A M E R O P A. Fertilizers. presentation for ASBA Cargo Conference in Miami FL. 28 Sept 2017

Transcription

1 A M E R O P A Fertilizers presentation for ASBA Cargo Conference in Miami FL 28 Sept 2017

2 Overview What are Chemical (N P K) Fertilizers? Fertilizer Market Outlook to 2021 (Supply and Demand) Global Fertilizer Trade Conclusion Q & A 2 Ameropa Fertilizers

3 What are Fertilizers? Fertilizers are materials of natural or synthetic origin that are applied to soils to provide nutrients essential to the growth of plants. Nutrients are taken out of the soil by the growing crops and need to be applied regularly. Fertilizers are essential to meet worldwide food demand. 3 main macronutrients: Nitrogen (N): growth and development of the plant Phosphates (P): enhance photosynthesis process and development of plant roots and stems Potash (K): increase plant s resistance to crop disease and tolerance to drought, frost and salinity as well as seed maturation and fruit quality Other secondary macronutrients (Calcium, Magnesium, Sulphur) and micronutrients (Copper, Iron, Zinc, Boron, Manganese, Nickel, etc.) 3 Ameropa Fertilizers

4 What are Fertilizers? Physical forms: solid particles, fluids, and pressurized gas (anhydrous ammonia). Important is that fertilizers can be spread or applied evenly in the field. Packing: in bulk or bags Application: By spreading machines in developed agricultural markets and by hand in lesser developed agricultural markets Season: Main fertilizer season is at the beginning of the spring season in each hemisphere when crops start to grow. Certain crops can also be planted during autumn season of each hemisphere. In some equatorial countries the application season for fertilizers is all year round. Main crops: wheat, corn, rice, fruits and vegetables, oilseeds 4 Ameropa Fertilizers

5 What are Nitrogen Fertilizers? Nitrogen Fertilizers are made from Ammonia. Ammonia (NH3) is produced by the Haber-Bosch process, an energy-intensive process with natural gas (or coal) supplying hydrogen and nitrogen deriving from the air. Main Nitrogen Fertilizer Products: Urea (46% N), Ammonium Nitrate AN (34% N), liquid Urea-Ammonium Nitrate Solution UAN (32% N), Calcium Ammonium Nitrate CAN (27% N), Ammonium Sulphate AS (21% N) Main Origins Middle East China FSU North Africa S.E. Asia Main Destinations India Latin America North America Europe S.E. Asia Urea main Nitrogen fertilizer 5 Ameropa Fertilizers

6 What are Phosphate Fertilizers? Phosphate Fertilizers are obtained by extraction from minerals, mostly referred to as phosphate rock. Main Phosphate Fertilizer Products: Diammonium Phosphate DAP ( ), Monoammonium Phosphate MAP ( or ), Single Superphosphate SSP (18-22% P2O5), Triple Superphosphate TSP (44-48% P2O5), Various NPKs Main Origins China North Africa North America FSU Middle East Main Destinations Latin America India / Pakistan Europe North America Australia Dark DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) 6 Ameropa Fertilizers

7 What are Potash Fertilizers? Potash is a obtained by extraction of potassium minerals from the rock. Main Potash Fertilizer Products: Potassium Chloride MOP (60-62% K2O), Potassium Sulfate SOP (48-52% K2O) Main Origins Russia/Belarus Canada Israel Germany Spain Main Destinations China India Latin America North America Malaysia/Indonesia 7 Ameropa Fertilizers

8 Outlook (Supply): Nitrogen & Urea (N) Capacity in China Massive reduction of ammonia and urea capacity, but capacity in large plant segment still increasing. Ammonia capacity static at 72 Mt NH 3 from 2017 to Mt N S&M CL LRG CL LRG NG LRG OT + 6 Mt -6 Mt Mt urea Large S&M Segment Urea capacity : -6 Mt and +6 Mt = Flat at ar. 74 Mt from 2016 Sources: CICCC, CNFIA, IFA Production and International Trade, June Ameropa Fertilizers

9 Outlook (Supply): Urea (N) Capacity Developments to Mt urea 217 Urea : 55% of N production and 2/3 of ammonia capacity +1.4 Mt in EECA 40 new units, of which 10 in China Mt of China capacity +2.6 Mt in Africa +1.1 Mt in West Asia +4.2 Mt in USA +3.0 Mt in India +3.0 Mt in Nigeria +2.7 Mt in East Asia Other increases (EECA, LA) -1.0 Mt in China But more than 10 Mt of potential capacity in the pipeline after 2021 : India, Nepal, USA, Africa, Russia, Uzbekistan, Malaysia, Iran : + 17 Mt (+8%) 226 Mt in % in NA + EECA + EA + AF + LA Source: IFA Production and International Trade, June Ameropa Fertilizers

10 Outlook (Supply): Phosphates (P) Capacity Developments to 2021 ~25 new granulation units Global PP capacity growing 16% from 96 Mt products in 2016 to 111 Mt in 2021 Mt Products Morocco 9 Mt to 18 Mt Saudi Arabia 3.5 Mt to 6 Mt China 39 Mt to 42 Mt Large planned expansions up to 2021 Source: IFA Production and International Trade, June 2017 Plus a few on-going capacity projects 10 Ameropa Fertilizers

11 Outlook (Supply): Potash (K) Capacity Developments to 2021 Global Potash capacity growing 20% from 54.6 Mt K 2 O in 2016 to 65.5 Mt K 2 O in 2021 Mt MOP eq Total Expansions: 12 Mt K 2 O Net Expansion : 11 Mt K 2 O Mt MOPeq 7.2 Mt MOPeq Reduction in Europe 2/3 of increment in O T 1.1 EECA 7.2 NA 4.0 O T 1.2 EECA 6.0 New producers Turkmenistan 2017 Russia Capacity Mt products in 2021 Source: IFA Production and International Trade, June Ameropa Fertilizers

12 Outlook (Demand): Worldwide close to 200 Mt by 2021/ Mt nutrients Base year 182 Evolution of Global Fertilizer Demand K20 P205 N 31,4 33,3 33,5 34,6 35,4 36,3 37,1 37,8 38,4 42,1 43,2 43,7 44,9 45,3 46,1 46,7 47,4 48,1 104,8 102,9 104,2 106,3 107,3 108,7 109,9 111,1 112,4 Source: IFA Agriculture, May Average Annual Change Base Year 2021/22 N +1.2% p.a. P 2 O % p.a. K 2 O +2.1% p.a. Total +1.5% p.a. 12 Ameropa Fertilizers

13 Outlook (Demand): Lat.Am., Africa and E.Eur.&C.Asia Increasingly Influent Anticipated Regional Volume Expansion by 2021/22 Anticipated Relative Regional Growth by 2021/22 Lat. Am. & Carib. South Asia East Asia Africa E. Eur. & C. Asia North America West Asia Oceania W. & C. Europe N P2O5 K2O Source: IFA Agric ulture, M ay Mt nutrients Africa E. Eur. & C. Asia Lat. Am. & Carib. South Asia West Asia East Asia Oceania North America W. & C. Europe Source: IFA Agriculture, May % 10% 20% 30% 40% 13 Ameropa Fertilizers

14 Outlook (Supply & Demand): Nitrogen Mt N Supply: +1.8% pa Demand: +1.2% pa Potential surplus rising up to 10 Mt N P Acid Mt P 2 O 5 Supply: +2.4% pa Demand: +1.8% pa Potential surplus nearly doubling Potassium Mt K O 2 Supply: +3.8% pa Demand: +2.2% pa Potential surplus more than doubling Sources: IFA Agriculture, IFA Production and International Trade, June Ameropa Fertilizers

15 Global Fertilizer Trade: Regional Nutrient Balances in Million metric tons nutrient, Africa North America 11.4 Latin America 10.4 West Asia South Asia East Asia West/ Central Europe East Europe/ Central Asia Oceania 5.8 N P K Ameropa Fertilizers

16 Global Fertilizer Trade: Flow Map 16 Ameropa Fertilizers

17 Global Fertilizer Trade in Relation to Production in 2016 In Mmt Ammonia Urea AS Nitrates UAN Phosphate Potash Capacity* Production* Trade* Seaborn** Source: * IFA / ** Clarksons Research Aug Ameropa Fertilizers

18 Global Fertilizer Trade: Seaborn (Dry Bulk) In Mmt exp.2017 Growth 16/17 Urea % Phosphates % Potash % Sulphur % Phosphate Rock % Total Fertilizers % For Comparison: Total Minor Bulk trade in 2016: 1,864 Mmt and expected to grow 2% in 2017 to 1,899 Mmt Total Major Bulk trade in 2016: 3,035 Mmt and expected to grow 5% in 2017 to 3,180 Mmt (out of which Grains are 2016: 481 Mmt and expected to grow 6% in 2017 to 510 Mmt) Source: Clarksons Research, Aug-17 Dry Bulk Trade Outlook, Volume 23., No. 8, August Ameropa Fertilizers

19 Conclusion Seaborn Fertilizer Trade jump of 7% (10 Mmt) this year is exceptional Supply driven Fertilizer Market with slower growth (av. 1.5%) towards 2021 Different Global Fertilizer trading pattern emerge due to: - even more capacity coming on stream over next two years - North America still a net importer on N Fertilizers but much less volume - strategic aim of some countries to become self-sufficient (e.g. India) - China may change from an exporter to a net importer on N Fertilizers Traditional Trade Routes for Seaborn Fertilizers are changing 19 Ameropa Fertilizers

20 AMEROPA: an Independent Trading House for Grains, Fertilizers and Chemicals Family owned Group successfully operating since 1948 from Switzerland Main focus on global commodities trading, marketing and delivery - 12 million tons p.a. Fertilizers and Chemicals - 15 million tons p.a. Grains, Oilseeds and Feedstuff Broad market presence (more than 100 locations in 30 countries) Robust auxiliary infrastructure in originating, storage and distribution Equity participations in production + processing to support the Group s trading operations For more information, please visit our website at 20 Ameropa Fertilizers Thank you for your attention!