4.6 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Transcription

1 4.6 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Intrductin This sectin discusses existing glbal, natinal, and statewide GHG and climate change cnditins, and it evaluates the ptential glbal climate impacts frm develpment under the prpsed 2014 LRDP. The sectin identifies the applicable federal, state, reginal, and lcal agencies that regulate, mnitr, and cntrl GHG emissins. The prpsed prject GHG emissins calculatins, estimates, and supprting technical data are in Appendix B. Public and agency NOP cmments related t greenhuse gas emissins are summarized belw: The RBC develpment shuld reduce its vehicle miles traveled per capita as much as pssible. Bicycling shuld be emphasized as an imprtant transit ptin. A plan and strategies t reduce greenhuse gas emissins frm transprtatin t and frm the new campus shuld be prepared. The hst city s climate actin plan (CAP) shuld be analyzed and respected in the RBC design. The RBC develpment shuld minimize ttal vehicle miles traveled (VMT) generated by inter-campus travel, especially by private autmbile. The RBC develpment shuld minimize ttal VMT generated by wrkers cmmuting by private vehicles, especially frm sl driving alng freeway crridrs. The RBC develpment shuld prvide significant access t bth reginal and lcal transit and cntribute t general imprvements in lcal and reginal transit infrastructure t ffset any increase in prject-related VMT. The RBC develpment shuld recmmend affirmative ideas and effective prgrams t encurage dense wrker husing near new RBC jbs; the prpsed prject shuld als ensure that the hst city r cities have an adequately supprtive certified Husing Element in their general plans. The RBC develpment shuld supprt meaningful traffic demand management prgrams such as car share and vanpling. The RBC develpment shuld reduce the predminance f free emplyee parking by under-sizing parking facilities cmpared with traditinal ffice-park standards. The RBC develpment shuld avid the cllateral cnstructin f attractr shpping malls r similar develpments that encurage mre reginal VMT. The University shuld cmply with the CAPs that all f the ptential hst cities have separately been implementing. The prpsed prject shuld als incrprate the Califrnia state gals and plicies intended t reduce greenhuse gases and encurage cmplete cmmunities, cnsistent with Senate Bill (SB) 275 and Assembly Bill (AB) 32. The RBC develpment shuld mesh its bicycle/pedestrian netwrk seamlessly with the Bay Trail and ther surrunding access pints. The RBC develpment shuld prvide secure, indr bicycle strage fr emplyees wh cmmute by bicycle and bike-sharing facilities at cnvenient lcatins s that visitrs and emplyees may brrw RBC bicycles fr running errands, visiting nearby retail stres and restaurants, r recreating during wrk breaks

2 4.6.2 Envirnmental Setting Backgrund Glbal climate change refers t any significant change in climate measurements, such as temperature, precipitatin, r wind, lasting fr an extended perid (i.e., decades r lnger) (EPA 2008a). Climate change may result frm: Natural factrs, such as changes in the sun s intensity r slw changes in the Earth s rbit arund the sun; Natural prcesses in the climate system (e.g., changes in cean circulatin, reductin in sunlight frm the additin f atmspheric gases and particles frm vlcanic eruptins, frest fires, etc.); and Human activities that change the atmsphere s cmpsitin (e.g., thrugh burning fssil fuels) and the land surface (e.g., defrestatin, refrestatin, urbanizatin, and desertificatin). The primary effect f glbal climate change has been a rise in the average glbal trpspheric 26 temperature f 0.2 degree Celsius ( C) per decade, determined frm meterlgical measurements wrldwide between 1990 and Climate change mdeling using 2000 emissin rates shws that further warming is likely t ccur, which wuld induce further changes in the glbal climate system during the current century (IPCC 2007). Changes t the glbal climate system and ecsystems, and specifically the changes in Califrnia, culd include: Declining sea ice and muntain snwpack levels, thereby increasing sea levels and sea surface evapratin rates with a crrespnding increase in trpspheric water vapr due t the atmsphere s ability t hld mre water vapr at higher temperatures (IPCC 2007); Rising average glbal sea levels primarily due t thermal expansin and the melting f glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (mdel-based prjectins f glbal average sea level rise at the end f the 21st century ( ) range frm 0.18 meter t 0.59 meter r 0.59 ft t 1.94 feet) (IPCC 2007); Changing weather patterns, including changes t precipitatin, cean salinity, and wind patterns, and mre energetic aspects f extreme weather including drughts, heavy precipitatin, heat waves, extreme cld, and the intensity f trpical cyclnes (IPCC 2007); Declining Sierra snwpack levels, which accunt fr apprximately half f the surface water strage in Califrnia, by 70 percent t as much as 90 percent ver the next 100 years (Cal/EPA 2006); Increasing the number f days cnducive t trpspheric zne frmatin by 25 t 85 percent (depending n the future temperature scenari) in high zne areas in suthern Califrnia and the San Jaquin Valley by the end f the 21st century (Cal/EPA 2006); Increasing the ptential fr Califrnia s castline ersin and sea water intrusin int the Sacrament and San Jaquin Delta and assciated levee systems frm the rise in sea level (Cal/EPA 2006); 26 The trpsphere is the bttm layer f the atmsphere, which varies in height frm the Earth s surface frm 6 t 7 miles)

3 Increasing pest infestatin, making Califrnia mre susceptible t frest fires (Cal/EPA 2006); Increasing electricity demand by 1 t 3 percent by 2020 due t rising temperatures; this wuld result in hundreds f millins f dllars in extra expenditures (Cal/EPA 2006); and Summer warming prjectins in the first 30 years f the 21st century ranging frm abut 0.5 t 2 C (0.9 t 3.6 F) and by the last 30 years f the 21st century, frm abut 1.5 t 5.8 C (2.7 t 10.5 F) (Cal/EPA 2006). The natural prcess thrugh which heat is retained in the trpsphere is called the greenhuse effect. The greenhuse effect traps heat in the trpsphere thrugh a threefld prcess: (1) shrtwave radiatin in the frm f visible light emitted by the sun is absrbed by the earth as heat; (2) lng-wave radiatin is re-emitted by the earth; and (3) greenhuse gases in the upper atmsphere absrb r trap the lng-wave radiatin and re-emit it back tward the earth and int space. This third prcess is the fcus f current climate change actins. Gases that absrb r trap lng-wave radiatin are called greenhuse gases because f their rle in prducing the greenhuse effect. While water vapr and carbn dixide (CO 2 ) are the mst abundant GHGs, ther trace GHGs have a greater ability t absrb and re-radiate lng-wave radiatin. T gauge the ptency f GHGs in intercepting lng-wave radiatin, scientists have established a Glbal Warming Ptential (GWP) fr each GHG based n its ability t absrb and re-emit lng-wave radiatin ver a specific time perid. The GWP f a gas is determined using carbn dixide as the reference gas, with a GWP f 1 ver 100 years (IPCC 1996). 27 Fr example, a gas with a GWP f 10 is 10 times mre ptent than carbn dixide ver 100 years. The use f GWP allws GHG emissins t be reprted using carbn dixide as a baseline. The sum f each GHG multiplied by its assciated GWP is referred t as carbn dixide equivalent (CO 2 e). This essentially means that 1 metric tn f a GHG with a GWP f 10 has the same climate change impacts as 10 metric tns f carbn dixide. Greenhuse Gases State law defines GHGs t include: Carbn Dixide (CO 2 ). Anthrpgenic, r human-caused carbn dixide primarily is generated by fssil fuel cmbustin frm statinary and mbile surces. Due t the emergence f industrial facilities and mbile surces ver the past 250 years, the cncentratin f carbn dixide in the atmsphere has increased 35 percent (US EPA 2008b). Carbn dixide is the mst widely emitted GHG and is the reference gas (GWP f 1) fr determining the GWP f ther GHGs. In 2004, 82.8 percent f Califrnia s GHG emissins were carbn dixide (CEC 2007). Methane (CH 4 ). Methane is emitted frm bigenic surces (i.e., resulting frm the activity f living rganisms), incmplete cmbustin in frest fires, landfills, manure management, and leaks in natural gas pipelines. In the United States, the tp three surces f methane are landfills, natural gas systems, and enteric fermentatin (EPA n.d.[a]). Methane is the primary cmpnent f natural gas used fr space and water heating, steam prductin, and pwer generatin. The GWP f methane is 21. Nitrus Oxide (N 2 O). Nitrus xide is prduced by natural and human-related surces. Primary human-related surces include agricultural sil management, animal manure 27 All Glbal Warming Ptentials are given as 100-year values

4 management, sewage treatment, mbile and statinary cmbustin f fssil fuel, adipic acid prductin, and nitric acid prductin. The GWP f nitrus xide is 310. Hydrflurcarbns (HFCs). HFCs typically are used as refrigerants in bth statinary refrigeratin and mbile air cnditining. HFC use fr cling and fam blwing is grwing, particularly as chlrflurcarbns (CFCs) and hydrchlrflurcarbns (HCFCs) use is phasing ut. The GWP f HFCs ranges frm 140 fr HFC-152a t 6,300 fr HFC-236fa. Perflurcarbns (PFCs). Perflurcarbns are cmpunds cnsisting f carbn and flurine. They are primarily an aluminum prductin and semicnductr manufacturing byprduct. PFCs are ptent GHGs with a GWP several thusand times that f carbn dixide, depending n the specific PFC. Anther area f cncern regarding PFCs is their lng atmspheric lifetime (up t 50,000 years) (Energy Infrmatin Administratin 2007). The GWPs f PFCs range frm 5,700 t 11,900. Sulfur Hexafluride (SF 6 ). Sulfur hexafluride is a clrless, drless, nntxic, nnflammable gas. It is mst cmmnly used as an electrical insulatr in high vltage equipment that transmits and distributes electricity. Sulfur hexafluride is the mst ptent GHG that has been evaluated by the United Natins Intergvernmental Panel n Climate Change (IPCC) with a GWP f 23,900. Hwever, its glbal warming cntributin is nt as high as the GWP wuld indicate due t its lw mixing rati, as cmpared t carbn dixide (4 parts per trillin in 1990 versus 365 ppm f CO 2 ) (EPA n.d.[b]). Cntributins t Greenhuse Gas Emissins Glbal Wrldwide anthrpgenic (man-made) GHG emissins are tracked fr industrialized natins (referred t as Annex I) and develping natins (referred t as Nn-Annex I). Man-made GHG emissins fr Annex I natins are available thrugh Man-made GHG emissins fr Nn- Annex I natins are available thrugh The sum f these emissins ttaled apprximately 42,133 millin metric tns f CO 2 e (MMTCO 2 e). 28 Glbal emissins inventry data are nt all frm the same year and may vary depending n the surce f the emissins inventry data. 29 The tp five cuntries and the Eurpean Unin accunted fr apprximately 55 percent f the ttal glbal GHG emissins accrding t the mst recently available data. United States The United States was the number tw prducer f glbal GHG emissins as f 2007, the mst current year f IPCC Assessment reprting. The primary GHG emitted by human activities in the United States was CO 2, representing apprximately 84 percent f ttal GHG emissins (EPA 2008a). Carbn dixide frm fssil fuel cmbustin, the largest surce f GHG emissins, accunted fr apprximately 80 percent f US GHG emissins (EPA 2008a). 28 The CO2 equivalent emissins cmmnly are expressed as millin metric tns f carbn dixide equivalent (MMTCO 2 e). The carbn dixide equivalent fr a gas is derived by multiplying the tns f the gas by the assciated GWP, such that MMTCO 2 e = [millin metric tns f a GHG] x [GWP f the GHG]. Fr example, the GWP fr methane is 21. This means that the emissin f ne millin metric tns f methane is equivalent t the emissin f 21 millin metric tns f CO The glbal emissins are the sum f Annex I and nn-annex I cuntries, withut cunting land use, land-use change and frestry (LULUCF). Fr cuntries withut 2005 data, the UNFCCC data fr the mst recent year were used. United Natins Framewrk Cnventin n Climate Change, Annex I Parties GHG ttal withut LULUCF, items/3841.php and Flexible GHG Data Queries with selectins fr ttal GHG emissins excluding LULUCF/LUCF, all years, and nn-annex I cuntries, shwprjectin. n.d

5 State f Califrnia ARB cmpiles GHG inventries fr the State f Califrnia. Based n the 2008 GHG inventry data (i.e., the latest year fr which data are available), Califrnia emitted 474 MMTCO 2 e including emissins frm imprted electrical pwer in 2008 (ARB 2010). Based n the ARB inventry data and GHG inventries cmpiled by the Wrld Resurces Institute, Califrnia s ttal statewide GHG emissins rank secnd in the United States (Texas is number ne) with emissins f 417 MMTCO 2 e excluding emissins related t imprted pwer (ARB 2010). The primary cntributrs t GHG emissins in Califrnia are transprtatin, electric pwer prductin frm bth in-state and ut-f-state surces, industry, agriculture and frestry, and ther surces, including cmmercial and residential activities. Between 1990 and 2008, the ppulatin f Califrnia grew by apprximately 7.3 millin (frm 29.8 t 37.9 millin) (US Census 2009). This represents an increase f apprximately 27.2 percent frm 1990 ppulatin levels. In additin, the Califrnia ecnmy, measured as grss state prduct, grew frm $788 billin in 1990 t $1.8 trillin in 2008 representing an increase f apprximately 128 percent (mre than twice the 1990 grss state prduct) (Califrnia Department f Finance 2009). Despite the ppulatin and ecnmic grwth, Califrnia s net GHG emissins grew nly by apprximately 11 percent. The Califrnia Energy Cmmissin (CEC) attributes the slw rate f grwth t the success f Califrnia s renewable energy prgrams and its cmmitment t clean air and clean energy (CEC 2006a) Regulatry Cnsideratins Federal In Massachusetts vs. EPA, the Supreme Curt held that the EPA has the statutry authrity under Sectin 202 f the CAA t regulate GHGs frm new mtr vehicles. The curt did nt hld that the EPA was required t regulate GHG emissins; hwever, it indicated that the agency must decide whether GHGs frm mtr vehicles cause r cntribute t air pllutin that is reasnably anticipated t endanger public health r welfare. Upn the final decisin, the President signed Executive Order n May 14, 2007, directing the EPA, alng with the Departments f Transprtatin, Energy, and Agriculture, t initiate a regulatry prcess that respnds t the Supreme Curt s decisin. In December 2007, the President signed the Energy Independence and Security Act f 2007, which sets a mandatry Renewable Fuel Standard requiring fuel prducers t use at least 36 billin gallns f bifuel in The Act als sets a natinal fuel ecnmy standard f 35 miles per galln by The Act cntains prvisins fr energy efficiency in lighting and appliances and fr green building technlgy implementatin in federal buildings. On July 11, 2008, the EPA issued an Advanced Ntice f Prpsed Rulemaking n regulating GHGs under the CAA. The Advanced Ntice f Prpsed Rulemaking reviews the varius CAA prvisins that may be applicable t the regulatin f GHGs and presents ptential regulatry appraches and technlgies fr reducing GHG emissins. On April 10, 2009, the EPA published the Prpsed Mandatry Greenhuse Gas Reprting Rule in the Federal Register (EPA 2009). The rule was adpted n September 22, 2009 and cvers the apprximately 10,000 facilities natinwide that accunt fr 85 percent f US GHG emissins. On September 15, 2009, the EPA and the Department f Transprtatin s (DOT) Natinal Highway Traffic Safety Administratin jintly established a natinal prgram that set new standards t reduce GHG emissins and imprve fuel ecnmy; these standards apply t mdel year 2012 thrugh 2016 light-duty vehicles. The prpsed standards wuld be phased in and wuld require passenger cars and light-duty trucks t cmply with a declining emissins standard. In 2012, passenger cars and light-duty trucks had t meet an average standard f 295 grams f 4-130

6 CO 2 per mile and 30.1 miles per galln. By 2016, the vehicles wuld have t meet an average standard f 250 grams f CO 2 per mile and 35.5 miles per galln. 30 These standards were frmally adpted by the EPA and DOT n April 1, On Octber 5, 2009, the President signed Executive Order that prvides a strategy fr sustainability and greenhuse gas reductins fr federal agencies. The Executive Order has a number f requirements fr agencies t achieve, including: Setting a GHG emissins reductin target t be achieved by 2020, 50 percent recycling and waste diversin by 2015, Drafting a sustainability plan, Reprting GHG emissins, and 30 percent reductin in petrleum cnsumptin in agency fleets by On December 7, 2009, the EPA Administratr signed tw distinct findings regarding GHGs under sectin 202(a) f the CAA: Endangerment Finding: The Administratr finds that the current and prjected cncentratins f the six key well-mixed GHGs (carbn dixide, methane, nitrus xide, hydrflurcarbns, perflurcarbns, and sulfur hexafluride) in the atmsphere threaten the public health and welfare f current and future generatins. Cause r Cntribute Finding: The Administratr finds that the cmbined emissins f these well-mixed greenhuse gases frm new mtr vehicles and new mtr vehicle engines cntribute t the greenhuse gas pllutin which threatens public health and welfare. While these findings d nt impse additinal requirements n industry r ther entities, this actin was a prerequisite t finalizing the EPA and DOT jintly prpsed GHG emissins standards fr light-duty vehicles. On April 1, 2010, the EPA and Natinal Highway Traffic Safety Administratin issued final rules requiring that by the 2016 mdel-year, manufacturers must achieve a cmbined average vehicle emissin level f 250 grams f CO 2 per mile, which is equivalent t 35.5 miles per galln as measured by EPA standards. These agencies are currently in the prcess f develping similar regulatins fr the mdel years. State Title 24 Building Standards Cde The Califrnia Energy Cmmissin first adpted Energy Efficiency Standards fr Residential and Nnresidential Buildings (Califrnia Cde f Regulatins, Title 24, Part 6) in 1978 in respnse t a legislative mandate t reduce statewide energy cnsumptin. Althugh nt riginally intended t reduce GHG emissins, increased energy efficiency and reduced electricity, natural gas, and ther fuels cnsumptin wuld result in fewer GHG emissins frm buildings subject t the standards. The standards are updated peridically t allw fr the cnsideratin and inclusin f new energy efficiency technlgies and methds. The latest revisins were adpted in 2008 and became effective n January 1, The CO2 emissin standards and fuel ecnmy standards stated are based n EPA frmulas

7 Part 11 f the Title 24 Building Standards Cde is referred t as the Califrnia Green Building Standards Cde (CALGreen Cde). The purpse f the CALGreen Cde is t imprve public health, safety and general welfare by enhancing the design and cnstructin f buildings thrugh the use f building cncepts having a psitive envirnmental impact and encuraging sustainable cnstructin practices in these categries: (1) planning and design, (2) energy efficiency, (3) water efficiency and cnservatin, (4) material cnservatin and resurce efficiency, and (5) envirnmental air quality (Califrnia Building Standards Cmmissin 2009). The CALGreen Cde is nt intended t substitute fr r be identified as meeting the certificatin requirements f any green building prgram that is nt established and adpted by the Califrnia Building Standards Cmmissin (CBSC). The CBSC released a 2010 Draft Califrnia Green Building Standards Cde n its website (Califrnia Building Standards Cmmissin 2010). The update t Part 11 f the Title 24 Building Standards Cde became effective n January 1, Unless therwise nted in the regulatin, all newly cnstructed buildings in Califrnia are subject t the requirements f the CALGreen Cde. Assembly Bill 1493 In respnse t the transprtatin sectr s cntributin f mre than half f Califrnia s CO 2 emissins, AB 1493 was enacted n July 22, AB 1493 requires ARB t set GHG emissin standards fr passenger vehicles, light-duty trucks, and ther vehicles whse primary use is nncmmercial persnal transprtatin. ARB adpted the standards in September The new standards will be phased in during the mdel years. When fully phased in, the near term ( ) standards will result in a reductin f abut 22 percent in GHG emissins cmpared t the emissins frm the 2002 fleet, while the midterm ( ) standards will result in a reductin f abut 30 percent. Befre these regulatins may g int effect, the EPA must grant Califrnia a waiver under the federal CAA that rdinarily preempts state regulatin f mtr vehicle emissin standards. On June 30, 2009, the EPA frmally apprved Califrnia s waiver request. In light f the September 15, 2009 annuncement by the EPA and Natinal Highway Traffic Safety Administratin regarding the natinal prgram t reduce vehicle GHG emissins, Califrnia and states adpting Califrnia emissins standards have agreed t defer t the prpsed natinal standard thrugh mdel year 2016 if granted a waiver by the EPA. The 2016 endpint f the tw standards is similar, althugh the natinal standard ramps up slightly mre slwly than required under the Califrnia standards. The Pavley standards require additinal reductins in CO 2 emissins beynd 2016 (referred t as Phase II standards). While the Phase II standards have yet t be fully develped, ARB has made it clear that the state intends t pursue additinal reductins frm mtr vehicles in the 2017 thrugh 2020 timeframe under the Califrnia Glbal Warming Slutins Act f 2006 r AB 32, discussed in detail belw. Executive Order S-3-05 and the Climate Actin Team In June 2005, Gvernr Schwarzenegger established Califrnia s GHG emissins reductin targets in Executive Order S The Executive Order established these targets: GHG emissins shuld be reduced t 2000 levels by 2010, 1990 levels by 2020, and 80 percent belw 1990 levels by The Secretary f the Califrnia Envirnmental Prtectin Agency (Cal/EPA) is required t crdinate effrts f varius agencies t cllectively and efficiently reduce GHGs. Sme f the agency representatives invlved in the GHG reductin plan include the Secretary f the Business, Transprtatin and Husing Agency; the Secretary f the Department f Fd and Agriculture; the Secretary f the Resurces Agency; the Chairpersn f ARB; the Chairpersn f the CEC; and the President f the Public Utilities Cmmissin. Representatives frm each f the afrementined agencies cmprise the Climate Actin Team. The Cal/EPA secretary is required t submit a biannual prgress reprt frm the Climate Actin 4-132

8 Team t the gvernr and state legislature disclsing the prgress made tward GHG emissin reductin targets. Anther biannual reprt must be submitted illustrating the impacts f glbal warming n Califrnia s water supply, public health, agriculture, castline, and frests, and reprting pssible mitigatin and adaptatin plans t cmbat these impacts. Sme strategies currently being implemented by state agencies include ARB s vehicle climate change standards and diesel anti-idling measures, the CEC s building and appliance efficiency standards, and Cal/EPA s green building initiative. The Climate Actin Team als recmmends future emissin reductin strategies, such as using nly lw-gwp refrigerants in new vehicles, develping ethanl as an alternative fuel, refrestatin, slar pwer initiatives fr hmes and businesses, and investr-wned utility energy efficiency prgrams. Accrding t the reprt, implementatin f current and future emissin reductin strategies has the ptential t achieve the gals in Executive Order S Assembly Bill 32 In furtherance f the gals established in Executive Order S-3-05, the legislature enacted AB 32, the Califrnia Glbal Warming Slutins Act f 2006 that Gvernr Schwarzenegger signed n September 27, AB 32 represents the first enfrceable statewide prgram t limit GHG emissins frm all majr industries with penalties fr nncmpliance. AB 32 requires the state t undertake several actins; the majr requirements are discussed belw. ARB Early Actin Measures. ARB is respnsible fr carrying ut and develping the prgrams and requirements necessary t achieve the gal f AB 32 the reductin f Califrnia's GHG emissins t 1990 levels by The first actin under AB 32 resulted in ARB s adptin f a reprt listing three specific early-actin greenhuse gas emissin reductin measures n June 21, On Octber 25, 2007, ARB apprved six additinal early-actin GHG reductin measures under AB 32. ARB has adpted regulatins fr all early actin measures. The early-actin measures are divided int three categries: Grup 1 GHG rules fr immediate adptin and implementatin Grup 2 Several additinal GHG measures under develpment Grup 3 Air pllutin cntrls with ptential climate c-benefits The riginal three adpted early-actin regulatins meeting the narrw legal definitin f discrete early-actin GHG reductin measures include: A lw-carbn fuel standard t reduce the carbn intensity f Califrnia fuels; Reductin f refrigerant lsses frm mtr vehicle air cnditining system maintenance t restrict the sale f d-it-yurself autmtive refrigerants; and Increased methane capture frm landfills t require brader use f state-f-the-art methane capture technlgies. The six additinal early-actin regulatins adpted n Octber 25, 2007, als meeting the narrw legal definitin f discrete early-actin GHG reductin measures, are: Reductin f aerdynamic drag, and thereby fuel cnsumptin, frm existing trucks and trailers thrugh retrfit technlgy; Reductin f auxiliary engine emissins f dcked ships by requiring prt electrificatin; Reductin f perflurcarbns frm the semicnductr industry; 4-133

9 Reductin f prpellants in cnsumer prducts (e.g., aersls, tire inflatrs, and dust remval prducts); The requirement that all tune-up, smg check, and il change mechanics ensure prper tire inflatin as part f verall service t maintain fuel efficiency; and Restrictin n the use f sulfur hexafluride frm nn-electricity sectrs if viable alternatives are available. State f Califrnia Greenhuse Gas Inventry and 2020 Limit. As required under AB 32, n December 6, 2007, ARB apprved the 1990 greenhuse gas emissins inventry, thereby establishing the emissins limit fr The 2020 emissins limit was set at 427 MMTCO 2 e. ARB als prjected the state s 2020 GHG emissins under business as usual cnditins that is, emissins that wuld ccur withut any plans, plicies, r regulatins t reduce GHG emissins. ARB used an average f the state s GHG emissins frm 2002 thrugh 2004 and prjected the 2020 levels based n ppulatin and ecnmic frecasts. The prjected net emissins ttaled apprximately 596 MMTCO 2 e. Therefre, the state must reduce its 2020 business as usual emissins by apprximately 29 percent t meet the 1990 target. The inventry revealed that in 1990, transprtatin, with 35 percent f the state's ttal emissins, was the largest single sectr, fllwed by industrial emissins, 24 percent; imprted electricity, 14 percent; in-state electricity generatin, 11 percent; residential uses, 7 percent; agriculture, 5 percent; and cmmercial uses, 3 percent. AB 32 des nt require individual sectrs t meet their individual 1990 GHG emissins levels; the ttal statewide emissins are required t meet the 1990 threshld by AB 32 Climate Change Scping Plan. AB 32 requires ARB t adpt a scping plan indicating hw reductins in significant GHG surces will be achieved thrugh regulatins, market mechanisms, and ther actins. After receiving public input n their draft scping plan, the ARB Gverning Bard apprved the Climate Change Scping Plan n December 11, Key elements f the Scping Plan include these recmmendatins: Expanding and strengthening existing energy efficiency prgrams and building and appliance standards; Achieving a statewide renewable energy mix f 33 percent; Develping a Califrnia cap-and-trade prgram that links with ther Western Climate Initiative partner prgrams t create a reginal market system; Establishing targets fr transprtatin-related GHG emissins fr regins thrughut Califrnia and pursuing plicies and incentives t achieve thse targets; Adpting and implementing measures pursuant t existing state laws and plicies, including Califrnia s clean car standards, gds mvement measures, and the Lw Carbn Fuel Standard; and Creating targeted fees, including a public gds charge n water use, fees n high glbal warming ptential gases, and a fee t fund the administrative csts f the state s lngterm cmmitment t AB 32 implementatin. Under the Scping Plan, apprximately 85 percent f the state s emissins are subject t a capand-trade prgram where cvered sectrs are placed under a declining emissins cap. The emissins cap incrprates a margin f safety whereas the 2020 emissins limit will still be achieved even if uncapped sectrs d nt fully meet their anticipated emissin reductins

10 Emissins reductins will be achieved thrugh regulatry requirements and the ptin t reduce emissins further r purchase allwances t cver cmpliance bligatins. It is expected that emissin reductin frm this cap-and-trade prgram will accunt fr a large prtin f the reductins required by AB 32. Senate Bill 97 (CEQA Guidelines) In August 2007, the legislature enacted SB 97 (Duttn) that directed the Gvernr s Office f Planning and Research (OPR) t develp guidelines under CEQA fr the mitigatin f greenhuse gas emissins. A number f actins have taken place under SB 97; they are discussed belw. OPR Climate Change Technical Advisry. On June 19, 2008, OPR issued a technical advisry as interim guidance regarding the analysis f GHG emissins in CEQA dcuments (OPR 2008). The advisry indicated that a prject s GHG emissins, including thse assciated with vehicular traffic and cnstructin activities, shuld be identified and estimated, and recmmended that the lead agency determine significance f the impacts and impse all mitigatin measures that are necessary t reduce GHG emissins t a less than significant level. The advisry did nt recmmend a specific significance threshld. Instead, OPR requested that ARB recmmend a methd fr setting threshlds that lead agencies may adpt (OPR 2009). CEQA Guideline Amendments. In its wrk t frmulate CEQA Guideline Amendments fr GHG emissins, OPR submitted the Prpsed Draft CEQA Guideline Amendments fr Greenhuse Gas Emissins t the Secretary fr Natural Resurces n April 13, The Natural Resurces Agency cnducted frmal rulemaking prcedures in 2009 and adpted the CEQA Guideline Amendments n December 30, They became effective in March Lcal Bay Area Air Quality Management District On June 2, 2010, BAAQMD adpted updated CEQA Air Quality Guidelines. These guidelines cntain GHG peratinal emissins significance threshlds and recmmended methdlgies and mdels fr use in assessing the impacts f a prject s GHG emissins n glbal climate change (BAAQMD 2010a). The updated CEQA Air Quality Guidelines recmmend that significance threshlds fr GHG emissins shuld be related t AB 32 s GHG reductin gals r the state s strategy t achieve the 2020 GHG emissins limit, and als prvide recmmended mitigatin measures fr reducing GHG emissins frm land use develpment prjects and statinary surces. The CBIA filed a lawsuit alleging that the District had vilated CEQA by failing t review the ptential envirnmental impacts f the revised threshlds befre adpting them. On March 5, 2012, the Alameda Cunty Superir Curt issued a judgment finding that BAAQMD had failed t cmply with CEQA when it adpted the June 2010 threshlds f significance. Hwever n July 13, 2013, the curt f appeal ruled that adptin f the threshlds was nt subject t CEQA. Althugh this decisin may be appealed by the CBIA, the University has determined that in this circumstance it will use the methdlgical apprach and emissins threshlds in the BAAQMD guidelines t evaluate the impacts f the prpsed prject. The threshlds fr the evaluatin f GHG impacts frm the BAAQMD CEQA Air Quality Guidelines are presented belw in Sectin

11 Lcal Plans and Plicies City f Richmnd 2030 General Plan. The prpsed RBC site is a University prperty that cnducts wrk within the University s missin n land that is wned r cntrlled by The Regents. As a state entity created by Article IX, Sectin 9 f the Califrnia State Cnstitutin, the University is exempt under the state cnstitutin frm cmpliance with lcal land use regulatins, including lcal plans and plicies. Hwever, the University seeks t cperate with lcal jurisdictins. The RBC site is in the City f Richmnd. The City f Richmnd has adpted a reslutin cmmitting t the emissins targets in AB 32, and has adpted an Energy and Climate Change element as part f its General Plan The City f Richmnd 2030 General Plan includes an Energy and Climate Change Element (Element 8). The greenhuse gas plicies relevant t the 2014 LRDP are: Gal EC1 Leadership in Managing Climate Change. Take steps t address climate change and t manage its effects. This entails nt nly pursuing grund-breaking prgrams and innvative strategies, but educating residents and businesses abut these actins and actively mnitring results t ensure prgress in critical areas. Partner with ther jurisdictins and rganizatins t develp effective reginal slutins and regulatin at reginal, state and federal levels. Cllabrate with residents, businesses, public agencies and neighbring jurisdictins, in rder t meet r exceed state requirements fr reductins in greenhuse gas emissins. Gal EC2 Clean and Efficient Transprtatin Optins. Expand the City s green transprtatin netwrk by encuraging the use f climate-friendly technlgy, planning grwth arund multiple mdes f travel and reducing autmbile reliance. In additin t prmting imprved public transit, partner with private develpers t undertake citywide imprvements that make active mdes f travel, such as walking and bicycling, mre cmfrtable and preferable ptins. Gal EC3 Sustainable and Efficient Energy Systems. Reduce the City s cnsumptin f energy by encuraging energy cnservatin, and supprting the cnsumptin f energy prduced by climate-friendly technlgies. Reduce the City s verall waste stream by reducing the City s cnsumptin f gds and materials, and by adpting a zer-waste philsphy. Gal EC4 Sustainable Develpment. Reduce energy cnsumptin by prmting sustainable land uses and develpment patterns. Pursue infill develpment pprtunities and encurage the cnstructin f higher-density, mixed-use prjects arund existing public transit infrastructure, schls, parks, neighbrhd-serving retail and ther critical services. Incrprate eclgically sustainable practices and materials int new develpment, building retrfits and streetscape imprvements. Gal EC5 Cmmunity Revitalizatin and Ecnmic Develpment. Transfrm Richmnd int a healthy cmmunity where green industries and businesses can flurish. Supprt sustainable businesses and practices that prvide bth cmmunity and envirnmental benefits while stimulating jb and revenue grwth. Gal EC6 Climate-Resilient Cmmunities. While the impacts f climate change n lcal cmmunities are uncertain, t the extent pssible, prepare t respnd t and prtect residents and businesses frm increased risks f natural disasters such as flding r drught. The General Plan element als cntains a range f plicies and implementing actins that supprt each gal

12 The 2030 General Plan EIR determined that the effects f GHG emissins frm future develpment within the City pursuant t the General Plan wuld be significant and unavidable. The EIR nted that the City was in the prcess f develping a Climate Actin Plan which wuld prvide reductin strategies fr the City t attain, at a minimum, the AB 32 gal f emissins reductin by 20 percent belw business as usual. The EIR als nted that the incrpratin f the state measures, General Plan plicies and actins, and mitigatin measures wuld reduce the impacts frm peratinal emissins, but even with the reductin, the emissins wuld exceed the BAAQMD threshld and the impact wuld be significant and unavidable. Richmnd Bay Campus. The applicable lcal plan r plicy wuld be a greenhuse gas reductin plan r a CAP adpted r prpsed by the University fr the RBC. While the University plans t adpt a CAP, it has nt been develped fr the RBC. BAAQMD s Clean Air Plan is a multipllutant plan that includes GHGs but specifically states that it is nt t be cnsidered a GHG reductin plan. Therefre, cnsistent with BAAQMD s CEQA guidance n GHG emissins, which is designed t meet AB 32 requirements in the regin, AB 32 is the applicable plan. AB 32 establishes GHG reductin gals fr the state thrugh Because the time hrizn fr campus develpment under the prpsed 2014 LRDP is 2050, in additin t AB 32, ther state requirements als prvide the planning framewrk. This is discussed further in the sectins belw Impacts and Mitigatin Measures Standards f Significance The impacts related t 2014 LRDP implementatin GHG emissins wuld be cnsidered significant if they wuld exceed the fllwing significance criteria, in accrdance with Appendix G f the 2013 State CEQA Guidelines: Generate GHG emissins, either directly r indirectly, that may have a significant impact n the envirnment; r Cnflict with an applicable plan, plicy, r regulatin adpted fr the purpse f reducing the emissins f GHGs. Sectin f the amended 2013 State CEQA Guidelines states that, when making a GHG emissins significance determinatin, a lead agency shall have discretin t determine whether t: (1) Use a mdel r methdlgy t quantify greenhuse gas emissins resulting frm a prject, and which mdel r methdlgy t use; r (2) Rely n a qualitative analysis r perfrmance based standards. Sectin als states that a lead agency shuld cnsider these factrs when assessing the significance f GHG emissins n the envirnment: (1) the extent t which the prject may increase r reduce greenhuse gas emissins as cmpared t the existing envirnmental setting; (2) whether the prject emissins exceed a significance threshld that the lead agency determines applies t the prject; and (3) the extent t which the prject cmplies with regulatins r requirements adpted t implement a statewide, reginal, r lcal plan fr the reductin r mitigatin f GHG emissins. The first Appendix G criterin may be evaluated by directly calculating the prpsed prject GHG emissins and cmparing the emissins with the available significance threshlds. BAAQMD has peratinal GHG emissins significance threshlds in its CEQA Air Quality Guidelines. There are n significance threshlds fr cnstructin emissins f GHGs, althugh BAAQMD recmmends that emissins be quantified, reprted, and evaluated. BAAQMD s significance threshlds fr peratinal-related GHG emissins are: 4-137

13 Cmpliance with a Qualified GHG Reductin Strategy, Annual emissins less than 1,100 MTCO 2 e, r Annual emissins f 4.6 MTCO 2 e/service persn/year (where service persns are residents plus emplyees). BAAQMD has a statinary surces emissins threshld f 10,000 MMTCO 2 e per year. Statinary surce emissins are t be assessed separately frm area and mbile surces assciated with a prject s peratin. The BAAQMD emissins threshlds are specifically designed t bring the regin int cmpliance with AB 32 requirements. The 2014 LRDP has a prjected full implementatin date f 2050, which is beynd the final AB 32 target date. Therefre, the BAAQMD threshld f 4.6 MTCO 2 e/service persn culd nt be used t evaluate the emissins frm full LRDP develpment. AB 32 mandates reductin f GHG emissins t 1990 levels by 2020, with n targets beynd that date. Executive Order S-3-05 includes the same 2020 target, and includes a 2050 target f an 80 percent reductin frm 1990 levels. BAAQMD was cnsulted t develp a significance threshld with which the University culd evaluate the GHG emissins effect f full RBC develpment. The BAAQMD recmmended that the LRDP shuld shw prgress tward the Executive Order S-3-05 target, and that interplatin between the 2020 and 2050 targets wuld be an acceptable manner t develp a significance threshld t evaluate the emissins assciated with the full 2014 LRDP implementatin. Using Califrnia Department f Finance prjectins f state ppulatin in 2050 and by reducing 1990 emissins f GHG by 80 percent, the 2050 target was estimated t be 0.81 MTCO 2 e/service persn/year. This threshld is used in this EIR t evaluate the peratinal GHG emissins frm the full 2014 LRDP implementatin. The statinary emissins threshld fr 2050 wuld remain at 10,000 MTCO 2 e/year per BAAQMD guidance. The secnd Appendix G criterin may be evaluated by demnstrating cmpliance with plans, plicies, r regulatins adpted by lcal gvernments t cntrl GHG emissins. Accrding t the Natural Resurces Agency: Prvided that such plans cntain specific requirements with respect t resurces that are within the agency s jurisdictin t avid r substantially lessen the agency s cntributins t GHG emissins, bth frm its wn prjects and frm private prjects it has apprved r will apprve, such plans may be apprpriately relied n in a cumulative impacts analysis (Natural Resurces Agency 2009). Under CEQA, the determinatin f whether a prject may have a significant effect n the envirnment calls fr careful judgment n the part f the public agency invlved, based t the extent pssible n scientific and factual data (CEQA Sectin 15064). CEQA grants agencies the general authrity t adpt criteria fr determining whether a given impact is significant (Califrnia Public Resurces Cde Sectin 21082). When there is n CEQA guidance, the agency may lk t and assess general cmpliance with cmparable regulatry schemes. The BAAQMD s Clean Air Plan represents a cmparable regulatry scheme, but specifically states that it is nt t be cnsidered a GHG reductin plan. As AB 32 is the basis fr the BAAQMD s regulatins t cntrl GHG emissins, it is a relevant plicy fr this analysis. Because the LRDP full develpment is prjected t ccur well past the final target date fr AB 32, Executive Order S-3-05 becmes relevant

14 Based n the abve, the prpsed prject s GHG emissins significance and its glbal climate impacts are assessed based n the BAAQMD s GHG significance threshlds and the interplated threshlds based n Executive Order S-3-05 targets. Full 2014 LRDP implementatin is assessed relative t Executive Order S-3-05 and with the interplated threshlds. Analytical Methds OPR in its technical advisry has recmmended that GHG emissins frm prject-related traffic, energy cnsumptin, water usage, and cnstructin activities be identified and estimated, t the extent that data are available t calculate them. ARB staff has cnsidered extensively the value f indirect emissins in a mandatry reprting prgram. ARB believes that indirect energy usage prvides a mre cmplete picture f a facility s emissins ftprint. Accrding t ARB, As facilities cnsider changes that wuld affect their emissins additin f a cgeneratin unit t bst verall efficiency even as it increases direct emissins, fr example the relative impact n ttal (direct plus indirect) emissins by the facility shuld be mnitred. Annually reprted indirect energy usage als aids the cnservatin awareness f the facility Fr these reasns, ARB has prpsed requiring the calculatin f direct and indirect GHG emissins as part f the AB 32 reprting requirements, and the analysis in this EIR address bth types f emissins (ARB 2007). The Califrnia Air Pllutin Cntrl Officers Assciatin (CAPCOA) stated that the infrmatin needed t characterize GHG emissins frm manufacture, transprt, and end-f-life f cnstructin materials (ften referred t as lifecycle emissins) wuld be speculative at the CEQA analysis level (CAPCOA 2008). Since accurate and reliable data d nt exist fr estimating prject lifecycle emissins, the analysis des nt assess them. The data surces and tls used t evaluate the prpsed prject s peratinal GHG impacts include the CalEEMd and calculatin algrithms supprted by the surces listed abve. The CalEEMd mdel uses the EMFAC2007 emissins factr mdel fr n-rad mtr vehicle surces and the OFFROAD2007 emissins factr mdel fr ff-rad equipment. Site-specific r prject-specific data were used in the CalEEMd mdel where available. Where infrmatin was nt available fr the prject, mdel default values were selected. CalEEMd calculates GHG emissins frm a prject based n Bay Area-specific data and assumptins, and includes crrectins fr future applicable regulatry requirements, such as the Lw Carbn Fuel Standard, the Renewable Fuels Prtfli standards, and thers. Additinal surces cnsulted fr this analysis include data and guidance frm the EPA, the US Energy Infrmatin Administratin, ARB, the CEC, the Califrnia Climate Actin Registry s General Reprting Prtcl, and ther GHG and glbal climate change data as referenced. Emissin calculatins fr the prpsed prject are in Appendix B. RBC 2014 LRDP Plicies The RBC 2014 LRDP plicies related t GHG emissins include the fllwing: S1 Sustainability Plicy n Decisin Making: Sustainability chices will be given equal weight with ther planning, prgramming, cst, and design factrs fr facilitating scientific research and facility peratins. Include deliberate steps during early planning, design, and cnstructin t encurage cmmunicatin and integrated design acrss all disciplines t identify crdinated, lw-cst means t fully satisfy ccupant needs with minimized resurce use. S2 Sustainability Plicy n Living Labratry: The RBC will be cultivated as a living labratry, in which planning, perating practices and infrastructure, facilities 4-139

15 perfrmance mnitring data, and sustainability gals are leveraged t engage, apply, and strengthen research. Install energy, water and ther perfrmance mnitring systems t facilitate efficient use f thse resurces. Develp infrastructure and resurces fr the campus based n state-f-thepractice research in sustainability fields. Make and priritize decisins based n scientific research and utcmes and lifecycle csting whenever pssible. S3 Sustainability Plicy n Site Develpment: Embdy envirnmental stewardship and respect the unique character f the RBC in site develpment. Draw n the neighbrhd cntext and prminently feature the natural assets including climate, wetlands, and prximity t the San Francisc Bay and the Bay Trail. Actively prmte sustainability as a cre value at the campus and prvide practical pprtunities fr innvatin and educatin in sustainable design. Manage sil cntaminatin as a cmpnent f each cnstructin prject. Cntrl cnstructin dust by implementing the BMPs defined in the BAQMD CEQA Guidelines. S4 Sustainability Plicy n Energy and Climate: Pursue energy efficiency targets and renewable energy use cnsistent with leading-edge best practices in mitigating climate change. Develp, track, and pursue energy efficiency gals that include annual cnsumptin and peak demand targets fr all buildings and infrastructure. Use building rientatin and passive design strategies t minimize energy use. Maximize n-site generatin f renewable energy. Purchase grid pwer frm 100 percent renewable surces where available at reasnable cst. Directly address the challenge f high energy use in labratry research facilities by explring innvative design and making use f the mild climate at the RBC site t minimize energy use. Develp prjectins fr infrastructure and resurces t serve the campus that are measured relative t benchmarks frm best practice scenaris. Prepare a CAP t guide RBC develpment and peratins and publically reprt greenhuse gas emissins using standard prtcls. S5 Sustainability Plicy n Transparency: Operate transparently in sustainability effrts by setting targets, measuring perfrmance, and regularly reprting results. Establish a multi-stakehlder cmmittee that peridically evaluates sustainability gals and prgress made twards thse gals in a transparent prcess. Make the cst fr future flexibility, redundancy, and spare capacity explicit and subject t budgeting prcesses. S6 Sustainability Plicy n Green Building: New cnstructin prjects exceeding $5 millin will target certificatin thrugh the US Green Building Cuncil f LEED Gld at a minimum. In additin t the LEED Gld requirement, labratry and data center spaces and buildings will be designed t an equivalent "Gld" level using the LBNL 4-140

16 Envirnmental Perfrmance Criteria (EPC) r equivalent rating system fr each building type. Buildings will be designed t cmply with the UC Sustainable Practices Plicy, the UC Berkeley Campus Sustainability Plan, the LBNL Plicy n Sustainability Standards fr New Cnstructin, and any future sustainability plicies, as applicable. S7 Sustainability Plicy n Reduced Ttal Csts: Plan and manage use f all resurces t minimize lifecycle csts. Implement integrated design appraches that manage first csts and minimize life cycle csts fr all facility and infrastructure investments. S8 Sustainability Plicy n Waste Minimizatin: Waste minimizatin and diversin planning fr the RBC will target 100 percent diversin f municipal slid waste t cmpsting and recycling by 2020, while simultaneusly minimizing all waste streams. Take advantage f pprtunities t minimize the verall amunt f material handled either as cmpst, recycle, r landfill waste identified thrugh nging evaluatin f activities. Apply acquisitin plicies t minimize waste and envirnmental impacts. S9 Sustainability Plicy n Health and Wellness: RBC develpment will prmte health and wellness f the cmmunity, including emplyees, visitrs, and ecsystems assciated with the site. The n-campus transprtatin system will encurage walking and bicycling between buildings n the campus, minimizing the levels f greenhuse gases prduced fr lcal travel. Prvide an utdr recreatin area suitable fr physical exercise. Prvide walkways with signs interpreting the eclgical value f the grassland and marsh areas. Prvide health-cnscius fd chices at n-site eating amenities. S10 Sustainability Plicy n Lcal Cnnectins: The RBC prcurement plicies will embdy the University s cmmitment t sustainability and imprving the quality f life f citizens in the lcal cmmunities. Fd and ther gds and services will be surced frm lcal grwers and vendrs t the degree practicable. Recgnize that ptable water is a shared resurce that must be cnserved thugh building design, utility and landscape appraches. LRDP Impacts and Mitigatin Measures LRDP Impact GHG-1: Develpment under the 2014 LRDP wuld generate GHG emissins that wuld result in a significant impact n the envirnment. (Ptentially Significant; Significant and Unavidable) Cnstructin GHG Emissins During cnstructin, the prpsed prject wuld generate GHGs frm the exhaust f cnstructin equipment and cnstructin wrkers vehicles. The manufacture f cnstructin materials used by the prject wuld indirectly generate GHG emissins (upstream emissin surce). Upstream emissins are generated during the manufacture f cnstructin materials (e.g., cement, steel, and materials transprt). This prject s upstream GHG emissins, which may include 4-141