Poten.al of 100,000 MW Iden.fied by MEPE : 20 loca.ons and MW Today : 320 MW installed : less than 1% Hydropower potential by river basin

25 Hydropower: a double- edged technology Biggest in the world 2335 m long and 140 m high MW Expected 84 TW h per year Huge human cost (>1.8 million people displaced) and monetary (>25 milliards $US) Huge environmental impacts The same for the mythic and iconic Irrawaddy River, source of Burmese civilization? NO!

26 Small hydropower: a promising technology Recent projects of development of small hydropower Past 5 years : 26 micro and 9 mini- hydropower projects developed by MEPE Installed capacity : 24 kw to 5000 kw To improve social and economic condi.ons of poor rural households and remote communi.es To improve agricultural produc.vity

27 Biomass is widely used in Myanmar Today : 2/3 of primary energy in Myanmar Almost 50% of biomass energy from wood, and mostly harvested from natural forests Current development of crops for biofuel BUT compe..on for land with agriculture and natural habitats prefer small- scale projects Over past 10 years, 152 community- based biogas digesters (5 25 kw) : 172 villages with 45 hours of electricity / day

28 Biogas fits for Myanmar Many poten.al uses of biogas : cooking, ligh.ng, preserva.on of grains, prepara.on of fodder, driver internal combus.on engine Integra.ve farm systems are also possible : Community size biogas plant established

29 Inspiring success story: Biogas in Dagoondaing village, Yangon region Method: using rice residues (rice husk, 20% paddy) in rice mills for steam engine in motors or diesel engines Case study : rice husks gasifier Project in Dagoondaing Village, Yangon Region Results: - 50 KWh generated households targeted Rice husk gasifier used for water pump at Meik- h<- lar Township, Mandalay Division

30 Inspiring succes story: Tunisia s Solar Energy Plan To be less dependent on energy imports, the Government of Tunisia passed in 2004 a law on energy management combined with a funding mechanisms Results: - With an ini=al investment of 260 million $, 1.3 billion $ has been saved in energy expenditures between 2005 and Decrease in conven=onal sources of energy of 20% in Savings in energy imports = 20% / year

31 Inspiring succes story: Grameen Shak= programme in Bangladesh Founded in 1996, this programme provides electricity to rural communi.es through micro- credit. Capitalizing on the network of the Grameen Bank, it provides son credit to make solar- home systems (SHS) Results: - Grameen Shak= succedeed in installing SHSs by December High contribu=on in poverty allevia=on - Increased yields of these communi=es

32 Energy efficiency

33 Reduc=on of energy consump=on with increased efficiency Huge losses because of energy non- efficiency more CO2 released! money lost! In general, we can save: - 70% to 90% of the energy and cost for ligh.ng, fan, and pump systems - 50% for electric motors - 60% in hea.ng, cooling, office equipment, and appliances Compact fluorescent lights - 1/3 the energy of incandescent lights - last 6 to 10.mes longer. Improved cook stoves - Save 30% wood and charcoal - Build locally - Avoid deforesta.on 2,000,000 have been distributed by GERES

34 Energy efficiency depends on innova=on in supply and demand chain Re- design products So that the same func.onality is delivered with less materials and energy Subs=tute Green inputs for brown inputs wherever possible. E.g. :Introduce biomass as a source of chemical feedstocks Recycle Internal process wastes E.g. :Introduce Combined Heat and Power (CHP) if there is a local market for electricity surplus

35 Closed- loop, circular systems in manufacturing Wastes from certain manufacturing opera=ons can be use as raw materials for others! Example: Kalundborg (Denmark): - An oil refinery that produces low temperature waste heat (warm water) is used for greenhouses supplying organic raw materials for a drug company that manufactures insulin - There is a coal- burning power plant from which desulfuriza.on wastes are used by a wallboard manufacturer

36 Thank you!