Industrial Measures are in a Near-Perfect V Formation.

Transcription

1 Q INDUSTRIAL NORTH AMERICA HIGHLIGHTS Industrial Measures are in a Near-Perfect V Formation. K.C. CONWAY EMD Market Analytics INDICATORS Relative to prior period VACANCY US Q US Q1 2013* N.A. INDUSTRIAL SUMMARY STATISTICS, Q Canada Q Canada Q1 2013* NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** *Projected, relative to prior period **Warehouse rents Key Takeaways Q4 was the best quarter for industrial warehouse property transactions since Q Industrial warehouse property transactions were up 4% in 2012 to $36.9 billion. Approximately 37% of these transactions ($13.5 billion) occurred in Q net absorption in Colliers 75 primary North American industrial markets surpassed 160 million square feet MSF were absorbed in Q4, or 40% of the 2012 total. Approximately 90% of Q4 leasing activity occurred in the U.S. 30% of Q4 North American net absorption occurred in just five MSAs: Toronto (4.95 MSF), Detroit (4.7 MSF), Los Angeles Inland Empire (4.4 MSF), Dallas/Ft. Worth (3.2 MSF), and Memphis (2.9 MSF). All five markets are home to the nation s busiest intermodal rail operations, with the exception of Chicago. The North American industrial vacancy rate dropped 30 basis points in Q4 to end 2012 below 9.0%. The North American vacancy rate ended 2012 at 8.42%, and the U.S. vacancy rate at 8.92%. Ten major North American markets have vacancy rates at or below 6.5 percent. Montreal (4.3%) and Calgary (5.0%) in Canada; Orange County, CA (4.9%), Omaha (5.1%), Houston (5.2%), Indianapolis (5.3%), Long Island, NY (5.6%), Seattle (5.8%), Los Angeles Inland Empire (6.5%) and Milwaukee (6.5%) in the U.S. US CAN NA NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL VACANCY, INVENTORY AND ABSORPTION Q VACANCY RATE Change from Q (%) ABSORPTION (MSF) NEW CONSTRUCTION (MSF) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (MSF) Absorption Per Market (SF) q3 '12 - q4 '12 ASKING RENTS PER SF (USD/CAD) Average Warehouse/ Distribution Center US CAN ,000,000 1,500, , ,000-1,500,000-3,000,000 Change from Q (%) Sq. Ft. By Region 4 billion billion mil Occupied SF Sq. Ft. Vacant Vacant SF Sq. Ft.

2 Post-Panamax readiness progresses on the East Coast: Baltimore joined Norfolk, VA, as the only other post-panamax port on the East Coast in New York is progressing with project to raise the Bayonne Bridge 60 feet. Miami has ordered new post-panamax cranes. Charleston is on track as well. Geese migrating in their iconic V formation use significantly less energy than flying solo Port of Baltimore has deployed new PPMX cranes Photo: dol.gov Existing Bayonne Bridge to be raised 60 feet by 2015 Photo: Ines Hegedus-Garcia Four of the top 5 U.S. cities for in investment were port cities, according to AFIRE (the Association for Foreign Investment in Real Estate): New York, San Francisco, Houston and Boston. Houston was also in the top five globally for the first time. Recovery in housing is an overlooked industrial demand driver that will gain additional traction in WHAT DO NATURE AND PHYSICS TELL US ABOUT THE V FORMATION, AND HOW DOES IT APPLY TO INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE? Geese are iconic North American birds, most often seen migrating in a signature V formation. This is no accident: the formation is more aerodynamically efficient, reducing the energy the geese expend in flight by as much as 50 percent. This is analogous to what s happening in North American industrial real estate with the growth in e-commerce and the expansion of the Panama Canal lock system. Just as Mother Nature aided geese in configuring their flight, so too is Mother Intermodal guiding distributors, producers, retailers and suppliers to re-engineer their supply chains. The driving force behind demand for industrial real estate as we approach the first post-panamax decade ( ) is efficiency: reduced cost, handling, and time. Several factors are forcing rapid evolution, eliminating the traditional choke points and drag in the system. Container ships two or three times the size of those in service today will soon make regular calls on North American ports, and not just on the West Coast. New hours-worked rules for over-the-road truck freight carriers will shift freight to intermodal and rail. Increasing demand for same-day delivery of goods purchased online will force more collaboration between air cargo and ocean container distribution in both port and air cargo markets, such as Memphis (FedEx) and Louisville (UPS). The effects of this natural streamlining process are already visible. This report examines key Q metrics pertaining to absorption, vacancy, rail carload volume and intermodal traffic, which define the new V formation driving the future demand for North American industrial real estate, and provide the real definition of INTERMODAL: Industrial Now Turns Especially to Rail to Move Ocean Distribution Across Land. P. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

3 INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK H 2012 North American outlook reports focused on mixed economic signals and post-panamax readiness of U.S. ports to understand why industrial real estate has continued to perform well. With the benefit of hindsight, it s increasingly clear that the fiscal headwinds and unemployment riptides are not powerful enough to capsize continued industrial performance in The driving force behind industrial development, leasing and transaction activity remains enhanced efficiencies: more movement of raw materials and processed goods, more global trade with emerging markets in Latin America, more e-commerce, and more domestic manufacturing. And more must be achieved with less: less time to move goods, less energy consumption and less labor-intensive handling of goods and materials at ports. These changes have resulted in ongoing port labor strife, which will continue as the implementation of these efficiencies results in job losses at ports and along the supply chain. Unlike the industrial boom periods in the 20th century that resulted in the construction of factories employing thousands of laborers, the modern manufacturing returning to the U.S. today is highly technical and automated, requiring a leaner and more educated workforce with skills in engineering, IT and robotics. Right now, manufacturers and retailers are intensely focused on developing the most efficient path for goods and materials moving around the globe, traversing both ocean and land. This requires the integration of sophisticated logistics to reduce transportation, warehousing and handling costs, as well as reducing time to deliver finished goods to consumers. The logistics technology driving these efficiencies, along with rising energy costs and expanding trade routes made possible by the Panama Canal expansion, are changing where industrial real estate is most in demand. For these reasons, traditional industrial economic indicators such as GDP, the Institute for Supply Management s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), and Federal Reserve District Bank manufacturing surveys, all fail to explain the boom in industrial real estate. This quarter s analysis of industrial leasing, transaction and development activity highlights five emerging trends related to this observation, which will become more pronounced as we approach the first post-panamax decade ( ). These five trends will explain why the V formation for industrial real estate development and investment in 2013 is pointed toward port markets, inland distribution markets with dominant intermodal facilities (e.g., Atlanta, Memphis, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles and Philadelphia), and a handful of dominant air cargo markets, such as Memphis and Louisville. OF THE LEASES SIGNED THIS QUARTER*, DID MOST TENANTS...? 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR VACANCY LEVELS (relative to current quarter) Contract Hold Steady Expand Up Same Down 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8.3% 50.0% 16.7% 66.7% 33.3% 42.9% 38.1% 38.1% 4.8% 52.4% 16.7% 41.7% 3.2% 5.3% 46.0% 45.3% 41.7% 38.1% 38.7% Midwest Northeast South West Canada U.S. N.A. *Excluding renewals 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11.8% 5.0% 8.3% 9.1% 9.0% 22.2% 33.3% 17.6% 30.0% 11.1% 41.7% 23.6% 26.9% 66.7% 66.7% 70.6% 65.0% 67.3% 64.2% 50.0% Midwest Northeast South West Canada U.S. N.A. CHARACTERIZE CURRENT INDUSTRIAL RENTS IN YOUR 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR RENTS (relative to current quarter) N.A. Canada U.S. Declining Bottoming No Clear Direction Increasing Peaking 1.5% 19.7% 27.3% 48.5% 33.0% 9.1% 36.4% 27.3% 18.2% 21.8% 25.5% 52.7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Up Same Down 16.7% 33.3% 33.3% 47.1% 55.0% 45.5% 40.3% 75.0% 66.7% 66.7% 52.9% 45.0% 54.5% 58.2% 8.3% 1.5% Midwest Northeast South West Canada U.S. N.A. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 3

4 Differentiating trends are: Port markets will distinguish themselves if they... are post-panamax ready; occupy a commodity or product niche, such as coal (Norfolk, VA), grain (Seattle), autos (Baltimore and Jacksonville), poultry or pharmacy (Savannah); or are aligned with the national intermodal rail system; that is, physically connected to one of the seven Class-1 North American railroads. Tampa, Jacksonville, Charleston, Savannah, Philadelphia, Mobile, and New Orleans are examples along the East and Gulf coasts. Intermodal and logistics differentiate top-tier inland distribution MSAs (e.g., Atlanta, Memphis, Louisville, Columbus, Indianapolis, Dallas, Kansas City and Denver) from those that will be ancillary to the national supply chain (e.g., Orlando, Birmingham, Charlotte, Las Vegas and California s Central Valley). Inland waterways are diminishing in importance as a means of moving bulk cargo, due to the inefficiency and unreliability of this mode of transportation owing to unpredictable drought or flood. Changes to environmental and labor regulations are driving cargo away from trucking and toward rail. Air cargo facilities are vital to e-commerce. In 3 5 years, there will be at most a half-dozen dominant U.S. air cargo markets. Candidates include Memphis, Louisville, Columbus, Miami, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and Denver. Because of the costs involved, air cargo in the U.S. will follow the same hub-and-spoke model adopted by passenger air carriers to maximize traffic. MEMPHIS NOW #1 IN AIR GLOBAL CARGO According to Airports Council International, Memphis in February overtook Hong Kong and Shanghai to top the list of Asian, European and North American air cargo markets, as measured by metric tons of air cargo handled annually. With its BNSF intermodal facility, Colliers recognizes Memphis as the top North American market for e-commerce. BEHIND THE STATISTICS & BEYOND THE BASICS Colliers monitors industrial property conditions in 75 North American markets from Miami to Montreal, totaling 16.1 billion square feet of inventory. Approximately 90 percent (14.4 billion square feet) of this inventory is located in the United States. The West and Midwest regions constitute approximately half of the North American industrial warehouse space (8.0 billion square feet), and also accounted for approximately half of the annual net leasing activity in North America. The South is the next largest region, with 4.2 billion square feet of industrial warehouse space, or 26 percent of the North American inventory. The expansion of the Panama Canal, and the addition of at least five more Panamax-ready ports to the East and Gulf coasts, will only enhance the market share of key inland and port distribution markets in the Southeast and Southwest by NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW Q MEASURE NORTH AMERICA CANADA UNITED STATES WEST/MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST # of Markets Inventory (MSF) 16, , , , , ,222.6 % of N.A. Inventory New Supply (MSF) % of N.A. New Supply Vacancy (%) Absorption (MSF) % of N.A. Absorption Leadership Markets Toronto tops in absorption; and then Montreal and Calgary (lowest vacancy rates) Detroit, Los Angeles, Dallas, Memphis, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Louisville and Atlanta in absorption; and then Southern California and Los Angeles, Houston, Indianapolis and Seattle with respect to lowest vacancy Los Angeles, San Diego, Bakersfield, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit and Indianapolis with >1.0 MSF of net absorption Q42012 Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Greenville SC, Louisville, Memphis, Nashville and Richmond with 1.0 MSF net absorption in Q42012 Philadelphia, New Jersey Central and Washington, DC with >1.0 MSF net absorption in Q4 Laggard Markets Halifax and Waterloo with vacancy rates >6.5% NE (Hartford, Boston, and Long Island). Central Valley of California (Fresno, Stockton and secondary SE markets inland from ports and lacking intermodal facilities (Birmingham and Orlando) Central Valley of California and Omaha with <250k SF net absorption in Q Birmingham, Savannah, Orlando, and Little Rock with <250k SF in net absorption in Q Hartford, Boston and Long Island with negative absorption in Q P. 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

5 2012 finished with progress on all fronts. North American and U.S. industrial vacancy rates below 9.0 percent (8.42% and 8.92%, respectively) Q4 was the best quarter since Q and the financial crisis, with $36.9 billion in transactions, making investor demand for industrial real estate second only to multifamily Lease activity surged at year-end, with 45% of 2012 s MSF of net absorption coming in Q4 Addition of another post-panamax port (Baltimore) and another major intermodal facility (Philadelphia) Following four consecutive quarters of improving demand metrics with limited new supply, the overall picture is of a property type in balance. As a result, new construction is both warranted and feasible. U.S. INDUSTRIAL Q Q Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy % Vacancy % TOP 20 NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL S VACANCY VACANCY RANKING 1 CANADA MSA Q4 VACANCY RATE (%) Vancouver Toronto Montreal Calgary UNITED STATES Honolulu Los Angeles Orange County Houston Indianapolis Long Island 5.59 PROFILE 3rd largest Canadian industrial market Largest Canadian industrial market 2nd largest Canadian industrial market 4th largest Canadian industrial market Top-20 North American port Busiest North American TEU container port Busiest Gulf Coast port Developing Canadian Intermodal link Port of New York influence Vacancy From a regional perspective, Canada has the lowest average vacancy rate in North America at 4.25 percent; the Northeast U.S. has the highest, at 9.67 percent. The West and Midwest are the only two U.S. regions with vacancy rates below 9.0 percent 7.88 percent and 8.79 percent, respectively. US CAN NA Vacancy Rate 8.92% 4.25% 8.42% Change from Q % -0.24% -0.30% Drilling deeper into the five North American office regions, vacancy improved the most in the primary port and inland distribution markets with large intermodal facilities. In Canada, among the three large industrial markets (at least 100 MSF of inventory), the vacancy rates are lowest in Vancouver (3.67%), Toronto (4.13%) and Montreal (4.34%). There are 15 U.S. markets with a vacancy rate below 7.5 percent, approximately 100 basis points below the North American average. It is important to note that 13 of the 15 U.S. markets with the lowest industrial vacancy rates are top-20 North American port or top-10 inland distribution markets with major intermodal rail. 11 Seattle LA Inland Empire Milwaukee Miami Kansas City Portland Grand Rapids West Palm Beach Denver 7.45 North American Average Minneapolis 8.12 Top-20 North American port Top-5 North American intermodal facility Key Great Lakes region port Top-20 North American port to Latin America Top-10 North American intermodal facility Top-20 North American port; autos & agriculture Proximity to Great Lakes ports & rail Cruise ship port influence Top-10 intermodal & air cargo Intermodal and rail linkage to Canada COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 5

6 Absorption The final tally on 2012 net industrial absorption was not in the cards at mid-2012, when it appeared that retailers and manufacturers were pulling back from warehouse leasing activity and capital expenditures for supply-chain makeover. However, despite the market s anxiety over the November 2012 election and the Fiscal Cliff, net industrial absorption had its best performance in 2012 since the financial crisis, and Q4 net absorption accounted for 45 percent of aggregate 2012 net leasing activity. Which markets outperformed and why? As was revealed by the year-end vacancy statistics, there is another strong correlation to port and intermodal markets with two wrinkles: Detroit (influenced by the auto recovery), and Phoenix (influenced by the housing recovery). The fiscal headwinds and unemployment riptides are not powerful enough to capsize continued industrial performance because development and leasing activity is fueled by distributors, manufacturers, retailers and shippers who need to re-engineer their supply chain to gain efficiencies required in the post-panamax era, just two years away. Eight of the top ten U.S. markets for both Q4 and CY 2012 absorption were top-ten North American port or intermodal industrial markets. Looking forward to 2013, the only brake on industrial leasing activity in key port and intermodal markets will be the delayed delivery of new space under construction: Los Angeles, Houston, Seattle and Memphis can t complete new space fast enough to keep pace with demand. Market forces will see disproportionately higher 2H 2013 net leasing activity than 1H 2013, as was the case in Construction Activity There is no change from the prior North American Outlook report. Bottom line: there remains a dearth of new speculative warehouse development. Construction activity is still subdued, and predominantly driven by owner-users expanding e-commerce capabilities by redeveloping their supply chain. National retailers such as Amazon, Family Dollar, FedEx, Home Depot, Lowes, Publix, Target, Tractor Supply and Whole Foods are constructing in excess of 9.0 MSF of modern distribution and logistics centers from coast to coast. These new centers account for approximately 30 percent of the 32 MSF of new warehouse construction under way at year-end Another 30 percent of this total is for modern parts and distribution centers for manufacturers, such as Boeing, Volkswagen and Whirlpool. TOP 10 U.S. INDUSTRIAL S ABSORPTION MSA Q (MSF) MSA CY 2012 (MSF) ABSORPTION (SF) SELECT U.S. S Q Millions Chicago (Intermodal) Detroit (Auto + Housing) Los Angeles Inland Empire (Intermodal) Dallas/ Ft. Worth (Intermodal) Chicago Dallas/ Ft. Worth Detroit Los Angeles Inland Empire (Intermodal) (Intermodal) (Auto-recovery) (Intermodal) Chicago, IL Detroit, MI Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Indianapolis, IN New Jersey - Central New Jersey - Northern Savannah, GA 5 6 Memphis (Intermodal) Philadelphia (Port + Intermodal) Los Angeles Coastal Atlanta (Port) 7,400 (Intermodal) ABSORPTION (SF) CANADIAN S Q Millions Phoenix (Housing) Los Angeles (Port) Louisville (Air Cargo) Richmond (Port) Houston Phoenix Columbus Seattle (Port) (Housing Recovery) (Air Cargo) (Port) Toronto, ON Vancouver, BC Edmonton, AB Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Ottawa, ON Waterloo Region, ON Victoria, BC Montréal, QC Calgary, AB Halifax, NS Winnipeg, MB P. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

7 The 5 states with the most warehouse construction under way, along with their largest distribution or logistics project: STATE TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION UNDERWAY (MSF) LARGEST DISTRIBUTION/ LOGISTICS PROJECT U/C 1 Georgia MSF by Lowes 2 Tennessee MSF by Amazon 3 Ohio k SF by Rubbermaid ; 400k by Target 4/5 California ,000 SF by Chino BURGEONING OPPORTUNITY IN DISTRIBUTION FOR HEALTHCARE United Parcel Service (UPS) has jumped out as a leader in developing a healthcare distribution network. Approximately 6.0 MSF of distribution space is dedicated to healthcare distribution in the U.S., Canada and Europe, and UPS is adding 800,000 SF more in 2013 the largest portion in Atlanta. In the U.S., UPS is focused on growing this distribution niche in Atlanta, Louisville, Mira Loma, CA and Reno. In light of the aging U.S. population and a rapidly growing healthcare industry, healthcare distribution is certainly a niche to monitor. However, its higher regulatory scrutiny and unique design requirements (such as temperature-controlled facilities) are steep barriers to entry for those lacking capital and knowledge of the healthcare industry. 4/5 Arizona ,000 SF by Estrela Logistics Capital for new construction is scarce, as banks remain on the sidelines unless the warehouse project is a build-to-suit for owner occupancy or is pre-leased to ensure break-even debt service. The risk of overbuilding is low, given the scarcity of debt capital for speculative construction and the limited degree of speculative warehouse construction under way at year-end 2012 (less than 10 MSF), so prospects for further improvement in both vacancy and rental rates remain favorable for However, rising construction costs are a concern that spans all commercial property types. It may surprise many to learn that construction costs never actually declined during the financial crisis and the ensuing recession. As documented by ENR Construction, costs have risen 17% since the end of 2007, and are up over 5.0 percent since February Investors and developers considering new construction investments should budget construction cost increases at double the CPI for 2013 and 2014, due to pressures on labor and materials. ENGINEERING NEWS-RECORD S CONSTRUCTION COST INDEX YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG NOTE: CONSTRUCTION COSTS NEVER DROPPED POST-2007 & ARE RISING AT A FASTER PACE INDEX METHODOLOGY: 200 hours of common labor at the 20-city average of common labor rates, plus 25 cwt of standard structural steel shapes at the mill price prior to 1996 and the fabricated 20-city price from 1996, plus tons of portland cement at the 20-city price, plus 1,088 board-ft of 2x4 lumber at the 20-city price. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 7

8 Transaction Activity Industrial warehouse property transactions were up 4 percent in 2012 to $36.9 billion, despite a dearth of portfolios and investment-grade warehouses for sale. Approximately 37 percent of these transactions (13.5 billion) occurred in Q4 2012, making it the most active quarter for industrial warehouse transactions since Q Cap rates continue to compress, and prices were up 6 percent over 2011, according to Real Capital Analytics Industrial Year in Review. Capital Markets What is better than improving office property type fundamentals? For those that purchased any of the 4,000 industrial warehouse properties that traded in 2012, the answer is availability of capital. Domestic and foreign sources are flush with capital ready to invest in tangible assets like real estate, that can offer 2.5 to 3.0 times the yield offered by the U.S. government s 10-year Treasury bond. And, the CMBS debt markets are opening up again after four consecutive years of annual new issuance below $50 billion. Underwriting terms and pricing spreads have also compressed in favor of borrowers. Improving market conditions have enabled even properties with elevated vacancy rates to become financeable again due to the low DSCR hurdle provided by sub-5.0 percent interest rates and 90 percent LTVs. Declining CMBS delinquency rates have further aided new issuance interest, and have CMBS investors enthusiastic about 2013 new issuance increasing 50 percent over 2012 s $50 billion level to 75 billion. If you have tenants, and can meet a 1.4 DSCR using a 4.5% loan coupon, the capital markets are once again open to refinance your industrial building. CONCLUSION Let s return to the question posed at the beginning of this report: Q. What do nature and physics tell us about the V formation, and how is it applicable to industrial real estate? A. It tells us that it is the most efficient pattern of movement that expends 50 percent less energy. The North American industrial markets are re-engineering their supply chains and distribution channels with a V formation in mind and a goal of achieving enhanced efficiencies in both costs and time. The growth in e-commerce and expansion of the Panama Canal lock system are converging to force manufacturers, retailers, and suppliers to make large CapEx investments in new facilities, particularly in markets aligned with post-panamax ports, with intermodal facilities along one or more Class-1 railroads, and in proximity to the most efficient overnight air cargo airports. $@ PERCENTAGE 30+ DAYS DELINQUENT BY PROPERTY TYPE JAN 13 DEC 12 NOV 12 3 MON 6 MON 1 YEAR INDUSTRIAL LODGING MULTIFAMILY OFFICE RETAIL Source: Trepp January 2013 CMBS Delinquency Report Industrial markets V formation The driving force behind demand for industrial real estate as we approach the first post-panamax decade is increased efficiency, in order to offset global competition and pressure of a global economic climate mired in debt, and likely to see ongoing tepid GDP growth. P. 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

9 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY NORTHEAST INVENTORY DEC. 31, 2012 (SF) NEW CONSTRUCTION Q (SF) CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) ABSORPTION Q (SF) VACANCY RATE SEPT. 30, 2012 (%) VACANCY RATE DEC. 31, 2012 (%) Baltimore, MD 225,922,841 67, , , Boston, MA 154,079, ,874 1,109,585 (263,862) Hartford, CT 97,321, ,061 - (273,114) Long Island, NY 161,321, (385,086) New Jersey Central 353,576, ,800 1,027,000 1,032, New Jersey Northern 374,424, , Philadelphia, PA 409,316,988 1,265,000 2,204,530 2,900, Pittsburgh, PA 168,333, , , Washington, DC 278,296,443 49,600 1,933,098 1,223, Northeast Total 2,222,592,436 2,022,455 6,813,146 6,026, SOUTH Atlanta, GA 608,573,705 1,370,640 4,521,578 1,791, Birmingham, AL 110,692, , , Charleston, SC 32,042, , , , Charlotte, NC 295,314, , ,765 1,615, Columbia, SC 37,853, , Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 717,071,304 1,693,118 1,279,743 3,223, Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 123,353, ,969 (14,666) Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 183,028,727 1,015,740-1,730, Houston, TX 482,535, ,497 2,554,598 1,440, Jacksonville, FL 121,961,127 41, , Little Rock, AR 45,018,927 18, ,443 59, Louisville, KY 180,269,470 16,000-2,227, Memphis, TN 217,057,417 1,372,305 1,219,892 2,905, Miami, FL 220,661,704 53,000 1,008, , Nashville, TN 88,921,700 1,300,000-1,369, Orlando, FL 145,229,723 87, , Raleigh, NC 120,097,770 36, , , Richmond, VA 112,863,513 2,146, ,489 2,223, Savannah, GA 44,421, , , Tampa Bay, FL 212,832,724-35, , West Palm Beach, FL 60,002,683-20, , South Total 4,159,804,498 10,462,334 14,447,013 21,930, COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 9

10 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY (continued) MIDWEST INVENTORY DEC. 31, 2012 (SF) NEW CONSTRUCTION Q (SF) CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) ABSORPTION Q (SF) VACANCY RATE SEPT. 30, 2012 (%) VACANCY RATE DEC. 31, 2012 (%) Chicago, IL 1,310,785, ,153 4,768,149 7,006, Cincinnati, OH 274,600, , , Cleveland, OH 477,772, ,492 22, , Columbus, OH 211,821, , ,103 1,455, Detroit, MI 556,741,643 1,640,405-4,685, Grand Rapids, MI 108,946, , , Indianapolis, IN 282,953,005 1,306,295 2,303,616 1,091, Kansas City, MO-KS 234,052, ,441 2,466, , Milwaukee, WI 223,336, , , Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 252,239, ,000 1,585, , Omaha, NE 67,749,057-35, , St. Louis, MO 260,993, , , Midwest Total 4,261,993,130 5,630,501 13,153,173 18,730, WEST Bakersfield, CA 33,401, , ,085 1,026, Boise, ID 35,010, , , , Denver, CO 215,855, , ,271 1,298, Fairfield, CA 46,831,953-48, , Fresno, CA 48,600, , Honolulu, HI 39,179, , Las Vegas, NV 109,030, , , Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA 386,235,800 1,759,500 8,741,800 4,405, Los Angeles, CA 882,677, ,500 1,608,600 2,235, Oakland, CA 141,540, ,575 99, Orange County, CA 200,123, ,200 (576,500) Phoenix, AZ 272,634,685 2,008,075 4,683,704 2,519, Pleasanton/Walnut Creek, CA 33,187, , Portland, OR 200,393,745-2,170, , Reno, NV 87,415, , Sacramento, CA 188,076, , , San Diego, CA 186,979, , ,656 1,031, San Francisco Peninsula, CA 41,071, (242,772) San Jose/Silicon Valley 251,868,566 99, ,100 (77,141) Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 262,474, ,758 1,150, Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 94,049,012 29, , West Total 3,756,639,515 5,880,423 21,181,202 17,334, U.S. TOTAL 14,401,029,579 23,995,713 55,594,534 64,021, P. 10 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

11 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY SALES PRICE AND CAP RATE AS OF DECEMBER 2012 SALES PRICE CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST ABSORPTION FORECAST RENT FORECAST NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD Boston, MA Hartford, CT Long Island, NY Close to zero New Jersey Central New Jersey Northern Philadelphia, PA Pittsburgh, PA Washington, DC Northeast Total* SOUTH Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Columbia, SC Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Houston, TX Jacksonville, FL Little Rock, AR Close to zero Louisville, KY Memphis, TN Miami, FL Nashville, TN Orlando, FL Raleigh, NC Richmond, VA Close to zero Savannah, GA Close to zero Tampa Bay, FL West Palm Beach, FL South Total* * Straight averages used. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 11

12 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY SALES PRICE AND CAP RATE AS OF DECEMBER 2012 (continued) SALES PRICE CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST ABSORPTION FORECAST RENT FORECAST MIDWEST Chicago, IL Close to zero Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbus, OH Detroit, MI Grand Rapids, MI Indianapolis, IN Kansas City, MO-KS Milwaukee, WI Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Omaha, NE St. Louis, MO Midwest Total* WEST Bakersfield, CA Boise, ID Denver, CO Fairfield, CA Fresno, CA Close to zero Honolulu, HI Las Vegas, NV Close to zero Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA Los Angeles, CA Close to zero Oakland, CA Orange County, CA Phoenix, AZ Pleasanton/Walnut Creek, CA Portland, OR Reno, NV Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco Peninsula, CA Close to zero San Jose/Silicon Valley Close to zero Seattle/Puget Sound, WA Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA West Total* U.S. TOTAL* * Straight averages used. P. 12 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

13 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY RENTS AS OF DECEMBER 2012 NORTHEAST WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE BULK SPACE FLEX/SERVICE SPACE Baltimore, MD TECH/R&D SPACE Boston, MA Hartford, CT Long Island, NY New Jersey Central New Jersey Northern Philadelphia, PA Pittsburgh, PA Washington, DC Northeast Total* SOUTH Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Columbia, SC Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Houston, TX Jacksonville, FL Little Rock, AR Louisville, KY Memphis, TN Miami, FL Nashville, TN Orlando, FL Raleigh, NC Richmond, VA Savannah, GA Tampa Bay, FL West Palm Beach, FL South Total* * Straight averages used. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 13

14 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY RENTS AS OF DECEMBER 2012 (continued) MIDWEST WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE BULK SPACE FLEX/SERVICE SPACE Chicago, IL TECH/R&D SPACE Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbus, OH Detroit, MI Grand Rapids, MI Indianapolis, IN Kansas City, MO-KS Milwaukee, WI Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Omaha, NE St. Louis, MO Midwest Total* WEST Bakersfield, CA Boise, ID Denver, CO Fairfield, CA Fresno, CA Honolulu, HI Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA Los Angeles, CA Oakland, CA Orange County, CA Phoenix, AZ Pleasanton/Walnut Creek, CA Portland, OR Reno, NV Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco Peninsula, CA San Jose/Silicon Valley Seattle/Puget Sound, WA Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA West Total* U.S. TOTAL* * Straight averages used. P. 14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

15 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY EXISTING INVENTORY DEC. 31, 2012 (SF) NEW CONSTRUCTION Q (SF) CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) Calgary, AB 125,068, ,126 2,706,068 Edmonton, AB 79,221, ,632 1,449,743 Halifax, NS 7,604,256 7, ,000 Montréal, QC 347,995, , ,060 Ottawa, ON 28,070, ,500 Regina, SK 16,897, , ,000 Saskatoon, SK 20,840, , ,000 Toronto, ON 762,813,784 1,300,000 5,621,750 Vancouver, BC 182,663,027 1,147, ,791 Victoria, BC 8,883, , ,030 Waterloo Region, ON 60,658,893-98,454 Winnipeg, MB 79,692,082 35, ,435 CANADA TOTAL 1,720,409,644 3,671,336 12,154,831 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY ABSORPTION Q (SF) VACANCY RATE SEPT. 30, 2012 (%) VACANCY RATE DEC. 31, 2012 (%) Calgary, AB (106,694) Edmonton, AB 507, Halifax, NS (115,054) Montréal, QC (1,484) Ottawa, ON 67, Regina, SK 190, Saskatoon, SK 90, Toronto, ON 4,958, Vancouver, BC 1,399, Victoria, BC Waterloo Region, ON 36, Winnipeg, MB (130,105) CANADA TOTAL* 6,896, % 4.25% * Straight averages used. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 15

16 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY SALES PRICE AND CAP RATE AS OF DECEMBER 2012 SALES PRICE (CAD PSF) CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST ABSORPTION FORECAST RENT FORECAST Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Montréal, QC Ottawa, ON Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto, ON Vancouver, BC Victoria, BC Close to zero Waterloo Region, ON Winnipeg, MB Close to zero CANADA TOTAL* * Straight averages used CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY RENTS AS OF DECEMBER 2012 WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE (CAD PSF) BULK SPACE (CAD PSF) FLEX/SERVICE SPACE (CAD PSF) TECH/R&D SPACE (CAD PSF) Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Montréal, QC Ottawa, ON Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto, ON 4.83 Vancouver, BC Victoria, BC Waterloo Region, ON Winnipeg, MB CANADA TOTAL* * Straight averages used P. 16 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

17 INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RATE RANKINGS US VACANCY RATE DEC 31, 2012 (%) Bakersfield, CA 2.80 Honolulu, HI 3.75 Los Angeles, CA 4.21 Orange County, CA 4.90 Omaha, NE 5.09 Houston, TX 5.15 Indianapolis, IN 5.26 Long Island, NY 5.59 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 5.82 Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA 6.45 Milwaukee, WI 6.51 Miami, FL 6.57 Kansas City, MO-KS 6.72 Portland, OR 7.18 Grand Rapids, MI 7.29 West Palm Beach, FL 7.29 Denver, CO 7.45 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 8.12 Pittsburgh, PA 8.21 Oakland, CA 8.23 New Jersey Northern 8.35 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 8.35 St. Louis, MO 8.42 Columbus, OH 8.76 Columbia, SC 8.78 Nashville, TN 8.82 U.S. AVERAGE 8.92 Louisville, KY 8.96 Cleveland, OH 9.05 Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 9.16 New Jersey Central 9.17 Hartford, CT 9.19 Cincinnati, OH 9.22 Fresno, CA 9.26 Tampa Bay, FL 9.36 Birmingham, AL 9.39 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 9.48 Boise, ID 9.51 Chicago, IL 9.53 Philadelphia, PA 9.75 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 9.85 San Diego, CA 9.87 Richmond, VA 9.98 Jacksonville, FL Orlando, FL Baltimore, MD Pleasanton/Walnut Creek, CA Raleigh, NC Charleston, SC Washington, DC San Jose/Silicon Valley Reno, NV Little Rock, AR Fairfield, CA Detroit, MI Charlotte, NC Savannah, GA Atlanta, GA Memphis, TN Phoenix, AZ Sacramento, CA Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Las Vegas, NV Boston, MA INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RATE RANKINGS CANADA VACANCY RATE DEC 31, 2012 (%) Winnipeg, MB 2.97 Edmonton, AB 3.35 Regina, SK 3.51 Vancouver, BC 3.67 Toronto, ON 4.13 Victoria, BC 4.15 CANADA AVERAGE 4.25 Montréal, QC 4.34 Saskatoon, SK 4.94 Calgary, AB 5.05 Ottawa, ON 5.76 Waterloo Region, ON 6.80 Halifax, NS 9.65 Glossary Absorption Net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Bulk Space Warehouse space 100,000 square feet or more with minimum ceiling heights of 24 feet. All loading is dock-height. Flex Space Single-story buildings having 10- to 18-foot ceilings with both floor-height and dock-height loading. Includes wide variation in office space utilization, ranging from retail and personal service, to distribution, light industrial and occasional heavy industrial use. Inventory Includes all existing multi- or single- tenant leased and owner-occupied industrial warehouse, light manufacturing, flex and R&D properties greater than or equal to 10,000 square feet. New Construction Includes completed speculative and build-to-suit construction. New construction quoted on a net basis after any demolitions or conversions. Service Space Single-story (or mezzanine) with 10- to 16-foot ceilings with frontage treatment on one side and dock-height loading or grade-level roll-up doors on the other. Less than 15 office. Tech/R&D One- and two-story, 10- to 15-foot ceiling heights with up to 50 office/dry lab space (remainder in wet lab, workshop, storage and other support), with dock-height and floor-height loading. Triple Net Rent Includes rent payable to the landlord, and does not include additional expenses such as taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial and utilities. All industrial and high-tech/r&d rents in this report are quoted on an annual, triple net per square foot basis in U.S. and Canadian dollars. Vacancy Rate Percentage of total inventory available (both vacant and occupied) as at the survey date including direct vacant and sublease space. Warehouse 50,000 square feet or more with up to 15 percent office space, the balance being general warehouse space with 18- to 30-foot ceiling heights. All loading is dock-height. 522 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 147 Canada: 37 Latin America: 19 Asia Pacific: 201 EMEA: billion in annual revenue 1.25 billion square feet under management Over 12,300 professionals and staff COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 601 Union Street, Suite 4800 Seattle, WA TEL FOR MORE INFORMATION K.C. Conway Executive Managing Director, Market Analytics USA TEL kc.conway@colliers.com James Cook Director of Research USA TEL james.cook@colliers.com CONTRIBUTORS Jeff Simonson Senior Research Analyst USA Jennifer Macatiag Graphic Designer USA Cliff Plank National Director GIS & Mapping Copyright 2013 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Accelerating success. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 17