Nitrogen fertilizers: Supply and Demand

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Nitrogen fertilizers: Supply and Demand Rob Norton, IPNI Regional Director http://anz.

1 Nitrogen fertilizers: Supply and Demand Rob Norton, IPNI Regional Director Be#er Crops, Be#er Environment through Science SSA Adelaide, April 13, 2015.

2 World cereal production and fertilizer consumption, million metric tons Total Cereal Production, Mt 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Cereals Fertilizer NPK Consumpiton, Mt Source: FAO and IFA

3 Organic Nitrogen Sources: Prior to Haber Bosch Process Tankage: Animal by-products Fishmeal: After oil extraction Guano: Dried bird manure

4 Inorganic Nitrogen Sources: Prior to Haber Bosch Process Calcium Cyanamide CaC 2 + N 2 CaCN 2 + C Chilean Nitrate: Mined from Atacama Desert Ammonium Sulfate: React coke by-product NH 3 with acid

Haber-Bosch Process N 2 + 3H 2 2NH 3 Carl Bosch Fritz

realization of a gas reaction under high pressure was

pressures (100 atm) and osmium catalyst make the reaction

5 Haber-Bosch Process N 2 + 3H 2 2NH 3 Carl Bosch Fritz Haber 1904 I supported the opinion that the technical realization of a gas reaction under high pressure was impossible 1908 high temperatures ( o C), high pressures (100 atm) and osmium catalyst make the reaction possible. Now consumes 1% of our energy & feeds >45% of the population

6 Nitrogen Fertilizer: A Simplified Process Natural Gas Carbon Dioxide Air from atmosphere Anhydrous Ammonia Nitric Acid Liquid Ammonium Nitrate Liquid Urea Prill Tower or Granulator UAN Solution Prill Tower or Granulator Ammonia Nitric Acid Ammonium Nitrate UAN Solution Solid Urea Fertilizer & Industrial Industrial Explosives & Fertilizer Fertilizer Fertilizer, Feed, & Industrial

7 Natural Gas is the Major Expense for Ammonia Synthesis 16 Natural Gas Price (US$/MMBTU) Ukraine W. Europe Russia China U.S.A. 0 Coal gasification uses 70% more energy than natural gas as a feedstock IFA, 2011

8 World Ammonia Feedstock and Trends Mt Ammonia Other Coal Gas e 2013e 2014e 2015e IFA, 2011

9 World Ammonia Production: Current & Forecast 5-year forecast 67 new plants (22 in China)

10 Ammonia Goes Into Many Products: Mostly N fertilizers Other NH 3 Global Use of NH 3 NPK Direct ABC DAP MAP AS UAN CAN AN Urea

Urea Production All commercial urea is produced through the reaction of ammonia and carbon dioxide: (1) 2NH 3 + CO 2 ß à NH 2 COONH 4 (at 200 C and 150 bar) (ammonium carbamate) (2) NH 2

11 Urea Production All commercial urea is produced through the reaction of ammonia and carbon dioxide: (1) 2NH 3 + CO 2 ß à NH 2 COONH 4 (at 200 C and 150 bar) (ammonium carbamate) (2) NH 2 COONH 4 ß à CO(NH 2 ) 2 + H 2 O (urea) (urea solution then concentrated to urea melt ) Urea melt dropped from prill tower or granulated in drum 2 CO(NH 2 ) 2 and excess heat à Biuret and NH 3

13 World Urea Production: Current & Forecast Asia Mid East Africa FSU North Amer Latin Amer Europe Oceania e IFA, 2011, Fertecon

14 Australian N fertilizer consumption 1,400 1,200 kt of N 1, Other as MAP as DAP as UAN As AnhAmm As SOA as Urea Urea SoA AnAm UAN DAP MAP Other 92% 19% 0% 88% 59% 71% 1% source: Fertilizers Australia

15 Australian N production capacity CSBP Kwinana ammonia (260 kt) + ammnitrate (780 kt) IPL Gibson Island ammonia (300 kt), ammsul (200 kt), urea (280 kt). IPL Phosphate Hill ammonia for DAP (950 kt) IPL Moronbah ammonia for ammnitrate (330 kt) Orica Kooragan Island ammonia (360 kt) -> AmN+Nitric Acid. Yara Pilbara ammonia (850 kt) Perdaman Collie coal to urea Latrobe Valley Fertilizers coal to urea

16 Use of N Globally & Australia ( ) World % Australia % Wheat Rice Maize Other Cereals Soybean Oilpalm Other Oilseeds Fibre Crops Sugar Crops Roots Fruit/Veg Others Mt 0.98 Mt 24 kg N/ha 80 kg N/ha 60 kg N/ha 80 kg N/ha 80 kg N/ha 72 kg N/ha

17 Use & return on N Globally & Australia World % Australia % PNB PFP Wheat Rice Maize Other Cereals Soybean Oilpalm Other Oilseeds Fibre Crops * Sugar Crops Roots * Fruit/Veg * Others * 105 Mt 0.98 Mt - For Cereals PNB kg N gr/kg N fert PFP kg hr/kg N fert Global

18 N balance intensity by industry ABS Farm Survey Statistics

19 Australia Nitrogen Balances N All Agriculture (Crop + Livestock) Removal/Fer=lizer, N New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia South Australia Tasmania NT Australia

20 UN Post-2015 SDG s

21 Assessing NUE at a global scale Farmer Loses Environment Loses EGY Farmer Wins Environment Loses NUE = 0.5 CHN PAK MYS CHL IND USA BDG IDN VNM AUS PHL THA MEX ZAF IRN TUR BRA CAN Farmer Wins Environment Wins EU2 7 NUE = 0.9 Farmer Loses Soil Loses MAR RUS ARG Farmer Loses Environment Loses NUE = 1.3 NUE for cereals, graphed as the surplus of N (inputs minus outputs) versus removal (output) of N. The dotted lines show values of NUE according to the relation between inputs and outputs. Biological N fixation and manure use are not considered in this example. Each circle represents a country indicated by UN Country 3 letter code.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Plays a Vital Role in Civilization Without the use of N fertilizers, we could not secure enough food for the prevailing diets of

22 Nitrogen Fertilizer Plays a Vital Role in Civilization Without the use of N fertilizers, we could not secure enough food for the prevailing diets of nearly 45% of the world s population, or roughly 3 billion people [Smil, 2011] Smil, V Nitrogen cycle and world food production. World Agriculture 2:9-13.

23 Summary N fertilizers manufactured using the Haber Bosch process are responsible for producing around half the worlds food Urea is the major N product used and this is traded globally, and Australia participates in this trade. Around 70% of N fertilizer use in Australia is in annual grain/fibre production. Rates are low by global standards. Australian agricultural products removed approximately 75% more N in produce than was applied as fertilizer. Grain products remove approximately the same amount of N as is applied as fertilizer N. Ndfa still represents a major N input to our agriculture 70%?.

Assessing strategies for efficient and effective nutrient management

Assessing strategies for efficient and effective nutrient management Robert Norton, Regional Director, International Plant Nutrition Institute, Australia and New Zealand; rnorton@ipni.net http://anz.ipni.net