IRP Advisory Group 2017 IRP Kick Off

Transcription

1 IRP Advisory Group 2017 IRP Kick Off

2 2017 IRP Kick Off 12:30 12:50 Introductions and Check In 12:50 1:10 IRP Process Overview 12:50 1:20 Stakeholder Process Updates 1:20 1:45 Ground Rules 1:45 3:15 Review WUTC Letter 3:15 3:30 Next Steps 2

3 IRP Rule WAC Integrated resource planning. (1) Purpose. Each electric utility regulated by the commission has the responsibility to meet its system demand with a least cost mix of energy supply resources and conservation. In furtherance of that responsibility, each electric utility must develop an "integrated resource plan." (2) (a) "Integrated resource plan" or "plan" means a plan describing the mix of energy supply resources and conservation that will meet current and future needs at the lowest reasonable cost to the utility and its ratepayers. (2) (b) "Lowest reasonable cost" means the lowest cost mix of resources determined through a detailed and consistent analysis of a wide range of commercially available sources. At a minimum, this analysis must consider resource cost, market-volatility risks, demand-side resource uncertainties, resource dispatchability, resource effect on system operation, the risks imposed on ratepayers, public policies regarding resource preference adopted by Washington state or the federal government and the cost of risks associated with environmental effects including emissions of carbon dioxide. 3

4 Regulatory Compliance Establish Resource Needs Stakeholders Commit to Action Make Decisions Planning Assumptions & Resource Alternatives Analyze Alternatives and Portfolios Market Outlook Analyze Results 4 Customer Needs

5 Stakeholder Process Updates Build Off Existing Approach + Ideas from Council s Approach Improve Transparency Improve Efficiency with More Structure Update Informed by Dialogue with Several Stakeholders Thank you! 5

6 Stakeholder Process Structure Retain IRP Advisory Group Open to all interested in participating Generally broader policy issues Overview of details Needs to stay focused on agenda Technical Advisory Committees Detailed technical information PSE Staff needs from industry experts Participants: Open and focused on agenda Balancing TAC and IRPAG Meetings More structure to allow more efficient use of everybody s time Hopefully not more meetings-more splitting up agenda for better time planning Other Meetings PSE may meet with any party/groups as needed to complete IRP 6

7 Technical Advisory Committees Focus Technical details PSE staff needs to perform IRP analysis Not cross-examination & discovery of assumption development Demand-Side Resource Advisory Committee (DSR-AC) Electric and gas demand-side resource potentials and costs Electric Resource Advisory Committee (Thermal RAC & Renewable RAC) Resource alternatives, costs, and operational performance Thermals and renewables/storage separate for timing Gas Resource Advisory Committee (GRAC) Resource alternatives, costs, and timing related issues Will invite other gas utilities and pipeline representatives Electric Flexibility Technical Advisory Committee (FTAC) Discussion of frameworks, analytical approaches, and assumptions Will invite other utilities, NPCC, and others we know in region with experience 7

8 Ground Rules-2017 IRP Advisory Group See Document 8

9 Review of 2015 IRP Acceptance Letter

10 Main Topics Addressed in Letter Electric Resource Adequacy Generation Resources Reserve Requirements Thermal Plant Capital Investments Distribution and Transmission System Evaluation Energy Storage and Flexibility Process and Public Participation Natural Gas Resources 10

11 Electric Resource Adequacy Planning Standard Rejected update, suggests reverting back to 5% LOLP Market risk approach is reasonable approach and should continue Response: PSE plans to update planning standard: 5% LOLP w/market risk Response: Will review all assumption deviations from NPCC model Resource Capacity Values: ICE vs ELCC Consider alternative methods for approximating ELCC Do not use ICE to acquire resources Response: Detailed and complicated many use language loosely Difference: resource adjustments vs load adjustments Will calculate ELCC for new intermittent resources Will discuss details of analyzing existing resources ICE vs ELCC doesn t affect resource need, only peak capacity value of new resources 11

12 Generation Resources (1) Peakers with Oil Back-up Assume peakers can have full oil back-up unless document infeasibility Response: Will extend reliability of oil back-up analysis to include new plants, not just existing fleet Major Maintenance and Similar Assumptions Affecting Dispatch Revisit how major maintenance is reflected in assumptions and discuss with technical advisory group Provide narrative of any such changes in the future Response: Will have those discussions Location of Peakers Quantify benefits/costs of peakers in east/west WA. Include dynamic scheduling Include potential risks with BPA transmission policies Response: Will do that again, but east/west is not necessarily WA 12

13 Generation Resources (2) Montana Wind Revisit assumptions regarding eastern Montana wind Consider use of Colstrip transmission if portion retired Consider a sensitivity where MT wind qualifies for WA RPS Response: Will update assumptions and transmission availabilities Response: Will consider sensitivity where MT wind could qualify. Caution--PSE does not want to be seen as undermining the intent of RCW (RPS). 13

14 Generation Resources (3) Renewable Resources Compare the marginal cost of generating a REC from company-built resources versus cost of purchasing unbundled RECs Response: Seems like an acquisition, not IRP question Response: An RFP is appropriate process to determine availability and price of long-term RECs Response: Will reflect results of RFP if feasible or tipping point analysis Renewable Resource and Storage Costs Solicit feedback from advisory group on timing and cost performance of renewables and storage Clearly identify any learning curves used to discount future costs or improved performance Response: Will do this with renewables, storage, and thermal resources 14

15 Reserve Requirements Work with regional stakeholders, including the Northwest Power and Conservation Council staff to publish information about PSE s reserve requirements. Response: Complicated, but PSE will work with the Council staff on information they would find helpful and provide it if possible. 15

16 Thermal Plant Capital Investments PSE must develop a model that economically optimizes the timing of thermal plant retirements, capital investments, and replacement power for use in all future IRPs. Response: Will examine different analytical frameworks Need to develop assumptions for all the gas plants on a long-term basis. Probably need to consider Colstrip with scenarios. Also, consistency with PSE s upcoming 2017 general rate case. 16

17 Distribution and Transmission System Evaluation (1) Statement of Concern: the planning process for addressing local distribution and transmission needs is appropriately separate from the IRP s high-level generic resource and system-wide view point. Commission is concerned above statement contradicts WAC Response: Will consider returning System Planning Chapter in 2017 IRP like in prior IRPs Continue including value of avoided T&D costs in demand-side resource potentials Transmission was central issue in IRP Reliability of transmission to market Transmission import limits from CA in adequacy analysis Transmission for MT wind scenarios East-vs-West of Cascades gas plants Appendix I, Regional Transmission Resources 17

18 Distribution and Transmission System Evaluation (2) Impact of Local Transmission System Constraints 2013 IRP recommended PSE model the transmission system constraints in its system and explicitly describe the impact those constraints have on resource selection Response: Appendix I illustrated those transmission system constraints in Appendix I, p. I-5. The constraints may influence where generation would be located, but are not sufficient to impact resource alternatives. Exact location of new generation is a level of detail that is examined in the Acquisition process, because the cost of specific generators and related implications on the transmission system are resource specific. Distributed Solar and Impact on Distribution System Applauded effort and encouraged continued evaluation of distributed generation on generation, transmission, and distribution. Response: Will discuss ideas at next IRP meeting. 18

19 Energy Storage and Flexibility Value ancillary services and model sub-hourly dispatch to the fullest extent possible. Response: Acquired Plexos and will engage with Flexibility TAC Specify the operating and performance characteristics PSE prioritizes for energy storage prior to issuing its next RFP Response: Depends on timing of next RFP. If in 2016, it will not be feasible, as we are currently developing the analytical framework. 19

20 Process and Public Involvement Encouraged continued use of outside facilitator to manage advisory group meetings. Response: Lyn Wiltse will be helping again. Commission continues to expect PSE to provide written responses to all Advisory Group questions submitted in writing. Also provide minutes for each Advisory Group meeting. Response: Responding in writing is in our ground rules. IRPAG minutes provided on PSE website 20

21 Natural Gas Resources PSE s IRP does not contain sufficient information to allow the Commission to evaluate the availability of pipeline capacity on Westcoast. Revisit in next IRP. Response: This will be addressed in the GRAC process. 21

22 DRAFT: Proposed 2017 IRP Meeting Schedule-- Work Plan Filed July 15 Thurs, Sept 16 6 GRAC IRPAG Tues, Nov 15 8 IRPAG Thurs, Apr IRPAG IRP Filed July 14 Fri, June 17 1 IRPAG Mon, Aug 22 5 Renewable RAC Mon, Oct 17 7 Flex Tac DSR-AC Thurs, Jan 12 9 IRPAG Fri, March IRPAG Mon, May IRPAG June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July July 25 3 Thremal RAC Draft IRP April 28 July 2016 July 13 or 14 2 Flex TAC July 28 4 DSR-AC IRPAG Refer to handout for description of each meeting 22

23 Next Steps Finalize Meeting Dates Work Plan filed at WUTC: July 15, 2016 (Friday) Draft 2017 IRP: May 15, 2017 (Monday) 2017 IRP Filed: July 14, 2017 (Friday) 23

24 THANK YOU June 6,