Drought Monitoring State of the Art: U.S. and Abroad

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1 Drought Monitoring State of the Art: U.S. and Abroad Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln Mali Drought Monitoring Workshop, Bamako, Mali, Sept , 2009

2 OVERVIEW About the NDMC Drought Monitoring Activities Drought Background Monitoring Drought and It s Impacts: The Drought Monitor and other tools NIDIS International Efforts Final Thoughts

3 OVERVIEW About the NDMC Drought Monitoring Activities Drought Background Monitoring Drought and It s Impacts: The Drought Monitor and other tools NIDIS International Efforts Final Thoughts

4 NDMC s Monitoring Program Area Svoboda Monitoring People Brian Fuchs Jae Ryu Jeff Nothwehr Denise Gutzmer

5 NDMC s Monitoring Program Area Svoboda Monitoring Activities USDM NADM DIR NIDIS Drought Atlas International

6 New and Enhanced Tools Enhancement of Drought Impact Reporter v2 (RMA/UNL-CSE) Economic Impacts of Drought (RMA/UNL-CSE) Coming up with better quantification Systematic methodology for states to adapt/follow Drought Plans for Producers (RMA/UNL-CSE) (Underway) VegDRI/VegOUT expansion/development (RMA/UNL-CSE/USGS) Building remote sensing applications Rangeland emphasis over the next 2-3 years Development of new Drought Risk Atlas (RMA/UNL-CSE) (2009) Site specific (climate and hydrology) Frequency, magnitude, trends (precipitation + streamflow) Drought Monitor/Decision Support System (RMA/UNL-CSE)(2010) One-stop shopping Interactive analysis (GIS) Integrates most of the tools above and others

7 NDMC Distribution of SPI Provided to over 60 countries scientists Over 50+ visiting scientists

8 OVERVIEW About the NDMC Drought Monitoring Activities Drought Background Monitoring Drought and It s Impacts: The Drought Monitor and other tools NIDIS International Efforts Final Thoughts

9 Future Challenges in Water Resources Management Transboundary issues Population migration Climate change and variability Reallocation of water supplies Institutional fragmentation Population growth Few water development projects Regional conflicts/war Land degradation Water use and consumption trends

10 21% 28% 30% 20% 66% 40% 20% 31% 23% 26%

11 21% 28% 30% 20% 66% 40% 20% 31% 23% 26%

12 Mitigation Planning Monitoring/Early Warning Supply augmentation Infrastructure improvements Demand reduction Education Communication Coordination Legislation

13 Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Plans Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why? Mitigation and response Pro-active programs and actions to reduce risks Safety net/programs Most drought plans contain only the monitoring and response components.

14 Types of Drought: Meteorological Agricultural Hydrological Socioeconomic

15 OVERVIEW About the NDMC Drought Monitoring Activities Drought Background Monitoring Drought and It s Impacts: The Drought Monitor and other tools NIDIS International Efforts Final Thoughts

16 Why Monitor Drought? Drought is a Normal Part of the Climatic Cycle Drought Impacts are Significant & Widespread Many Economic Sectors Affected Drought is Expensive Since 1980, major droughts and heat waves within the U.S. alone have resulted in costs exceeding 100 billion dollars

17 The Importance of a Drought Monitoring (EW) System allows for early drought detection improves response (proactive) triggers actions within a drought plan a critical mitigation action foundation of a drought plan

18 Components of a Drought Monitoring System timely data and timely acquisition synthesis/analysis of data used to trigger set actions within a plan efficient dissemination network (WWW, media, extension, etc.)

19 Potential Monitoring System Products and Reports Historical analysis (climatology, impacts, magnitude, frequency) Operational assessment (cooperative data, SPI and other indices, automated networks, satellite and soil moisture data, media and official requests) Predictions/Projections (SPI and other indices, soil moisture, streamflow, seasonal forecasts, SST s)

20 Approaches to Drought Assessment Single index or parameter Multiple indices or parameters Composite index

21 Indicators & Triggers Definitions Indicators: Variables to describe drought conditions. Examples: precipitation, streamflows, groundwater, reservoir levels, soil moisture, Palmer indices, Triggers: Specific values of the indicator that initiate and terminate each level of a drought plan, and associated management responses. Example: precipitation below the 5th percentile for two consecutive months Level 4 Drought. (From US State of Georgia Plan)

22 Importance of Drought Indices Simplify complex relationships and provide a good communication tool for diverse audiences Quantitative assessment of anomalous climatic conditions Intensity Duration Spatial extent Historical reference (probability of recurrence) Planning and design applications

23 Considerations in Choosing Indicators / Triggers Proper and Timely Detection of Drought Spatial and Temporal Sensitivity Supplies and Demands Drought In / Drought Out Composite and Multiple Indicators Data Availability, Validity, and Clarity Ease of Implementation (From US State of Georgia Plan)

24 Drought Monitoring State of the Science: Where are we now? Heightened awareness as a result of IPCC AR4 An explosion of good work/tools/products out there over the past 5 years Impediments remain Lack of coordination Lack of trigger ties to any drought plans Resources Lack of data/long-term data Lack of institutional cooperation Lack of drought mitigation plans

25 Drought Monitoring State of the Science: Where are we now? WCC-3,GDPN/GEOSS is a way to learn/leverage from one another Canada/Mexico/United States UN/WMO/others Many regions/countries are working together to better monitor drought Monitoring of impacts globally is virtually nonexistent Early warning/monitoring just one key: THEN WHAT? Need linkages to risk/vulnerability assessment and planning Many indicators don t reflect reality in various regions, or for various season(s) or for both!

26 The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal partners

27 Why a Drought Monitor? Drought Difficult to Quantify and Measure Many Drought Tools; None Universally Applicable Important at the National Level Efforts to improve the planning/policy, preparation and mitigation of drought now include drought monitoring programs at levels from national to regional and local Heighten visibility and awareness of drought as a hazard

29 The Drought Monitor is widely used: Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NOAA DGT/State drought plan triggers ~3.75M page views and ~2M visitors/year Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/internet Media/ Network News/ CNN/NPR/etc. Presidential/Congressional briefings NIDIS portal/portlet A model of interagency/level collaboration

30 Some Examples of Decision Making Using the DM USDA Dried Milk Program USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor s declarations) USDA Livestock Assistance IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses) 2008 Farm Bill NWS Drought Information Statements

31 Key Variables for Monitoring Drought climate data soil moisture stream flow ground water reservoir and lake levels snow pack short, medium, and long range forecasts vegetation health/stress and fire danger impacts

34 droughtreporter.unl.edu

35 What s in the Current DIR? Media 89% Other 1.2% NOAA 1% Gov t 4.6% Public 4.2%

36 OVERVIEW About the NDMC Drought Monitoring Activities Drought Background Monitoring Drought and It s Impacts: The Drought Monitor and other tools NIDIS International Efforts Final Thoughts

The National Integrated Drought Information System

Pulwarty (NOAA-NPO Director) and Jim Verdin (USGS-

37 The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS): What is it? What does it do? Mark Svoboda (NDMC), Climatologist, Monitoring Program Area Leader, NIDIS Implementation Team Roger Pulwarty (NOAA-NPO Director) and Jim Verdin (USGS- Assistant NPO Director) NIDIS Program Office NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, Colorado

38 NIDIS VISION and GOALS A A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought. Public Law (Signed by the President December 2006) (

39 Early Warning System components Monitoring and forecasting Risk assessment: Indicators and triggers Drought risk planning and preparedness Drought Portal Communication and Education

40 Key issues What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management and response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, industry, state, county)? How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for early warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans? (e.g. Exceptional Drought Operation Plan, Interim Operating Plan, Power needs etc?) Proposed NIDIS Pilots: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on drought, climate and water resources

41 NIDIS Objectives Creating a drought early warning information system Coordinating national drought monitoring and forecasting system Providing an interactive drought information clearinghouse and delivery system for products and services including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc) Designing mechanisms for improving information to support coordinated preparedness and planning

42 Current U.S. Drought Portal //drought.gov

National Climate Service: Information services in support of adaptation RESEARCH RISAs, universities, and labs Regional Oversight and Evaluation OTHER NON-NOAA PARTNERS & DEVELOPMENT & PROTOTYPING &

43 National Climate Service: Information services in support of adaptation RESEARCH RISAs, universities, and labs Regional Oversight and Evaluation OTHER NON-NOAA PARTNERS & DEVELOPMENT & PROTOTYPING & SERVICES Integrating knowledge and products (CDC, ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs) Operational (RCCs, NCDC, CPC, WFOs, SCs, other private sector) new or enhanced regional products information delivery technology sustained & systematic communication and feedback

44 OVERVIEW About the NDMC Drought Monitoring Activities Drought Background Monitoring Drought and It s Impacts: The Drought Monitor and other tools NIDIS International Efforts Final Thoughts

45 Global Drought Preparedness Network Individually, many nations will be unable to improve their drought coping capacity. Collectively, through global, regional, and national partnerships, we can share information and experiences to reduce the impacts of drought.

46 ..the rapid onset of National Drought Centers/Strategies Australia South Africa Canada United States Slovenia/Southeast Europe Spain EU/JRC Portugal South Korea China Iran Pakistan Morocco Syria Brazil (Sao Paulo state) Jordan

50 European Drought Observatory Internet Portal National Drought Mitigation Center, Univ. Nebraska, Lincoln, October 27, now on-line!

5 1-month Probabilistic Forecast of SPI-3 January 2007 Observed SPI

51 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI National Drought Mitigation Center, Univ. Nebraska, Lincoln, October 27, Forecasted Probability for SPI < month Probabilistic Forecast of SPI-3 January 2007 Observed SPI Probability that SPI-3 for the next month is severely dry or worse still experimental!

52 Drought Monitoring Centre for Southeast Europe (DMCSEE), Slovenia

55 Beijing Climate Center

56 Beijing Climate Center

58 Potential Regional Networks Eastern and Central European Network North American Network Mediterranean Network West Asia Network Asian Network South American Network Sub-Saharan African Network

WCC3 Executive Summary concluded: that present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of meeting present, and future needs and benefits, particularly in developing

59 WCC3 Executive Summary concluded: that present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of meeting present, and future needs and benefits, particularly in developing countries; that the most urgent need is for much closer partnerships between the providers and users of climate services; that great scientific progress has been made especially by the World Climate Programme and its associated activities over the past 30 years, which provides already a firm basis for the delivery of a wide range of climate services; and that major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the time-range and skill of climate prediction through new research and modelling initiatives; and to improve the observational basis for climate prediction and services, and the availability and quality control of climate data;

60 called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services: The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data; The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives. Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities; Climate user interface mechanisms focused on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services; and Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and strengthened outreach and communication. supported the development of the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services.

As with the Internet, GEOSS will be a global and flexible

61 What is GEOSS?: The Global Earth Observation System of Systems The Global Earth Observation System of Systems will provide decision-support tools to a wide variety of users. As with the Internet, GEOSS will be a global and flexible network of content providers allowing decision makers to access an extraordinary range of information at their desk.

62 OVERVIEW About the NDMC Drought Monitoring Activities Drought Background Monitoring Drought and It s Impacts: The Drought Monitor and other tools NIDIS International Efforts Final Thoughts

63 Critical Observations: 1) No single parameter is used solely in determining appropriate actions 2) Instead, different thresholds from different combinations of inputs is the best way to approach monitoring and triggers 3) Decision making (or triggers ) based on quantitative values are supported favorably and are better understood

64 Future Drought Monitoring Challenges The Big Four: Impact collection/quantification Soil moisture (especially in situ) Hydrology (surface and groundwater) Ecological/Environmental (D-x E?) If a drought occurs in the desert, does anybody see it?

65 NDMC s Future Opportunities/Challenges Climate change Public health issues Transboundary issues Food security and water Global Water Institute/Water for Food Risk management Mitigation applications Planning activities Improved monitoring and prediction Decision support National Integrated Drought Information System Global Integrated Drought Information System Global Drought Services (GFCS)

67 Thank You Any Any Questions?? Please contact me at: Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center

Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems

World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems Robert Stefanski Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division Climate and Water