Drought in Europe: hazard, impacts, management and science-policy interfacing
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1 Drought in Europe: hazard, impacts, management and science-policy interfacing (experiences from EU, UNESCO, WMO-GWP funded projects) Henny A.J. van Lanen
2 IMPACTS UK 2012 Courtesy: Trevor Bischop (EEA)
3 Urgent questions What is the current state of drought in Europe and what will be the future? Trends Do we observe more frequent or severe drought? What will the future bring? Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought?
4 DROUGHT IN EUROPE OUTLINE NATURAL HAZARD IMPACTS MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-POLICY MAKING
5 Urgent questions What is the current state of drought in Europe and what will be the future? Trends Do we observe more frequent or severe drought? What will the future bring? Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought? Which indicators? How to communicate to stakeholders, policy makers and general public?
6 Indicators Manifold!! Threshold Aproach
7 INDICATORS Drought propagation Van Loon (PhD, 2013) derived from: Wilhite, NMDC
8 Indicators Drought propagation Precipitation Classical rainfall deficit drought Soil moisture Groundwater River flow Van Loon & Van Lanen, (HESS, 2012) time
9 INDICATORS Two types of approaches STANDARDISED APPROACHES THRESHOLD METHODS
10 INDICATORS Two types of approaches STANDARDISED APPROACHES THRESHOLD METHODS
11 Indicators SPI = Standardized Precipitation Index (meteorological indicator) SPEI = Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index
12 Indicators SPI = Standardized Precipitation Index SPEI = Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index SGI = Standardized Groundwater Index SRI = Standardized Runoff Index
13 INDICATORS Standardised approaches Ten Broek et al., (DROUGHT-R&SPI TR 15, 2014 )
14 Indicators Study past drought (meteorological indicators SPI, SPEI) European Drought Reference Database (EDR) Development of 1976 drought (example of use of indicators) Stagge et al. (DROUGHT-R&SPI TR 12, 2013)
15 Drought: pan-european trends Trends in August drought ( ) dryer wetter Stahl et al. (HESS, 2012)
16 Future drought Mediterranean meteorological drought soil moisture drought Orlowski & Seneviratne (HESS, 2013)
17 INDICATORS Two types of approaches STANDARDISED APPROACHES THRESHOLD METHODS
18 INDICATORS
19 INDICATORS Threshold approach (VARIABLE) Van Loon et al. (IAHS, 2010)
20 Impacts Drought in bread baskets across the globe at the same time? (Water - Food Nexus) Large-scale model: WaterGAP WATCH Forcing Data July 1976 Van Huijgevoort et al., 2011
21 DROUGHT IN EUROPE OUTLINE NATURAL HAZARD IMPACTS MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-POLICY MAKING
22 INDICATORS Use of indicators for impacts and management AWARENESS OPERATIONAL
23 Impacts in Europe Period % area in Europe suffered from drought 17% of European population Last 30 years total damage 100 billion Year 2003: estimated damage to agriculture 9 billion EEA (2012) EC (2007)
24 IMPACTS Link natural hazard to drought impacts European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII) State: Nov Stahl et al. (DROUGHT-R&SPI TR 3, 2012)
25 INDICATORS Use of indicators AWARENESS OPERATIONAL
26 Pan-European scale EU Mandate
27 Monitoring AWARENESS Courtesy: Fabio Micale (JRC)
28 Indicators are different! Relevant for management Meteorological indicators Soil moisture indicators Europe, March 1976 Hydrological indicators Wanders et al. (GRL, submitted)
29 Indicators are different SPI-12 August 1996 SPEI-12 SGI-12 Ten Broek et al., (DROUGHT-R&SPI TR 15, 2014 )
30 IMPACTS Meteorological drought over Hydrological drought continues Courtesy: Trevor Bischop (EEA)
31 IMPACTS Link drought types to impacted sectors Wanders et al. (GRL, submitted)
32 INDICATORS Use of indicators AWARENESS OPERATIONAL (water resources indicators, impact-related)
33 Management
34 Management weekly meeting
35 A
36 DROUGHT IN EUROPE OUTLINE NATURAL HAZARD IMPACTS MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-POLICY MAKING
37 Drought Dialogue Fora Right from beginning!
38 Drought Dialogue Fora
39 Drought Dialogue Fora
40 Drought Dialogue Fora
41 Concluding Remarks Drought in Europa Drought assessment requires distinction of different drought types (meteorological, hydrological,...) Correlation between drought indicators is rather low Potentially-impacted sector determines which drought type and drought indicator is most relevant (context-specific, impact-related) Set of single indicators serves potentially-impacted sector best, whereas combined indicators can be used for large-scale awareness raising How to calculate a drought indicator should be prescribed (factsheet?)
42 Concluding Remarks Drought in Europa Drought became more severe and is projected to become severe in multiple regions. Although uncertainty is high (excl. Mediterranean), pro-active measures are needed. Drought management on the river basin scale requires (and beyond if cross-boundary issues) a good governance structure: - Water Allocation/Distribution Committee with sufficient mandate (prior priority ranking) - Continuous dialogue between stakeholders, policy makers, water managers and scientists Drought management (part of Integral Water Management) needs adequate tools (hydrological models, impact models, DSS, risk management) and thematic and transient data (historic and real time)
43 Thank you
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