ON ROAD MOBILE EMISSIONS IN ARGENTINA: DRIVING VARIABLES FOR VEHICLE NUMBER IN SPATIALLY DISAGGREGATED INVENTORIES

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1 ON ROAD MOBILE EMISSIONS IN ARGENTINA: DRIVING VARIABLES FOR VEHICLE NUMBER IN SPATIALLY DISAGGREGATED INVENTORIES Laura Dawidowski, Ariela D Angiola, Darío Gómez Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica Argentina First International Conference on Carbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues Metropolitan Autonomous University (UAM) Mexico City September 4-8, 2006

2 Objective Explore different socioeconomic variables to disaggregate activity data of on-road mobile emission sources for the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area

3 SPATIAL DISSAGREGATION OF EMISSIONS: -FROM COUNTRY TO PROVINCES - FROM BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE TO THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF BUENOS AIRES

4 National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory ON ROAD MOBILE EMISSION SOURCES CONSTITUTES A KEY SOURCE BY LEVEL AND TREND: Heavy Duty 26% CO 2 Cars Gasoline 20% Pollutant Level Trend CO 2 (*) 12.5% 10.3% CH 4 0.3% 1.6% (*) Fourth ranking in the total emissions of Argentina Light Duty Diesel Oil 22%

5 National Green House Gases on Road Mobile Emission Inventory CO2 SO2 Fuel Based Country Specific Carbon Content (Tier 2). Fuel Based Non CO2 Vehicles Kilometers Traveled Consumption by fuel and technology + default emission factors (Tier 2)

6 Emission Inventories for the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires Author Year Methodology Pollutants Weaver & Balam 1996 VKT CO, NOx, PM2.5, SOx, VOCs Gaioli 2000 CO2, CO, NOx, VOCs D Angiola, Dawidowski & Gómez 2003 VKT & Fuel Based CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, NOx, VOCs

7 Data available National Provincial & Buenos Aires City Metrop. Area of Buenos Aires Comments Number of Vehicles NO Special Study for the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires by municipalities, 2003 (UMESAM, IAI) Vehicles Kilometers Traveled Fuel consumption Emission Factors (National Energy Balance) Expert judgement except for Public Transport (Association of Manufacturers) NO Passenger cars: measurements for 0 km European vehicles - - Local measurements for passanger cars (Diesel, Gasoline & Natural Gas)

8 Exploring driving variables of the number of vehicles or number of vehicles /person National Provincial Metrop. Area of Buenos Aires Population Density Geographic Gross Product NO Percentage of Population with Unfulfilled Basic Needs (UBN) Human Development Index NO

9 % of Population with UBN: Provides and estimate of acces to: adequate housing conditions basic sanitary conditions basic education enough income for minimun consumption level Human Development Index: life expectancy level of acquired knowledge gross domestic product per capita

10 Vehicles/person & Population Density Population Density in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires Number of vehicles per person Population Density in the Country

11 GDP at National Level 1.E+07 Outliers Number of vehicles 1.E+06 1.E+05 R 2 = R 2 = E+04 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 Geographic Gross Product (1980)

12 UBN : National Level 0.6 Number of Vehicles per Person y = ē x R 2 = % of Inhabitants with Unsatisfied Basic Needs

13 UBN : AMBA Level 0.6 Number of Vehicles per Person y = e x R 2 = (outlier) % of Inhabitants with Unsatified Basic Needs

14 Trend of Vehicles/person vs %UBN 0.6 NUmber of Vehicles per Person y = e x R 2 = y = e x R 2 = % of Inhabitants with Unsatisfied Basic Needs

15 Human Development Index 0.6 Number of Vehicles per person R 2 = Human Development Index

16 Methodology 1) With data of Fuel Consumption and Number of vehicles: Number of vehicles Statistic Fuel consumption Expert Judgement: Categories with major uncertainties in VKT Calculated Fuel consumption Min (calculated-statistic) VKT 2) Without data of Fuel Consumption and Number of vehicles: Number of Vehicles: driving variables. VKT adopted from similar geographical and traffic pattern condition.

17 VKT (Km/Year)

18 Conclusions The UBN exhibits a high correlation with number of vehicles per person and has been identified as the most suitable indicator for all analysed regions in Argentina. In general terms, population density does not correlates with the number of vehicles per person. Although Geographic Gross product by province correlates with the total number of vehicles, its low availability impairs its usage as a driving variable. The Human Development Index does not present an acceptable correlation with activity data. The fuel based approach can be used to infer VKT for those vehicles with

19 Thank you very much...