Civil et Urbain. Approach, Method and Tool for "Risks Management related to Climate Change and its impact on Infrastructures": the GeRiCi Project
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1 Réseau du Génie Civil et Urbain PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P1 GeRiCi Approach, Method and Tool for "Risks Management related to Climate Change and its impact on Infrastructures": the GeRiCi Project
2 Why GeRiCi? PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P2 GeRiCi Infrastructures designed according to specific events references (i.e. frequency) Accepted risk References on Specific events are based on past experience with a stable global climate hypothesis "The climate change is in progress" (ONERC,24/06/2005) Climate Change modifies the real risk level and challenges conception rules
3 Why GeRiCi? PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P3 GeRiCi How can the climate evolution be predicted for the 50 next years? No evolution model is certain, all models lead to "probabilities" Increase of unusual climate events (strength - frequency) caused by climate change Increase of their impacts urbanisation, increase of trades Risk management direction
4 PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P4 GeRiCi Impacts of unusual climate events (1/7): Source : SANEF Wind December 1999 Storm in France: winds from 160 to 200 km/h Source : ASF/ Escota Drought Summer 2003 : forest fire close to A8 motorway near Vidauban (Var)
5 Impacts of unusual climate events (2/7): PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P5 GeRiCi Scetauroute/A. Berenguier February 2001: Snowbound traffic on A40, and A8 at Saint-Maximin (South of France) after copious snowfalls at night. ASF/ Escota Snow
6 Impacts of unusual climate events (3/7): PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P6 GeRiCi Source : ASF Slip road flooded with surface water Source : SANEF Rain & Flood 8 July 2001: A1 motorway flooded near Roye (North of France), following strong storms
7 PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P7 GeRiCi Impacts of unusual climate events (4/7): Flood in USA Flood in Bulgaria June 2005
8 PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P8 GeRiCi Impacts of unusual climate events (5/7): Photo:J. O'Connor (for MCEER) The easternmost span of the westbound US 90 bridge was thrown north more than 50 feet. Hurricane and Bridges US 90 Eastbound - Pass Christian to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi Photo:J. O'Connor (for MCEER) The superstructure units for the bridge were displaced to the north and many dropped off the piers
9 PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P9 GeRiCi Impacts of unusual climate events (6/7): Hurricane and Roads Network Many approach spans to Interstate 10 (New Orleans, Louisiana) were underwater. The ramps were used to support emergency operations Photo:J. O'Connor (for MCEER)
10 PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P10 GeRiCi Impacts of unusual climate events (7/7): Photo:J. O'Connor (for MCEER) Hurricane and Pavements Large masses of asphalt pavement peeled off US-90 Southeast of Slidell, Louisiana
11 Meteorological Catastrophes PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P11 GeRiCi Losses in USD billion values Decade comparison Factor Factor s/60s 90s/60s Number Economic losses Insured losses Economic losses Ensured losses Disasters causing more than 100 hurts and/or 100 MUSD of insured compensation Source: Munich Reinsurance Company
12 PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P12 GeRiCi An Applied Research Program : after a Call for Proposals by RGCU (French Ministry for Infrastructure - National Network for Urban and Civil Works) supported by DRAST (French Ministry for Infrastructure - Directorate for Scientific and Technical Affairs) A network of 7 partners: SCETAUROUTE SANEF ASF.. BCEOM.. METEO France.. LCPC... ESRI. GIS tool Project leader. Expectations and needs of.. clients & operating companies.. Hydraulics Expertise.. Meteorological data... High-level expertise
13 GeRiCi objectives (1/2) PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P13 GeRiCi Design of a Climate Risk Analysis and Management Model for Infrastructures Design of a Risk Management Tool: - Short term action of alert and prevention for operating managers facing an unusual event - Medium term action to adapt infrastructures to the Climate Evolution Propositions of Palliative Measures to mitigate the Risks
14 GeRiCi objectives (2/2) PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P14 GeRiCi Identification of Risk Factors Climate Factors (rain, wind, ) Infrastructure Intrinsic Factors Site Factors (evolution, increase,...) Assessment of the Infrastructure sensitivity (issues at stake) Determination of Risk Levels and their critical loads Adjustment to Climate Data evolution Knowledge and Experience Capitalisation for sustainable relevance of both method and tool
15 Risk Analysis PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P15 GeRiCi Our consortium works in partnership with a high-level Expert specialised in Risk Management (broad experience in nuclear industry and other industrial sectors). This partnership enables us to provide a Methodology of high-professional level, specifically adapted to Road/Motorway Sector and Climate Change issues.
16 The UE: Unwanted Events PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P16 GeRiCi A Meteo-France data table detailing strength and frequency of each weather phenomenon: - Cold / Frost -Snow -Rain - Floods - Dog days -Wind Can be combined in pairs: - Frost and rain - Frost and snow - Rain and wind - Flood and wind -etc.
17 Scope of Expertise PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P17 GeRiCi 7 Domains of Expertise : - Pavements - Geotechnics - Bridges - Environment - Equipment - Big Hydraulics - Little Hydraulics and drainage Each domain of Expertise is structured in: "Families" (as "sign gantries" for Equipment), "Sub-families" (as "A type sign gantries"), and "Objects" (as " A type sign gantry at mileage point X). Though, each infrastructure to be analysed is fully detailed by objects. So, an object is a unique element, with only one geo-localisation. (sign gantry, tree, bridge, canopy, culvert, low point, electric line, )
18 Unwanted Event PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P18 GeRiCi Combining Objects Vulnerable to this specific Event Wind speed limit before object failure GIS Risk Map
19 PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P19 GeRiCi Risk maps are analysed in light of their foreseeable consequences on: -Costs - Infrastructure s Durability - Continuity of service to Users - Users' safety - Prejudicial effects to Environment This leads to the identification of critical scenarios: - Route disruption - Disruption of access to sensitive structures - People injuries Risk Matrix (Frequency / Severity)
20 Example of Risk Matrix: PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P20 GeRiCi Acceptable Unacceptable Risk Frequency < 1 h From 1 h to 24 h High Medium Low Consequence : Route disruption From 1 to 2 days > 2 days
21 The way to the tool PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P21 GeRiCi -1 st Step: «risk analysis» methodology -2 d Step: tool programming - risks identification - Climatic risk vulnerability for all infrastructure s objects -3 d Step: GIS Diagnostic tool setting up to keep count in the future of best knowledge in climatic change data and their effects, or infrastructure s modifications, this tool is evolved to be modified easily -4 th Step: palliative measures to improve the risk level acceptability -5 th Step: Alert System Alert System for Road Manager (link between Météo France Alert System and GIS tool)
22 Progress status of the Project (1/2) PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P22 GeRiCi -1 st Step: «Risk Analysis» is completed -2 d Step: in progress. We are : Recording all climate event consequences on infrastructure in the world (with more detail in France) Creating a Knowledge Database for Operators, with geo-localisation of past critical scenarios and their consequences Working with experts to assess the impacts of unusual climate events on objects (and define subsequent research action as necessary)
23 Progress status of the Project (2/2) PIARC Seminar Ha Noi - April P23 GeRiCi -3 d Step: GIS Diagnostic tool is in progress. First tests on a 10 kms long motorway section are convincing - The global approach is now complete and can be used to assist various stakeholders (Ministry Road Direction, Roads Operating Managers, ) - The GIS tool will be operational at the end of 2006
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