Indonesian Palm Oil Industry Under Future Climate Change

Transcription

1 Indonesian Palm Oil Industry Under Future Climate Change Prof. Dr. Edvin Aldrian, Professor of Meteorology and Climatology BPPT IPCC Working Group 1 Vice Chair World Plantation Conference and Exhibition WPLACE 2017 Towards Sustainable Palm Oil Industry: Policy Coherence and Bioeconomy Perspective Jakarta October 2017

2 Presentation Outline - Global challenges - Forest Carbon Capacity in Indonesia - Palm Oil and Climate Change - IPCC Reports

3 Global Challenges

4 Limit of Earth carrying capacity Rockström, et al Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32

5 Population, welfare and emission The future of the climate system (and our survival) depends on our ability to decouple future emissions from the other two factors: population and economic growth Raupach et al. (2007, PNAS)

6 Ambient CO2 measurement Trend= 2.67ppm (logarithmic) Est Dec ppm Est Dec %= ppm

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8 Forest Carbon Capacity in Indonesia

9 Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm BMKG Emission from Land Use Change Tropical deforestation 13 million ha per year Period: Tropical Americas 40 % Tropical Asia 25 % Tropical Africa 35 % Total contribution : 1.5 Pg C y -1 FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS,

10 BMKG Net Primary Production (NPP) and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) NPP shows the productivity of vegetated ecosystem. NPP is the balance between CO2 absorption through photosynthesis processes (Gross photosynthesis, GPP) and release of CO2 through organ respiration (R veg ). It is a total annual increment of the vegetation NEE= NPP soil respiration It determine the change in [CO2] in the atmosphere Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

11 CO 2 flux (g (C) m -2 d -1 ) 8 6 Ecosystem Respiration 1760 g C m -2 year -1 R E 4 CO 2 flux g (C) m -2 d Net turbulent uptake 970 g C m -2 year -1 NEE F b GPP P g Gross photosynthesis 2730 g C m -2 year -1 OCT ' 03 JAN ' 04 APR JUL OCT JAN ' 05 MAR SFB 552 STORMA Stability of Rainforest Margins in Indonesia (Elsevier 2007) Tania June, ABdul Rauf, Dodo Gunawan (Indonesian team) G. Gravenhorst, A.Ibrom, O. Panferov, Oltchev A.; H. Kreilein, T.Ross; U.Falk, A.Sogachev, G.Rakibu (German team) Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

12 Peatland drained forest, Central Kalimantan BMKG Terrain: flat, Altitude: 30 m Homogen, secondary forest, drained Canopy height = 26 m Plant Area Index: 2.2 Peat depth = 3 5 m Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June 2 o S, 114 o E.

13 GPP (gc m -2 d -1 ) RE (gc m -2 d -1 ) NEE (gc m -2 d -1 ) a) NEE GPP, R E dan NEE Year NEE (gc m -2 y -1 ) RE (gc m -2 y -1 ) GPP (gc m -2 y -1 ) b) RE Mean 314± ± ± c) GPP Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Month Blocking of drainage starting in El Nino year in (Global Change Biology, 2007) T. Hirano, M. Osaki (Japanese team) Suwido Limin, Tania June (Indonesian Team) Slide courtesy of Dr. Tania June

14 BMKG Emission Sink and source from Indonesian forest o o o o Emission from peatland (314 gc m -2 y -1 ) is one third of the absorption or sink from natural forest (970 gc m -2 y -1 ) Therefore we need only one third of natural forest in Indonesia to absorp the emission from the largest carbon source which is peatland Emission reduction in peatland from 447 to 221 gc m -2 y -1 after damming shows the effectiveness of rewetting of peatland. The largest source of absorption (carbon pools) in Indonesia proves that the accusation of the large emission contradict with the fact of large capacity of absorption of Indonesian soil and forest.

15 Palm Oil and Climate Change

16 Why Food and Bio-energy Together? Potential renewable energy (RE) untapped Potential path to Food and Energy security Slow down carbon emission, biofuel plants capture atmospheric carbon, do not increase the carbon in the atmosphere Displace some fossil fuel with B5 Watch out for inappropriate land clearing and peatland dryness Need better strategy to understand future suitability map of palm oil

17 percent billion liters Biodiesel demand Biodiesel production: demand strongly driven by national utilization mandates plus subsidies commercial viability not secured global biodiesel production to more than double: +127% ( ) expansion in transport fuel rising share of diesel in transp. Fuel shares of BD in total transport fuel to remain modest few important players. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Biodiesel-share in total diesel consumption (in energy equivalent) BD production - current and projected 0% Canada USA EU(27) Australia Argentina Brazil Malaysia Philippines Thailand Source: FAO/OECD Growth in biodiesel production ( over 2018) Argentina Brazil Canada Colombia EU(27) India 0 Indonesia Malaysia Source: Peter Thoenes, 2009 Thailand USA Source: FAO/OECD Argentina Brazil Source: FAO/OECD Canada Colombia EU(27) Indonesia Malaysia Thailand. USA avg of main producers

18 Year Influence of Climate on Palm Oil Production Year No Production (GT)* Area (1000 ha)* Productivity (ton/ha)* SOI** , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SOI: Southern 9130 Oscillation 3,82 Index, El Nino Normal indicator

19 Trend of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indonesian Palm Oil Productivity (ton/ha) Palm Oil is susceptible to too wet and to dry climate, then too cold and too warm climate

20 Palm Oil land Suitability How the future climate changes this?

21 Threshold for climate criteria for Palm Oil suitability study Parameter Mnemonic Values Limiting low temperature DV0 19 C Lower optimal temperature DV1 24 C Upper optimal temperature DV2 28 C Limiting high temperature DV3 36 C Limiting low soil moisture SM0 0.4 Lower optimal soil moisture SM1 0.6 Upper optimal soil moisture SM2 1.6 Limiting high soil moisture SM3 2 Cold stress temperature threshold TTCS 15 C Cold stress temperature rate THCS week 1 Minimum degree-day cold stress threshold DTCS 20 C days Degree-day cold stress rate DHCS week 1 Heat stress temperature threshold TTHS 36 C Heat stress temperature rate THHS week 1 Dry stress threshold SMDS 0.4 Dry stress rate HDS week 1 Wet stress threshold SMWS 2 Wet stress rate HWS week 1 Source: Paterson Degree-day et al.,, 2015 threshold PDD 1500

22 Source: Paterson et al.,, 2016 Present day Palm Oil suitability

23 Source: Paterson et al.,, 2016 Palm Oil suitability in 2050

24 Source: Paterson et al.,, 2016 Palm Oil suitability in 2100

25 Present day Palm Oil suitability 2030 Highly suitable Suitable Marginally suitable Unsuitable Source: Paterson et al.,, 2015

26 Source: Paterson et al.,, 2015

27 Summary of Palm Oil suitability under future climate change for Indonesia Scenario Area (km 2 ) Unsuitable Marginal Suitable Highly Suitable Current 332,880 6,122 7,908 1,794, A1B CS 220,135 13,264 49,741 1,858, A2 CS 228,807 11,479 44,639 1,856, A1B MR 225,236 8,928 22,192 1,885, A2 MR 235,184 8,673 19,896 1,877, A1B CS 139,784 86, ,047 1,623, A2 CS 136, , ,104 1,560, A1B MR 143,355 17, ,911 1,771, A2 MR 136,213 21, ,785 1,730, A1B CS 123, , , , A2 CS 202, , , , A1B MR 104, , ,600 1,377, A2 MR Source: Paterson et al.,, , , , ,435

28 Notes on the model use The A1B scenario portrays a balance between the use of fossil and non-fossil resources. the A2 describes a varied world with high population growth but slow economic development and technological change Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.053 and MIROC-H (Centre for Climate Research, Japan) Use SRES climate scenarios of IPCC AR4. AR5 uses RCP scenarios and AR6 will use SSP scenarios. Need to improve the climate scenario. The modeling is a pure climate scenarios, without land use dynamics, desease dynamics and sosio economic dynamics

29 Palm Plantation and Climate Change no consensus on ultimate net global impact on agricultural production global warming and changing rainfall patterns potentially beneficial in high latitude regions damaging in low latitude tropical areas uncertainty regarding the effects of higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration (carbon fertilization) consensus: food security to be affected considerable scope to improve resilience via adaptation until 2050: increased risk of water stress; rising incidence of extreme weather events after 2050: significant impact on agricultural productivity (shifts in production frontiers) and on the global food system

30 Palm Oil Plantation and global warming - Land clearing - Biomass Burning BIOFUEL VS Plant growth absorb carbon from the atmosphere through its respiration FOOD SECURITY GHG emission GHG sink No GHG emission

31 IPCC Reports

32 IPCC Bureau members persons total Elected in IPCC session in Dubrovnik 2015 Indonesia representative is the 2nd in history

33 Current IPCC agenda Special report on 1.5 C (09/2018) Special report on ocean and cryosphere (2019) Special report on desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security (2019) TFI methodological report on greenhouse gas emission inventories (2019) Main assessment report of WGs (end of 2020 beginning of 2021) Working Group I Physical Basis Working Group II Impact, Vulnerability, Adaptation Working Group III Mitigation IPCC Special Workshop on Cities Edmonton Canada Feb 2018

34 Conclusions The global challange includes the threat of global carbon cycle that cause global warming For a clearance of an acre of forest for plantation, we need a third of an acre of virgin forest to balance. The maritime continent Indonesia is the highly suitable are for Palm oil Future climate model scenario using SRES scenarios indicates reduction of suitable ares for palm oil in Indonesia especially after There is a need to improve climate modeling using soil type dynamics, new IPCC model scenario of RCP and SSP as well as ecological dynamics.

35 TERIMA KASIH THANK YOU