Journal of Cleaner Production

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1 Journal of Cleaner roducton xxx (20) e Contents lsts avalable at ScenceDrect Journal of Cleaner roducton journal homepage: Factor analyss of energy-related carbon emssons: a case study of Bejng Fengyan Fan a, b, Yaln Le a, b, * a School of Humantes and Economc Management, Chna Unversty of Geoscences, Bejng 0008, Chna b Key Laboratory of Carryng Capacty Assessment for Resource and Envronment, Mnstry of Land and Resource, Bejng 0008, Chna artcle nfo abstract Artcle hstory: Receved 2 May 20 Receved n revsed form July 20 Accepted 6 July 20 Avalable onlne xxx Keywords: Carbon emssons Bejng Generalzed Fsher ndex Factor decomposton olcy suggestons Carbon emssons n Chna have attracted ncreasng world attenton wth rapd urbanzaton of ths country. It s crtcal for the government to dentfy the key factors causng these emssons and take controllng measures. Consstent results have not been acheved yet although some research has been conducted on the factors leadng to emssons. Meanwhle, there s stll consderable room to mprove the methods of prevous research. Index decomposton analyss (IDA) s the man method for quantfyng the mpact of dfferent factors on carbon emssons. At present, the wdely used forms of IDA are prmarly the Laspeyres and the Dvsa ndex methods. Compared wth the Laspeyres and the majorty of the Dvsa ndex methods, the generalzed Fsher ndex (GFI) decomposton method can elmnate the resduals and has better factor decomposton characterstcs. Ths paper chooses Bejng as a typcal example and analyzes the factors causng carbon emssons. Based on the extended Kaya dentty, we bult a multvarate generalzed Fsher ndex decomposton model to measure the mpacts of economc growth, populaton sze, energy ntensty and energy structure on energy-related carbon emssons from 99 to 202 n Bejng. The results show that the sustaned growth of economc output n Bejng was the leadng factor n carbon emssons. opulaton sze had a stmulatng effect on the growth of carbon emssons durng ths perod; the pullng effect ncreased after 200 and then decreased slghtly after 20 wth a cumulatve effect of 6.%. Energy ntensty was the prmary factor restranng carbon emssons, and the nhbton effect ncreased yearly. The contnuous optmzaton of the energy structure had no obvous nhbtory effect on carbon emssons. To control carbon emssons, Bejng should contnue to adjust the mode of economc development and approprately control the populaton sze whle mprovng energy effcency. 20 The Authors. ublshed by Elsever Ltd. Ths s an open access artcle under the CC BY-NC-ND lcense ( Introducton Wth the rapd development of Chna's economy, energy consumpton based on fossl fuel contnues to ncrease. Ar polluton, greenhouse effect and other envronmental problems have become ncreasngly promnent, serously restrctng the sustanable development of Chna's economy. As Chna's captal and ts poltcal and cultural center, Bejng should play a leadng role n mtgatng and adaptng to clmate change. Snce enterng the 2st century, Bejng's economy has mantaned rapd growth, wth an average gross domestc product (GD) annual growth rate of.%; energy * Correspondng author. Rm. 0, Admnstratve Offce Buldng, Chna Unversty of Geoscences, Bejng 0008, Chna. Tel.: þ , þ (moble); fax: þ E-mal address: leyaln@cugb.edu.cn (Y. Le). ntensty has fallen sharply, whereas the energy consumpton structure and consumpton pattern have mproved. However, although Bejng has made remarkable achevements, economc growth contnues to depend on energy. Energy consumpton grew at an average annual rate of.6% from 99 to 202. Correspondngly, carbon emssons also ncreased sgnfcantly. Faced wth a lack of resources, energy restrctons have gradually become a bottleneck n restrctng the Bejng's economc and socal development and reman a challenge for energy conservaton. For better mplementaton of emsson reducton targets, the contrbuton of factors nfluencng carbon emssons from energy consumpton n Bejng should be explored and relevant polces and effectve measures must be formulated to control and reduce carbon emssons accordng to the nfluencng factors. These tasks are urgently needed to acheve the goal of buldng a green Bejng, whch has postve practcal sgnfcance for the successful operaton of the Chnese low-carbon economy at the provncal level / 20 The Authors. ublshed by Elsever Ltd. Ths s an open access artcle under the CC BY-NC-ND lcense ( lease cte ths artcle n press as: Fan, F., Le, Y., Factor analyss of energy-related carbon emssons: a case study of Bejng, Journal of Cleaner roducton (20),

2 2 F. Fan, Y. Le / Journal of Cleaner roducton xxx (20) e 2. Lterature revew Accurate analyss of the reasons for the ncrease n carbon emssons s crtcal to fndng a path to carbon reducton. Index decomposton analyss (IDA) as an analytcal framework to study the characterstcs and mechansms of change frst expanded from the feld of energy consumpton to energy-related carbon doxde (CO 2 ) emssons n 99, and has gradually become the man research method for analyzng changes to carbon emssons (Xu and Ang, 20). At present, the most commonly used IDA are the Laspeyres and the Dvsa ndex methods. Complete decomposton analyss was used by Das and aul (20) to dentfy the causes of changes n CO 2 emssons from household consumpton between 99e9 and 2006e0 n Inda. The results ndcate that actvty, structure and populaton effects are the man causes of the ncrease n CO 2 emssons from household fuel consumpton. Dakoulak et al. (2006) splt the perod 990e2002 nto two equal ntervals and reled on the refned Laspeyres model startng from the major energy consumng sectors and aggregatng the obtaned effects for estmatng ther relatve mpacts on CO 2 emssons n Greece. Ang and andyan (99) and Lee et al. (200) used the Dvsa decomposton method and adaptve weghtng Dvsa decomposton method, respectvely, to analyze the factors affectng carbon emssons n the manufacturng sectors of dfferent countres. The Laspeyres and the majorty of the Dvsa ndex methods cannot handle the resduals exstng n the decomposton process, whch renders the model unable to explan all of the changes n carbon emssons. Ang and Cho (99) put forward an mproved method called logarthmc mean Dvsa ndex (LMDI), whch has been wdely appled n practcal research. Fernandez et al. (20) appled the LMDI method to quantfy the drvng forces behnd changes n CO 2 emssons n the EU-2 n 200e2008 and noted n general terms that the ncreased effcency n CO 2 emssons by European countres had been suffcent to overrde the jont pressure of populaton and economc growth on CO 2 emssons. Lu et al. (200) and Deng et al. (20) also used the LMDI decomposton method to explore the reasons and regulatons of the Chnese ndustral sector and the changes n carbon emssons n dfferent regons of Chna. As observed n the above lterature, the Laspeyres and the Dvsa ndex methods are chosen more often n the decomposton of carbon emssons. As noted above, these methods have ther defects; although LMDI can elmnate the resduals, ts formulae contan logarthmc terms that cannot accommodate negatve values (Ang et al., 200). The generalzed Fsher ndex (GFI) has better decomposton characterstcs because t can overcome the shortcomngs of the Laspeyres ndex and the Dvsa ndex and the tradtonal two-factor analyss of the Fsher ndex well. Ang et al. (200) compared the GFI method wth fve wdely known IDA methods. In the comparson, factor-reversal, tme-reversal, proportonalty, aggregaton, zero-value robust and negatve-value robust tests had been done. The GFI method faled only the aggregate test and passed the remanng tests, achevng complete factor decomposton, whch provde a powerful bass for reasonable selecton of the GFI for factor decomposton. Some scholars have analyzed the factors n carbon emssons from energy consumpton n Bejng. Wang et al. (202) and Zhu and Zhang (202) adopted STIRAT to examne the relatonshp between carbon emssons produced n the process of economc development n Bejng and dfferent drvng factors, wth dfferent results. Wang et al. (202) noted that CO 2 emssons were postvely nfluenced by urbanzaton level, economc level and ndustry proporton and negatvely nfluenced by the proporton of tertary ndustry, energy ntensty and R&D output. Zhu and Zhang (202) confrmed the contrbuton of the level of urbanzaton and populaton to carbon emssons but noted that per capta GD and energy ntensty had less effect than urbanzaton and populaton. The proporton of secondary ndustry was negatvely correlated wth CO 2. Based on nputeoutput structural decomposton analyss, Wang et al. (20) analyzed the drvng forces of the ncrease n CO 2 emssons n Bejng from both producton and fnal demand perspectves durng 99e200. Accordng to the results, the growth n CO 2 emssons n Bejng was drven manly by changes n producton structure and populaton growth, partly offset by a reducton n the ntensty of CO 2 emssons and a declne n per capta fnal demand volume durng the study perod. Change n fnal demand structure had a lmted effect on the change n CO 2 emssons n Bejng. From the fnal demand perspectve, urban trade, urban resdental consumpton, government consumpton and fxed captal formaton were manly responsble for the boom n emssons. Tan et al. (20) conducted a structural decomposton analyss to quantfy the contrbutons of technologcal and soco-economc factors to Bejng's rapd growth n CO 2 emssons from 99 to 200. The results showed that the fnal demand for export and nvestment led to varatons n CO 2 emssons n Bejng for the same perod by 6% and 2%, respectvely; the change n producton structure jontly contrbuted % of the total ncrease n CO 2 emssons; and mproved energy ntensty was Bejng's prmary source of decarbonzng ts economc development n 99e200. Zhang and Xe (20) ntroduced the same method and analyzed the drvng factors of carbon emssons n Bejng at the levels of the overall stuaton, dfferent ndustres and dfferent ndustral sectors n 99e200. The results proved the pullng effect of economc growth and the nhbtory effect of energy ntensty on carbon emssons and noted that domestc exports and consumpton overrde exports and nvestment were major contrbutors to the ncreased emssons n the sze expanson effect. In the studes usng the LMDI decomposton technque to decompose the changes n Bejng's carbon emssons n dfferent perods, Lu et al. (200), Lu and Chen (20), L (20), andwu et al. (20) produced results consstent wth those of prevous research on the role of economc growth and energy ntensty n carbon emssons. As for the mpact of energy structure and ndustral structure, the researchers' opnons dffer. Wu et al. (20) expressed the vew that energy structure and ndustry structure have greatly contrbuted to carbon emsson reducton. Lu et al. (200) and Lu and Chen (20) noted that energy structure has played a postve role n reducng carbon emssons but that the effect s small. L (20) further noted that the contrbuton of energy structure to carbon emsson reducton n Bejng s not large, showng a further weakenng trend after As observed, the factors nfluencng carbon emssons have been analyzed wth dfferent methods by current scholars; however, the GFI model s used by few scholars, and the conclusons have not been the same. The GFI model, as the best choce for factor decomposton, s seldom used n the emprcal analyss of carbon emssons n Chna and s used even less at the regonal level. Tan and Zhang (20) and L and Wang (2008) respectvely constructed decomposton models of per capta carbon emssons and regonal energy-related carbon emssons n Chna. However, when calculatng the contrbutons of the nfluencng factors, they volated the multplcaton form of the GFI and adopted the proporton form for calculaton and analyss; thus, the conclusons are not accurate. From the above analyss, ths paper selects the GFI method to explore the drvng forces of carbon emssons n Bejng. lease cte ths artcle n press as: Fan, F., Le, Y., Factor analyss of energy-related carbon emssons: a case study of Bejng, Journal of Cleaner roducton (20),

3 F. Fan, Y. Le / Journal of Cleaner roducton xxx (20) e. Methodology and data As noted above, the GFI method can overcome the shortcomngs of the Laspeyres and the Dvsa ndex methods and the lmtatons of tradtonal Fsher ndex analyss wth only two factors; therefore, t has better decomposton characterstcs. In ths paper, we extended the Kaya dentty and analyzed varous factors on carbon emssons usng the GFI method... The extended Kaya dentty D X D X2 2 6 ¼ 2 6 ¼ X T X0 2 X 0 X0 2 X 0 XT 2 X 0 X0 2 $ $ X T XT 2 X 0 XT 2 X T XT 2 X T X () (6) The Kaya dentty was frst proposed by the Japanese scholar Yoch Kaya (Kaya, 990) at an ICC workshop; t s a useful tool for analyzng the factors n carbon emssons (Albrecht et al., 2002). Its expresson s as follows: C ¼ðC=EÞðE=GDÞðGD=Þ () The Kaya dentty relates energy-related carbon emssons wth energy (E), economc development level (GD) and populaton (). Its structure s relatvely smple and explores only the quanttatve relatonshp among carbon emssons, energy ntensty, economc development and populaton at a natonal level wthout consderng the nfluence of structural factors. Consequently, we added energy structure as a factor to the Kaya dentty, consderng data avalablty, and decomposed carbon emssons nto energy structure, energy ntensty, economc output and populaton. The expanson of the equaton s as follows: C ¼ X C ¼ X C E E E E Y Y (2) where C s carbon emssons; C s the carbon emssons of the th fuel type; E and E represent the th fuel consumpton and the total prmary energy consumpton, respectvely; Y s gross domestc product (GD); and s populaton. C /E s the carbon emssons of the th fuel type, namely the carbon emsson coeffcent; E /E represents the total energy consumpton share of the th fuel type; E/Y s energy consumpton per unt GD, namely energy ntensty; and Y/ represents the per capta GD, namely economc output. Thus, the change n carbon emssons s decomposed nto the followng factors: carbon emsson effcency, energy structure, energy ntensty, economc output and populaton..2. Generalzed Fsher ndex decomposton The Fsher ndex decomposton method was frst proposed by Fsher n 922. The model s expressed as follows: V ¼ X V ¼ X X X 2 () where V represents an aggregate ndcator, denotes the subcategory of the aggregate, and X and X 2 ndcate the decomposed varables. The effect assocated wth changes n X and X 2 from year 0 to year T s gven n equaton (): D ¼ VT V 0 ¼ X T XT 2 X 0 X0 2 ¼ D X $D X2 () Accordng to the Fsher ndex formula, we have the followng: The tradtonal Fsher model wth factors s used to study energy and relatve gas emssons by some scholars (Lu and Ang, 200; Boyd and Roop, 200); however, n emprcal studes, two factors are nsuffcent to solve ths problem. Ang et al. (200) extended the two factors nto multple factors and proposed the GFI method. The specfc steps are as follows: V, the total ndex, s composed of n elements; therefore: V ¼ X X X 2,,,X n () Defne the set N ¼ {,2,$$$,n} where the cardnalty of N s n. S s a subset of N, for whch the cardnalty s s 0. Defne a functon V(S) ¼ ð Q X T Q X l m 0 Þ and VðFÞ ¼ ð Q Xm 0 Þ where F s a null l2s m2n\s m2n set and superscrpts denote the current year T and the base year 0. Accordng to the geometrc average prncple, V T /V 0 s dvded nto n parts, and the decomposton results of factor X j (j ¼, 2,$$$, n) are gven by: D Xj ¼ Y SN j2s ¼ Y SN j2s VðSÞ VðS\fjgÞ VðSÞ VðS\fjgÞ n s 0 $ n ðs 0 Þ!ðn s 0 Þ! n! D Xj ðj ¼ ; 2; $$$; nþ s the decomposton factor of the GFI method. Accordng to the above method, formula (2) s defned as follows: the energy-related carbon emsson coeffcent X ¼ C /E, energy structure X 2 ¼ E /E, energy ntensty X ¼ E/Y, economc development X ¼ Y/, and populaton sze X ¼. Thus, the carbon emssons formula can be wrtten as: C ¼ X C ¼ X C E E Y E E Y ¼ X (8) X X 2 X X X (9) Generally speakng, the carbon emsson coeffcents of all types of fossl fuels X are fxed; therefore, the factors mpactng carbon emssons n Bejng are manly energy structure, energy ntensty, economc development and populaton sze. Its change can be decomposed nto: C T. C 0 ¼ D X D X2 D X D X (0) In equaton (0), C T s the carbon emssons n year T, C 0 s the carbon emssons n the base year, D X s energy structure effect, X s the product of the energy consumpton structure (E /E) and correspondng carbon emsson coeffcents (C /E ), D X2 s energy ntensty effect, D X s economc development effect, and D X s populaton sze effect. Among them lease cte ths artcle n press as: Fan, F., Le, Y., Factor analyss of energy-related carbon emssons: a case study of Bejng, Journal of Cleaner roducton (20),

4 F. Fan, Y. Le / Journal of Cleaner roducton xxx (20) e D X 2 6 ¼ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ X T X0 2 X0 X0 X 0 X0 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 X0 X0 X 0 XT 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 XT X0 X 0 XT 2 XT X0 X T XT 2 XT XT X 0 XT 2 XT XT $ $ X T X0 2 XT X0 X 0 X0 2 XT X0 X T XT 2 X0 XT X 0 XT 2 X0 XT $ $ X T X0 2 X0 XT X 0 X0 2 X0 XT X T X0 2 XT XT X 0 X0 2 XT XT 2 2 () D X 2 6 ¼ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ X 0 X0 2 X0 XT X 0 X0 2 X0 X0 X T X0 2 X0 XT X T X0 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 X0 XT X T XT 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 XT XT X T XT 2 XT X0 $ $ X 0 XT 2 X0 XT X 0 XT 2 X0 X0 X 0 XT 2 XT XT X 0 XT 2 XT X0 $ $ X 0 X0 2 XT XT X 0 X0 2 XT X0 X T X0 2 XT XT X T X0 2 XT X0 2 2 ().. Data sources D X2 2 6 ¼ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ X 0 XT 2 X0 X0 X 0 X0 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 X0 X0 X T X0 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 XT X0 X T X0 2 XT X0 X T XT 2 XT XT X T X0 2 XT XT $ $ X 0 XT 2 XT X0 X 0 X0 2 XT X0 X T XT 2 X0 XT X T X0 2 X0 XT $ $ X 0 XT 2 X0 XT X 0 X0 2 X0 XT X 0 XT 2 XT XT X 0 X0 2 XT XT 2 2 (2) Energy consumpton data n the transportaton sector are from energy balance tables for Bejng n the prevous Chna Energy Statstcal Yearbook. The selecton of fuel types references energy consumpton n dfferent areas accordng to the 20 Chna Energy Statstcs Yearbook. The fuel types are manly coal, coke, kerosene, gasolne, desel, fuel ol, and natural gas. Crude ol s a prmary fuel of whch the vast majorty s converted nto other fuels rather than used for drect consumpton; to avod repeated calculatons, crude ol s excluded from the calculaton process. To ensure comparablty among the data, energy sources were converted nto standard coal equvalent accordng to standard coal coeffcents from appendx of the 20 Chna Energy Statstcal Yearbook. Carbon emsson coeffcents upon the standard coal equvalent are obtaned wth reference to Zhao (2009). Other economc data are from past Bejng Statstcal Yearbooks. The sample data span the perod from 99 to 202, and the statstcal data are gven at current prces. To elmnate the mpact of prce fluctuatons, the GD was converted nto the 99 prce accordng to the correspondng prce.. Results and dscusson.. Results D X 2 6 ¼ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ 2 6 $ X 0 X0 2 XT X0 X 0 X0 2 X0 X0 X T X0 2 XT X0 X T X0 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 XT X0 X T XT 2 X0 X0 X T XT 2 XT XT X T XT 2 X0 XT $ $ X 0 XT 2 XT X0 X 0 XT 2 X0 X0 X T X0 2 XT XT X T X0 2 X0 XT $ $ X 0 X0 2 XT XT X 0 X0 2 X0 XT X 0 XT 2 XT XT X 0 XT 2 X0 XT 2 2 () From the factors nfluencng carbon emssons n formulas ()e(), we produce the decomposton results of changes n carbon emssons shown n Table and Fg.. As seen n Table and Fg., the total carbon emssons n Bejng are growng. From 99 to 200, the total change n emssons was relatvely stable, wth an average annual growth rate of 0.%. After 200, the growth n carbon emssons accelerated, wth an average annual growth rate of.9%. Economc development contrbuted exponentally to Bejng's growth n carbon emssons. The cumulatve effect of economc development on carbon emssons s., far greater than that of other factors. Economc development was the domnant factor n the growth of carbon emssons over the perod 99e202. opulaton sze was also a factor n the ncrease n carbon emssons from energy consumpton n Bejng; after 200, the trend ncreased annually, wth effect values greater than and a cumulatve effect reachng 6.%. Energy ntensty and energy structure are the nhbtory factors n carbon emssons. The energy ntensty ndex s bascally less than, the cumulatve effect s 0.266, and the contrbuton rate decreased annually from 0.98 n lease cte ths artcle n press as: Fan, F., Le, Y., Factor analyss of energy-related carbon emssons: a case study of Bejng, Journal of Cleaner roducton (20),

5 F. Fan, Y. Le / Journal of Cleaner roducton xxx (20) e Table Decomposton effect of carbon emssons n Bejng. Year Energy structure D X Energy ntensty D X2 Economc development D X opulaton sze D X Total effect of carbon emssons V 99e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e Fg.. Influencng factors of carbon emssons n Bejng from 99 to to n 202. The annual declne n energy ntensty s related to encouragement and support from the government for technologcal nnovaton n energy utlzaton n the Eleventh Fve- Year lan and Twelfth Fve-Year lan, and the standard system for polcy formulaton and other measures are constantly beng mproved. Consequently, energy-savng efforts have acheved remarkable results n Bejng. The nhbtory effect of the energy structure on carbon emssons s stll weaker than energy ntensty but s gradually ncreasng. Ths ncrease shows that the structure of energy consumpton domnated by coal n Bejng has not changed but that ol, natural gas and clean energy consumpton are growng n a bengn drecton. Between 99 and 200, the gap between the nhbtory effect of energy ntensty and energy structure and the pullng effect of populaton sze and economc development was the smallest, and the total change n carbon emssons was stable. After 200, the gap between the effect of energy ntensty and energy structure on carbon emssons and the contrbuton of the pullng factors expanded. The contrbuton of the nhbtng factors was less than the pullng effects of economc development and populaton sze, whch ncreased the total carbon emssons..2. Dscusson The factors nfluencng carbon emssons from energy consumpton n dfferent regons or ndustres have been studed by many scholars. The drvng factors of carbon emssons n Bejng are analyzed usng the GFI model n ths paper. Some of our results confrm prevous conclusons, and some contan new dscoveres..2.. Economc development The contrbuton of economc development to carbon emssons n Bejng s growng exponentally. The rapd growth of the economy demands more energy; from 99 to 202, the per capta GD ncreased by 2% (at the 99 constant prce), and energy consumpton ncreased by %. As a by-product of energy consumpton, carbon emssons contnue to ncrease. Ths concluson s smlar to that of Wang et al. (202), Zhang and Xe (20) and proves that Bejng's economc growth reles too much on energy consumpton. At the same tme, we see n Table that the pullng effect of economc development on carbon emssons n Bejng dd not show sustaned growth as economc development dd. Ths fndng shows that Bejng s vgorously developng ts economy whle constantly optmzng the ndustral structure adjustment, whch keeps the pullng effect of economc development on carbon emssons at a certan level. Ths paper further ndcated that the gap between the nhbtory factors and the contrbuton factors from 99 to 200 was mnmal; consequently, carbon emssons grew slowly. However, the contrbuton of the nhbtng factors was less than that of the pullng factors, leadng to the ncrease n carbon emssons. Lttle analyss of the results has been found n exstng research opulaton sze opulaton sze s another factor that ncreased carbon emssons from energy consumpton n Bejng. The cumulatve effect s 6.%, correspondng to the concluson of Lu and Chen (20) and Wang et al. (20). As the captal, Bejng has a dsproportonate share of advantageous resources, attractng a large quantty of outstandng talent. The large populaton wth rgd demand leads to the ncrease n carbon emssons. Furthermore, we fnd that the effect of populaton sze shows an ncreasng trend after 200 but a slght declne after 20, whch s closely related to Bejng's rapd urbanzaton n recent years. opulaton sze ncreases annually along wth urbanzaton. Urban nfrastructure and the consumpton of steel and cement n housng constructon need a large amount of energy, resultng n the growth n carbon emssons. However, after 20, Bejng mplemented a more strngent populaton polcy; as a result, the populaton sze effect declned slghtly..2.. Energy ntensty Generally speakng, a declne n energy ntensty has a postve effect on reducng carbon emssons. Analyses by Tan et al. (20), Wang et al. (20) and other scholars show that the contrbuton of lease cte ths artcle n press as: Fan, F., Le, Y., Factor analyss of energy-related carbon emssons: a case study of Bejng, Journal of Cleaner roducton (20),

6 6 F. Fan, Y. Le / Journal of Cleaner roducton xxx (20) e energy ntensty to the rate of carbon emssons s negatve; however, Zhu and Zhang (202) argues that the declne n energy ntensty s much lower than the economc and populaton growth; energy ntensty has almost no effect on reducng CO 2 emssons. The results of ths study show that energy ntensty ndces are less than, the contrbuton rate of carbon emssons n Bejng exhbts a sgnfcant nhbtory effect, confrmng the vews of most scholars; and ths nhbtory effect has been ncreasng annually, whch s closely related to the changng trend n energy ntensty. For a long tme, Bejng nssted on developng hgh-effcency and hgh-radaton ndustres, promotng the optmzaton and upgradng of ndustry structures and realzng the transformaton from a manufacturng economy to a servce economy. Due to takng the ntatve to elmnate a number of heavly pollutng ndustres does not meet the oblgatons of the captal cty, Bejng ntally formed a low-consumpton, -polluton and -emsson model of economc development. Amd constantly ncreasng energy consumpton, the entre ndustry shows a declnng trend, wth energy ntensty declnng from.982 standard coal per 0 yuan n 99 to 0.26 standard coal per 0 yuan n 202 (n 99 constant prce) d a declne of.6%, showng that Bejng's energy effcency has made great strdes..2.. Energy structure Scholars have not reached an agreement on the mpact of energy structure on carbon emssons n Bejng. Lu et al. (200) suggested that energy structure was affected by resource constrants n regons and s dffcult to change n the short term. Although n the long run, energy structure has a pullng effect on CO 2 emssons, the contrbuton s small at.6%. L (20) argues that energy structure has an nhbtory effect on the per capta carbon emssons of Bejng; the contrbuton s small, smlar to Lu et al. (200), further weakenng after However, Wu et al. (20) found that due to the great effort to reduce coal-fred emssons n wnter, the proporton of coal consumpton decreased sgnfcantly; therefore, energy structure made great contrbutons to reducng emssons n Bejng. The results regardng factors nfluencng changes n carbon emssons n our research are partly consstent wth Wu's concluson (20). We affrm the contrbuton of energy structure to carbon emssons and hghlght that energy structure exerts an nhbtory effect on the growth of carbon emssonsdexcept n 996e99 and 2002e200dand that the nhbton has been ncreasng year by year, whch dffers from the concluson of L (20). Snce 200, Bejng has adopted a seres of measures, such as substtutng ol and gas for coal to optmze energy structure and promote the stablty of the energy consumpton structure. The coal consumpton rate decreased from 6.6% n 99 to.9% n 202; the proporton of consumpton of clean energy s rsng, playng a postve role n nhbtng the growth of carbon emssons; however, the energy structure domnated by coal has not fundamentally changed. Therefore, although the energy structure nhbts the growth of carbon emssons, the nhbtory effect s small, contrary to the fndngs of Wu et al. (20).. Conclusons and suggestons Based on the data on energy consumpton and economc development durng 99e202 n Bejng, we establshed a factor decomposton model of energy-related carbon emssons wth the extended Kaya dentty and GFI method, quanttatvely analyzed the effects of energy structure, energy ntensty, economc development and populaton sze on carbon emssons from energy consumpton n Bejng, We draw the followng man conclusons and polcy recommendatons: ) The contrbuton of economc development to energyrelated carbon emssons n Bejng shows exponental growth. Energy consumpton caused by sustaned growth of economc output s stll a domnant factor n the growth of carbon emssons n Bejng; the cumulatve contrbuton s.%. The growth n economc output s necessary for meetng the basc natonal goals of survval and development. Envronmental pressure from mantanng the economc system s unavodable. Wth Bejng's rapd economc development, carbon emssons have also grown snce 200, manly because economc growth n Bejng has not elmnated the cty's dependence on energy consumpton. To control carbon emssons n the process of economc development, Bejng should frst change ts mode of economc development and dvert attenton from a onesded pursut of economc growth to the pursut of qualty economc growth and envronmental protecton. Furthermore, t should establsh and mprove related laws and regulatons on carbon emssons; revew these provsons' content on permts, dstrbuton, tradng and other matters; mplement an access threshold for enterprses on carbon tradng and carbon emssons; and acheve harmony among economc, socal and envronmental development. ) opulaton sze s another factor promotng the growth of energy-related carbon emssons n Bejng. The pullng effect on carbon emssons s obvous; after 200, the contrbuton rate shows an ncreasng trend year by year. However, snce 20, due to the mplementaton of a more strngent populaton control polcy, ts contrbuton rate has declned slghtly. Although the contrbuton of populaton s smaller than that of economc growth, populaton growth also promotes the growth of carbon emssons to a certan extent. The ncreasng populaton wll place greater pressure on the envronment. Therefore, n the process of urbanzaton, the government should mprove the exstng household regstraton system, ratonally dstrbute the populaton, actvely gude mgrant workers to and settle them n specfc urban areas, pay attenton to optmzng the structure and qualty of populaton, and control the populaton to acheve harmony wth envronmental capacty. ) Energy ntensty s a major contrbutor to the declne n carbon emssons. Wth the optmzaton of the energy structure and the mprovements n energy effcency, the nhbton of energy ntensty on carbon emssons has ncreased yearly. Improvng energy effcency s a wellknown method for reducng carbon emssons. In our analyss, energy ntensty has an obvous nhbtng effect on carbon emssons, and the trend contnues to grow. There s stll room to decrease carbon emssons by ncreasng energy effcency. In the future, Bejng should contnue to reduce energy consumpton per unt of GD, establsh a target responsblty system, and take a varety of approaches to accelerate the development of a low-carbon economy. For example, the captal could ncrease scentfc and technologcal nput nto energy, use advanced technology to mprove energy utlzaton effcency n hgh-energyconsumng ndustres, and fully explore the potental for savng energy and reducng the emssons of hgh-energyconsumng ndustral sectors. Addtonally, Bejng could actvely promote the transformaton and applcaton of clean energy technology achevements, realze the upgrade and transformaton of energy-savng technology, and reduce the loss of energy n the processes of producton, transformaton, transportaton and consumpton. lease cte ths artcle n press as: Fan, F., Le, Y., Factor analyss of energy-related carbon emssons: a case study of Bejng, Journal of Cleaner roducton (20),

7 F. Fan, Y. Le / Journal of Cleaner roducton xxx (20) e v) Energy structure plays an nhbtory role n the growth of carbon emssons. Its nhbtory effect s weaker than that of energy ntensty. However, wth the optmzaton of energy structure, the nhbton effect of energy structure has enhanced yearly. Because the tradtonal energy s hghly pollutng and a dwndlng stock, the optmzaton and adjustment of the energy consumpton structure wll be crucal to savng energy and reducng consumpton. Constraned by energy storage and economc condtons, Bejng's economc, scentfc and technology allow a new energy strategy to reduce emssons. Therefore, postvely constructng a dverse, safe, clean, and effcent energy supply and consumpton system; promotng the applcaton and popularzaton of no- or low-carbon energy, such as solar, wnd, nuclear and tdal; and achevng the substtuton of tradtonal fossl energy wll further ease Bejng's carbon emssons. Addtonally, to strengthen the adjustment of the energy structure, the government should provde support n the forms of tax ncentves, captal, technology, markets and other aspects of envronmental protecton; create a favorable envronment for the development of clean energy; and reduce the emsson of greenhouse gases from the sourcng and producton processes. Acknowledgments The authors express sncere thanks for the fnancal support from the Natonal Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna under Grant No. 200 and the support from the Development and Research Center of Chna Geologcal Survey under Grant No We also would lke to thank the edtors and three anonymous referees for ther helpful comments that have mproved our manuscrpt a lot. References Albrecht, J., Franços, D., Schoors, K., A Shapley decomposton of carbon emssons wthout resduals. Energy olcy 0, 2e6. Ang, B.W., Cho, K.H., 99. Decomposton of aggregate energy and gas emsson ntenstes for ndustry: a refned Dvsa ndex method. Energy J. 8 (), 9e. 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