Precision Farming s Global Future
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1 Precision Farming s Global Future Markwart von Pentz 1 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
2 Agenda Farming continues to have a great future The evolution of agriculture and economic headroom John Deere Precision Ag
3 MEETING THE DEMAND FOR MORE FOOD, FEED, AND FUEL 3 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
4 Agriculture and Global Challenges Improving Diets Enabled by Higher Income Population Growth in Urban Areas Rural to Urban Migration 21 st Century Challenge: Sustainably produce enough food, feed, fiber, and fuel from the same or fewer resources utilizing new technologies Limited Arable Land, Water and Environmental Constraints
5 Billions Urbanization: Rural -> Urban Population Shift Urban Population Rural Population Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014 Revision
6 The global challenge: to ensure there is no productivity gap Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index Required Rate Current Rate Global food production must increase at least 70% by Little additional land available, less water, climate change, societal constraints. Investment in agriculture must increase 50% by 2050 to meet required productivity increase. Source: USDA ERS, 2014; GHI, Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
7 MMT World food flows Net interregional trade 250 NoAmer SoAmer BlkSea Australia CentAmer SSAfrica Europe MENA Asia Importers more people than land Exporters more land than people Source: UN FAO, USDA, GTIS Global Trade Atlas
8 The Evolution of Agriculture and Economic Headroom
9 Innovation and Technology in Agriculture Farming 1.0 Mechanization - Animal Power Farming 2.0 Mechanization Combustion Engine Farming 3.0 Guidance Systems and Precision Farming Farming 4.0 Connected Farming John Deere Precision Ag Goal: To identify the economic headroom in key production systems
10 Revenue* Cost Economic Headroom Economic Headroom The identified opportunity that can be unlocked through cost reductions and/or revenue improvements in the production system Revenue Increase Potential $/Acre Example: Precision Weed Management 2% yield increase -50% herbicide costs reduction Value in System Now Agronomic/economic model Cost Reduction Potential For a Job or Set of Tasks $23/Acre Economic Headroom 10 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
11 Corn Soybean Grain Sugar Dairy Rice Key Production Systems Across the Globe
12 What s the Business Case for Precision Farming?
13 A Farm is a Factory in a Remote Area 40% 50% 90% 13 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
14 Precision Agriculture Evolving Innovation Challenge 2016 and Beyond: A System Approach 3. Smart, Connected Product 5. System of Systems 1.Product 2. Smart Product Production System 1.Product 2. Smart Product 3. Smart, Connected Product + Farming Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
15 1 Costs/profit (USD/ac.) Yield (bu/ac.) WHEAT PRODUCTION Key cost elements, yield and profit (avg ) Machinery Diesel Seeds Nitrogen Phosphorus Potash Herbicides Fungicides Insecticides Profit (incl. subsidies/rent) Crop yield Alberta 4900 ac. Germany 3200 ac. Ukraine 16,500 ac. Russia 49,400 ac. Source: agri benchmark data (typical farms = highly detailed case study data)
16 Sc. 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Economic Headroom Calculations for precision farming technologies (Expert judgment, non cumulative) controlled traffic farming variable rate application CP (fungicides, CGRs, by section) optimized combine residue management spot spraying weeds, two products small grain singulation manure sensing + variable rate application variable rate application CP (fungicides, CGRs, full width) variable rate application P/K variable rate application N section control: individual nozzle control, seed control AutoTrac RTK section control: nutrients and CP (6x5 sections) AutoTrac SF USD/ac. Revenue Seed Fertilizer Crop Protection Depreciation & Interest Repair Fuel Labor 16 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016 Source: Project of HSWT University with John Deere
17 XXXL Farming in Kazakhstan: Growing Small Grain Total Cost $3.98/bu $0.39/bu Harvest Management & Overhead Costs $0.70/bu $0.61/bu Weed Management Total cost Price Yield Profit/ac = $3.98/bu = $4.55/bu = 19.3 bu/ac = $11.0/ac Farm size = 2.2M ac Total profit = $24.2M Tillage $0.24/bu Seeding + Fertilizer $2.03/bu Source: agri benchmark data (typical farms = highly detailed case study data) 2011 data
18 1 Costs/profit (USD/ac.) Yield (bu/ac.) SOYBEAN PRODUCTION Key cost elements, yield and profit (avg ) Machinery Diesel Seeds 250 Nitrogen Phosphorus Potash Herbicides Fungicides Insecticides Profit (incl. subsidies/rent) Crop yield Iowa 1700 ac. Brazil 3200 ac. Ukraine 6400 ac Source: agri benchmark data (typical farms = highly detailed case study data)
19 1 Costs/profit (USD/ac.) Yield (bu/ac.) Key cost elements, yield and profit in corn production (avg ) Machinery Seeds Phosphorus Herbicides Insecticides Crop yield Diesel Nitrogen Potash Fungicides Profit * Iowa 1700 ac. -58 Brazil 3200 ac. France 270 ac Ukraine ac. 0 * Profit = net return after all costs (incl. own land and labor) and incl. subsidies 19 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016 Source: agri benchmark data (typical farms = highly detailed case study data)
20 USd/bu. FX impact: corn major exporters UAH Corn ARS Corn BRL Corn CBOT Corn $8.33 $ $4.91 $ Source: Bloomberg, 28 November 2016; Deere analysis 20 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
21 John Deere Precision Ag
22 Data enabled agriculture The future is NOW Operations Center Data, Data Management Telematics Site specific farming Guidance 22 Precision Farming s Global Future December 5, 2016
23 Traditional Agriculture Precision Agriculture Bigger. Faster. Stronger. Easier. Smarter. More Precise.
24 Connecting People, Equipment, Technology and Insights Dealers Partners Connect Machines Connect Operators Connect Fields Machine & Fleet Monitoring Operator & Job Management Set-up & Analyze
25 John Deere suite of mobile apps Get more out of your equipment and your business
26 John Deere Data Principles Value Transparency Control
27 Economic Headroom Potential JD Precision AG Small Grain example from Europe Dealer Services POWERGARD AMS Support Non-/Connected Machine MyJobConnect MyFieldConnect CUSTOMER VALUE -10% INPUTS +20% PERFORMANCE -50% ADMIN -20% -10% INPUTS Better machine operation due to Automation Better machine uptime and performance through Connected Support Better Job Execution Higher yields With less inputs Equipment Technology Higher yields with less Inputs GROW LEAD ENABLE
28 Summary : 1. In order to feed 9.5B people field output has to double 2. You are competing with lower cost producers around the world 3. Production Systems and Economic Headroom concepts are foundational 4. Precision Farming allows to grow more output with less input
29 From planning to harvest, only John Deere seamlessly connects people, equipment, technology and insights to give you a greater advantage.
30
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