About energy in general; nuclear energy as part of the energy economy. Seppo Sipilä

Transcription

1 About energy in general; nuclear energy as part of the energy economy Seppo Sipilä

2 History of energy production World energy consumption since 1850 (10 9 GJ) Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Strong increase in consumption after WWII new and renewable energy sources have not been tapped as predicted fossil energy sources are still dominant Graph based on estimates from V. Smil: Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (2010) & BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 2

3 Shares of energy sources (USA) Primary energy comsumption by source, USA (10 15 Btu) history reference scenario forecast oil & other liquids natural gas coal other renewables nuclear biomass hydro quadrillion = Btu 1055 J US Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 3

4 World energy consumption history 2012 projections liquids natural gas coal renewables nuclear quadrillion = Btu 1055 J US Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 4

5 Finnish energy management: production Finland is one of the northernmost industrialized countries. The climate, long distances, the high standard of living and the structure of industry are the reason for the large per capita energy consumption. The diversified structure of energy production is an insurance against world upheavals. Domestic energy sources account for about 36% of energy production. Since the early 1970s, the total energy consumption in Finland has slightly more than doubled (361 TWh v. 2015). In the same period, industrial production has more than quadrupled; the building stock has more than doubled. Peat 4% Natural gas 8% Oil 24% Coal 8% Biomass 26% Nuclear 19% Total energy consumption, shares 2015 (Statistics Finland) Hydro & wind 6% Others 3% Net imports of electricity 5% PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 5

6 Finnish energy management: procurement of electricity With the constantly changing operating environment of electricity companies, a diversified structure of production offers security. Domestic energy sources cover about one third of electricity production. The industry s share of the total consumption of electricity is about one half (47% in 2014). Finland is Europe s leading country in combined heat and power production (CHP): about a third of the total heating need in The efficiency of CHP can exceed 90%. Biomass 12,7% Peat 3,2% Waste 1% Natural gas 4,3% Oil 0,2% Coal 8,3% Hydro 18,4% Nuclear 26,2% Wind 3,6% Imports 22,2% Total procurement of electricity 2016: 82.4 TWh (Finnish Energy Association) PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 6

7 Nuclear share of electricity production Iran China Pakistan India Brazil Netherlands Mexico South Africa Argentina Canada UK Russia Taiwan Romania USA Spain Finland Germany Japan South Korea Bulgaria Czech Rep. Slovenia Switzerland Sweden Armenia Hungary Ukraine Belgium Slovakia France Note! Share of production, not of total procurement Nuclear share of electricity production (%) (World Nuclear Association) PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 7

8 Structure and available alternatives Sufficiency/years in energy production At present the major part of the world s energy production is based on non-renewable resources: oil, coal, natural gas and uranium. The disadvantages of fossil fuels include large greenhouse gas emissions and in some cases longterm sufficiency. Fission nuclear power suffers from long-lived radiotoxic fuel waste. There is no problemfree way to fulfill the basic energy production needs! The foremost renewable natural resources are biofuels and hydro power. Widespread use of bioenergy especially in developing countries causes ecological problems (erosion, desertification). Solar and wind energy have the disadvantage of variable availability: they are not suited to be a base load energy solution. Annual consumption 1000 Mtoe Oil Gas Coal Uranium Very difficult to exploit Difficult to exploit Estimated additional resources Known and identified resources PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 8

9 Energy solutions are not simple! VIV AND WAGNER I BOUGHT AN ECO WATCH THAT RUNS ON SOLAR POWER. ON THIS LATITUDE IT WON T RUN FOR MORE THAN FIFTEEN MINUTES. OH, DRAT. MY WATCH RUNS ON NUCLEAR WASTE. PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 9

10 World population growth The present population of the world (about 7.52 billion in September 2017) is larger than ever. The population will unavoidably grow until at least According to the UN scenarios, the expected growth is 2 5 billion people by The growth will end by 2050 only by efficient birth control without it, the growth will continue and even accelerate in the worst scenarios. UN World Population Prospects 2017 PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 10

11 Differences in population age structure men Indonesia women U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base 2015 men Finland women population ( ) population ( 1000) PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 11

12 Energy consumption per capita World 2011 World 2000 EU 2011 EU 2000 FI 2011 FI 2000 USA 2011 USA 2000 TCE = Tonne of coal equivalent = 2, J = 8141 kwh PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 12

13 Forecasts of energy consumption and its distribution 800 Quadrillion = Btu (British thermal unit) 1055 J 1 quadrillion Btu 293 TWh Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu) U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016 Coal consumption (quadrillion Btu) by region U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016 PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 13

14 Carbon emissions forecast Carbon emissions from energy production, billion tons 30 OECD countries The industrialized way of life is strongly dependent on fossil fuels. Developing countries are aiming at the standard of living of the industrialized countries, strongly increasing the use of fossil fuels. U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook coal natural gas liquids PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 14

15 Temperature difference ( o C) CO 2 ppm Threat: climate change Mauna Loa South Pole Data from Scripps CO 2 Program Deviation of the average temperature of the Earth from the long-term average Credit: NASA Earth Observatory / Robert Simmon Year PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 15

16 Forecasts of climate change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast, range of average temperature rise by 2100 IPCC High Earth s average temperature compared to preindustrial age ( C) Paris Climate Accord 2015 IPCC Low PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 16

17 Greenhouse gas emissions by source Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions intensity of electricity generation methods. (2011 review, World Nuclear Association) PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 17

18 Comparison of electricity sources A 1000 MWe power plant produces about 8*10 9 kwh of electricity per year (at 90% plant availability), equal to a bit less than 10% of Finland s annual electricity consumption. Generating this electric energy consumes the following amounts of fuel: nuclear: ca tonnes (1 truckload, with breeder ca. 2 t, ~0.2 m 3 UO 2 /PuO 2 ) coal: 2.8 million tonnes (ca trainloads à 45 coal cars) oil: 2.2 million tonnes (ca. 780 trainloads à 45 tank cars) natural gas: 4.4 million tonnes (LNG, ca. 11 LNG tankers à m 3 ) wood chips: 27.2 million m 3 (a cube with 300-m edges; cf. annual growth of Finnish forests = 80 million m 3 ) In one year, a nuclear power plant produces tonnes of fuel waste. A coal power plant produces: CO 2 : SO 2 : NOx: ash: 6 million tonnes tonnes (partially recovered) tonnes (partially recovered) tonnes (including 400 tonnes of heavy metals, e.g. U and Th) PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 18

19 Comparison of electricity sources (2) The area required by a 1000 MWe power plant: nuclear: coal/oil: hydro: solar: wind: biomass: ca. 150 ha ca. 300 ha (requires big fuel storages on-site) a few km 2 (dam basin) km 2 (on a sunny site) km 2 (on a windy site) 4000 km 2 (e.g. a wood energy plantation) ca. 63 km x 63 km PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 19

20 Risks / disadvantages of energy sources A risk-free form of energy production without disadvantages does not exist. Fossil fuels: greenhouse gas emissions, climate change SOx and NOx emissions, particulate emissions (~70 / a / 1000 MWe) coal mining accidents (22x / MWh compared to uranium mining) oil crises (e.g. Hormuz Strait conveys 20% of the world s oil) oil tanker accidents, drilling rig accidents Nuclear power: possible radioactivity emissions in accidents nuclear proliferation, risk of weapons know-how spreading safety issues related to nuclear waste final disposal Hydropower: risk of dam breaks (earthquakes, wars, exceptional rains etc.) harm to fishing and ecosystems, destruction of original nature emissions from reservoirs (CO 2, CH 4 ): 5 25% of fossils / MWh PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 20

21 Risks / disadvantages (2) Natural gas: CO 2 emissions (climate change) NOx emissions long transfer pipelines, transport, risk of sabotage environmental damage from shale gas production Peat: greenhouse gas emissions ( renewable ) SOx, NOx and particulate emissions, radioactivity (!) loss of natural peat bogs, runoff to waterways risks related to road transport (large volumes / MWh) Biofuels: SOx, NOx and particulate emissions risks related to road transport (large volumes / MWh) Toppila peat power plant in Oulu, 2 units with a total output of 582 MWth PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 21

22 Risks / disadvantages (3) Wind power: reliability accident risk: endurance failures, turbine blade breaks (European recommendation: probability 10-6 /a) effects on natural scenery, biological populations and land use; noise large space requirement /MWh energy intensive manufacturing of building materials Solar power: reliability effects on natural scenery, biological populations and land use large space requirement /MWh energy intensive manufacturing of building materials It is impossible to unambiguously rank various forms of energy production by their risks and disadvantages. it is important to make comparisons proportioned to the produced amount of energy the risks and disadvantages of nuclear power are much better known than e.g. the consequences of climate change. PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 22

23 Mortality / 1000 TWh e Source: Forbes COAL COAL (USA) Greatest contributing factor: coal: combustion gases oil: combustion gases biofuels: combustion gases natural gas: combustion gases hydro: accidents solar: accidents (e.g. falls) wind: accidents (e.g. falls) nuclear: accidents (including Chernobyl and Fukushima) COAL (CHINA) OIL GAS BIOMASS SOLAR WIND HYDRO Global electricity generation is about TWh e (2016) The hydro power figure (1400) is influenced by the 1975 Banqiao dam break, which killed about people. For e.g. Europe, the corresponding number is about 100. NUCLEAR PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 23

24 Background radiation doses by source Natural background radiation components 100 rem = 1 Sv = 1 J/kg radiation energy absorbed in biological tissue mrem/a annual radiation doses from various natural radiation sources rem = Roentgen Equivalent Man 100 PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 24

25 Will nuclear energy save the world? VIV AND WAGNER MMM,NUCLEAR POWER. THIS IS A TABLETOP MODEL. DID YOU HAVE TO BUILD IT ON THE KITCHEN TABLE?!! IT PRODUCES ENOUGH ELECTRICITY FOR ONE COUPLE. WHERE WILL WE EAT NOW? IN RESTAURANTS. PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 25

26 Global outlook for nuclear energy IAEA, 1998 Nuclear energy production will in the future grow strongest in Asia and Eastern Europe. In Western Europe and North America, the decommissioning of old reactors diminishes net growth Nuclear generation (10 3 TWh) US EIA: International Energy Outlook 2013 The latest forecasts point to continuous growth: the High Nuclear scenario seems probable in spite of the Fukushima accident. China rest of the world India Russia OECD Europe rest of Asia USA Japan PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 26

27 The energy future? A guaranteed supply of energy is crucial if the present way of life is to be maintained the additional energy can only be produced by non-renewable energy sources renewable sources can only have a limited effect getting rid of nuclear power would make the problems much worse the imbalance between developing and industrialized countries will continue energy production crises are quite probable No major structural changes in the next 50 years fusion energy probably introduced in the late 21 century, insignificant share at first To limit the effects of climate change, it is important not to shun any greenhouse gas free or lowemission energy source. PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 27

28 Pluses and minuses of nuclear power Environment friendly: no greenhouse gas emissions, minimal pollution solid energy system, reliable mature technology competitive in terms of economy large units, big investments Used fuel radioactive for a long time, other wastes pose no problems; amounts of waste are very small compared to fossil fuels good safety culture no accidents bad experiences of weak safety culture: Chernobyl (& Fukushima) possible nuclear proliferation terrorist attacks, wars (?) n n U 235 n Xe 135 Sr 89 n U 238 Pu 239 Breeding new fuel n neutrons keep up the chain reaction Energy Fission products n n PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 28

29 Fusion: long-term solution (?) Practically limitless supply of fuel (heavy isotopes of hydrogen) fuel waste consists of helium a boon to the balloon industry no transuranics, no fission products the fusion reaction can t go out of control small residual heat production after shutdown reactor structures get radioactive; tritium nuclear technology (?) price of fusion energy (?) PHYS-E0460 Introduction to Reactor Physics (2017) 29