SYSTEM-SCALE HYDROPOWER PLANNING FOR THE INDUS RIVER BASIN, PAKISTAN

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1 'IAIA15 Cnference Prceedings' Impact Assessment in the Digital Era 35 th Annual Cnference f the Internatinal Assciatin fr Impact Assessment April 2015 Firenze Fiera Cngress & Exhibitin Center Flrence Italy SYSTEM-SCALE HYDROPOWER PLANNING FOR THE INDUS RIVER BASIN, PAKISTAN INTRODUCTION In Pakistan, the demand fr pwer exceeds supply n a regular basis keeping the cuntry in a perpetual state f crisis whereby pwer cuts and rtatinal lad shedding have becme part f everyday life. In additin, there are chrnic water shrtages due t the inability t capture and stre the seasnal mnsnal rains, leaving the cuntry in drught fr the greater part f the year. The ttal annual renewable water resurces per capita in Pakistan have plunged frm 3,385 m 3 in 1977 t 1,329 m 3 in 2011 (FAO, 2012). Hydrpwer was first identified as a ptential surce f large quantities f clean, lw cst, renewable energy at the time f Pakistan s independence in Hwever, 67 years later Pakistan has explited less than 12% f the identified hydrpwer ptential in the cuntry. In 2008, the Water and Pwer Develpment Authrity (WADPA) annunced plans fr the develpment f an extensive prtfli f multipurpse strage dams and run-f-river hydrpwer prjects thrughut the Indus River Basin (Figure 1) t address what has nw becme a critical situatin fr the natin. WADPA s "Visin 2025" prgram prmises t develp 80 billin cubic metres (BCM) f additinal water strage and add 37,770 megawatts (MW) f hydrpwer generatin capacity t the natinal grid by 2025 (WADPA, 2014). At current prices, the cst f implementing Visin 2025 is estimated at US$ billin (WADPA, 2014), making it ne f the biggest develpment schemes in Pakistan s histry. A majr challenge is hw t develp a prgram f this magnitude while meeting the grwing expectatins f dnrs and sciety t incrprate sustainability and scial equity. STRATEGIC SECTORAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT Methds Figure 1. Reginal Map f Pakistan Shwing the Indus River Basin A Strategic Sectral Envirnmental and Scial Assessment (SSESA) was cmmissined by the Gvernment f Pakistan t review the existing planning prcesses in relatin t hydrpwer develpment. The bjectives were t assess the current capacity t implement Visin 2025 in a manner which balances the requirements f technical bjectives, sustainability and scial equity. A team f lcal and internatinal technical specialists with expertise in the legal, planning, engineering, design, envirnmental and scial disciplines, reviewed varius cmpnents f the existing hydrpwer prject (HPP) planning and develpment prcess, including: i. Legal, regulatry, institutinal framewrks and plicies relating t hydrpwer develpment. ii. Available data n envirnmental and scial resurces f the Indus Basin and the adequacy f this data t determine a useful baseline cnditin. Page 1 f 6

2 Clarke - System-Scale Hydrpwer Planning fr the Indus River Basin, Pakistan iii. iv. Planning framewrks fr hydrpwer and identificatin f pprtunities fr refrms that wuld facilitate a system-scale apprach. Cumulative envirnmental and scial cumulative impacts that can be mst effectively mitigated at the system-scale. Findings were presented t ver ne hundred gvernment and NGO stakehlders during wrkshps held in the prvincial capitals f Peshawar, Quetta, Karachi and Lahre, and the natinal capital f Islamabad. Participants were asked t make cmments and recmmendatins in respnse t the majr findings f the SSESA. Findings Frm the analysis and utputs f the cnsultatin wrkshps a number f findings were made that identified issues that acted as actual, ptential, r perceived barriers t the sustainability and the adptin f a system scale apprach t hydrpwer planning, including: Plicy Currently, nly draft hydrpwer plicy exists, this lack f directin erdes cnfidence f ptential dnrs and investrs. Current laws and plicies relating t hydrpwer d nt cntain significant prvisins fr envirnmental and scial cnsideratins. The existing standard f prject management and assessment is lacking resulting in slw and inefficient apprval prcesses. A culture f integratin f envirnmental/scial cnsideratins with the pwer sectr is nt well develped. Typically, dnr safeguard plicies relating t envirnmental and scial issues are nt adequately addressed adequately. Capacity Building Capacity building fr institutins respnsible fr strategic plicy frmulatin, regulatry and legal framewrk, natinal develpment plans etc. is required. Capacity building fr agencies respnsible fr prject assessment, implementatin and management is required. Cmpensatin and Resettlement Cmpensatin and resettlement f prject affected persns is nt cnsidered t be a high pririty. Past prjects have been stalled in the planning stages due t unreslved disputes arund benefit sharing amng prvinces. The risk f delays can be reduced by adpting prgressive benefit sharing plicies that distribute mnetary benefits equitably. Baseline Data Significant gaps exist in the dataset relating t the physical, envirnmental, scial, and cultural resurces f the Indus Basin. The lack f a central hydr-meterlgical database is nt cnducive with infrmed decisin making and ptimal utcmes. Pwer Generatin and Water Strage Planning The ttal hydrpwer ptential in the Indus Basin is apprximately 60,365 MW f which nly abut 12% (7,256 MW) is currently being explited (PPIB, 2012). Pakistan s current water strage capacity is 14.7 BCM, r 30 days f cnsumptin, significantly lwer than the minimum desirable requirement f 120 days. Page 2 f 6

3 Clarke - System-Scale Hydrpwer Planning fr the Indus River Basin, Pakistan Ptential water strage capacity f all identified HPP prjects with impundments is BCM which represents apprximately 104 days f cnsumptin. Pakistan s ttal installed electrical generatin capacity is currently 23,871 MW, this will need t increase t 83,600 MW by 2033 t meet prjected increases in demand. The water strage capacity shrtfall fr the Indus Basin is currently 10 BCM, which is likely t increase fur fld in the next 20 years. Pakistan will need t increase its water strage capacity frm the existing 14.7 BCM t 41.9 BCM t meet future water strage requirements. Financial The cst/benefit analyses f HPP prjects t date have nt cnsidered lsses f ecsystem services, climate change impacts and climate change adaptatin. Tendencies within the framewrk fr delays in prject apprval, implementatin, funding and dispute reslutin pse a threat t the financial viability f prjects. Envirnmental and Scial Impacts Primary cumulative impacts assciated with HPP develpment are centred n land lss and disruptin f envirnmental flws. Measures that minimise primary cumulative impacts will result in significantly mre gains in sustainability at the system-scale. Primary cumulative impacts cannt be avided, as HPP prjects typically require large tracts f land and water flws fr implementatin. The cumulative impacts are far reaching and result frm actins f multiple stakehlders, mitigatin requires actin at the prject, planning and system levels. Climate Change Hydrpwer prjects are vulnerable t the effects f climate change due t existing water stress and prjected changes in mnsnal weather patterns. Uncertainty in climate prjectins and a lack f reliable hydrlgical recrds fr the Indus Basin are a cnstraint t effective HPP planning and peratin. Water strage and cntrlled releases frm large impundments is a ptential adaptatin respnse t increased variability in stream-flw as it will maintain energy utputs frm hydrpwer during perids f lw flw. Cnstructin f multipurpse impundment dams in the Indus Basin prvides an pprtunity fr water strage and the managed release f envirnmental flws thrughut the year. Hydrpwer Prgram Optimisatin N Prject ptin is nt a feasible due t the severe scial and ecnmic cnsequences f current pwer and water shrtages and lack f alternatives. A nn-ptimised HPP prgram develping all r mst f the identified prjects will prvide pwer and water strage capacity far in excess f prjected requirements. Optimising the HPP prgram t include prjects that just meet prjected pwer generatin and water strage requirements significantly reduces impacts. HPP prgram ptimisatin is cnsidered t be the mst effective way t mitigate cumulative impacts at the system scale. RECOMMENDATIONS The findings f the SSESA identify the need fr a number f planning initiatives t address the requirement fr refrms in hydrpwer planning plicy and develpment f enabling basin-wide plans and prgrams t address cumulative impacts. As the existing planning framewrk is relatively immature it is anticipated that Page 3 f 6

4 Clarke - System-Scale Hydrpwer Planning fr the Indus River Basin, Pakistan sweeping changes will be necessary t achieve the desired utcmes in the relatively shrt timeframe available. When identifying the level f the planning prcess at which refrms shuld be fcussed it became apparent that it was at the prgram and planning stages that the largest gains in terms f sustainability were t be made, with gains at the prject level largely cnfined t the lcal receiving envirnment (Figure 2). Figure 2. Gains in Sustainability at Different Levels f Interventin Implementatin f the recmmended refrms will require the frmatin f new administrative bdy tasked with representing hydrpwer related interests. The legislative and planning tls that will be necessary t achieve these gals cnstitute ne f the fllwing five strategies. Each strategy will be cmprised f existing, mdified r new Plicy, Plans and Prgrams (PPPs) which will be designed t implement the recmmendatins f the SSESA. The prpsed strategies are: 1. Natinal Water and Pwer Strategy Gvernment f Pakistan Plicy fr Hydrpwer Develpment Natinal Envirnmental Flws Plicy Hydrpwer Develpment Prgram, including: Interim and Lng-Term Pwer Generatin Targets Interim and Lng-Term Water Strage Targets Lng-Term Hydrpwer Cntributin Target Optimised Prject Prtfli Optimised Planning Schedule Prject Funding Plans Supprting Infrastructure Plans Labur and Prcurement Plans Page 4 f 6

5 Clarke - System-Scale Hydrpwer Planning fr the Indus River Basin, Pakistan 2. Integrated Water Resurces Management (IWRM) Strategy: Telemetry Prgram Fld Management Plans Catchment Management Plans Climate Change Adaptatin Plans Natinal Envirnmental Flws Framewrk 3. Reginal Bidiversity Cnservatin Strategy: Bidiversity Offsets Plans Aquatic Resurces Management Plans Data Cllectin Prgram and Central Database Prject Level Mitigatin Guidelines 4. Reginal Resettlement and Cmpensatin Strategy: Public Cnsultatin Prgram Land Acquisitin and Cmpensatin Plicy and Guidelines Scial Infrastructure Plans Cultural Heritage Cnservatin Plans Ecnmic Develpment Plans Lcal Emplyment Guidelines Grievance Redress Plicy Benefit Sharing Plicy 5. Plicy and Implementatin Refrm Strategy Plicy Refrm Plans Capacity Building Prgrams LONG-RANGE STRATEGIC PLANNING The SSESA prvides a framewrk fr a lng-range strategic planning mdel that is specific t hydrpwer develpment in the Indus Basin. It is intended that planners use this framewrk alng with the tls and methds prvided in the SSESA t develp an ptimised prgram and supprting system-wide mitigatin strategies. The tangible benefits f this apprach will be: Imprved capacity t identify cumulative impacts that cannt be addressed by prject-based appraches alne, allwing system-wide mitigatins t be develped. Increased pprtunities fr ptimisatin f the verall hydrpwer prgram by selecting high perfrmance prjects and realising synergistic peratinal efficiencies. A planning framewrk that is capable f meeting generatin and strage requirements and minimising envirnmental and scial impacts within the cntext f a single cmprehensive prgram. Envirnmental regulatry agencies will have greater capacity t achieve basin-wide, lng-term envirnmental bjectives than a prject-by-prject apprach. A mechanism fr prpnents t cntribute twards system-scale initiatives t address cumulative impacts that cannt be attributed t individual prjects. Prpnents and dnrs will have greater certainty and lwer risk f delay r cancellatin by facilitating scial license fr a specific prject. Page 5 f 6

6 Clarke - System-Scale Hydrpwer Planning fr the Indus River Basin, Pakistan Prject Affected Persns will have a degree f certainty f the timing and extent f dispssessin and resettlement, affrding them mre time t plan accrdingly. Hydr-engineers will have the pprtunity t ptimise generatin by planning cascades f successive generatrs t explit peak river flws as they prgress dwnstream. Facilitates crdinatin f the develpment f supprting infrastructure such as access rads and transmissin which culd help prpnents realise ptential synergies. CONCLUSIONS A system-scale apprach is recmmended t address the issue f sustainability f the prpsed Visin 2025 hydrpwer develpment prgram. Tackling cumulative envirnmental and scial issues at this level can identify ptential cnflicts earlier than prject-based appraches alne and allws fr greater flexibility t find alternatives. Fr a given level f energy develpment, the system-scale apprach has a much greater prbability f prducing a prtfli and cnfiguratin f HPP prjects that accmmdates the maintenance f ther values, including ther water-management benefits and envirnmental and scial values. If this apprach is incrprated in t a strategic lng-term planning framewrk, planners will be able t anticipate risks and develp r adapt management systems t respnd t them befre the impacts are realised. The SSESA prvides a framewrk and tls t implement the sweeping changes t the existing legislative, assessment and management systems that are necessary t integrate sustainability int the upcming era f unprecedented hydrpwer cnstructin. REFERENCES FAO, (Aquastat database) Fd and Agriculture Organizatin f the United Natins. Website: Gvernment f Pakistan Pakistan Ecnmic Survey Ecnmic Advisr s Wing, Ministry f Finance. Ministry f Finance, Islamabad PPIB Hydrpwer Resurces f Pakistan. Private Pwer and Infrastructure Bard. 50 Nazimuddin Rad, F7/4, Islamabad, Pakistan. WADPA, Visin 2025 Hydrpwer Prjects under Study. WADPA website. Accessed 19/9/2014. Authr: Dr Michael Clarke Affiliatin: Snwy Muntains Engineering Crpratin (SMEC) Cntact Details: michael.clarke@smec.cm Acknwledgements: Gvernment f Pakistan - Ministry f Water and Pwer. Prject Management and Plicy Implementatin Unit Water Sectr Capacity Building and Advisry Services Prject; Dr. Abdul Aleem Chaudhry Engineering General Cnsultants, Lahre, Pakistan; Luke Palfreeman SMEC Internatinal, Australia. Page 6 f 6