New drive of the post-socialist socialist periphery: Polish automotive industry in the European division of labour
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1 Regional Development in Central and Eastern Europe, Warsaw, September 2007 New drive of the post-socialist socialist periphery: Polish automotive industry in the European division of labour Boleslaw Domański Robert Guzik Krzysztof Gwosdz Jagiellonian University, Poland
2 Aims 1. How has position of Poland s automotive industry in Europe changed since the 1990s? 2. What are the sources of competitive advantage of automotive industry in Poland? 3. What are regional effects? 4. What are prospects and determinants of future development? Toyota engine plant in Jelcz
3 Theoretical perspective global value chains new international division of labour evolutionary theory of the firm local capabilities embeddedness Toyota engine plant in Jelcz
4 Trends in the organization of production and supply management strategies in automotive industry lean production total quality management just-in-time deliveries emergence of first-tier suppliers as system integrators modularization design competences reduction in the number of platforms reduction in the number of first-tier suppliers Kirchhoff plant in Mielec
5 Empirical foundation database with 1014 automotive plants and 23 characteristics (variables) 160 face-to-face in-depth interviews with managers in 77 companies Kirchhoff body parts plant in Gliwice
6 The role of automotive industry in Poland (2006) - 6.5% of manufacturing employment - 8.3% of foreign inward investment % of manufacturing production % of Polish exports VOLVO bus plant in Wrocław
7 Automotive exports and imports of Poland, Exports 20.5 bn USD in bn USD in bn USD in 1992
8 Balance of foreign trade in automotive products, 2006 (billion euro) Source: Eurostat
9 Polish automotive exports and imports by country in 2005
10 Structure of automotive exports of CE countries, 1996 & 2006
11 Gross value added per unit personnel cost in the automotive industry (NACE 34), 2004 (simple wage adjusted labour productivity) ITALY BELGIUM SWEDEN UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE SPAIN AUSTRIA NETHERLANDS CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA HUNGARY POLAND Source: Eurostat GERMANY
12 fgh Automotive suppliers: broad scope and differentiation 2,600 automotive producers, including more than 250 foreign plants 180 greenfield plants built by foreign investors since out of the top 100 global automotive suppliers are active in Poland 9 out of the top 10 global automotive suppliers: 39 factories and 4 R&D 19 automotive R&D centres new industrial park in Tychy, Upper Silesia
13 fgh Local competences of automotive suppliers: quality certificates (number of plants) Total Domestic Toyota engine plant in Jelcz
14 fgh Local competences of automotive suppliers: managers (percentage of 135 foreign-owned affiliates with a Polish chief executive) 67% 37% 27% 36% American German French Total Toyota engine plant in Jelcz
15 Automotive industry in Poland compared to Western Europe 160 face-to-face in-depth interviews with managers in 77 companies product product complexity stage in product life-cycle standardized value-added brand name range of products (economies of scope) volume of production (economies of scale) finished/intermediate goods quality labour skills upgrading of skills job certainty employment standards productivity broad labour market production process advanced technology automation level capital-intensiveness organization of production market size of demand stability of demand dependence on single market conventional subcontracting long-term contracts suppliers local content pool of suppliers standard of suppliers trust dependance on lead firms activity of local producers non-production competences strategic decisions financial capabilities marketing competences purchasing competences research and development others responsiveness sunk costs outward foreign investment embeddedness impact on local economy dependence on one sector dependence on TNCs dependence on single firm
16 Competitiveness of plants fgh located in Poland in comparison to plants located in Western Europe 1 lagging behind Western Europe 3 similar to WE 5 better than in WE Non-production competences Product complexity Technology Productivity Quality Organization of production Labour motivation Adaptability Fast response
17 Position of the company in a supply chain according to origin of capital high quality, productivity and competitive cost are not sufficient conditions for indigenous firms to become first-tier and major second-tier suppliers; they lack financial and human resources to provide design and high-volume 1
18 Polish automotive industry, 2004
19 Foreign greenfield investment in automotive industry as of December 2004
20 Changes in regional distribution of employment in automotive industry in Poland, (1998=100)
21 Position of Polish automotive industry in Europe The automotive industry in Poland has moved from its initial situation of the post-communist periphery in the early 1990s characterized by simple labour-intensive production and assembly for domestic market towards export-oriented high value-added products and advanced technology The expansion of automotive production and exports of Poland increasingly rests on other advantages than simply lower costs: high quality, reliability, adaptability, flexibility, fast response and low cost The enhanced competences of foreign and domestic firms are built on created local capabilities including skills, motivation and adaptability The major weaknesses of the automotive sector in Poland are: 1. limited non-production competences of foreign subsidiaries 2. the secondary role of domestic producers in value chains The automotive agglomeration in southwestern Poland has developed as part of a broader regional concentration in Central Europe Volkswagen engine plant in Polkowice
22 Prospects for future development The prospects for self-sustaining growth and enhanced competences of automotive firms in Poland will be determined by: + growing economies of scale (plant level) + emerging economies of scope (Poland, and Central Europe) + increasing reliability and trust + synergies of the emerging cluster in south-western Poland + trend towards joint location of R&D and other non-production competences with manufacturing activities + dynamics and structure of the Central-Eastern European market + pressure from local managers GM plant in Gliwice
23 Limits to growth Which advantages are short-lived? + low costs eroded in mid-term perspective due to rising wages and salaries + availability of skilled labour increasing difficulties in recruitment + high quality long-term? + reliability long-term? + adaptability can it be sustained? + fast response can it be sustained? Which threats and barriers are most difficult to overcome? + technological dependence + financial dependence + strategic-decision making dependence + weak indigenous producers + competition from producers located outside Europe + potential decline in core automotive countries of Western Europe GM plant in Gliwice
24 Regional Development in Central and Eastern Europe, Warsaw, September 2007 New drive of the post-socialist socialist periphery: Polish automotive industry in the European division of labour Boleslaw Domański Robert Guzik Krzysztof Gwosdz Jagiellonian University, Poland
25 The future of automotive production in Poland Will the trend for locating non-production competences in Poland be continued? Can the advantages of high motivation and fast response be sustained? How long manufacturing of labour-intensive products can avoid delocalization from Poland? Can indigenous companies move up the value chain? Kirchhoff body parts plant in Gliwice
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