Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie. Richard P. Stumpf NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Silver Spring, MD

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie. Richard P. Stumpf NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Silver Spring, MD"

Arnold Nigel McKinney
5 years ago
Views:

1 Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie Richard P. Stumpf NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Silver Spring, MD Lake Erie 22 July 2011

2 2011 cyanobacteria bloom, worst in decades, visible from space 2003, perhaps the most severe in Lake Erie s recent history (EPA) 09 October : Data from MERIS (European Space Agency)

3 2012 bloom wasn t. 10 September, data from MODIS

4 Potential (Large) Areas of Concern in Great Lakes Green Bay Saginaw Bay 10 4 low 2008 bloom intensity high 10 5 cells ml Western Lake Erie

5 ENVISAT-1 MERIS on the ENVISAT-1 satellite 1150 km Coverage every 2 days from 2002 to April 2012 launch of replacement (Sentinel-3) late next year

6 satellite algorithms (MERIS data) Standard blue-green algorithms are sensitive to absorption by many components. We use Red/NIR and curvature (shape); insensitive to sediment and CDOM

7 MERIS can see more wavelengths of light, allowing us to detect and quantify blooms 13 Sep 2010 True color, difficult to identify and quantify Red and near-infrared wavelengths help

8 This information gives a cyanobacteria index, CI, which equates to concentration 13 Sep 2010 True color 10 4 low Cyano Index (CI) high 10 5 cells ml

9 Bulletins for Lake Erie bloom To get bulletin, search for NOAA Lake Erie bloom bulletin Transports with the NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System

Annual blooms from the worst 30-day period, MERIS 2002-2011; MODIS 2012 WHO

10 Annual blooms from the worst 30-day period, MERIS ; MODIS 2012 WHO risk threshold MODIS Log-scaled display Modified from Stumpf et al., 2012 PLoSONE

11 Bloom severity over 11 years from satellite; sum of concentrations in western Lake Erie CI of 1 ~ cells Microcystis

12 Cyanobacteria like warm water; strong growth > 20ºC; minimal growth < 15ºC Paerl et al., 2011 (Science of the Total Environment)

13 Climatologic Temperatures in Lake Erie Excellent growth Good growth cool Too cold

14 Temperature gives season but not-interannual (avg temperature over western basin) Years with small bloom Years with large bloom 2011 Stumpf et al., 2012 PLoSONE

15 Excessive phosphorus promotes cyano blooms Downing et al., 2001; Can.J.Fish.Auat.Sci.

16 Use Maumee River Discharge to make seasonal predictions; largest tributary to Lake Erie. Toledo Dayton USGS Ohio Fact sheet FS )

17 Understand blooms with nutrient load data 30+ year program measuring nutrients in Ohio rivers (Pete Richards, Dave Baker have led that effort) National Center for Water Quality Research

18 Dissolved phosphorus, has a trend but much variability Data from Pete Richards

19 Total phosphorus follows discharge; Spring (Mar-Jun). Maumee River total phosphorus (m.tons) Maumee River average discharge (m 3 /s)

20 Spring loads matter. Models predict CI (bloom severity) from spring discharge & loads. See Stumpf et al., PLoSONE 2012 Q model (based on Q-P correlation) Stumpf et al Experimental SRP- Q model CI

21 2012 seasonal forecast 2012 calls for a smaller bloom of the cyanobacteria HAB this summer, compared to recent severe blooms. Last year s [2011] bloom, one of the largest in decades, covered an area the size of Long Island Sound. This year s [2012] mild bloom is expected to about one-tenth the size of last year s.

22 Observed against model (and 2012 forecast) 2012 mild, but not as mild as model predicted observed modeled 2012 forecast

23 2012: Unusual in several ways. Follows 2011 (which was nearly 3x more intense than the next worst bloom) 09 October : Data from MERIS (European Space Agency)

24 And other unusual events, cyano bloom in central basin in early July (!) disconnected from western basin 10 July 2012 (bloom identified by Ohio EPA)

25 2012 had no ice 16 February, MODIS (from NASA Rapidfire)

26 This has happened before preceding both non-bloom years (2002 & 2005), and a bloom year (1998). (graph from Wang et al., 2012 J.Climate, Ice cover sq km) bloom No-bloom 1998 was predicted by spring load model

27 Lots of unusual climate in anomalous spring diatom bloom (water supply problems) Anomalous early July central basin bloom wet winter Follows biggest bloom ever (remarkably, that hasn t happened previously in any years) no ice

28 2013: model uses Maumee River spring loads (2013 load falls between 2012 & 2011) average discharge based on USGS data (m 3 /s) dissolved phosphorus load (m.tons) Maumee River total phosphorus (m.tons) 2013 Maumee River average discharge (m 3 /s) total phosphorus load (m.tons) Data from National Center for Water Quality Research

29 2013 Forecast: Significant bloom. similar to 2003, much milder than

30 2013 prediction for western Lake Erie significant bloom but 1/5 of Definitely a significant bloom. Severity to be calculated this winter for comparison 2013 on Sep 10 low medium high concentration

31 Climate patterns We can estimate bloom severity. This allows for models of impacts under future scenarios (assuming other things don t change, like invasive species, etc.) Spring load matters; caused by runoff and discharge. Precip, snow melt, etc. influence nutrient runoff. Temperature allows for blooms, but does not drive size (yet). Longer hot periods, longer blooms. >20 ºC: bloom appears; persists until <15 ºC.

32 Planning for climate change and variability will help the task of restoring and maintaining a Great Lake Assistance from NASA Decision Support, Public Health NNH08ZDA001N Photo from Gibraltar Island, Ohio Sea Grant

Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie

An update on Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie Thomas Bridgeman University of Toledo November 8, 2013 Outline Introduction, History and Lake Erie HABs 2002-2013 HAB forecast and early warning tools Ohio