Overview of the NASS Nuts and Pecan Estimating Program. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service New Orleans, LA February 18, 2011

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1 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES Overview of the NASS Nuts and Pecan Estimating Program USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service New Orleans, LA February 18, 2011

2 NASS National Agricultural Statistics Service Administer USDA s Statistical Estimating Program Conduct the 5-year Census of Agriculture Supply statistics for USDA programs Coordinate Federal/State agricultural needs Conduct statistical research

3 NASS National Agricultural Statistics Service 46 Field Offices + Puerto Rico Never discloses individual data Release market-sensitive reports to all users at same time No political influence in estimates and forecasts

4 NASS CROP ESTIMATES STATISTICS DIVISION STATISTICAL METHODS BRANCH CROPS BRANCH LIVESTOCK BRANCH ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMICS & DEMOGRAPHICS BRANCH FRUIT, VEGETABLE, AND SPECIALTY CROPS SECTION FIELD CROPS SECTION COMMODITY SPECIALISTS COMMODITY SPECIALISTS

5 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Farm - $1,000 or more of agricultural products sold, or normally would have been sold during calendar year st Farm definition Current farm definition since 1974

6 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Farm - $1,000 or more of agricultural products sold, or normally would have been sold during calendar year st Farm definition Current farm definition since 1974 List building U.S. Code Title 7, Confidential

7 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES

8 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES

9 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture 2007 Census 1 st breakdown of total pecan farms: 12,869 - improved 11,180 - native

10 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES

11 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES

12 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES

13 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES

14 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES

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16 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES Census Follow-on: 2008 Organic Production Survey The U.S. had a total of 46 USDA certified organic pecan farms. New Mexico and Texas reported the most: 22 and 20, respectively.

17 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES NASS Fruit and Nut Surveys The Fruit and Nut surveys provide farmers and/or agribusiness with estimates and forecasts of: Crop Acreage Yield Production: total and utilized Price Value of production Disposition

18 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES Uses: NASS Fruit and Nut Surveys These surveys are a vital component of the estimation process for nut production estimates. Provide critical information on acreage, yield, production, price, utilized production, total production, and value of production to the nut industry, growers, transportation companies, farm program analysis, and economic calculation. Crop production estimates are also valuable for producers and industry to plan the marketing and movement of the commodity throughout the year.

19 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES NASS Reports for Pecans Results from the Fruit and Nut surveys are used to set pecan estimates: Crop Production Reports October December Non-citrus Annual Summary January (preliminary) July (final) Cold Storage (monthly) and a separate survey.

20 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES NASS Fruit and Nut Surveys

21 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Pecan Production Estimates NASS publishes estimates for: Improved Pecans Native (seedling) Pecans All Pecans

22 NASS NUTS and PECAN ESTIMATES NASS Pecan Surveys The Pecan estimating program relies on three major surveys: Pecan Inquiry Pecan Production and Disposition Pecan Sheller and Processors Inquiry

23 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Pecan Production Estimates Utilized Production not Total Production

24 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES States Survey Indications Pecan estimating States use grower survey indications to set production forecasts: Direct Expansions Percent condition Current/Historic production ratio Current/Historic yield ratio

25 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Field Offices Pecan Estimation Flow Review Survey Data At State Level Set State Recommendations Prepare Justification Send to Washington IDAS, etc. mini-boards, etc. Comments on weather, markets, etc. Headquarters Review Survey Data At National Level Commodity specialists Approve National Totals Agricultural Statistics Board

26 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Specialty Crops Section Chief, Crops Branch Director, Statistics Division Pecan Specialist Agricultural Statistics Review Mathematical Statistician Survey Statistician Field Office Statistician * * Provide information for their State and region on weather, markets, production inputs, etc.

27 NASS PECAN - PRODUCTION FORECASTS

28 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES

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30 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES

31 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES

32 NASS PECAN - COLD STORAGE Uses: To gauge current supplies of products available to consumers. Public price discovery. Business decisions. To monitor the health of the industry To compute industry's contribution to the agricultural sector. Our data frequently supplement production, import, and export data in balance sheets.

33 NASS PECAN - COLD STORAGE

34 NASS PECAN - COLD STORAGE

35 NASS PECAN - COLD STORAGE

36 NASS PECAN - COLD STORAGE

37 NASS PECAN - COLD STORAGE

38 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Pecan Production in Mexico

39 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Pecan Production in Mexico Source: Mexico, SIAP

40 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Mexico Pecan Production New trees coming into production Continued improvements to tree care inputs total area planted to pecan trees is forecast to reach 86,000 hectares for MY 20010/11

41 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Mexico Pecan Production Many farmers report successfully improving their yields and nut quality through changes in cultivation practices and increased input utilization. Pecans are harvested in Mexico from October to December. Pecan Product System - encourage the integrated development of pecan production regions.

42 NASS PECAN ESTIMATES Mexico Pecan Production Table 2. Mexico: In-Shell Pecan Trade Forecast for MY 2010/11, Metric Tons In-Shell Pecan Exports Pecan In-Shell Imports To: U.S. 59,000 From: U.S. 25,000

43 NASS Web Site

44 NASS PECAN ESTIMATION PROGRAM QUESTIONS?

Characterizing U.S. Fruit and Vegetable Production

Characterizing U.S. Fruit and Vegetable Production Daniel Pick, Chief & Agnes Perez, Agricultural Economist Specialty Crops and Fibers Branch The Fruit and Vegetable Industry Census of Agriculture reports