Drought. Key Achievements and Challenges HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES. Henny A.J. van Lanen Jaroslav Mysiak Richard Harding

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1 HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES Drought Key Achievements and Challenges Henny A.J. van Lanen Jaroslav Mysiak Richard Harding

2 Drought and Floods Drought: - larger spatial scale - longer temporal scale than Floods Stahl & Hisdal (2004)

3 Drought Multi-hazard: fires Soil moisture deficit heat waves Low flows and dried up rivers Low reservoir levels Forest fires Agricultural production Multi-impact agriculture aquatic/wet ecosystems navigation energy production

4 Key Achievements TRENDS IN DROUGHT Is drought becoming more extreme? - meteorological drought (T, Prec, incl. snow) - hydrological drought (groundwater, river flow) Tallaksen &van Lanen (2007)

5 Key Achievements TRENDS IN HISTORIC DROUGHTS Timing of minimum flow (earlier, later,..) About 600 small, undisturbed basins Period: Stahl et al. (2008) sig. Neg. trends: 8.7 % sig. Pos. trends: 0.4 %

6 Key Achievements FP6 WATCH data and Modelling scheme for drought assessment FUTURE DROUGHT (2020, 2050,2100) CLIMATE-HYDROLOGY-DROUGHT MODELLING van Lanen & Tallaksen (2009) Characteristics: - integrated models (coarse-scale) - off-line approaches (more detailed). combined modeling and observations. downscaling. bias correction. uncertainty propagation. feed backs

7 Key Achievements Space-time development of drought in the Danube Basin: precipitation (upper) and river flow (lower) SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHARACTERIZATION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF DROUGHT (propagation) van Lanen et al. (2009)

Key Challenges SHORT TERM: to advance knowledge on: - off-line approaches

quantifies hydrological drought characteristics as a response to

drought (growth and decay) to assess likely - space-time distribution of

8 Key Challenges SHORT TERM: to advance knowledge on: - off-line approaches FUTURE DROUGHTS CLIMATE-HYDROLOGY-DROUGHT MODELLING - generic approach that quantifies hydrological drought characteristics as a response to meteorological drough - characterization of the spatio-temporal structure of drought (growth and decay) to assess likely - space-time distribution of future large-scale drought (incl. synchronicity) LONG TERM: to develop adequate Earth System Model

9 Key Achievements Drought monitoring and Early Warning DROUGHT MONITORING AND FORECASTING 2010 DROUGHT Prec anamoly (NOAA) Soil moisture anomaly (EDO-JRC)

10 Key Achievements Drought forecasting (monthly and (multi-)seasonal DROUGHT MONITORING AND FORECASTING 2010 DROUGHT ECMWF anomalies: precipitation temperature 2m lead time 3 months (MJJ)

11 Key Achievements DROUGHT MONITORING AND FORECASTING DROUGHT? climate and hydrological ensembles forecasting system (EFS) Schaake (2006)

12 Key Challenges Significantly improve probabilistic forecasting for (multi-)seasonal droughts in Europe - taking better into account land-atmosphere feedbacks (vegetation, soil moisture and snow); - ensemble-based probability information through multiple forecast models and multiple hydrologic models; - link between droughts, weather types, sea surface temperature patterns and teleconnection patterns (e.g. NAO). DROUGHT MONITORING AND FORECASTING

13 Drought impacts Droughts are exogenous supply shocks with far-reaching ripple effects physical environmental economic social Mysiak (2009)

14 Drought economic costs Drought Estimated costs Description Source Billion US $ drought events in U.S Ross and Lott (2003) US Riebsame et al. (1991) 2002 > 13 US Hayes et al (2004) % farm GDP, <1% of GDP US RBA (2006) ,000 jobs California, US Howitt et al. (2009) % of GDP decline, 1% of unemployment Australia Adams et al. (2002)

15 Drought Drought has severe impacts on the environment, economy and society Some key figures for Europe: in 2003 more than 100 million people and a third of the EU territory was affected; the cost to the European economy was at least 8.7 billion; over the past thirty years, droughts have dramatically increased in number and intensity in the EU and the cost in this period amounts to 100 billion; Climate change is expected to make matters worse

16 Drought impacts Vulnerability? & Resilience? Direct costs + Higher order effects difficult because of data gaps, multiple costing methods and conceptualisations of losses tangible (but difficult to trace) intangible (and often unobserved) attribution of observed effects (responses to multiple stressors) to drought

17 Drought CONCLUSIONS: close links with forest fires and heat waves (multi-hazard); severe environmental and socio-economic impacts; challenges (physical system, impact assessment, drought management are waiting for us (global change)

Drought THANK YOU! henny.vanlanen@wur.nl http://typo38.unesco.

no/edc EC-IP WATCH: WATer and global Change: http://eu-watch.

18 Drought THANK YOU! European Drought Centre: EC-IP WATCH: WATer and global Change: EC-CSA XEROCHORE: An Exercise to Assess Research Needs and Policy Choices in Areas of Drought

Drought, Water ScarcityandGlobal Change: Experiences from International Projects

Drought, Water ScarcityandGlobal Change: Experiences from International Projects Henny A.J. van Lanen Perspective Drought: recurrent phenomenon Pan-European view EEA (2012) Drought: pan-european trends