Drought, Water ScarcityandGlobal Change: Experiences from International Projects
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1 Drought, Water ScarcityandGlobal Change: Experiences from International Projects Henny A.J. van Lanen
2 Perspective
3 Drought: recurrent phenomenon Pan-European view EEA (2012)
4 Drought: pan-european trends Trends in historic August flow decreasing increasing Stahl et al. HESS (2010; 2012)
5 Drought: pan-european trends Trends in Drought Deficit Volume increasing decreasing Alderlieste & Van Lanen DROUGHT-R&SPI Tech Rep (2012)
6 Water stress in Europe Floerkeet al. (2011); EEA (2012)
7 Climate change Hansen et al. PNAS (2012) Dai, Nature (2012)
8 Future DROUGHT Photo: Jay Janner There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21 st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. This applies to regions including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa. Elsewhere there is overall low confidence because of inconsistent projections of drought changes. IPPC-SREX (2012)
9 Projected minimum river flow Rojaset al. (2012); EEA (2012)
10 Future Water stress in Europe Floerkeet al. (2011); EEA (2012)
11 DROUGHT: uncertainty Sheffield et al. Nature (2012) Seneviratne, Nature (2012)
12 Drought projections Confidence limited: lack of observational data definitional issues inability of models to include all the factors that influence droughts IPPC-SREX (2012)
13 Data Lack of observational data
14 classical rainfall deficit drought C Drought Typology wet-to-dry-season drought Definitional issues drought types - meteorological J M M J S N -soil - hydrological Underlying drought generating processes J M M J S N Van Loon, HESS 2012)
15 Drought and Water Scarcity Tallaksen & Van Lanen (2004); Expert Group WS & Dr (2007)
16 Drought and Water Scarcity Tallaksen & Van Lanen (2004); Expert Group WS & Dr (2007)
17 Drought and Water Scarcity Van Loon, WRR (under review)
18 Drought and Water Scarcity Van Loon, WRR (under review)
19 Drought and Water Scarcity Aquatic States Frequency (Evrotas Basin, Greece) Querner et al. IAHS (2011)
20 Drought and Water Scarcity Aquatic States Frequency (Evrotas Basin, Greece) Querner et al. IAHS (2011)
21 Global change impact cascade Downscaling and bias-correction Uncertainty EEA (2012)
22 Science-Policy-Interfacing
23 EU-FP DROUGHT Projects DROUGHT-R&SPI -
24 EU-FP DROUGHT Projects 1st pan-eu Drought Dialogue Forum science-policy interfacing right from beginning
25 Concluding Remarks Global change impacts cascade: eventuallyassessment of impacts, incl. reduction / estimation uncertainty collate and and include observations multi-model, multi-scenario investigations required drought types need to be distinguished catchment characteristics need to be considered for hydrological droughts Observational-modeling framework needed: distinguish between water scarcity and drought impact assessment, attribution of causes for trends
26 Concluding Remarks(cont d) Science-Policy-Interfacing Clear development from natural science only towards progressing science and science-policy-making At detailed scales (context specific) easier than at pan- European scale Focus needed, e.g. clearly address the WFD articles Hard to come to a joint meeting: back-to-back with policymakers
27 Thank you
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