Rwanda Air quality and Climate Project: Towards real-time air quality monitoring, reporting and forecasting

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1 Rwanda Air quality and Climate Project: Towards real-time air quality monitoring, reporting and forecasting Prof. Bonfils Safari, Dr. Jimmy Gasore Department of Physics, School of Science College of Science and Technology University of Rwanda 1

2 Part I: Background Rwanda Climate Observatory Project 2

3 Background: The Rwanda Climate Observatory Project Since, A partnership between the Government of Rwanda and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) with three main components 1. Research Climate Observatory (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CO, O 3, BC, CFCs, HCFs, weather) 2. Education An MsC. Program in Atmospheric Sciences (first graduation in October, 2018) 3. Capacity Building Training field technicians in instruments maintenance and basic data analysis 3

4 The Rwanda Climate Observatory Project cont d Measurement site: Mt. Mugogo North West Rwanda (volcanic region) 1 o 35S, 29 o 34E 2590m, altitude to sea level 50 m tower Kigali lab 4

5 The Rwanda Climate Observatory Project cont d Mt. Mugogo New! The focus of the climate observatory is long lived greenhouse gases and Ozone depleting substances The climate observatory is part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment(AGAGE) AGAGE stations across the world 5

6 Part II: Baseline air quality in Rwanda, role of regional scale open fires and transboundary pollution 6

7 Baseline Air Quality: Timeseries of black carbon Timeseries of black carbon (BC), exhibit enhanced BC concentration during both dry seasons (Jan-Feb-Mar and July-Aug- Sep) 7

dot represents an active fire as seen by VIIRS Satellite During JFM, strong fires are observed in

8 Baseline Air Quality: Role of fires: Jan-Feb-Mar Visible Infrared Imaging radiometer Suite and NAME footprints Mugogo NAME: Numerical Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling Environment (UK Met Office) Each red dot represents an active fire as seen by VIIRS Satellite During JFM, strong fires are observed in central Africa corresponding to the source of Mt. Mugogo measurements 8

(Northern) Summer, forest and bush fires dominate the region s

9 Baseline air quality: Role of fires: Jun-Jul-Aug Visible Infrared Imaging radiometer Suite and NAME footprints Mugogo During the (Northern) Summer, forest and bush fires dominate the region s landscape. Air arriving at Mt. Mugogo station is also estimated to come from the same region. 9

10 Baseline Air Quality: Summary Long-range transport of black carbon and carbon monoxide from large scale biomass burning is the major driver of the baseline air quality in Rwanda 10

11 Part III: The Rwanda Air Quality and Climate Project 11

12 The Air Quality Project: Institutions The Climate observatory project (Ministry of Education) has partnered with the Rwanda Environmental Management Authority (REMA) to establish the Air Quality Project. The funds were sourced from the Rwanda s Green Fund (FONERWA). The project has a strong capacity building component, therefore, the University of Rwanda is a major stakeholder. The project is coordinated by the Rwanda Environmental Management Authority, while technical expertise comes from the Ministry of Education and the University of Rwanda. 12

13 The Rwanda Air Quality Project: Implementation steps Phase I Phase II Phase III Purchase and set up air Quality instruments in Kigali and across the country Realtime air quality index through website and android app Install WRF-chem and CAMx models, test the models against observations, met data and satellite data Use the models to analyze and interprete major features and patterns in the ambient concentrations of pollutants Generate periodic reports (diurnal, seasonal cycles, number of exceedance days, noncomplying regions, source fractionation) Short time Air quality forecasting (use : ambient pollutants concentrations, satellite data (fire emissions), realtimemet data) 13

14 Phase I: Installation and realtime reporting: Instruments One Reference station(epa approved ) measuring PM2.5, O3, NO, NO2, SO2, CO, H2S, VOC/NMH 8 + 5(*CMU) medium-cost air quality monitors based on electrochemical sensors-need Reference station for calibration (all criteria pollutants) One Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) 2 +1 (CMU) seven- and ten- wavelengths black carbon instruments Two Nephelometers (with PM2.5 cyclone) One Teledyne T-400 ozone analyzer CO from picarro G2401, CRDS *CMU: Installed by Carnegie Mellon University 14

15 Phase I : Instruments installation status Progress Some instruments are already installed Other are shipping this week The final installation is planned in February, 2018 RealtimeAQI on web and android app will be available by June 2018, latest Resources Staffs Rwanda Climate observatory MsCStudents in Atmospheric Sciences Prof. BonfilsSafari, Dr. Jimmy Gasore MIT Researchers (Through MoUwith MINEDUC) Carnegie Mellon University (MoUwith the Univ. of Rwanda) Challenges We have had some delay in the procurement process but all have been solved No major challenges are expected in this step 15

16 Phase II: Models installation, testing and tuning Progress Resources Installation of WRF-Chemand CAMxto start by January IVE (MOVES) will be explored for traffic emissions estimation Dr. Jimmy Gasore MSc students in Atmospheric Sciences, UR Ambient concentrations of air pollutants, traffic emissions data, industrial emission data (TNC,..) Satellite data (MODIS, OMI, CALIPSO, ) Challenges Computational resources Accuracy of reanalysis data (4D Variation data assimilation?) Hilly topography Up wind ambient concentrations (Mozart-4 boundary conditions, regional collaboration?) 16

17 Phase III: Short-time air quality forecasting This step naturally follows the Phase II: Once models are tuned and performs satisfactorily, the forecasting will start Resources: Real-time Met data, upper air sounding, realtime ambient concentrations, Satellite data Challenges: The main challenge will be computational resources here 17

18 Rwanda Air quality and climate project: Summary The project will last3years, after which additional source of funds will be needed. Rwanda Environmental Management Authority has committed to take on the continued maintenance of the equipment. Computational resources are the main challenge for air quality modelling and forecasting. Additional funding will be needed to increase the number of monitoring locations. 18

19 Concluding remarks The Rwanda Air Quality and Climate project is on track for realtime air quality monitoring and reporting. And is undertaking first steps in air quality modelling and forecasting. A protocol for data sharing accross Africa is needed to resolve upwind ambient concentration and transboundary transport of pollutants. Cooperation and collaboration between research institutions and Universities would be invaluable in tackling air pollution in Africa. 19

20 THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION 20

The Rwanda Climate Observatory Project

The Rwanda Climate Observatory Project Mike HUGHES, Jimmy GASORE CAAST-Net Plus Regional Workshop on Climate Change, Sports View Hotel, Kigali Rwanda, May 28-30, 2014. Rwanda Climate Observatory Research,