Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015

Transcription

1 Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 D European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant

2 Authors: Tobias Fleiter, Rainer Elsland, Matthias Rehfeldt, Jan Steinbach (Fraunhofer ISI) Ulrich Reiter, Giacomo Catenazzi, Martin Jakob (TEP Energy GmbH) Cathelijne Rutten, Robert Harmsen (University Utrecht) Florian Dittmann, Philippe Rivière, Pascal Stabat (ARMINES) Contact: Tobias Fleiter Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research Breslauer Str Karlsruhe Germany Heat Roadmap Europe website: Deliverable No. D 3.1: Report 2017 European Union's Horizon 2020 research The sole responsibility for the content of this document lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the funding authorities. The funding authorities are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 2

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5 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Method, definitions and data sources Method Definitions Data sources Summary of main results References

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7 1. Introduction In Europe, there is a clear long-term objective to decarbonise the energy system, but it is currently unclear how this will be achieved in the heating and cooling sector. The Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE) project will enable new policies and prepare the ground for new investments by creating more certainty regarding the changes that are required. Heat Roadmap Europe is co-funded by the European Union, brings together 24 academic, industrial, governmental and civil society partners, and runs from The overall objective of the HRE project is to provide new capacity and skills for lead users in the heating and cooling sector including policymakers, industry, and researchers at local, national, and EU levels by developing the data, tools, and methodologies necessary to quantify the impact of implementing more energy efficiency measures on both the demand and supply sides of the sector. This WP3 report presents a breakdown of both the demand and supply of heating and cooling energy for the year 2015 and thus provides the starting point for the scenario analyses up until Conventional energy balances (both national and Eurostat) generally provide the final energy demand split by sector (residential, industry, tertiary and transport), energy carrier and also by sub-sector for industry. They do not usually provide information on end-uses such as heating, cooling, mechanical energy or useful energy (i.e. the heat that is used by the consumer, e.g. for heating a room). A recent review found that several EU countries provide end-use balances for the residential sector and some for the tertiary sector, but only three countries do so for the industry sector (United Kingdom, Germany and Austria) (Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016). However, the method and definitions used in the various countries deviate from one another and it is not possible to derive a consistent EU-wide end-use energy balance simply by combining national data (Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016). As a consequence, the energy demand for heating and cooling (H/C) cannot be derived from the currently existing official energy balances in a consistent way for all EU countries. Neither is it possible to calculate the share of renewable energies in H/C without simplification as done, for example, in the SHARES project 1, which excludes all electricity consumption from H/C energy use. This approach does not provide accurate results in many countries. Therefore, this deliverable aims to profile the energy demand for H/C by calculating energy balances for all 28 EU countries that include H/C. However, the focus of the analysis and input-data quality checks is on the 14 EU countries with the highest H/C demand as in the other HRE deliverables. The remaining 14 countries were added so 1 3

8 that figures could be presented for the entire EU28. The balances are based on the same method applied across countries, which should make them comparable and consistent. The approach used combines empirical data, e.g. market shares, industrial production or technology stock with bottom-up model simulation to derive energy demands for The bottom-up model FORECAST 2 is used for this purpose was chosen as the start year for scenario development in the HRE4 project so the H/C profile is also developed for This poses a few challenges related to data availability. At the time of calculating the 2015 profiles, there was no final energy demand balance available from Eurostat, which is ideally used for calibration. Other input data are also only available for earlier years (e.g. industrial production statistics). As a consequence, we calculate the 2015 heating and cooling profiles based on model runs that begin in SFH = Single-family house; MFH = Multi-family house, CHP = combined heat and power, RES= Renewable energy sources Figure 1: Overview of disaggregation of H/C profiles by country (based on Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016) The H/C profiles comprise all the elements also included in the Eurostat final energy balances (e.g. energy carriers and sectors). They are then broken down by sub-sector, end-use technology and even by temperature level for the industry sector to provide a complete picture of energy demand for H/C in the various market segments. Figure 1 provides an overview of the different dimensions considered. Two examples are given here of how the resulting H/C profiles can be used: to obtain the final energy demand for space heating in multi-family houses in Belgium that is provided by air

9 source heat pumps; and to show the coal used to provide process heat in the iron and steel sector in Italy in the temperature range above 500 C. The profiles include final energy demand as well as useful energy demand. We define useful energy demand as the heat provided by the combined system of a boiler plus storage. In the following, the definitions and data sources are described, before an overview of the main results is provided. The annex gives a more detailed analysis of the H/C profiles in each sector (industry, residential and tertiary). 5

10 2. Method, definitions and data sources 2.1. Method The approach used combines empirical data with bottom-up modelling of energy demand. The empirical data are taken from official national statistics, surveys as well as various statistics provided e.g. by industrial organisations. An overview of the main data sources is provided in section 0. For the bottom-up modelling, we use the energy demand model FORECAST. A separate bottom-up model based on sales data is used only for space cooling as described below Deriving end-use energy balances using the bottom-up model FORECAST The FORECAST model comprises three individual modules; each represents one sector in line with the Eurostat (or national) energy balances: industry, services/tertiary and residential. While all the sector modules follow a similar bottom-up methodology, they also consider the particularities of each sector like technology structure, actor heterogeneity and data availability. Energy demand is calculated based on technology structure and technology characteristics as well as economic drivers and prices. In the short term, the most important determinants of energy demand are ambient temperature (affecting mainly space heating) and economic activity (affecting mainly industrial process H/C demand). While the FORECAST model includes a detailed simulation of technological change based on vintage stock models, these effects are more important in the longer term (e.g. towards 2030 and beyond) and less so in the short term. FORECAST takes ambient temperature into account using the annual average heating/cooling degree days (HDDs/CDDs) as shown in Table 4. Industrial activity is reflected using the annual value added by sub-sector and the physical production per year for major energy-intensive bulk products (e.g. tonnes of oxygen steel produced) production data were not available for most of the around 60 products considered and forecasts were made based on past time series. Activities in the services sector are driven by the number of employees and the sub-sector-specific energy demand per employee and floor area. As an example, Figure 2 shows how end-use energy balances are derived in FORECAST- Industry based on bottom-up data by process and end-use. This approach combines activity data such as production and employment with specific energy demand by process/end-use. 6

11 Production [t/a] -byprocess Employment [Pers./a] - by sub-sector and building type Processes (H/C) Space cooling Space heating SEC FED c,p, Floor area C,S,B m²/person Share H/C FED c,p,h/c SEC [kwh/m²] FED C,S,B,A FED C,S,B,H SEC [kwh/m²] Share Temp FED c,p,h/c,t Share cooled FED C,S,B,H Share EC (Eurostat) FED c,p,h/c,t Bottom-up / top-down matching FED: Final energy demand SEC: Specific energy demand C: Country P: Process H/C: Heating/Cooling T: Temperature S: Sub-Sector B: Building type E: End-use A: Air conditioning / cooling Bottom-up FED C,EC,E,T,S FED (Gap) C,S,EC FED (Eurostat) C,S,EC FED C,S,EC,T,E FED (Gap) C,S,EC,T,H Share Temp (gap) Source: Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016) Figure 2: Schematic representation of an end-use balance model calculation for the industry sector (FORECAST-Industry) Note that the calculation of H/C profiles is largely based on earlier work summarized in Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016). We also refer to this publication for a more detailed description of the methodology by sector. However, we extend the H/C profile here by including individual technologies such as heat pumps or industrial CHP units and information on the technology stock such as the number of units installed in certain market segments Space cooling Space cooling demand and supply are calculated using a bottom-up model developed by Armines. The demand is then split into sub-sectors according to the cooling shares calculated by the FORECAST model (Aebischer et al. 2007). This approach is used to update the cooling demand figures and is described in the following (for a more detailed description of the approach and the input data, we refer to the separate HRE deliverable on space cooling 3 ). Total space cooling demand and electricity consumption under standard conditions are estimated using equipment sales. These include all vapour compression technologies 3 D3.2: Cooling technology datasheets and accompanying report "Dittmann, Perret-Gentil, Riviere, Paardekooper, Connolly (2017): "Space Cooling in Europe: Technology Data and Demand Modelling, Mines ParisTech ARMINES, Paris" 7

12 available on the market, such as air-to-air split and VRF systems, ducted and rooftop installations, air-cooled and water-cooled chillers as well as portable and window units. The following steps apply to each sector in each country and each technology. Figure 3 shows the flow of information in detail. The total nominal cooling power installed is estimated by calculating the 2015 stock from the number of units sold over the preceding 24 years, the average power of the units sold and the average lifetime of the technology. Dividing the installed power by the average power installed per unit of indoor floor area (equipment sizing) yields the total cooled floor area. To estimate the total space cooling supplied in the base year, the cooled floor area is multiplied by the cooling energy demand per floor area (specific demand). The average SEER (seasonal energy efficiency ratio) of units installed can be derived by combining the average SEER of units sold with the stock model. Total electricity consumption under standard conditions was then obtained by dividing the total cooling supply by the average SEER. Actual electricity consumption is in fact higher due to suboptimal installation (oversizing), maintenance and usage practices. However, there is no statistically significant information available to enable accurate corrections to the standard efficiencies. EFFICIENCY Eco-design studies SEER of units sold of Technology ( each year ) Units sold/y (24y) by ranges of cooling power TECHNOLOGY STOCK Certification data EU Regulation Total (seasonal) electric power of units sold Units sold in sector by ranges of cooling power Total cooling power sold Repartition of units sold over sectors Distribution of units sold within cooling power ranges Total (seasonal) electric power of units installed Lifetime of technology SEER of units installed Total cooling power installed I NSTALLATION BUI LDI NG STOCK Manufacturer s Installation manuals Sizing (cooling power/area) for building types Total ar ea of building types Buil di ng type di stri bution of sector Hour ly weather data (one year) Building type demand models Total area cooled Compari son with other models/data DC SPECI FI C DEMAND MODEL by building type Specific demand (cooling energy/area) Total cooling supply Compari son with other models/data BUI LDI NG DEMAND Total electricity consumption Compari son with other models/data Figure 3: Overview of method for space cooling demand estimation 8

13 2.2. Definitions The following summarises the main definitions used for the H/C profiles. Final energy, delivered heat and useful energy We define final energy in line with Eurostat as the energy input to the heating unit at the final consumer. Like Eurostat, we also exclude ambient heat used in heat pumps. Only the electricity or gas consumption of heat pumps is included in the final energy. The definition of useful energy is less standardized. Different studies use different definitions. We define useful energy as the energy distributed to the end-user, e.g. the heat to a room provided by a radiator. Thus, useful energy takes into account potential losses from local distribution, e.g. in the pipes in a building. Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016) use a similar definition for useful energy. However, our results are not based on useful energy but on delivered energy instead. This is defined at the conversion step from final energy to useful energy (see Figure 4). We define delivered energy as the heat or cold produced by the combined system of an onsite boiler and storage before it enters the distribution system. Possible losses in the distribution system (e.g. within a building) are not taken into account for delivered energy. Local distribution Losses Heat storage Losses Losses Heating system Transformation sector & network Losses Heat or cold distributed to end use = Useful energy Heat or cold produced by boiler + storage = Delivered energy Energy input to boiler or plant = Final energy Figure 4: Definition of final, delivered and useful energy Technologies and energy carriers A major extension of this report compared to Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016) is the inclusion of technology information. In order to keep the amount of data to a manageable level, we use one combined dimension to represent energy carriers and technologies. While 9

14 some energy carriers are well defined by particular technologies (e.g. gas is mainly used in gas boilers), others are not (e.g. electricity). In the latter case, we split electricity use into individual technologies including air-source and ground-source heat pumps, direct electric resistance heating and compression cooling. Table 1 provides a complete overview. Table 1: Definition of technologies/ energy carriers Technology/ Energy carrier (final energy) Total Gas Oil Coal Electric heating District heating Biomass Solar thermal Heat pumps total (electric) Heat pumps air source (electric) Heat pumps ground source (electric) Others (RES) Others (fossil) Compression cooling (electric) Definition / comment Sum of all energy technologies/energy carriers includes all gas technologies not listed separately below, still mainly individual boilers see gas see gas Direct electric heating (resistance heating also for night storage) DH substations Includes all biomass/biofuels/biogas technologies not listed separately below Only solar thermal. Include only electricity in final energy demand; ambient heat not included; gas heat pumps not included See heat pumps total; only heat pumps using air as heat source See heat pumps total; only heat pumps using the ground as heat source Mainly RES waste and deep geothermal Mainly fuels used in industry including waste, stack gas, etc. Aggregates all cooling technologies Sectors and sub-sectors In terms of sectors, we follow the Eurostat energy balance definition by including industry, tertiary/services and residential. For industry sub-sectors, we aggregate the Eurostat energy balances slightly in order to have fewer very small sub-sectors. This aggregation leads to a total of 8 sub-sectors (see Table 2). For the tertiary sector, we also include 8 sub-sectors (see Table 3). Note that Eurostat does not provide information for sub-sectors in the tertiary sector. 10

15 Table 2: Definition of sub-sectors in industry Sub sectors NACE 2.0 Divisions Iron and steel 24.1, 24.2, 24.3, 24.51, Non ferrous metals 24,4, 24.53, Paper, pulp and printing 17, 18 Non metallic mineral products 23 Chemical industry 20 Food, drink and tobacco 10, 11, 12 Engineering and other metal 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 Other non classified 13, 14, 15, 16, etc Table 3: Definition of sub-sectors in services Economic subsector NACE (2.0) Description Trade G Wholesale and retail trade Hotel and restaurant I Hotels and restaurants, camping sites, mountain refuges, bars, canteens, catering Traffic and data transmission H, J Transport (railway, road, water, air), storage and communication, cargo handling, post, telecommunications, Finance K Finance and insurance Health Q Health and social work, hospital activities, social work activities with accommodation Education P Primary and secondary education, higher education Public administration O Public administration and defence, compulsory and social security Other services L,M,N,R,S Other services (waste, sport, social services) + real estate and other services Heating degree days (HDDs) Heating degree days are used to correct space heating demand to the respective climate conditions of HDDs are taken from Eurostat as shown in Table 4. For most countries, 2015 has lower HDD values than the average annual values from 2010 to This means the demand for space heating was lower because 2015 was a relatively warm year. 11

16 Table 4: Heating degree days (HDDs) used (source: Eurostat) Country Average EU 27/28 3,473 3,119 3,420 3,218 2,809 2,904 3,157 Austria 3,704 3,404 3,554 3,640 3,125 3,318 3,457 Belgium 3,174 2,399 2,772 3,024 2,315 2,633 2,719 Bulgaria 2,596 2,796 2,611 2,414 2,371 2,374 2,527 Croatia n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,301 1,895 2,256 n.a. Cyprus Czech Republic 3,832 3,234 3,399 3,512 2,918 3,090 3,331 Denmark 3,971 3,150 3,423 3,402 2,855 3,114 3,319 Estonia 4,818 4,083 4,579 4,152 4,142 3,791 4,261 Finland 6,058 5,251 5,857 5,278 5,242 5,031 5,453 France 2,707 2,053 2,441 2,636 2,085 2,257 2,363 Germany 3,611 2,868 3,126 3,288 2,661 2,908 3,077 Greece 1,343 1,790 1,655 1,451 1,393 1,578 1,535 Hungary 2,936 2,815 2,771 2,687 2,286 2,597 2,682 Ireland 3,125 2,754 2,858 2,835 2,631 2,913 2,853 Italy 1,992 1,861 1,968 1,933 1,632 1,810 1,866 Latvia 4,622 3,940 4,320 4,037 3,948 3,658 4,088 Lithuania 4,409 3,768 4,082 3,872 3,727 3,524 3,897 Luxembourg 3,358 2,624 2,917 3,229 2,500 2,853 2,913 Malta Netherlands 3,300 2,512 2,814 3,010 2,285 2,625 2,758 Poland 3,881 3,317 3,552 3,505 3,095 3,113 3,410 Portugal 1,290 1,087 1,348 1,340 1,147 1,080 1,215 Romania 2,988 3,173 3,090 2,863 2,729 2,786 2,938 Slovak Republic 3,467 3,248 3,299 3,241 2,718 3,057 3,172 Slovenia 3,041 2,818 2,832 2,867 2,342 2,700 2,767 Spain 1,913 1,562 1,871 1,910 1,570 1,612 1,740 Sweden 5,874 4,927 5,504 5,186 4,887 4,910 5,214 United Kingdom 3,403 2,846 3,183 3,179 2,740 3,017 3,061 12

17 2.3. Data sources The following table provides an overview of the main data sources used. Table 5: Selected data sources used Sector Sub area Data sources used Residential sector Tertiary sector Industry sector Crosscutting Dwelling stock, living area Technology and energy related data Building and technology data Industrial production Technology data Renewable energy technologies Final and useful energy demand Space cooling Enerdata (2016b), Enerdata (2016c), Eurostat (2016) Enerdata (2016b), Enerdata, TU Vienna, Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016), Fraunhofer ISI, Fraunhofer ISE, IREES et al. (2016) EUROSTAT (number of employees), EU Building observatory, BPIE, Odyssee database (general), FhG ISE survey data (district heat), various EuP preparatory studies, IREES and ARMINES (cooling technologies) Prodcom, UNFCCC, Eurostat, industrial organisations (VDP, Cembureau, World Steel Association, Glassglobal) US geological survey PLATTs database, Eurostat CHP statistics, numerous individual studies for individual sub sectors, e.g. Fleiter et al. (2011) Eurostat energy balances, EHPA market reports, Observ ER market reports Eurostat and national end use energy balances such as DUKES for the UK. Space cooling sales: BSRIA WMI Market studies, Eurovent Market intelligence Specific demand (Service sector): District cooling deliveries (Werner, 2015) Specific demand (residential sector): Dynamic building demand modelling (Rivière et al., 2008) Standard SEER values of sales: EU studies (Adnot et al., 1999), (Adnot et al., 2003), (Rivière et al., 2009), (Rivière et al., 2012), current Eurovent Certification product directory, public information and regulatory information from air conditioner labels and MEPS (EC, 2002), (EU, 2011), (EU, 2012) and (EU, 2016); 13

18 3. Summary of main results The resulting heating and cooling profiles allow a very detailed insight into the pattern of H/C demand and supply by country, end-use, sector, sub-sector, energy carrier and temperature level. A few selected main results are presented here. A more detailed analysis of the results is given in the annex to this report and allows deeper insights into the individual sectors. Non-H/C 50% Heating and cooling 50% Process heating 16% Space heating 27% Space cooling 1% Process cooling 1% Hot water 4% Other heating 1% Other heating = cooking in residential buildings Figure 5: Heating and cooling demand in 2015 in the EU28 by end-use compared to total final energy (FED) demand Further key results are: With a final energy demand (FED) of 6350 TWh in 2015, H&C is very important and accounts for ~50% of EU28 FED Space heating (53% of FED for H/C) is the most important individual end-use followed by process heating (32% of FED for H/C) Cooling accounts for ~2% of total FED for H&C and has low shares in most countries, but the potential to grow strongly in the future Space heating is important in almost every country, while space cooling is only relevant in southern countries. 14

19 8% 1% 0% 0% 4% Gas Oil Biomass 9% 12% 42% Electricity District heating Coal Others (fossil) Solar thermal 12% 12% Heat pumps Others (RES) Figure 6: H&C final energy by energy carrier in 2015 (EU28) The energy carrier mix for H/C shows the following pattern: Fossil fuels account for >65% in EU28 FED Electricity and district heating account for 21% (mainly based on fossil fuels) Renewable energy sources (RES) account for about 13% Gas is the most dominant fuel in EU28 (422%) and in most countries Of the available RES, only biomass is used substantially (12%); solar thermal, geothermal and heat pumps are still marginal in almost every country However, the composition of energy carriers for H&C supply is very diverse across countries. 15

20 Final energy [TWh] Space heating Space cooling Process heating Process cooling Hot water Other heating Industry Residential Tertiary Other heating = cooking in residential buildings Figure 7: H&C FED by sector and end-use (EU28, 2015) Key results by sector: With about 2850 TWh, the residential sector has the highest FED for H/C followed by industry (2390 TWh) and the tertiary sector (1120 TWh) Process heat accounts for about 80% of H/C FED in the industry sector Industrial process heat >200 C accounts for ~50% of industrial H&C FED, and poses a challenge when switching to RES The end-use and energy carrier structure in industry vary strongly by subsector In residential space heating, SFHs are twice as important as MFHs as an EU28 average In the tertiary sector, all sub-sectors are dominated by space heating Space cooling is much more important in the tertiary sector than in the residential sector. 4. References 16

21 Adnot et al. (1999) Energy efficiency of room air-conditioners. Paris: Ecole des Mines de Paris (coord. J. Adnot) et al, for DGTREN, the Commission of the European Communities, SAVE contract DGXVII4.103/D/97.026, May. Adnot et al. (2003): Efficiency and Certification of Central Air Conditioners (EECCAC). Paris: Ecole des Mines de Paris (coord. J. Adnot) et al, for DGTREN, the Commission of the European Communities, SAVE contract, April. Aebischer B., Jakob M., Catenazzi The late G., Henderson (2007). Impact of climate change on thermal comfort, heating and cooling energy demand in Europe. Proceedings eceee Summer Study 2007, Colle sur Loup, France, June (ISBN ).Enerdata (2016a): Odyssee-Mure database, Grenoble, France. Enerdata (2016b): Stock of single and multifamily dwellings (permanently occupied), Grenoble, France. Enerdata (2016c): Living area of dwellings, Grenoble, France. Enerdata, TU Vienna, Fraunhofer ISI, BPIE, Sofena, Seven 7, National Consumer Research Centre, Öko-Institut, Efficiency Research Group, CENER: ENTRANZE - Policies to ENforce the TRAnsition to Nearly Zero Energy buildings in the EU-27, Grenoble, France. Eurostat (2016): Number of private households by household composition, Luxembourg. EU (2011): COMMISSION DELEGATED REGULATION (EU) No 626/2011 of 4 May 2011 supplementing Directive 2010/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to energy labelling of air conditioners, OJ L 178, , p EU (2012): Commission Regulation (EU) No 206/2012 of 6 March 2012 implementing Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to ecodesign requirements for air conditioners and comfort fans, OJ L 72, , p EU (2016): Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2281 of 30 November 2016 implementing Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for energy-related products, with regard to ecodesign requirements for air heating products, cooling products, high temperature process chillers and fan coil units, OJ L 346, , p Fleiter, Tobias; Schlomann, Barbara; Hirzel, Simon; Arens, Marlene; Hassan, Ali; Idrissova, Farikha et al. (Hg.) (2011): Where are the promising energy-efficient technologies? A comprehensive analysis of the German energy-intensive industries: eceee summer study 2011, June 6-11, Presqu ile de Giens, France. 17

22 Fraunhofer ISI; Fraunhofer ISE; IREES; Observ ER; TU Wien; TEP Energy (2016): Mapping and analyses of the current and future ( ) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables). Karlsruhe, Freiburg, Paris, Wien, Zürich. Rivière et al. (2008): Preparatory Study on the Environmental Performance of Residential Room Conditioning Appliances (Airco and Ventilation), Armines, Paris, France, Werner (2015): Sven Werner, European space cooling demands, Energy, Volume 110, 1 September 2016, Pages , ISSN

23 Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 D3.1 - Detailed results annex

24 Contents Overview Industry sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Cooling Conclusions

25 OVERVIEW

26 Total final energy demand (FED) in 2015 (EU28) High relevance: H&C about 50% of FED! Non-H/C 50% Heating and cooling 50% Process heating 16% Space heating 27% Space cooling 1% Process cooling 1% Hot water 4% Other heating 1%

27 H&C FED by end-use in 2015 (EU28) Hot water 8% Other heating 3% Process cooling 3% Space cooling 1% Process heating 32% 2015: High relevance of space and process heating; Lower relevance of cooling Space heating 53%

28 H&C FED by end-use and country (EU28, 2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Space cooling Process cooling Other heating Process heating Hot water Space heating Space heating and process heating important in all countries Cooling important in southern countries

29 Share of space heating in total FED for H&C Space heating is also relevant in southern countries!

30 H&C FED by energy carrier in 2015 (EU28) 9% 8% 1% 0% 0% 4% 42% Gas Oil Biomass Electricity District heating Coal 2015 shares FED: Fossil: 66% RES: 13% El+DH: 21% 12% Others (fossil) Solar thermal 12% Heat pumps 12% Others (RES)

31 H&C FED by energy carrier and country (EU28, 2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Germany France Italy United Poland Spain Netherlands Belgium Sweden Finland Austria Romania Czech Republic Hungary Greece Slovak Portugal Denmark Ireland Bulgaria Croatia Lithuania Latvia Slovenia Estonia Luxembourg Cyprus Malta Total final energy [TWh] Others (RES) Solar thermal Heat pumps Biomass Electricity District heating Others (fossil) Oil Coal Gas Total Energy carrier mix very country specific Gas important in most countries (less in SE and FI) Solar and heat pumps still marginal almost everywhere

32 H&C FED by energy carrier (2015, EU28) Final energy [TWh] Process heating Process cooling Hot water Other heating Space heating Space cooling Solar thermal Others (RES) Others (fossil) Oil Heat pumps Gas Electricity District heating Coal Biomass End uses use energy carriers differently: Gas is important in both process and space heating Coal is important in process heating Biomass and district heating more in space heating

33 H&C FED by sector and end-use (EU28, 2015) Final energy [TWh] Space heating Space cooling Process heating Process cooling Hot water Other heating End uses by sector: Industry: >80% for process heat Residential: >75% for space heating Tertiary: highest share of cooling compared to other sectors (~10%) 0 Industry Residential Tertiary

34 H&C FED by sector and energy carrier (EU28, 2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Industry Residential Tertiary Solar thermal Others (RES) Others (fossil) Oil Heat pumps (electric) Gas Electricity District heating Coal Biomass Energy carrier mix varies by sector: Industry: highest share of coal and other fossil Residential: highest share of biomass Tertiary: highest share of electricity and gas

35 INDUSTRY SECTOR

36 Industry FED for H&C by end-use (EU28, 2015) 14% 1% 1% 1% 2% 9% 21% Process heating <100 C Process heating C Process heating C Process heating >500 C Space heating Process heating most relevant (and challenging for decarbonization)! Space cooling Process cooling <-30 C 42% 9% Process cooling-30-0 C Process cooling 0-15 C

37 Industry sector by temperature and subsector (EU28, 2015) Very diverse structure in sub sectors! Final energy [TWh] Process cooling 0-15 C Process cooling C Process cooling <-30 C Space cooling Space heating Process heating >500 C Process heating C Process heating C Process heating <100 C

38 Industry FED H&C by energy carrier (EU28, 2015) 8% 11% 1% 0% 9% 17% Biomass Coal District heating Electricity Gas most important energy carrier, but also high shares of coal. Gas Oil 8% Others (fossil) Others (RES) 39% 7% Solar thermal

39 Industry FED H&C by energy carrier and sub-sector (EU28, 2015) Final Energy [TWh] Achsentitel Solar thermal Others (RES) Others (fossil) Oil Gas Electricity District heating Coal Biomass Distribution of energy carriers varies by sub sector: high share of biomass in pulp & paper high share of coal in iron & steel other fossil fuels (e.g. waste) high shares in nonmetallic minerals (mainly cement)

40 Industry FED by end-use and energy carrier (EU28, 2015) Final energy [TWh] Solar thermal Others (RES) Others (fossil) Oil Gas Electricity District heating Coal Biomass Patterns: Coal for high temperatures Biomass for steam DH for low temperatures

41 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Industry: FED for H&C by country and energy carrier (EU28, 2015) Solar thermal Others (RES) Others (fossil) Oil Gas Electricity Huge diversity across countries! 100 Biomass 0 Germany Italy France United Kingdom Spain Poland Netherlands Finland Belgium Sweden Austria Czech Republic Romania Slovak Republic Portugal Hungary Bulgaria Greece Denmark Ireland Croatia Lithuania Slovenia Latvia Luxembourg Estonia Cyprus Malta Final energy [TWh] District heating Coal Total

42 Share of biomass in industry FED High share of biomass in Nordic countries

43 Industry: FED for H&C by country and enduse (EU28, 2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Germany Italy France United Kingdom Spain Poland Netherlands Finland Belgium Sweden Austria Czech Republic Romania Slovak Republic Portugal Hungary Bulgaria Greece Denmark Ireland Croatia Lithuania Slovenia Latvia Luxembourg Estonia Cyprus Malta Final energy [TWh] Process cooling 0-15 C Process cooling C Process cooling <-30 C Space cooling Space heating Process heating >500 C Process heating C Process heating C Process heating <100 C Total Less diversity than for energy carrier distribution: all countries have high shares of process heat > 100 C!

44 Industry: Energy carriers and end-uses (EU28, 2015) Italy Broad mix of industries Sweden Large pulp & paper industry Final energy [TWh] Final energy [TWh] 60 Solar thermal 50 Others (RES) 40 Others (fossil) 30 Oil 20 Gas 10 Electricity 0 District heating Coal Biomass Solar thermal Others (RES) Others (fossil) Oil Gas Electricity District heating Coal Biomass

45 Industry process heat <500 C: FED EU28 by technology CHP gas turbine CHP ICG High share of CHP for steam and hot water generation; still almost 50% individual steam boilers CHP steam turbine Individual boiler District heat

46 Industry process heat <500 C: FED EU28 by technology and energy carrier FED for heat <500 C [TWh] Others (fossil) Oil Gas Electricity District heating Coal Biomass Gas dominates steam generation in boilers, but biomass and coal are also important.

47 Industry process heat <500 C: FED EU28 by technology and country 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Austria Belgium Czech Republic Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Netherlands Poland Romania Spain Sweden United Kingdom District heat Individual boiler CHP steam turbine CHP ICG CHP gas turbine Share of CHP in steam and hot water generation in 14 HRE core countries ranges between 12% and almost 60%

48 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

49 Residential sector: FED for H&C by end-use (EU28, 2015) 15% 1% 7% Other heating Space heating At almost 80%, space heating most important Hot water Space cooling 77%

50 Residential sector: FED for H&C by end-use and country (EU28, 2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Germany France Italy United Kingdom Poland Netherlands Belgium Spain Romania Czech Republic Austria Finland Sweden Hungary Denmark Greece Ireland Croatia Slovak Republic Bulgaria Lithuania Latvia Slovenia Estonia Portugal Luxembourg Cyprus Malta Space cooling Other heating Hot water Space heating * Other heating = cooking Space heating dominant almost everywhere Cooling significant only in southern countries Hot water relatively similar across countries

51 Space heating as share of residential sector s FED for H&C Space heating is also relevant in southern countries!

52 Residential sector: FED for H&C by energy carrier (EU28, 2015) 12% 14% 9% 1% 1% 4% 43% Gas Biomass Oil Electricity District heating Coal Heat pumps Natural gas most important: >40% Biomass second highest share: 16% Heat pumps and solar thermal still marginal (<2%) Solar thermal 16%

53 Residential sector: FED for H&C by energy carrier and country (EU28, 2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Solar thermal Oil Heat pumps Gas Electricity Germany France United Kingdom Italy Poland Spain Netherlands Belgium Romania Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Finland Greece Denmark Ireland Croatia Portugal Slovak Republic Bulgaria Latvia Lithuania Slovenia Estonia Luxembourg Cyprus Malta FED H&C [TWh] District heating Coal Biomass Total Huge diversity across countries

54 Residential sector: FED for H&C by single/multi-family house in 2015 (EU28) Final energy [TWh] Other heating Space cooling Hot water SFH Space heating SFH Hot water MFH Space heating MFH Solar thermal Oil Heat pumps Gas Electricity District heating Coal Biomass SFH twice as relevant as multi family houses

55 Share of SFH in total space heating demand (2015) Importance of SFH varies heavily by member state!

56 TERTIARY SECTOR

57 Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by end-use (EU28, 2015) 8% 5% Process heating 6% 4% Process cooling Space cooling Space heating most important Space heating Hot water 77%

58 Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by sub-sector and end-use in 2015 (EU28) Final energy [TWh] Process heating Process cooling Space cooling Space heating Hot water Wholesale and retail most important subsector, but all relevant.

59 Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by end-use and country (EU28, 2015) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Final energy for H&C [TWh] Process heating Process cooling Space cooling Space heating Hot water Total heating and cooling Space heating important in all countries Southern countries have substantial share of space cooling

60 Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by energy carrier (EU28, 2015) 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 5% 10% Gas Electricity Oil District heating Natural gas dominant at >45% 16% 19% 46% Biomass Solar thermal Coal Heat pumps Others (fossil) Others (RES) Share of electricity driven by cooling and process heating

61 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by energy carrier and country (EU28, 2015) Solar thermal Heat pumps Biomass District heating Electricity Huge diversity across countries Coal Oil Gas Germany France Italy United Kingdom Spain Poland Netherlands Belgium Sweden Austria Finland Czech Republic Hungary Romania Denmark Ireland Slovak Republic Greece Portugal Bulgaria Latvia Croatia Lithuania Luxembourg Slovenia Estonia Cyprus Malta

62 Share of district heating in tertiary sector s FED for H&C Very high shares in Nordic countries Average shares in most eastern countries Low shares in individual countries such as UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy

63 COOLING

64 FED for cooling by end-use and country (2015) Space cooling relevant in southern countries and marginal in northern countries Process cooling more evenly distributed across climate regions Italy Spain Greece France Portugal Cyprus Germany United Kingdom Romania Bulgaria Malta Poland Netherlands Belgium Austria Hungary Czech Republic Slovak Republic Croatia Finland Sweden Slovenia Denmark Luxembourg Lithuania Ireland Latvia Estonia TWh/year Process cooling Space cooling

65 Share of total cooled floor area by country 100,0% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Residential sector Tertiary sector Southern countries have higher shares Service sector has higher shares than residential sector Residential buildings in northern European countries have negligible shares Huge future growth in demand expected

66 MAIN CONCLUSIONS

67 Main conclusions 2015 H&C is very important with ~50% of EU28 FED Very diverse composition of energy carriers for H&C supply across countries. Still: Gas is the most dominant fuel in EU28 and in most countries for H&C. Fossil fuels account for >65% in EU28 FED for H&C Of RES, only biomass is used substantially; solar thermal, geothermal and heat pumps are still marginal in almost every country

68 Main conclusions 2015 Space heating and process heating most relevant end-uses. Space heating: SFH twice as important as MFHs as an EU28 average Process heating: Process heat >200 C accounts for ~50% of industrial H&C FED, and represents a challenge when switching to RES Cooling accounts for ~2% of total FED for H&C and currently has low shares in most countries but the potential to grow strongly in future

69 ABBREVIATIONS

70 Abbreviations FED: Final energy demand CHP: Combined heat and power HRE: Heat Roadmap Europe ICG: Internal combustion engine EU: European Union SFH: Single-family houses MFH: Multi-family houses