Sub-Saharan African Meat Market Opportunities

Transcription

1 June 2015 A proposal for a multi-client study of Sub-Saharan African Meat Market Opportunities The meat markets of Africa s 46 Sub-Saharan countries are rapidly evolving, but in different ways and with different needs. Gira will benchmark their progress & highlight key opportunities in their evolution. For more information, contact Rupert Claxton: rclaxton@girafood.com

2 WHY BUY THIS STUDY? The whole African Meat Opportunity at your finger tips Three core chapters feeding into a dynamic Synthesis of the rapidly evolving situation The 46 African market profiles: Easy to digest 5-6 page reports constituting a unique databank for all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Major geographic & demographic influences Political situation and support to breeders Time frame: , 2015, 2020 trend Production : Beef, Pigmeat, Poultrymeat Trade: Beef, Pigmeat, Poultrymeat Consumption: Beef, Pigmeat, Poultrymeat, Sheepmeat (inc Goat) and Fish Key drivers, brakes and 2020 outlook Meat production development: 5 detailed country profiles of the most interesting Sub- Saharan markets: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia & South Africa Selected to best show different stages and mechanisms of development of Africa s livestock production Explaining the move from traditional to commercial Covering the key meat companies in each market Major import market opportunities: 5 detailed profiles of the Continent's major importers: Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d Ivoire, Angola & South Africa Increased disposable incomes = increased demand throughout Sub-Saharan Africa What products, what import channels, from where? How will the market evolve in the medium term? Sub-Saharan African Opportunities Synthesis: Comparing the structure and forecasting the potential of the 46 markets: Which markets have the highest import potential; for what and how to enter them? The self-suppliers: developing production to keep pace with internal demand & what export potential? 2

3 Proposal Contents Background page 4 1. Scope & Objective of the Study 5 2. Methodology Staffing & Gira s Qualifications Timing & Subscription Gira s Clients in the Meat Sector 13 For more information, please contact Rupert Claxton: rclaxton@girafood.com 3

4 African African protein protein demand demand is rapidly increasing increasing rapidly But distribution & domestic production are still major limiting factors African protein demand has grown rapidly in the last 10 years Sub-Saharan African consumption was 22 million tonnes of meat cwe (+ fish) in 2014, up from under 15 million tonnes in 2004 Is this pace sustainable? SSA protein consumption volumes, (e) Traditional production methods cannot keep pace with booming urban populations & increased demand Development of industrial production in many markets is still in its infancy, but the potential is huge if cost structures and supply chains can compete against the informal market How is African meat supply transitioning, and is there an opportunity to be part of the process? Import potential is huge, with some markets already attracting significant volumes of low value cuts from major global exporters How do these fit with the local production and supply chains? Is this the long term solution for global exporters to valorising secondary cuts & by-products from expensive carcasses? SSA protein consumption share, (e) But: Sub-Saharan African consumers still have some of the lowest disposable incomes in the world, explaining average per capita meat consumption in 2014 of just 14.2 kg cwe/capita/year Will the expected increases in demand be met by imports or domestic production? How will this vary by country? 4

5 1. Scope and objectives of the Study A qualitative & quantitative basis for operational decision-making Objective: comparable data, commercial insight and forecasts to aid decision makers in African meat markets The 4 components of the Sub-Saharan African Meat Market Opportunities Study 1. African Market Profiles: the complete set of 46 Sub-Saharan African country profiles, profiling the meat market and its 2020f outlook in the context of key drivers & brakes. 2. Production Case Studies Livestock production development: 5 countries selected to analyse the most positive & proactive developments, and to understand the catalysts to growth. 3. Import Case Studies Major Import Opportunities: 5 countries that are the key importers in Africa today why and how? 4. Synthesis Sub-Saharan African Market Opportunities: pulling together the key findings and forecasts, and prioritising the exploitable similarities between markets. 5

6 1.1 African Market Profiles A user-friendly data-bank & summary, covering Sub-Saharan Africa All 46 Sub-Saharan African countries will be covered, each with its own individual mini report. Focused on Beef, Pigmeat and Poultrymeat Key Political, Geographic & Demographic drivers: Socioeconomic, political, climatic & religious influences on market development Brief background and description of breeding and commercial structures per species: Historic, current developments and medium-term trends and potential Basic balance tables f, 2020t Total meat production and trade Beef, Pigmeat and Poultrymeat Total volumes Average import price evolution Total meat consumption Beef, Pigmeat, Poultrymeat, Sheep + Goat and Fish Total volume and per capita Expected developments and trends through 2020 Major drivers and brakes on the market Where is the country s meat industry heading Import penetration and the role of imports Winners and losers Delivered as: 5-6 page mini profiles per country in a PowerPoint based document Key data in graphs and tables Short and clear explanations of key market developments. 6

7 1.2 Livestock production development Case studies Agricultural production is developing to meet internal demand 5 studies of the largest and most dynamic Sub-Saharan producer countries: Key Political, Geographic & Demographic drivers: Socioeconomic, political, climatic & religious influences on market development Detail per species e, 2015f, 2020 trends: Historic reference with current thinking and an understanding of potential Current state of production: Beef, Pigmeat and Poultrymeat Feed supply Herd / Flock developments, breeds, farm structure and evolution Who s investing, how and why The chain; Feed supply Farming Slaughter Local market Key meat company insights Market evolution Beef, Pigmeat, Poultrymeat, Sheep + Goat and Fish Traditional vs modern how and why is this evolving; opportunity or threat? Imports vs. domestic origin? Consumer perception of meats and relative market outlook Major drivers and breaks on the market How is in-country production evolving? Import threats? What is the next step and who will be making it? Delivered as 5 detailed reports Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia & South Africa In a PowerPoint based Document of approx. 30 pages each Key data graphically and in table form With its own Executive Summary, bringing together the overview, the similarities, and the differences between the countries 7

8 1.3 The Major Import Opportunities Case Studies Is Africa the next China for exporters? 5 studies of the largest and most dynamic Sub-Saharan importer countries: Key Political, Geographic & Demographic drivers: Socioeconomic, political, climatic & religious influences on meat market development Detail per species e, 2015f, 2020 trends: Historic reference with current thinking and an understanding of potential Current state of production Beef, Pigmeat and Poultrymeat Import Opportunities Beef, Pigmeat and Poultrymeat Import volumes: key products, with select pricing Route to market: Exporter Trader Wholesale / distribution Local market How does the import supply chain interact with the local market? Offal products in the system, prices and sensitivities Legislation on imports market access & trade barriers, packaging, labelling, shelf life Market evolution Imports as an integral part of the future for an affordable meat supply? Political will and industry evolution, with some real importer perspective Consumer and retailer perception of meats and relative market outlook Exporter motivation? Offloading secondary cuts & by-products and/or creating sustainable demand? Major drivers and breaks on the market How is import supply evolving, cuts, prices, supply channels? Can Africa compete in world markets? Delivered as 5 detailed reports - Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d Ivoire, Angola & South Africa In a PowerPoint based Document Key data graphically and in table form With its own Executive Summary, bringing together the overview, similarities, and differences between the countries. 8

9 1.4 Synthesis: prioritising African opportunities Comparing & contrasting the markets Key Geographic & Demographic drivers: grouping the countries by their key meat characteristics Compared across Sub Saharan Africa s 46 markets, identifying regional differences and implications Detailed per species , 2015, 2020 trends in production, trade and consumption: With each of the 46 countries compared side by side Who's growing fastest? What implication should this have for your export and investment strategy? Production lessons from the 5 case studies Beef, Pigmeat and Poultrymeat The key lessons from the 5 markets How are these transferable to the wider African market? What should investors in the African industry be aware of? Importing lessons from the 5 case studies Beef, Pigmeat and Poultrymeat Comparison of cuts, prices and routes to market Which suppliers are making the running? Market access and barriers to trade? Are the trends seen here transferable to a wider African opportunity? What major trends do we see in the developing import market; cuts, prices, distribution packaging? 2020 outlook; what will Sub-Saharan Africa mean to the global meat industry operators? What volumes will Africa need can it afford to compete in the global market or will it remain a low value point to offload unwanted cuts Delivered as an easy to use report in PowerPoint All 46 markets compared, and lessons drawn from the 10 market case studies Short overviews of key drivers and brakes on imports and domestic production. 9

10 2. Methodology Gira will use 3 tried and tested approaches to this multifaceted and highly opaque Continent: 1. Comprehensive documentary research on all publicly available sources: public databases and statistics, published studies, company and association websites, trade press etc. 2. An extensive programme of 100+ interviews across Gira s African network, and global exporters, traders, investors. In order to substantiate figures and add depth to the numbers. The why behind the numbers is as important as the numbers themselves. 3. Visits to selected African countries: in-depth research for the case studies for import & production scenarios. To see and speak to local traders, producers, industry insiders and the distribution chain. We will need to build up a coherent picture of the markets to be case-studied, allowing us to draw up our conclusions and recommendations. Gira will therefore use its experienced interviewers and its widespread contacts in Africa and worldwide in order to: Put flesh on the bone of the quantitative data for these countries Detect the main trends and reality-check our qualitative and quantitative forecasts (the people we will interview are the people who will make it happen ) Obtain national and international overviews from informed and respected sources Draw up competitive advantage analyses and market attractiveness charts Obtain information on large exporters' and producers' strategies and their views of the future Determine end-users expectations from suppliers. This information will be compiled, analysed, consolidated where relevant, and conclusions drawn explaining the current situation and justifying our forecasts and recommendations for the future 10

11 3. Staffing and Gira s Qualifications Staffing: The study will be supervised and directed by Rupert Claxton, manager at Gira with over 12 years experience in world meat markets. He is responsible for a wide range of meat sector assignments, including Gira s annual Asian Meat Club, and has been responsible for developing Gira s understanding of Africa over the last 5 years. He will oversee a highly experienced team of consultants each with up-to-date knowledge of the meat markets and operators in the countries to be covered in this study. Most of them have already been actively involved in progressing Gira s understanding of the African meat opportunities. Gira s Qualifications: Gira has been actively researching and analysing world meat markets for over 40 years Its annual world Gira Meat Club has been forecasting short-term volumes and prices for nearly this long. It has also produced a large number of strategic multiclient studies of the sector, e.g.: Processed Meat Europe, Meat in Retail, EU Meat Companies Panorama, Meat in Russia, Pigmeat in Romania, Long-term Trends in World Meat etc. As well as innumerable individual client assignments, several with recent involvement in Africa, including commercial production planning (existing and greenfield), feed analysis, and import strategy work. Gira has extensive practical experience of working in developing markets over the last 20 years, and of the pressures and constraints that this entails. During this time, Gira has built up a worldwide meat reputation and a client base second to none. This allows us access to decision-makers at all levels of the raw and processed meat supply chain a prerequisite to undertaking this unique challenge of getting under the skin of the whole African Meat Market! Only Gira possesses the global meat market experience and understanding to be able to undertake such a unique and demanding study of opportunities in this new and largely uncharted territory. 11

12 4. Timing & Subscription Timing 6 months after project go-ahead which will be given when sufficient Founder Client subscriptions are secured: e.g. if obtained by June 2015, the Reports and the Presentation will be available to clients by December Subscription A full Founder Client subscription to the complete African Meat Market Opportunities study programme costs Euros 19,500 (before any applicable taxes). This price will increase for non-founder clients. Payment will be requested as follows: 50% on invoice at the start of work 25% three months later 25% on delivery of the final Reports. For more information, please call Rupert Claxton on: , or rclaxton@girafood.com In the unlikely event that insufficient Founder Client subscriptions are obtained, Gira reserves the right not to start work on the study. In this case, any existing subscription contracts will become null and void. 12

13 6. Gira s Clients in the Meat Sector Client Country Client Country Abbott Laboratories US Hilton Food Group UK/EU ABF UK I.M.S. Intl. ABP IE/UK INAC UY Agri Ranch US Inalca/Cremonini IT AHDB UK Inaporc FR Alic JP Interbev FR ALMA CA Irish Food Board IE AMIC AU JAPFA SG Asopocicultores CO JBS BR Aviagen Intl. Kemin Intl. Bain Intl. Landbrug & Fødevarer DK Bemis Intl. LMC UK BRF BR McDonald's EU Bunge Intl. Meat & Livestock Australia AU Canada Beef CA Meat Industry Association NZ NZ Canada Pork CA Minerva BR Canadaian Cattleman's Assoc CA Multivac Intl. Cargill Inc US National Pork Board US Cargill Meats Europe EU Nutreco NL Cobb Intl. O.E.C.D. Intl. COV NL Rabobank Intl. Danish Crown DK Sealed Air Intl. Danish Farmer's Association DK Smithfield (CFG) EU/US Dawn Meats IE UECBV EU DSM Nutritional Products Intl. Unic IT Elanco EU/Intl. Unigrains FR European Commission EU VION NL/DE Fedegan CO VLAM BE H.K. Scan SF (Finland) Westbridge Foods UK HCC UK (Wales) 13