INPRO methodology in the area of economics

Transcription

1 9th GIF/INPRO-IAEA Interface Meeting IAEA HQs, Vienna, Austria. 4-5 March 2015 INPRO methodology in the area of economics Developed by B.Dabbs, A.Korinny, J.Phillips, R.Tucci Presented by A.Korinny

2 Introduction 2 Economics is one of the seven areas of INPRO methodology: The latest full version of INPRO methodology published in 2008 as IAEA- TECDOC-1575; Update of INPRO methodology commenced in late INPRO methodology manual on economics covers four issues: Cost competitiveness; Attractiveness for investments; Risk acceptability; Flexibility of design INPRO economics is the only assessment area which requires performing analysis / calculations: NESA Economics Support Tool (NEST)

3 History and status of INPRO economics update 3 July 2012: INPRO steering committee initiated the project to update INPRO methodology; November 2012: kick-off meeting; 74 specific comments were taken care of in update for the INPRO area of economics; February 2013: updated draft was distributed for discussion; August 2013: approved by the IAEA Publication Committee; August 2014: published as Nuclear Energy Series report NG-T-4.4

4 INPRO economics manual update outcome 4 Simplified structure by separate description of: assessment method and analysis involving calculation of economic parameters needed for assessment. Added description of several calculation methods for basic economic functions (LUEC, IRR, ROI, NPV, and total investment) for: different fuel cycles (2008 edition did not discuss closed fuel cycle calculation); different power plants, i.e. nuclear and non-nuclear; groups of power plants (only LUEC); Calculation of robustness indexes in sensitivity analysis has been abandoned and replaced by alternative approach; Examples of NEST calculations available; Defined relationship of INPRO assessment in the area of economics and an energy system planning study using IAEA tools; Updated references available in the area of economics of nuclear power.

5 Assessments using INPRO economics manual 5 NESA of Belarus (IAEA-TECDOC-1716) the latest published example of the IAEA-TECDOC-1575 application including economics (2013); INPRO Dialog Forum 8 (26-29 August 2014): Presentations on INPRO economics manual application in India, China, Argentina and Thailand; Presentations demonstrating the practical approach used by reactor vendors (cash-flow models) which involves estimations similar to INPRO economics calculations: Japan (MHI), Korea (KEPCO). Limited availability of input data requires performance of sensitivity studies using a range of plausible input data Figure is taken from presentation Economic Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Production Using INPRO methodology by Mr Sumio Fujii from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

6 Cost sensitivity diagrams 6 PWR example: ONC=5000 $/kw, Construction period 5 a, Lifetime=60 a; DR=1% DR=12%

7 Cost sensitivity diagrams (cont.) 7 Example of estimation using cost sensitivity diagram for 1% discount rate Mining of uranium from sea water Max theoretically possible benefit from fuel cycle improvements Zero cost of fuel (bundles) Affordable ONC difference between PWR using U mined from sea water and innovative reactor using 0 cost fuel

8 Cost sensitivity diagrams (cont.) 8 Example of estimation using cost sensitivity diagram for 12% discount rate Mining of uranium from sea water Max theoretically possible benefit from fuel cycle improvements Zero cost of fuel (bundles) Affordable ONC difference between PWR using U mined from sea water and innovative reactor using 0 cost fuel

9 NESA economics support tool (NEST) update 9 Calculation of cost sensitivity diagram can be performed by NEST: Calculation of one diagram using Excel version of NEST takes ca. 1 hour. Historically (between 2010 and 2014) NEST was developed in INPRO as MSExcel/VBA tool which comprises several models and options and calculates parameters necessary for the INPRO economic assessment; Automatic calculation of cost sensitivity diagrams requires essential update of NEST

10 Excel version of NEST

11 VBA version of NEST Major concerns on Excel version of NEST: Several hundreds of linked tables in 43 MS Excel sheets; Modifications and further development / expansion challenge. NEST VBA addresses previous issues by exporting all the calculations into a VBA code, and creating an easy to understand user interface; The general purpose, algorithms, calculations and equations are exactly the same as the latest version of Excel tool.

12 VBA version benefits Tool still runs through MS Excel, keeping the capability to be run on any computer with MS Office; Algorithms are coded into VBA: Easier to understand (with the correct documentation); Ease to keep track of changes; Easy learning process for future developers of the tool; Significant simplification of algorithms; Accidental modifications unlikely (i.e. user cannot easily change equations); Better control of incorrect input

13 NEST-VBA interface

14 NEST VBA future developments Repeat validation against the current MS Excel version; Improve the tool s stability; Additional functionalities: Implement multiple reactor capabilities (as it is done in Excel version); Sensitivity analysis (sensitivity diagrams calculation and drawing); Add flexibility to capital investment schedules input (currently NEST uses 7 nods); Mixed financing rates options. Compile the tool in an executable (.exe)

15 Conclusion 15 Updated INPRO manual on economics was published in August 2014; Availability of reliable input data is major constraint for application of the INPRO methodology in the area of economics; Improvements of sensitivity analysis methods and tools are expected to reduce critical dependence of INPRO economics assessment on availability and reliability of input data

16 16 Thank you for your attention!