Международный конгресс «Лесные пожары и изменение климата. Проблемы управления пожарами в природных и культурных ландшафтах Евразии»

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1 Международный конгресс «Лесные пожары и изменение климата. Проблемы управления пожарами в природных и культурных ландшафтах Евразии» г. Новосибирск Rural Depopulation in European Russia: Consequences for Agriculture and Forestry Grigory Ioffe Radford University, Radford, Virginia, USA & Tatyana Nefedova, Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russia Man-made fires Tragic perception of forest fires is related to their epicenter in the Russian heartland, not to actual frequency of fires or size of affected area Causes of man-made fires Institutional Behavioral Related to spatial organization This paper is devoted to spatial organization, a cause least susceptible to change Russia s rural population 1926: 76 million; 1989: 39.1 million; : 37.6 million Depopulation in strict sense begins when deaths begin to outnumber births In the Non-Black-Earth Zone, since the 1960s Relative numerical stability of derives from three components Depopulation against the backdrop of the world s vastest national territory Areas marginalized by distance: are there too few roads or too much space? Phenomenon of inner periphery (hinterland within heartland) reclassification of towns into villages incoming migration excess of death over births In Canada, the densely packed heartlands and sparsely settled hinterlands are apart from each other, they are spatially disunited, but in Russia they interpenetrate Rural population dynamics and rural population density

2 Propitious social environment and agriculture Density of hard surface roads in European countries and regions of Russia in km per 00 sq. km Grain yields in European countries and regions of Russia, in 0 s kg per ha West-east gradient: average wheat yield in hundreds of kilos per ha (Source: FAO) France Germany Poland Belarus and Ukraine Russia 0 West-east gradient: Grain yield in the European part of the USSR in the 1980s, hundreds of kg per hectare Center-periphery gradient: Gross Agricultural Output in Thousand Rubles per Hectare Grain yields in hundreds of kg per hectare in the Non-Black-Earth Zone Milk yield in liters per cow in the Non-Black-Earth Zone suburb semi-suburb semi-periphery periphery

3 Extreme depopulation and low productivity in the internal periphery precede land abandonment Emerging archipelago of commercial farming To some extent abandonment is a pay for previous expansion Cropland alone had expanded from 52 million ha (1922) to 126 million ha (1976) Vasily Uzun (11): 23 million ha abandoned on farms existing only on paper; additionally,.5 million ha on working farms Depressed agricultural areas Positive Trend Kostroma Oblast Spatial concentration Kol Man Mak Suburb 2nd-order neighbors (semi-suburb) 3rd + th-order neighbors (semi-periphery) 5th + 6th-order neighbors (periphery) 7th 9th-order neighbors (far periphery) Manturovsky (Man), Makarievsky (Mak), and Kologrivsky (Kol) districts (periphery) were examined in detail in summer Only in the agricultural suburb of Kostroma has population not declined since 1950 Everywhere else it s declined at least by a factor of 3; cropland has shrunk 3- times since 1950; number of cattle has declined 8- times since 1970 Consequently, Kostroma district, with 3.% of the total land area, accounts for 11% of cropland, % of rural population, 17% of cattle, 67% of pigs, and 28% of gross agricultural output In the suburb, 50% of land is abandoned In the periphery and far periphery, up to 80% abandoned

4 Manturovsky Rayon Town of Manturovo 1950: 2,000 residents, 09: 5,700 residents Population density: 2 people per sq. km Natural increase: minus 1.7% Negative net migration Annually population declines by people Working age population : 2,800 including 1600 officially employed 58 people or 36% work in agriculture Illicit tree felling Manturovsky Rayon Results of illicit tree felling Area sown to crops: 9,600 ha v 17,600 ha in 1990 All rural villages at different stages of dying Still five seemingly viable villages with about 0 residents each Youths all bent on leaving irrespective of job All cases of spontaneous entrepreneurial activity in agriculture (like setting up private farms) have to do with newcomers Nine former collective farms continue to function, but only two make ends meet. The Collective farm Red Banner HQ

5 Landscape transformations deriving from land abandonment Forest has approached villages Strips of land girding the villages and initially assigned to pastures, meadows, and potato beds are now overtaken by tall grass Tragic perception of forest fires is related to their epicenter in the Russian heartland Causes of man-made fires Institutional Behavioral Related to spatial organization Surround villages by firebreaks