Food Security Bulletin

Transcription

1 Vol. 2, Issue 1 21 May 212 Food Security Bulletin Horn of Africa CONTENTS: RAINFALL ANALYSIS RAINFALL & VEGETATION ANALYSIS VEGETATION ANALYSIS LAST SEASONS ASSESSMENT CURRENT SEASON & PROJECTIONS TERMS OF TRADE IN SOMALIA GENERAL FOOD SECURITY CONDITION SOMALIA SUDAN TECHNICAL NOTE The cumulative rainfall anomaly from February to April 212

2 2 EDITORIAL FOOD CRISIS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA The overwhelming food crisis that struck the Horn of Africa last year revived fears of famine in Africa. Somalia numbers - famine declared over whole or parts of 7 regions, 4 million in crisis, tens of thousands of deaths, 64, children acutely malnourished - highlighted the need for a regular and close monitoring of the region. This task is foremost important this year, inasmuch as local populations have just started to recover from distress. Households are presently more vulnerable to new shocks: malnutrition levels are high, livestock herds have dwindled and refugees and IDPs have to adapt to new environments or endure the journey back home. Fortunately, the most affected areas, around the borders between Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, experienced favorable weather conditions at the end of 211 and beginning of 212 with a resulting increase on food and fodder availability. However, a rainfall delay and deficit have been observed during the same period in Sudan and the northern part of South Sudan. Therefore, while in Somalia areas previously classified as in famine conditions are now in the emergency phase, in Sudan and South-Sudan the situation is deteriorating and already reaches emergency levels in some regions. Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) phases and descriptions

3 RAINFALL ANALYSIS FROM OCTOBER 21 TO APRIL 212 PRINCIPLE: THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL ANOMALY IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OCT 21 JAN 211 OCT 211 JAN 212 LAST YEAR, A MAJOR DROUGHT HIT THE HORN OF AFRICA DURING TWO CONSECUTIVE SEASONS. GOOD RAINS DURING THE LAST SHORT SEASON. AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT SEASON ARE THE SOUTH-WEST SO- MALIA, SOUTH-EAST KENYA, WEST ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH-SUDAN. TOTAL RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING A PE- RIOD (A SEASON) AND THE AVERAGE OF TOTAL RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING THE SAME PERIOD IN THE PREVIOUS YEARS. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES INDICATE CONDI- TIONS THAT ARE DRYER THAN EXPECTED. Last year, a major drought hit the Horn of Africa during two consecutive seasons (October 21 to January 211 and February to April 211) leading the region to an outstanding food crisis. During the last short rainy season (top right figure), most of the affected areas received notably more rain than the historical average ( ). However, the dry season that followed was hotter and longer than normal, lessening the positive impact of the good rains on pastoral areas FEB 211 APR 211 FEB 212 APR 212 CROPLAND AREAS The current rainy season (bottom right figure) started with a little delay for some areas in south-west Somalia, west Ethiopia, south-east of Kenya and South Sudan. These areas are analysed in terms of vegetation profile on the next page. Source: JRC crop mask (v2.2) On the other side heavy rains since early April 212 have caused flash floods in the Centre and South of Ethiopia (Borena, Bale). Total rainfall anomalies (mm) with the long-term average ( ) for two seasons: from October 21 to January 211, and from February to September 211. Source: Climate Predic on Center/Famine Early Warning System (CPC/FEWS RFE2.) 3

4 RAINFALL AND VEGETATION ANALYSIS CURRENT SEASON IN SOME AREAS THE CURRENT SEA- SON HAS BEEN DELAYED BY A RAIN DEFICIT. CROPLAND AREAS IN ETHIOPIA ARE AFFECTED BY THE DEFICIT OF RAIN. FORAGE AVAILABILITY MAY DWINDLE ALL OVER PASTORAL AREAS. THE COMING WEEKS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CROPLAND AREAS Source: JRC crop mask (v2.2) PRINCIPLE: THE NORMALIZED DIF- FERENCE VEGETATION INDEX () IS DERIVED FROM SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING DATA. REMARKABLY LOW VALUES COMPARED TO THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INDICATE DROUGHT. Due to a late start of belg rains in west and south Ethiopia, the planting of short cycle belg crops has been delayed. In belg dependent areas, the bad distribution and low rainfall so far will also lead to below normal crop yield and to food insecurity. The late start of belg rains may also impact long sycle crops (sorghum and maize) which are traditionally planted at the beginning of the belg season and harvested during the meher season. As a consequence of the late onset, farmers may have opted for short cycle crops with lower expected yields. Although it is too early to assess the full impact of this delay on the crop production, the situation needs to be closely monitored in the coming weeks and months. Similar rainfall delays have been observed in Kenya, Somalia and South Sudan affecting many pastoralist areas. The forage availability could dwindle in south-east of Kenya (Ijara, Kitui, Taita Taveta), West Somalia (Saakow, Afmadow), and in the eastern part of South Sudan (Pibor).,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 Pibor (South-Sudan) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall Average Rainfall 211 Rainfall 212 Average Ijara (Kenya) Very poor Poor Normal Good Very Good Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall Average Rainfall 211 Rainfall 212 Average Country Province Total anomaly with the average ( ) for April 212. and rainfall profiles for 211 and 212 compared to the average, i.e. respectively and Sources: SPOT VEGETATION for the vegetation and CPC/FEWS RFE2. for the rainfall.,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 E. Wellega (Ethiopia) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall Average Rainfall 211 Rainfall 212 Average Saakow (Somalia) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall Average Rainfall 211 Rainfall 212 Average

5 VEGETATION ANALYSIS SON IN THE AREAS MOSTLY AFFECTED DROUGHT. CATE POOR CROP AND PASTURE PERFOR- 5,1 MANCE. Mar The Horn of Africa can be divided in areas with one or two agricultural seasons. The former (top figure) covers South Sudan, the southern part of Sudan, the central and the north west Ethiopia, while the latter (bottom figure) is situated in the south-east Ethiopia and south Somalia.,8 Apr May Rainfall Average Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Rainfall Average Gallabat (Sudan) Dec Jan Feb ,6,5 15,4 1,3,2 5,1 Vegetated areas with one growing season. Mar Apr May Rainfall Average Jun Jul Aug Sep Rainfall Oct Nov Average Guji (Ethiopia) Dec Jan Feb Source: JRC crop mask (v2.2) 25,7 LAST BI-MODAL SEASON OCT 211 FEB 212 2,6,5 Very poor,3 Poor,2 Normal 15,4 1 5 Country,1 Province Good Mar,8 Very Good Apr May Rainfall Average Jun Jul Aug Sep Rainfall Oct Nov Average Qoryooley (Somalia) Dec Jan Feb ,7 2,6,5 15,4 1,3 During the last short rainy season all the areas characterized by two growing seasons received sufficient rainfall (compared to average) and achieved average to very good biomass production levels. It is important to notice that last year s food crisis mainly affected these areas. 25,7 Delays on the vegetation onset have been observed in the mono-modal zone. They are located in the main agricultural areas of Sudan (Gadaref, Kassala and Sennar provinces, Western and Southern Darfur), west of Eritrea (among the most productive one in the country) and north-west of Ethiopia (Tigray and North Western Tigray). This delay is a consequence of the poor rains that followed the start of the season and resulted in lower net biomass production. 1,2,8 CROPLAND AREAS 15,4,3 BY,5 DURING THE LAST SHORT RAINY SEA- 2,6 GOOD CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED 25 Omhajer (Eritrea),7,2 THE LAST MAIN SEASON WAS DELAYED DUE TO DEFICIT OF RAIN.,8 LAST MONO-MODAL SEASON MAR 211 FEB 212 PRINCIPLE: THE SEASONAL CUMULATIVE FAPAR (FRACTION OF ABSORBED PHOTOSYNTHETICALLY ACTIVE RADIATION) IS CORRELATED WITH THE BIOMASS PRODUCTION. LOW VALUES OF CUMULATIVE FAPAR INDI- SEASON ASSESSMENT LAST 5,1 Vegetated areas with two growing seasons. Mar Apr May Rainfall Average Jun Jul Aug Rainfall Sep Oct Nov Average Dec Jan Feb Left: Phenologically-derived cumulative FAPAR anomalies compared to the short-term average ( ). Right: and rainfall profiles for compared to the historical average, i.e. respectively and Sources: SPOT VEGETATION, CPC/FEWS RFE2.. For more details, see the technical note at the end of the document. 5

6 VEGETATION CURRENT P RINCIPLE : THE CUMULATIVE ANALYSIS SEASON PROGRESS AND PROJECTIONS FAPAR ANOMALIES FOR THE CURRENT SEASON ARE VALUE AT THE END OF THE SEASON USING THREE POOR VEGETATION CONDITIONS ARE DETECTED IN LARGE AREAS OF ETHIOPIA, SOUTH SUDAN, SOMALIA AND KENYA. Negative anomalies are detected in South Sudan, the western part of Ethiopia, around the Victoria Lake and in the extreme southeast area in Kenya, in the southern-western and central regions of Somalia. However, the season is still in its first half in most of the sub-region, with the exception of the southern part of Kenya where the fapar anomalies suggest normal to good conditions. CLIMATIC FORECASTS ARE POSITIVE: NEUTRAL TO EL NIÑO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CROPLAND AREAS Source: JRC crop mask (v2.2) OPTIMISTIC COMPUTED AND PROJECTED TO THE EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE REGIONS THE SEASON IS STILL IN ITS FIRST HALF. PROJECTIONS SHOW A POSSIBLE DROUGHT IN THE HOA BUT NOT IN THE SAME AREAS THAN LAST YEAR S. CURRENT SEASON APRIL 212 SCENARIOS BASED ON THE SHORT TERM AVERAGE FAPAR. Projections show that in an optimistic scenario drought conditions may be overcome in the Ethiopian SNNP region, in Western and Nyanza regions of Kenya and scattered drought areas in the three Equatoria regions of South Sudan. This scenario shows that a good season may occur this year in the HoA. On the other end of the spectrum, a pessimistic scenario would lead the whole region to another crisis. However the areas mainly affected would be significantly different from last year. It is worth noticing that the climatic (CPC/ NOAA) forecast is leading to a higher probability of an optimistic scenario. This is calling for ENSO-neutral conditions up to July, followed by approximately equal chances of Neutral or El Niño conditions for the remainder of the year. AVERAGE Very poor Poor Normal Country Province Good Very Good REFERENCE SEASON PROGRESS APRIL PESSIMISTIC not started yet up to 25% up to 5% up to 75% up to 1% On the left: current season cumulated fapar anomaly for April 212 (top) and reference season progress (bottom) based on the historical average ( ). On the right: current season cumulated fapar anomalies projected according three scenarios and average progress of the season expressed in % of the total length. Source: SPOT VEGETATION. For more details, see the technical note at the end of the document. 6

7 TERMS OF TRADE SOMALIA STAPLE PRICES STARTED DECREASING ON SEPTEMBER 211 LIVESTOCK AND DAILY LABOUR GAINED IN VALUE SINCE LAST YEAR FOOD ACCESS HAVE IMPROVED VULNERABILITY WILL REMAIN LATENT FOR AN INDEFINITE PERIOD PRINCIPLE: LIVESTOCK AND LABOUR ARE IM- PORTANT ASSETS THAT CAN BE CONVERTED IN FOOD. THE TERMS OF TRADE MEASURES HOW MANY KILOGRAMS OF STAPLES CAN BE BOUGHT BY SELLING AN ANIMAL OR WORKING A DAY. THE LOWER IT IS, THE MORE EXPENSIVE FOOD IS IN REAL TERMS. Staple prices started decreasing in September 211. By December 211 they were more than 5% lower than during last year s peak. Since then, they ve been stable in most of the country. At the same time, livestock prices skyrocketed. In Baidoba market, local quality goats are now (April 212) 3 times more expensive than one year ago. Daily labour has also gained in value since the beginning of the year. In Mogadishu, a daily worker is earing 6% more than in January. This decrease on relative food prices have significantly improved food access throughout the country. It is worth noting that both population with and without livestock are potentially benefiting from it since daily labour prices also increase. However, the increase on livestock prices may represent a barrier to those aiming to recompose their herds. As a consequence, local populations may remain vulnerable to shocks for an indefinite period. Sorghum /R GOAT OAT/R /RED SORGHUM Evolution of prices in Baidoba in USD Red sorghum Goat Minor variation Increase: >2% Major increase: >5% Exceptional increase: >2% Month / Year Average Red Sorghum Average Goat Goat DAILY LABOUR ABOUR/R /RED SORGHUM Sorghum.8 Maps: terms of trade (April 212) with respect to the 5 years average at the same month. Graphs: Prices evolution in Mogadishu and Baidoa markets. Data source: FSNAU Evolution of prices in Mogadishu in USD Red sorghum Daily Labour /R Month / Year Minor variation Increase: >2% Major increase: >5% Exceptional increase: >2% Average Red Sorghum Average Daily Labour Daily Labour

8 GENERAL FOOD SECURITY CONDITION SOMALIA IN FEBRUARY 212 FSNAU DE- CLARED THE END OF THE FAMINE MORE THAN 2 MILLION PEOPLE STILL REQUIRE ASSISTANCE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, ACUTE MALNUTRITION AND MORTALITY RATES STILL REMAIN ABOVE EMERGENCY THRESHOLDS ALMOST 1 MILLION SOMALI REFU- GEES ARE IN THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TARGETS ARE FAILING TO BE MET In February 212, FSNAU declared the end of famine in southern Somalia. Malnutrition and mortality rates have improved all over the country when compared to last year as a consequence of good rains at the end of 211 and of humanitarian food and non-food assistance along with the management of disease outbreaks. The number of people still requiring assistance has been revised downward from 4 to 2.32 millions. They are mostly (1.7 million) located in the south where humanitarian access is limited. In the central and northern regions 95, rural people currently are at Emergency food security level (IPC Phase 4) and 195, are at Crisis level (IPC Phase 3). Acute malnutrition and mortality rates remain above emergency thresholds in south Somalia. The prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) ranges between 2 and 3 percent with the exceptions of the Bay region and the Juba Riverine livelihood zone, where the GAM prevalence is likely to be above 3 percent. Severe acute malnutrition rates have improved in all southern regions, crossing back the 1 percent threshold. Across the country, crude death rates are under two deaths per 1, people per day, apart from internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Mogadishu (2.6/1,/day) and in Kismayo (2.3/1,/day) (FSNAU/FEWSNET, April 212). Significant improvements have also been observed since December 211 in Mogadishu urban area: GAM rate decreased from 21.1% to 1.3%, while crude death rate went down from 1.33 to 1.22/1,/day. The registered Somali refugee population is evaluated by the UNCHR at persons. Further displacements during the next couple of months are likely to be low due to the rainy season, but may increase afterwards. Mortality rate classification deaths per 1 per day Normal <.5 Under control [.5-1[ Very serious [1-2[ Emergency [2-5[ Famine 5 Source: Hakewill and Moren, 1991 The humanitarian assistance targets are being difficult to be reached. In kind food aid reached 36% of the targeted beneficiaries from January to March 212, while food voucher and cash interventions reached 11% and 46% of their respective targets. Source: FEWS NET 8

9 GENERAL FOOD SECURITY CONDITION SUDAN CROPS PERFORMED BADLY IN MILLION TONNES CEREAL DEFICIT LOST OF 75% OF ITS PRODUCTIVE OILFIELDS INSECURITY IN THE BORDER WITH SOUTH SUDAN DETERS TRADE CEREAL AND LIVESTOCK PRICES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED SINCE LAST YEAR Following the good 21 crop season, crops have poorly performed last year in Sudan. Rain deficits negatively impacted both the area planted and yields overall the country. The 211 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission estimates a cereal production of 2.8 million tonnes, meaning a cereal deficit of almost 1 million of tonnes till the next harvest. More than 3 million people are estimated to be in need, most of them in North and South Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. IPC s emergency phase (phase 4) has been already reached in some districts of Southern Kordofan where conflict, restrictions on trade and difficult humanitarian access to the IDPs are factors on the top of the bad agricultural season. Livestock body conditions are good but, given the lack of pasture their evolution is uncertain Kartoum Al Fashir Source: FEWS NET Data source: FEWS NET Cereal imports have been made more difficult since last year s South Sudanese independence. Sudan has lost 75% of its productive oilfields and export earnings have considerably fallen. Moreover, the ongoing conflict with South Sudan deters trade between the two neighboring countries, hindering both the generation of export revenues and the arrival of grains. Cereal prices have been increasing since the middle of last year. In Kartoum sorghum prices were in March 212 9% higher than in March 211. At the same time, livestock prices are also high, boosted by the domestic demand and exports. As a consequence, food access has deteriorate for urban poor and smallholder farmers while the terms of trade remain stable for pastoralists. 9

10 TECHNICAL NOTE ESTIMATING BIOMASS PRODUCTION Vegetation biomass production is related to the capacity of the plants to use the incident light in the photosynthesis. In natural conditions, there is a linear relationship between the net biomass productivity and the fraction of the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant, the FAPAR. The net biomass production during a season can be approximated with the cumulative FAPAR over the season. The possibility to measure the FAPAR from Earth Observation satellite imagery provides a good opportunity to estimate vegetation biomass production over large or inaccessible areas where field sampling methods are impossible or inefficient. This note intends to explain briefly how to calculate the cumulative FAPAR over a season from ten-daily satellite observations. A key issue is to determine the actual period of biomass production, i.e. to define the beginning and the end of the growing season. Among the several methods available in the literature, we have chosen the one prosed by Meroni et al. (212). The second issue is to filter out the noisy observations and fill in the missing observations because unfortunately portions of the satellite imagery are often covered by clouds. The method we used resolves simultaneously the two issues by fitting a mathematical model on valid observations, which smoothes the data and provides the needed phenological parameters. The figure on the right shows a typical temporal profile of FAPAR in a region where there s one vegetation growing season per year, approximately from April to September. The estimated dates (in dekads) of the start (SOS) and the end (EOS) of the season are materialized by the dashed vertical lines, and the cumulative FAPAR, which is used as a proxy of biomass production, is represented by the blue area. Processing the full archive of FAPAR time series (from 1999 for SPOT-VEGETATION) allows to calculate, for each pixel, the average dates of the beginning and end of each season, and the average cumulative FAPAR. Those expected values are then compared with the values for the season of interest to assess the possible anomalies, either positive or negative (better or worse than a normal season, respectively). The cumulative FAPAR anomalies can be translated into forage availability, while SOS and EOS anomalies inform on the timing and length of the season. Projections for the ongoing season assume future dekadal FAPAR values till the EOS to be: the dekadal average for the average case more or less one dekadal standard deviation for the optimistic and pessimistic cases respectively. The EOS is defined as the average EOS (from the full archive) plus one standard deviations. 1

11 All maps and underlying data can be downloaded at: ftp://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/bulletin/hornafrica/ Authors: Christelle Vancutsem, Tharcisse Nkunzimana, Eduardo Marinho, Francois Kayitakire, Felix Rembold, Giancarlo Pini, Kaija Korpi- Salmela, Ferdinando Urbano, Hervé Kerdiles, Michele Meroni Contact: Francois Kayitakire, FOODSEC Action Leader European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute of Environment and Sustainability, MARS Unit, FOODSEC Action The mission of the JRC is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies. As a service of the European Commission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the Union. Close to the policymaking process, it serves the common interest of the Member States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national. Legal Notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EU position. EUR 24736, Scientific and Technical Research series ISSN European Union, 212 Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged Photos credits: Eduardo Marinho (p. 2, 4, 5), Grégoire Dubois (p. 3).