Upper North Island Transport Study (UNITS) Where are the knowledge gaps?

Transcription

1 in Upper North Island Transport Study () Where are the knowledge? Research Fellow in Transport Economics The Energy Centre The University of Business School, New Zealand 20 May 2010

2 in 1 in

3 Overview in 1 in

4 Acknowledgements in John Davies, Manager Transport Analysis, Regional Council Richard Scott, Senior Consultant, Booz & Company (formerly with ARTA) Dr Ian Longley, Senior Air Quality Scientist, NIWA Stephan Hassold, PhD Candidate, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Disclaimer The views expressed in this presentation are my own, and should not be regarded as being the opinion or responsibility of The University of.

5 Acknowledgements in John Davies, Manager Transport Analysis, Regional Council Richard Scott, Senior Consultant, Booz & Company (formerly with ARTA) Dr Ian Longley, Senior Air Quality Scientist, NIWA Stephan Hassold, PhD Candidate, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Disclaimer The views expressed in this presentation are my own, and should not be regarded as being the opinion or responsibility of The University of.

6 What is the Upper North Island Transport Study () about? in A recent study of New Zealand national freight demand suggests an increase of 70 75% in freight volume over the next 25 years Traffic movements centred in the upper North Island, particularly around the, Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions are expected to increase Million Tonnes Lifted Growth in Total Commodities / Source: Paling (2008)

7 What is the Upper North Island Transport Study () about? in has a population of about 1.3 million people with over 34 % of New Zealand total employment and is accountable for about 35.6 % of total GDP Population Projection Rest of NZ vs Population Growth Source: NZSTATS, ARTA Source: NZSTATS, ARTA

8 What is the Upper North Island Transport Study () about? in For NZ to remain internationally competitive it is highly dependent on an efficient transport/freight handling system Source: NZSTATS, ARTA Source: NZSTATS, ARTA

9 Research Questions in 1 Is our current transportation system sustainable in the following three dimensions? economic environmental social 2 Do we have enough capacity to deal with the expected growth in transport demand? 3 What would be the best way to invest in transport infrastructure development in order to support the future demand in a sustainable way?

10 How do we define sustainability? in United Nation World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) (the Brundtland Commission) broadly defined sustainability as: [..]Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

11 What is sustainable growth? in Pearce et al. (1989) [..]Economic growth means real GNP per capita is increasing over time. But observation of such a trend does not mean that growth is sustainable. [..]Sustainable economic growth means that real GNP per capita is increasing over time and the increase is not threatened by feedback from either biophysical impacts (pollution, resource problems) or from social impacts (social disruption). Economic growth Sustainable economic growth

12 What is sustainable growth? in Pearce et al. (1989) [..]Economic growth means real GNP per capita is increasing over time. But observation of such a trend does not mean that growth is sustainable. [..]Sustainable economic growth means that real GNP per capita is increasing over time and the increase is not threatened by feedback from either biophysical impacts (pollution, resource problems) or from social impacts (social disruption). Economic growth Sustainable economic growth

13 What is sustainable growth? in Pearce et al. (1989) [..]Economic growth means real GNP per capita is increasing over time. But observation of such a trend does not mean that growth is sustainable. [..]Sustainable economic growth means that real GNP per capita is increasing over time and the increase is not threatened by feedback from either biophysical impacts (pollution, resource problems) or from social impacts (social disruption). Economic growth Sustainable economic growth

14 What is sustainable development? in Pearce et al. (1989) [..]Sustainable development involves devising a social and economic system which ensures that these goals are sustained, i.e. that real incomes rise, that educational standards increase, that the health of the nation improves, that the general quality of life is advanced. or [..]Sustainable development means that per capita utility or wellbeing is increasing over time.

15 What is sustainable development? in Pearce et al. (1989) [..]Sustainable development involves devising a social and economic system which ensures that these goals are sustained, i.e. that real incomes rise, that educational standards increase, that the health of the nation improves, that the general quality of life is advanced. or [..]Sustainable development means that per capita utility or wellbeing is increasing over time.

16 What is sustainability in transport? European Commission (2004) s three-legged stool in Environmental sustainability Economic sustainability Comprehensive sustainability Social sustainability

17 What are the objectives of sustainable transport policy? in European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2000) Objectives Economic Social Environment Improving transport safety Creating wealth Improving access Reducing congestion Reducing traffic severance, fear, intimidation Protecting landscape and biodiversity Reducing noise Reducing GHG emissions Improving air quality

18 How do we achieve sustainability in transport? in May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b): 1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information provision, and infrastructure) 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary agreements) 5 Pricing and taxation

19 How do we achieve sustainability in transport? in May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b): 1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information provision, and infrastructure) 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary agreements) 5 Pricing and taxation

20 How do we achieve sustainability in transport? in May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b): 1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information provision, and infrastructure) 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary agreements) 5 Pricing and taxation

21 How do we achieve sustainability in transport? in May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b): 1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information provision, and infrastructure) 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary agreements) 5 Pricing and taxation

22 How do we achieve sustainability in transport? in May and Crass (2007) summarised the policy instruments considered by European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a, 2006b): 1 Infrastructure provision and management 2 Technology improvements (of vehicle, fuels, information provision, and infrastructure) 3 Regulation (of manufactures, providers, and users) 4 Information, awareness, and education (including voluntary agreements) 5 Pricing and taxation

23 Policy instruments to reduce CO 2 emissions in European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006b) 1 Infrastructure provision and management Freight logistics, improved public transport 2 Technology improvements More fuel-efficient vehicles, new fuels 3 Regulation Improved fuel efficiency standards 4 Information, awareness, and education Eco-driving, product labelling 5 Pricing and taxation Carbon taxes, fuel taxes, vehicle taxes, road pricing

24 Policy instruments to improve urban transport sustainability in European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2006a) 1 Infrastructure provision and management Public transport, walking and cycling, capacity reallocation 2 Technology improvements Better vehicles, new fuels 3 Regulation Public transport, land use 4 Information, awareness, and education Awareness campaigns, IT for users, operators 5 Pricing and taxation Congestion pricing

25 Our goal is... in The goal of the project is to examine what is required to develop an economically sustainable transport system by investigating traffic congestion in and out of, the capacity of the current infrastructure to deal with projected growth and the utilisation of public transport.

26 is conducted in two stages... in Stage-1 Preliminary analysis aims to scope out what is known about transportation and infrastructure in the upper North Island; including existing projected demand for transport services, population growth and passenger transport, public transport, urban settlement patterns and the environmental impacts of transportation.

27 is conducted in two stages... in Stage-2 Detailed large scale project to create a more efficient transport network to increase utilisation of public transportation system in to gain efficiency in logistics operations to enable expected increase in freight movements efficiently to improve quality of life in the upper North Island

28 What is this presentation about? in Stage-1 Preliminary analysis: Where are the knowledge? 1 General Vehicle fleet and usage in NZ in NZ Private and public transport costs in Public transport patronage in 2 3 Vehicle emission models 4 5

29 Our energy use by sector is dominated by transport Total consumed energy by sector in 2006 Source:MED (2007) in Industrial 30% Transport 44% Agriculture 4.3% Commercial 9.1% Residential 12.6%

30 Road is the current major mode in freight transport in terms of both tonnage and tonne-kms in Freight Tonnage by Mode Freight Transport by Mode in NZ Source: Paling (2008) Road 70.2% Freight Tonne Kms by Mode Road 92% Air 0% Sea 1.9% Rail 6.1% Rail 14.6% Air 0.3% Sea 14.9%

31 Road has always been the major mode in freight transport Road and Rail Freight Movements NZ Source: Paling (2008) in Net Tonne kms (millions) Rail Road

32 Light private vehicles (LPV) constitute about 80% of the fleet in NZ and made about 78% of VKT in Vehicle Fleet Composition Vehicles Source:MoT BUS HCV MCY LCV LPV Financial Year Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled Vehicle Km (billions) Source:MoT BUS HCV MCY LCV LPV Financial Year

33 Changes in fleet composition and their usage (VKT) follow very different patterns in Vehicle Fleet per Capita Percentage Increase (vs 2000) Percentage Increase LPV per Capita LCV per Capita MCY per Capita HCV per Capita BUS per Capita Source:MoT Time VKT per Capita Percentage Increase (vs 2001) Percentage Increase VKT.LPV per Capita VKT.LCV per Capita VKT.MCY per Capita VKT.HCV per Capita VKT.BUS per Capita Source:MoT Time

34 VKT by commercial vehicles (LCV+HCV) have increased while that of LPV has decreased in Percentage change in vehicle-kilometres composition Source:MoT VKT FY 2001 VKT FY 2008 LPV 77.6% LPV 79.6% BUS 0.4% BUS 0.6% HCV 5.8% HCV 6.6% MCY 0.5% MCY 0.8% LCV 13.6% LCV 14.4%

35 Driving is also the current major mode for journey-to-work in Proportion / / Period Source:MoT

36 More people are driving to work alone in Proportion Passenger Car 1989/ / Period Source:MoT

37 Public transport modal share has increased in recent years in Proportion PT Car+PT Passenger Car 1989/ / Period Source:MoT

38 Less people are walking or cycling to work in Proportion Other Cycle Walk PT Car+PT Passenger Car 1989/ / Period Source:MoT

39 Some places are accessible only by car in JTW % By Car JTW % By Bus Source: Census 2006, ARTA Source: Census 2006, ARTA

40 Some places are accessible only by car in Roads with more than 80 buses per day Source: ARC JTW % By Bus Source: Census 2006, ARTA

41 Central Business District (CBD) has lower car use in Source: Census 2006, ARTA

42 CBD has higher percentage of walk trips in Source: Census 2006, ARTA

43 CBD also has more people bike to work in Source: Census 2006, ARTA

44 However not everyone wants to live in CBD! in % Trips by Car % Trips by Bus Source: Census 2006, ARTA % Trips by Rail Source: Census 2006, ARTA Source: Census 2006, ARTA

45 Jakob et al. (2006) analysed the total costs of private and public transport in in 1 Internal cost out of pocket costs in transport, money which is directly spent by the government to run the transportation system 2 External cost Accident costs Medical costs, rehabilitation costs, legal costs Costs due to loss of production Property damage Air pollution costs Health damage Damage to vegetation and buildings Climate change costs CO 2 emission

46 in (2001) in Internal costs Accident costs Source: Jakob et al. (2006) Air pollution costs Climate change costs Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

47 Total transport external costs in (2001) in Source: Jakob et al. (2006) Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

48 Total transport external costs in (2001) in Source: Jakob et al. (2006) Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

49 Public transport is a much more efficient mode than private transport! in Source: Jakob et al. (2006) NZD per pax km Internal External Public Transport Private Transport Source: Jakob et al. (2006)

50 Air pollution cost is the second biggest external cost in transport only after congestion cost Transport external costs in (2001) Source: Jakob et al. (2006) in Air Pollution 58% Accidents 36% Climate Change Costs 6%

51 Bus patronage has been increasing since 1999 while rail patronage has been increasing only since 2003 Bus and Rail Patronage per Capita Source:ARTA,NZSTAT in

52 Bus services has been significantly improved in response to the increase in demand since 1999 in Bus Patronage and Bus-kilometres per Capita in Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

53 Deregulation of bus services induced a significant increase in fare in Bus Patronage per Capita and Revenue per Bus Passenger in Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

54 Rail patronage has been on a steep climb since the opening of Britomart in 2003 in Rail Patronage and train-kilometres per Capita in Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

55 Despite significant increase in rail fare, rail patronage has been climbing steeply in Rail Patronage per Capita and Revenue per Rail Passenger in Source:ARTA,NZSTAT

56 Car ownership has been on the rise with increase in income in Real Disposable Income and Car Ownership per Capita in Source:NZTA,NZSTAT

57 Car ownership s increasing trend has flattened while fuel price has been rapidly increasing in Fuel Price and Car Ownership per Capita in Source:MED,NZTA,NZSTAT

58 The increase and fluctuations in fuel price in recent years did have a positive impact on PT patronage Fuel Price versus PT Patronage per Capita Source:MED,ARTA,NZTA in

59 Summary of Findings in More people are driving to work alone Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Less people are walking to work And even less people are cycling to work Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by commercial vehicles is not as significant Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? I am not sure!

60 Summary of Findings in More people are driving to work alone Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Less people are walking to work And even less people are cycling to work Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by commercial vehicles is not as significant Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? I am not sure!

61 Summary of Findings in More people are driving to work alone Public transport modal share has increased in recent years Less people are walking to work And even less people are cycling to work Fuel price fluctuations did have an impact on both VKT by car and PT patronage but the effect on VKT by commercial vehicles is not as significant Is our transportation system becoming more sustainable?? I am not sure!

62 Overview in 1 in

63 Why are we not achieving sustainable development? in Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

64 Why are we not achieving sustainable development? in Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

65 Why are we not achieving sustainable development? in Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

66 Why are we not achieving sustainable development? in Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

67 I believe the real problem is... in A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by: Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 Congestion costs the region s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

68 I believe the real problem is... in A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by: Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 Congestion costs the region s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

69 I believe the real problem is... in A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by: Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 Congestion costs the region s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

70 I believe the real problem is... in A prolonged period of underinvestment in public transport and road focussed planning policy Decline in public transport patronage until around 1999 induced by: Privatisation of public transport services Cheap imported second hand Japanese car became available and the removal of used car tariffs in 1998 Congestion costs the region s economy approximately $900 million per year (MoT, 2006) Public transport systems need to be improved

71 But I also believe we have hope because... in Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 The investment and continuous improvement in public transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, e.g. North Shore Busway The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent five years (, 2009)

72 But I also believe we have hope because... in Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 The investment and continuous improvement in public transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, e.g. North Shore Busway The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent five years (, 2009)

73 But I also believe we have hope because... in Rail patronage had been stagnant for many many years until the opening of the Britomart train station in 2003 The investment and continuous improvement in public transport services did have a positive effect on patronage, e.g. North Shore Busway The fluctuations in fuel price in recent years also had a positive effect on public transport patronage in the recent five years (, 2009)

74 I believe that the current economic evaluation procedure might not lead to a desirable outcome in Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Costs Capital, maintenance and operating costs Property costs Environmental mitigation measures Climate change ($40 per tonne) Induced traffic (not always!) Benefits Travel time costs ($23.85/hr for work travel, $7.8/hr for commuting, $6.9/hr for non-work travel) Vehicle operating costs Accident costs

75 I believe that the current economic evaluation procedure might not lead to a desirable outcome in Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Costs Capital, maintenance and operating costs Property costs Environmental mitigation measures Climate change ($40 per tonne) Induced traffic (not always!) Benefits Travel time costs ($23.85/hr for work travel, $7.8/hr for commuting, $6.9/hr for non-work travel) Vehicle operating costs Accident costs

76 The myth of travel time saving is debatable Average travel time (hours per person per year) in the U.K. Source:Metz (2008) in

77 Is travel time saving a myth in NZ? in Over 95% of benefits of the Waterview Connection arise from travel time saving In Britain, for example, travel time savings have accounted for around 80% of the monetised benefits within the CBA of major road schemes (Metz, 2008) Metz (2008) [..]If travel time savings have significant value only in the short run, then it follows that the economic benefit of long-lived interventions has been misspecified

78 What is missing in CBA? in Opportunity cost/use of land (parking and road infrastructure) Change in urban form and hence the possibility of diminishing travel time saving Other possible environmental performance measures, e.g. Impact of air pollution from vehicle emission on health Energy efficiency for the transportation system as a whole Wider welfare benefits, e.g. agglomeration economies

79 Overview in 1 in

80 Transport has a derived demand in In a market economy, transportation demand presumably arises as a result of utility maximisation by individuals/households and profit maximisation by firms Because travel is a means to an end rather than an end itself, transport has a derived demand All transport demand forecasts, therefore, must begin with some knowledge of the geographic or spatial distribution of economic activities

81 Overview of the Transport Planning Process in

82 Analysis of the Current Situation in

83 Travel Demand Forecast and Future Scenario Analysis in

84 Travel demand models for person trips are far more advanced than for freight trips in in

85 The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model in 1 Trip Generation forecasts the number of trips that will be made 2 Trip Distribution determines where the trips will go 3 Modal Split predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel 4 Trip Assignment predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

86 The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model in 1 Trip Generation forecasts the number of trips that will be made 2 Trip Distribution determines where the trips will go 3 Modal Split predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel 4 Trip Assignment predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

87 The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model in 1 Trip Generation forecasts the number of trips that will be made 2 Trip Distribution determines where the trips will go 3 Modal Split predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel 4 Trip Assignment predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

88 The Classical Four-Stage Transport Planning Model in 1 Trip Generation forecasts the number of trips that will be made 2 Trip Distribution determines where the trips will go 3 Modal Split predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel 4 Trip Assignment predicts the routes that the trips will take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway system and ridership forecast for the public transport system

89 Regional Transport Planning Modelling Suite in Source: ARC (2009), Simmonds (1999)

90 The Economic Futures Model (EFM) is based on a regional economic input-output table in Source: ARC (2009)

91 The Transport Models (ATM2) in Source: based on Simmonds (1999)

92 A schematic model for forecasting persons and freight transport demand in Source:Meyer and Straszheim (1971)

93 Relationships between transportation and economic activities are modelled with a feedback mechanism in Source:Meyer and Straszheim (1971)

94 Trip Generation in Models for the Trip Generation: Trend and Time Series Input-Output Model

95 Trip Generation in Models for the Trip Generation: Trend and Time Series Input-Output Model - Trend and time series models predict future trips by extrapolating historical data. - Included in the ART3 and EFM model.

96 Trip Generation in Models for the Trip Generation: Trend and Time Series Input-Output Model - Input-Output models use detailed I-O tables describing the monetary flows between sectors. - Those flows can be factorised with the corresponding sectoral growth rate and then converted into commodity flows. - I-O models are used in a variety of models: Italy, PINGO(Norway) and SCENES(European Union)

97 Trip Distribution in Models for the Trip Distribution: Gravity Model Input-Output Analysis

98 Trip Distribution in Models for the Trip Distribution: Gravity Model Input-Output Analysis - Gravity model predicts the flow as a function of production and attraction measures - Those act like the masses in gravity theory - Transportation cost represents the distance between the masses - Applied in several models: TEM-II Models, SMILE(both Netherlands)

99 Trip Distribution in Models for the Trip Distribution: Gravity Model Input-Output Analysis - Multiregional input-output tables are analysed - The distribution of the trips is derived from the spatial data in the tables - Implemented in the STREAMS and the SCENES model (both Europe)

100 Mode choice in Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models

101 Mode choice in Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models - Logistics models try to minimise the total logistics cost. - Not only transportation costs are relevant but also reliabilty, flexiblity, etc. - Use of supply chain management methods during the decision making process - Implemented in the SMILE and GOODTRIP models (both Netherlands)

102 Mode choice in Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models - Microsimulation models simulate the behaviour of any entity - Elements act heterogeneously within the system and follow behavioural rules. - Adapted in Tokyo model for urban goods delivery

103 Mode choice in Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models - Multimodal network models simultaneously predict mode choice and the route. - Mode transfers are allowed and considered during the decision making - Applied in the SCENES and STREAMS model (both Europe), as well as in SMILE (Netherlands)

104 Mode choice in Models for the Mode Choice: Logistics Model Microsimulation Multimodal Network Models - Those three models not only determine the mode, but also the route at the same time. - Simultaneous mode choice and assignment

105 Assignment in Models for the Trip Assignment: Separate Models Integrated Models

106 Assignment in Models for the Trip Assignment: Separate Models Integrated Models - Separate models like random utility models (e.g. logit and nested logit models) only take one mode into account - No feedback no congestion effect is considered - Other assignments are ignored.

107 Assignment in Models for the Trip Assignment: Separate Models Integrated Models - Integrated models are like mode choice models, i.e. taking feedback into account - Congestions can be represented and other modes and routes be chosen - Logistic decisions can be easily incorporated

108 Freight future demand is estimated within the same modelling framework as for person trips in Freight Demand Modelling Framework in ATM2 Source: SKM et al. (2008) Future freight demand is derived by applying growth factors to the base year HCV matrix Freight logistics and the impact of changes in transport costs are not considered in the model

109 Freight future demand is estimated within the same modelling framework as for person trips in Freight Demand Modelling Framework in ATM2 Source: SKM et al. (2008) Future freight demand is derived by applying growth factors to the base year HCV matrix Freight logistics and the impact of changes in transport costs are not considered in the model

110 Recall that... A schematic model for forecasting persons and freight transport demand in Source: Meyer and Straszheim (1971)

111 Recall that the optimisation process of person trips and freight trips are fundamentally different in Description Person trips Freight trips Actors Individuals Firms Decision criteria Time, cost, cost, reliability, reliability, convenience, operational parking availability, constraints comfort, etc. Optimisation Equilibrium multi-modal Multicommodity models route choice models network models

112 Freight demand is not modelled as a derived demand in the current model... in Freight logistics are not considered A feedback mechanism is missing

113 ARC s Vehicle Emissions Predictions Model Vehicle Emissions Predictions Model () in Source: Energy & Fuel Research Unit, The University of (2008)

114 Emission levels and energy consumption as a function of average speed in CO2 Emission (g/km/veh) Fuel consumption CO 2 Emission & Fuel Consumption CO2 Emission vs Speed LV Speed (km/hr) Fuel vs Speed LV Speed (km/hr) Source: ARC CO2 Emission (g/km/veh) Fuel consumption CO2 Emission vs Speed HV Speed (km/hr) Fuel vs Speed HV Speed (km/hr) VOC Emission (g/km/veh) NOx consumption VOC & NOx Emissions VOC Emission vs Speed LV Speed (km/hr) NOx vs Speed LV Source: ARC Speed (km/hr) VOC Emission (g/km/veh) NOx consumption VOC Emission vs Speed HV Speed (km/hr) NOx vs Speed HV Speed (km/hr)

115 There is a knowledge gap between air quality modelling and traffic modelling at a strategic level in A Four-Arm Junction With Junction Delay Functions Applying the current vehicle emission model to a transport strategic planning model might not give us a correct estimation

116 There is a knowledge gap between air quality modelling and traffic modelling at a strategic level in A Four-Arm Junction With Junction Delay Functions Applying the current vehicle emission model to a transport strategic planning model might not give us a correct estimation

117 The emission function has different components TRL (1999) suggests: in where E total = E hot + E start + E evaporative E total is the total emission; E hot is the emission produced when the engine is hot; E start is the emission when the engine is cold; and E evaporative is the emission by evaporation (only for VOC). For example, E start is associated with each trip and is dependent on the length of the trip as well

118 The emission function has different components TRL (1999) suggests: in where E total = E hot + E start + E evaporative E total is the total emission; E hot is the emission produced when the engine is hot; E start is the emission when the engine is cold; and E evaporative is the emission by evaporation (only for VOC). For example, E start is associated with each trip and is dependent on the length of the trip as well

119 Overview in 1 in

120 Recall that... in Why are we not achieving sustainable development? Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

121 Recall that... in Why are we not achieving sustainable development? Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city?

122 Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? in Total transport external costs in (2001) Source: Jakob et al. (2006) No! Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

123 Did we price it right? Are the road users paying the marginal social cost of driving? in Total transport external costs in (2001) Source: Jakob et al. (2006) No! Private transport is subsidised 3.5 cents per pax-km more than public transport!

124 Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? JTW % By Car JTW % By Bus Source: Census 2006, ARTA Source: Census 2006, ARTA in No! Some places are accessible only by car!

125 Do people really have a choice? Are public transport services good enough to be a subsitute? JTW % By Car JTW % By Bus Source: Census 2006, ARTA Source: Census 2006, ARTA in No! Some places are accessible only by car!

126 Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? % Trips by Bus Source: Census 2006, ARTA % Trips by Rail Source: Census 2006, ARTA in Definitely not! The rail system is years and years behind!

127 Are we investing enough in infrastructure to support the more sustainable transport modes? % Trips by Bus Source: Census 2006, ARTA % Trips by Rail Source: Census 2006, ARTA in Definitely not! The rail system is years and years behind!

128 Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city? Population Growth: Source:ARC in Probably not! Urban sprawl seems to be unavoidable!

129 Is the urban form changing in a direction towards a more sustainable city? Population Growth: Source:ARC in Probably not! Urban sprawl seems to be unavoidable!

130 Overview in 1 in

131 Modelling freight demand and its dynamic relationship to economic development in Response to cost changes for modes according to congestion, time of the day, vehicle type, and so on Feedback to the economic model as well as the land use model

132 To incorporate transport logistics into our demand modelling structure in Forecast of vehicle type composition as per supply chain and other logistics considerations Dynamic vehicle routing according to traffic conditions at different times of the day

133 We must understand freight transport logistics by commodity in 1 Dairy products Liquid milk, manufactured dairy products 2 Forestry Logs, pulp and paper, sawn timber, wood chips 3 Coal 4 Petroleum products 5 Aluminium and steel 6 Animal and animal products

134 Integrated environmental, transport and land use planning in How do we incorporate the consideration of energy efficiency and environment impact of vehicle emissions in the transport planning process? How do we assess the change in transport policy on air quality and its subsequent effects on health? How do we integrate transport planning, land use and air quality models to provide information to support decision making?

135 Integrated environmental, transport and land use planning in How do we incorporate the consideration of energy efficiency and environment impact of vehicle emissions in the transport planning process? How do we assess the change in transport policy on air quality and its subsequent effects on health? How do we integrate transport planning, land use and air quality models to provide information to support decision making?

136 Integrated environmental, transport and land use planning in How do we incorporate the consideration of energy efficiency and environment impact of vehicle emissions in the transport planning process? How do we assess the change in transport policy on air quality and its subsequent effects on health? How do we integrate transport planning, land use and air quality models to provide information to support decision making?

137 Air quality scientists are working very hard to model more realistically the impact of vehicle emissions in Source: NIWA Air Quality Modelling Team

138 Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal... in Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of maximum exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

139 Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal... in Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of maximum exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

140 Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal... in Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of maximum exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

141 Air quality modelling should be spatial and temporal... in Impact of pollution has cumulative effect on health An estimation of maximum exposure during the peak periods does not capture the cumulative effect on health Traffic levels at different time periods need to be modelled Multiperiod spatial analysis of air pollution dispersion is necessary to assess more accurately the health effect of vehicle emissions

142 A possible framework to integrate air quality, transport and land use planning in

143 Economic Evaluation Procedure in CBA has to be carried out properly to include the true costs and benefits of transport Introduce Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to support decision making in transport policy, e.g. in (Walker et al. (2006)), sustainability of transport is measured in three dimensions: Economic Environmental Social

144 Economic Evaluation Procedure in CBA has to be carried out properly to include the true costs and benefits of transport Introduce Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to support decision making in transport policy, e.g. in (Walker et al. (2006)), sustainability of transport is measured in three dimensions: Economic Environmental Social

145 Comprehensive sustainability in transport European Commission (2004) s three-legged stool in Environmental sustainability Economic sustainability Comprehensive sustainability Social sustainability

146 Economic Indicators in Litman (2007): 1 Per capita mobility (daily or annual person-km or trips) 2 Modal split personal travel: nonmotorised, automobile and public transport freight: truck, rail, ship and air 3 Average freight transport speed and reliability 4 Per capita congestion costs 5 Total per capita transport expenditure (vehicles, parking, roads and transit services)

147 Social Indicators in Litman (2007): 1 Per capita traffic crashes and fatalities 2 Quality of transport for disadvantaged people (disabled, low incomes, children, etc.) 3 Affordability (portion of household budgets devoted to transport) 4 Overall satisfaction rating of transport system (based on objective user surveys) 5 Universal design (consideration of disabled people s needs in transport planning)

148 Environmental Indicators in Litman (2007): 1 Per capita energy consumption, disaggregated by mode 2 Energy consumption per freight ton km 3 Per capita air pollution emissions (various types), disaggregated by mode 4 Per capita land devoted to transport facilities (roads, parking, ports and airports) 5 Air and noise pollution exposure and health damages 6 Impervious surface coverage and stormwater management s

149 In summary... in The following knowledge have been identified: 1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship to economic development 2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling) impact analysis with transport and land use planning 3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

150 In summary... in The following knowledge have been identified: 1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship to economic development 2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling) impact analysis with transport and land use planning 3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

151 In summary... in The following knowledge have been identified: 1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship to economic development 2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling) impact analysis with transport and land use planning 3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

152 In summary... in The following knowledge have been identified: 1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship to economic development 2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling) impact analysis with transport and land use planning 3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

153 In summary... in The following knowledge have been identified: 1 Modelling of freight demand and its dynamic relationship to economic development 2 Integration of environmental (e.g. air quality modelling) impact analysis with transport and land use planning 3 A multicriteria economic evaluation procedure to support policy decision making in order to achieve comprehensive sustainability in transport Thank you! You are welcome to reach me at j.wang@auckland.ac.nz

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157 in Environment and Development. Available online at ringofpeace.org/environment/brundtland.html. Walker, W. E., Rahman, S., van Grol, R., and Klautzer, L. (2006). Operationalising the concept of sustainable transport and mobility. Environmental Practice, 8, , J. (2009). Appraisal of factors influencing public transport patronage in New Zealand. The 32 nd Australasian Transport Research Forum, held in, New Zealand, 2009.