Agriculture at the centre of global challenges. Vladimir Sucha, Director General, Joint Research Centre, European Commmission

Transcription

1 Agriculture at the centre of global challenges Vladimir Sucha, Director General, Joint Research Centre, European Commmission 1

2 Projections towards 2050 Per capita food consumption (kcal/day) Food demand increase by 60% Source: FAO 2012

3 Climate change Agricultural production Water availability Land/soil

4 Feed demand Food demand Agricultural production Nutrition change Bio-based energy Bio-based materials

5 Source: Population data from UN 5

6 Land availability Land produces 95% of the calories Only 13-18% naturally highly fertile In the EU 25 m2/s degradation rate Source A.R. Jones JRC from FAO Map of World Soil Resources 1:

7 2010: 2.93 ha 2050: 1.26 ha 1950: 13.2 ha Source: UN population data 7

8 The Water Challenge Source: EEA % of water used in agriculture, 89% in % gap between global water demand and supply by

9 9

10 Adding Complexity Water-Energy Source: Lundqvist et al., in Water, food security and human dignity (2015), Swedish FAO Committee

11 Climate change GHG emissions Feed demand N/P pollution Bio-based energy Culture/values behaviours Food demand Water availability Nutrition change Land/soil Bio-based materials 11

12 Health Sustainability Source: pininterest.com 12

13 Solutions 13

14 Managing complexity Nexus principle Understanding interdependences Water Energy Food Land - Ecosystem Holistic modelling platforms 14

15 Data analytics and visualisation 15

16 Resource efficiency 16

17 Food waste EU = 123 kg/cap/y Sub-Saharan Africa, S and SE Asia = 6 11 kg/cap/y 17

18 Biomass Almost ¼ of biomass in EU not used Non used biomass 23 % Forestry 17% Agriculture 60% Source JRC 2015: The bioeconomy in the European Union in numbers Facts and figures on biomass, turnover and employment

19 Productivity Growth in World Agricultural Output (%) At least 1,7% annual growth in world agricultural output needed Source: Fuglie (2015) and JRC own calculation

20 Agricultural productivity and R&D Slowdown in agricultural productivity after 1990 (Globally) Slowdown in public agriculture R&D spending (e.g. U.S.) Source: Science (Alston, 2009)

21 Technology uptake and advanced technologies 21

22 Sustainable solutions for growing more food forward-thinking-architecture-japa- floating-responsive-agriculture / Floating Farms and Floating Cities Urban agriculture Vertical Farm 22

23 The Sentinel, Galileo era Observation Geopositioning the Copernicus earth observation imaging capacities will soon allow weekly monitoring of every crop production area in the World Source: JRC P. Soille, et al. Towards a JRC Earth Observation Data and Processing Platform 23

24 EU in technological innovation 50% 45% 40% % Publi EU % Patent EU 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Conventional Crop Irradiation plant genetic transformation (Agrobact.) GPS in Agriculture Precision farming Sensors in agriculture Robots and Drones Synthetic Meat Genome editing Traditional technologies New Technologies Source: JRC cumulative graphs, data based on Scopus and Patstat to 2014.

25 Conventional plant genetic transformation (agrobacterium) Korea, 15% Russia, 2% Korea, 12% Crop Irradiation Russia, 4% Japan, 12% GPS in Agriculture Korea, 3% Russia, 3% Japan, 5% EU, 3% US, 13% Korea, 1% Japan, 2% EU, 3% Precision farming Russia, 7% China, 57% 655 patents Japan, 24% Sensors in agriculture Russia, 9% Korea, 8% EU, 6% US, 6% China, 43% 1934 patents EU, 8% US, 12% Robots and Drones Korea, 8% Japan, 6% Russia, 4% China, 56% 359 patents US, 13% Japan, 11% China, 48% EU, 7% US, 5% China, 63% 91 patents EU, 13% US, 8% 2727 patents China, 68% 331 patents Korea, 11% Japan, 9% Synthetic Meat Russia, 8% Japan, 16% Korea, 8% Genome editing Russia, 0% China, EU, 5% 58% EU, 0% US, 3% 700 patents US, 30% Source: JRC cumulative graphs, data based on Patstat to 2014 China, 19% 37 patents Patenting for main players in 8 agriculture-related technologies

26 Culture and behaviour 26

27 Urbanisation Middle class growth % Food + 33% Animal proteins Change in the nutrition, consumption pattern 27

28 Frequency Food waste EU: 123 kg/cap/y D, NL, DK RO UK Source: JRC Vanham et al. 2015

29 Main Messages Land and water becoming critical with collateral consequences for the EU We need to manage complexity Better use of existing material resources Cutting edge technology and technology uptake to increase the productivity Social innovation and behavioral change 29