PRICE WATCH December 2013 Prices January 31, 2014

Transcription

1 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 PRICE WATCH December 2013 Prices January 31, 2014 KEY MESSAGES In West Africa, market supplies improved throughout the region in December with the availability of local harvests. Production shortfalls in eastern Niger and northern Chad resulted in atypical price increases. Households in the region s main cereal producing areas earned above-average cash crop incomes earlier in the year, leading to below-average grain marketing. Rice imports from international markets contributed food availability in coastal countries (Pages 3-5). In East Africa, sorghum prices increased atypically in parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and northern Uganda. Maize prices decreased in Kenya and southern Uganda with recent harvests, but increased in Somalia with the peak of the secondary November-to-January lean season. The effects of localized conflict, the devaluation of local currencies, and high levels of inflation reinforced upward price trends in some areas (Pages 5-8). In Southern Africa, maize prices were stable or increased as the lean season peaked. Prices remained above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels due to tight regional supplies, as well as strong export and institutional demand. Maize grain and meal prices continued to increase atypically in Zambia and Malawi. Rice, cassava, and beans reinforced food availability throughout the region (Pages 8-10). In Haiti, local black bean and maize prices were stable or decreased due to adequate food availability country-wide. In Central America, beans prices decreased in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala due to the availability of stocks from Postrera production in Maize prices were stable or decreased due to an average Primera harvest. Local and imported rice prices remained stable throughout the region (Pages 11-12). In Afghanistan and Tajikistan, wheat flour prices were stable in December due to ongoing above-average harvests and the availability of lowerpriced imports from Kazakhstan (Page 12-13). International rice prices remained stable or decreased in December Maize prices were stable as global stocks replenished. Wheat prices were stable after varying considerably earlier in the year due to concerns over production in the Black Sea states. Crude oil prices were stable (Pages 2-3). Figure 1. FEWS NET regional price indices and FAO Food Price Index, January 2009 December East Africa Southern Africa West Africa (Sahel) Central America Central Asia FAO Food Price index Sources: FAO and FEWS NET. (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on trends in selected reference markets. Trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Program (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 PRICE WATCH January 2014 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS situation Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international markets, January Rice prices on international reference 2009 December 2013 markets continued to decline or remained stable between November and December Global rice production estimates for 2012/13 and 2013/14 are expected to surpass the record 2011/12 harvests; the global stocks-to-use ratio is currently at the highest level in a decade (InterRice). Rice exports from India, the world s largest rice importer for the third year in a row, reached record high levels in 2013, following the removal of the export ban on non-basmati rice in USD/MT 2011 (Foreign Agricultural Service, No. 2 U.S. Yellow. Maize Grade 1 Wheat, Rouen, France No. 2 U.S. Hard Red Wheat A1 Super Broken Rice, Bangkok, Thailand FAS). Thai rice export prices declined 5% broken rice, Hanoi, Vietnam considerably over 2013 due to large carry-over stocks as well as the Sources: FAO and World Bank. depreciation of the Thai Baht vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. Nearly one third of global rice exports were destined for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 (InterRice). Monthly average maize prices on international reference markets were stable November and December, but were over 30 percent lower than their respective December 2012 levels. Global maize stocks are projected to rise to their highest levels in over a decade due to near-record harvests in the United States, ample stocks in South America, and a decrease in overall consumption estimates (International Grains Council, IGC). Wheat export prices were stable between November and December after considerable variation earlier in the year due to uncertainty over production in key exporting countries. Global 2013/14 wheat production is projected to reach record levels and total end-season stocks are expected to increase in 2013/14 compared to their respective 2012/13 levels (United States Department of Agriculture, USDA). Wheat prices remain below their respective 2012 levels. World soybean and palm oil production levels are expected to reach record-high levels in 2013/14 (FAS). Soybean and soybean oil prices decreased between November and December due to improved production prospects in key exporting countries; prices are below their respective 2012 levels. International crude oil prices were stable between November and December (World Bank). However, fuel prices continued to increase in some importing countries due to the depreciation of the local currency vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and changing local fuel price policies. Outlook International rice prices are expected to decline further in 2014 as global production and carry-over stocks reach record or near-record levels. Global rice trade is expected to remain stable in 2014 due to reduced import demand from countries in Sub Saharan Africa and Asia, where local production was particularly good in 2012/13 (InterRice). Otherwise, strong demand and high rice prices in China are likely to contribute to steady exports from Southeast Asia and may put some upward pressure on export prices. harvest prospects suggest that maize prices will be stable in The evolution of international maize prices in the coming months will depend on how markets respond to new information about the 2013/14 Southern Hemisphere growing season. International wheat prices may decline as global feed demand shifts towards cheaper maize. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 XOF/kg XOF/kg NGN/100 kg PRICE WATCH January 2014 Global soybean, soybean oil, and palm oil prices will continue decreasing through India, the world s largest palm oil importer, recently enacted a tariff that could limit their imports and further reinforce declining global prices. International crude oil prices are expected to decline slightly due to expanded output in non-traditional exporting countries (World Bank). Staple food price trends across the FEWS NET countries will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 1). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies. Situation WEST AFRICA West Africa: Staple food markets were generally well-supplied with recent local harvests in December. Grain harvests were average across most coastal and Sahelian countries in Trade between the region s structurally-surplus and deficit areas is taking place as it normally would during the post-harvest period. Institutional purchases by governments and humanitarian organizations were not yet underway in most countries. Staple food prices were generally stable or decreasing in December, with slight increases in areas where end of year demand was particularly strong or where early harvests were still underway. Maize supply outpaced demand in December in the region s major production and collection areas, which helped to exert downward pressure on prices along the marketing chain. Prices increased in some areas due to strong seasonal demand for maize as poultry feed in the lead up to end of year holidays and for beer production. Maize prices in the central basin are at or below their respective five-year average levels, while maize prices elsewhere in the region are generally higher. Millet prices were generally above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels due to reduced regional production (16 percent lower than average) and persistent household demand. Sorghum prices declined in the region s surplus producing areas in December. Cash crop (cowpeas in particular) marketing continued in December with recent harvests. Subsequent years of good cowpea production conditions coupled with improved storage techniques have contributed to above-average cowpea market supplies, leading households to focus more on cash crop marketing rather than cereals sales. Cowpea demand, particularly from coastal countries, remains strong. Livestock prices remained well above their respective fiveyear average levels in December due to good pasture conditions during the 2013 rainy season and resulting good livestock body conditions and strong demand from coastal countries. Terms of trade remain favorable for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. Eastern basin (Benin, Nigeria, Niger, and Chad): Maize, millet, sorghum, cowpea, yam, and sweet potato harvests improved Figure 3. Price trends in selected markets in West Africa Note: the figures follow the marketing year in each country. Sources: FEWS NET and ONASA-Benin. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2, Millet: Nominal wholesale prices in Kano, Nigeria OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 White Maize: Nominal retail prices in Bobo Dioulasso (Nieneta), Burkina Faso OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 Maize: Nominal assembly prices in Diffa, Niger OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 5-year average 2008/ / / /14

4 PRICE WATCH January 2014 staple food market supplies in December. The availability of maize and sorghum on markets was average and prices were stable in December while the availability of millet on markets was below-average and prices on reference markets increased in December (Figure 3). Trade flows were supported by a decrease Boko Haram-related insecurity. Nigeria: Maize, sorghum, and millet harvests continued in December, allowing households and traders to rebuild their stocks. Remaining stocks from the 2012/13 marketing year were below-average because of the effects of last year s flooding and conflict-related market disruptions and actors along the marketing chain were rebuilding their stocks in December during the post-harvest period. Maize prices were nevertheless decreasing on most markets due to aboveaverage production and reduced demand on markets from regional buyers and domestic poultry farmers. Millet prices increased slightly by six percent in Kano in December due to a one to two month delay in harvests during the 2013/14 season. Traders have been hesitant to sell their stocks because of the very high prices they paid over the 2012/13 marketing year. Prices were generally above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels. Benin: Maize market supplies continued to improve in December during the post harvest period. Staple food prices remained generally stable after declining sharply with the start of the harvest season in October. Niger: Cereals supplies were largely assured through ongoing local harvests and imports from regional markets. Production was average at a national level, but below-average in the eastern parts of the country. Trade flows (domestic and cross-border) between surplus and deficit areas evolved normally in December. Atypical price increases occurred in Diffa and Zinder, where maize prices increased by 23 and 12 percent, respectively, between November and December. Millet prices likewise increased atypically during the harvest period in Abalak, Diffa, Agadez, and Nguigmi due to atypicallystrong pastoral demand. Millet prices increased in Bakin Birdji as households and traders from other parts of the country purchased grain to rebuild their stockholdings that were depleted in 2012/13. Staple food prices remain above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels. Chad: Staple food markets are well supplied with recent harvests in the Soudanian zones of the country, where harvests were average. Millet prices decreased by up to 27 percent in Sarh. Market supplies in the Sahelian zones were negatively affected by below average harvests in Sorghum prices increased by up to 10 percent in Abeche. Livestock prices increased in December due to strong seasonal demand and were above their respective five-year average levels. Central (Mali and Burkina Faso) and Western (Senegal and Mauritania) Basins: Markets were well-supplied with grain from domestic and cross-border trade flows in December. Burkina Faso: Staple food markets were generally well-supplied in December with harvests and carryover stocks from the average to above-average 2012 growing season. Market demand from households was seasonally weak in December; Institutional purchases that normally take place in the post-harvest period had not yet started in December. Humanitarian interventions underway in the country s deficit and more isolated northern and central areas continued to facilitate local food access for poor households, including refugee populations from Mali. Staple food prices were stable between November and December and remained well-below their respective December 2012 levels in many places. Mali: Millet and sorghum market supplies were weak in December due to a slight delay in post-harvest handling activities (threshing). In addition, many households obtained important incomes through cash crop (cowpea in particular) sales, thereby reducing the need to sell cereals during the post-harvest period. Market demand in the country s northern regions increased in December as humanitarian organizations are favoring cash-based interventions, thereby increasing beneficiary purchasing power. Staple food prices nevertheless declined on most markets in December; prices are wellbelow their respective 2012 and five-year average levels. Mauritania: Staple food availability was adequate in December. Imports from Senegal and Mali flowed into the southern parts of the country, despite the ongoing presence of trade restrictions. This reinforced internal trade flows as well. Sorghum prices were stable or declined throughout most of the country. Senegal: Market supplies improved in October as traders in the country s major production zones sold off their remaining stocks and as new harvests arrived onto markets. Staple food prices were generally stable or decreased slightly between November and December. Prices nevertheless increased slightly in December in parts of Senegal that were affected by a shortened rainy season. The availability of recent harvests and continuous rice imports from international markets maintained market supply and stock levels throughout the country. Senegal is currently on track to import record volumes of rice from international markets in 2013/14 (USDA Rice Outlook). Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 PRICE WATCH January 2014 Outlook Food availability on the region s reference markets will remain stable between January and March, and then decline progressively over the remainder of the November to October marketing year. In places that experienced late harvests due to flooding or a late start of season, marketing and price behavior may be atypical in the coming months. Trade flows are expected to evolve as they normally do, with the exception of conflict-affected areas such as northeastern Nigeria and southeastern Niger, southern Chad and the Central African Republic, and northern Mali and Algeria. In those conflictaffected areas, trade flows are likely to be disrupted, resulting in atypically high prices. Atypically low market supplies in Chad are likely to result in above-average imports from regional and international markets to meet their food needs. Livestock prices are expected to decline in January and February, but remain above average due to good body and grazing conditions and strong demand from higher income coastal countries. Terms of trade will remain favorable for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. Localized forage deficits across the Sahel could lead to an early deterioration of livestock body conditions starting in March, resulting in early herd movements, and declining prices from April onward. EAST AFRICA Regular FEWS NET South Sudan monthly reporting has been suspended due to the current crisis. FEWS NET will continue monitoring the food security situation and post periodic updates while the crisis is ongoing. : Sorghum, millet, and wheat prices continued to increase atypically between November and December 2013 across many parts of Sudan due to below-average November-to-January harvests. These price increases were exacerbated by the effects of high production and marketing costs as well as the declining value of the local currency. Sorghum prices likewise increased atypically in South Sudan, which depends on supplies from neighboring countries (including Sudan), where conflict has gravely affected staple food availability and market access. Sorghum prices declined typically across most markets in Ethiopia and southern Somalia with the start of ongoing above-averages harvests. Maize prices in Rwanda remained typically stable between November and December due to imminent start of January to February harvest; maize prices declined typically across markets in Kenya and Uganda due to increased supply from ongoing harvests. Maize prices increased seasonally in southern Somalia at the peak of the secondary November-to-January lean season, and were accentuated by expected below-average January-to-February (Deyr) harvests. Wholesale maize prices remained atypically stable or increased marginally across most markets in Tanzania following above-average July-to- August. Food availability and prices were stable in Djibouti. Sudan: Sorghum and millet harvests in Sudan were well below-average during the 2013/14 production year. Sudan typically produces more sorghum than it consumes and exports the rest to neighboring countries throughout the region. Low local production has resulted in increasing prices as households and traders hold on to their stocks in anticipation of higher prices later in the year. Although these atypical price trends are largely attributed to below-average harvests, this year s high sorghum prices were also affected by high production and marketing costs, and supported by macroeconomic factors like high inflation and the depreciation of the local currency. Sorghum prices continued to increase atypically between November and December 2013 by nine to 19 percent across most reference markets at a time when they typically decline during the post-harvest period. Sorghum prices were, on average, 30 percent higher than their respective December 2012 levels and double the five-year average (Figure 4). Millet prices increased atypically by 14 to 23 percent due to below-average harvests in the main producing areas of Darfur, North Kordofan, El Gadarif, as well as neighboring regions of Chad. Large traders in western Sudan started sourcing millet supplies earlier than normal from the distant eastern market of Gadarif. On average, millet prices were 38 percent higher than their respective December 2012 levels, and 95 percent higher than their respective five-year average levels. December 2013 wheat prices were, on average, 45 percent above their respective December 2012 levels and double their five-year average levels. Wheat prices are determined by local production patterns, international prices, the local exchange rate, as well as government wheat and bread marketing policies. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 UGX/kg KES/90 kg SDG/90 kg PRICE WATCH January 2014 South Sudan: The fighting that broke out in mid-december 2013 occurred midway through the November-to-January long-cycle sorghum harvests. This interruption affected household-level food availability, as they would normally rely on their own production at this time. The conflict has likewise affected trade flows from neighboring countries (which South Sudan depends on to meet its staple food needs) and normal market functioning. Weekly marketplaces and trader storage facilities were destroyed in the areas where fighting has been most intense. Food availability through local production, trader storage, and inflows from neighboring counties have been compromised. Figure 4. Price trends in selected markets in East Africa Sorghum: Nominal Retail Prices in Gadarif, Sudan NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT 5 year average 2008/ / / /14 Ethiopia: Grain prices declined seasonally across most reference markets between November and December due to improved market supply from the above-average October-to -January (Meher) harvest, which contributes to 90 percent of domestic supply. Sorghum prices declined by eight to 16 percent in Bedeno (East Hararghe), Oromia, Turmi (SNNPR), and Shoa Robit (Amhara) while maize prices declined by 22 to 30 percent in Adwa (Tigray), Abomsa (Oromia), Karati (SNNPR), and Babile (Oromia). Small ruminant prices declined by 10 to 14 percent in the southeastern pastoral markets of Kabridahar and Warder in Somali Region. Livestock prices increased by eight percent in Gode due to localized pastoral and agro-pastoral livestock restocking as IDPs in Sekosh and Jijiga returned home. Somalia: Red sorghum prices in Baidoa, in the mainproducing Bay region, declined marginally with the start of the below-average 2013/14 Deyr harvest, which mostly occurs in January. White sorghum prices remained stable but were 13 percent above their respective December 2012 levels in the northern retail market of Hergesia due to delayed and below-average local harvest and limited cross-border trade. October to December 2013 informal sorghum exports from eastern Ethiopia to northern and central Somalia declined by 22 when compared to the same period in This is in part due to recent attempts to formalize trade between the two countries. Retail maize prices increased by 12 percent in Qoryoley in the main-producing Lower Shebelle region. The increase in prices was attributed to usual depletion of stocks, but were accentuated by the expected below-average January to February (Deyr) harvest as households shifted to higher Note: the figures follow the marketing year in each country. Sources: FAMIS, Tanzania Ministry of Industry Trade and Marketing, WFP, MIS/Farmgain Africa Ltd and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBoS). valued sesame production. Both maize and sorghum prices were on average 20 percent higher than their respective December 2012 levels but below their respective five-year average levels. Kenya: Wholesale maize prices declined seasonally between November and December by up to 11 percent in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Eldoret. Retail maize prices declined marginally in the pastoral markets of Turkana and Mandera in northern Kenya due to continuous availability of maize from the long rains harvests. Maize prices remained seasonably stable in the southeastern and coastal markets of Kitui and Mombasa and were partly stabilized by imports from Tanzania. October to December 2013 maize imports from Tanzania into these regions were double their respective 2012 levels over the same period, while 2012 rice imports tripled. Prices in these markets were 27 to 33 percent higher than respective five-year average levels due to successive below-average harvests. Beans and sorghum prices followed similar trends. Livestock 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Maize: Nominal wholesale prices in Nairobi, Kenya JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 5-year average White Maize: Nominal retail prices in Masindi, Uganda JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 5-year average Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 PRICE WATCH January 2014 prices increased typically by up to 24 percent between November and December 2013 in the pastoral markets of Mandera, Garissa, and Turkana County due to improved livestock body conditions and high demand during the December holidays. Rwanda: Mixed bean prices declined typically between November and December by an average of 18 percent ahead of the January-to-February harvest. Prices increased atypically earlier in the year as traders and households responded to poor rainfall performance, for a second season in a row, which adversely affected yields (20 percent below average) and local bean availability. Irish potato prices declined by 20 percent over the same period. Maize prices remained stable across most markets due to imminent start of the December-to-January season A harvest. Local cassava flour prices remained stable in most markets due to the regular and constant availability. Uganda: Sorghum prices increased by seven to 22 percent between November and December in the northern markets of Lira, Gulu, and Soroti which supply Karamoja areas as well as markets in neighboring South Sudan. Sorghum prices typically decline in December through February following harvests. Atypical price trends in late 2013 are attributed to tight supplies as stocks from the ongoing average harvest had not yet reached these retail and export markets as well as increased demand from South Sudanese refugees. Sorghum exports from Uganda to South Sudan declined during the second half of 2013 due to below-average June-to-July harvest in Uganda and improved local availability in South Sudan. Wholesale dry bean and maize prices declined due to increased market supply from ongoing harvests. Tanzania: Wholesale maize prices remained atypically stable across most reference markets between November and December due to above-average harvest (especially in the southern highlands), and abundant availability of substitutes including sorghum, potatoes, tubers, and imported rice. Bean prices increased gradually by up to 10 percent over the same period. Wholesale beans, rice, and maize prices declined by 13, 10, and seven percent in the western market of Kigoma due to the improved availability of market supplies in Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that typically import from western Tanzania. October to December 2013 informal bean and rice exports to these countries declined by 70 and 30 percent when compared the previous July to September 2013 quarter. Djibouti: Rice, wheat and sorghum flour price remained stable between November and December across Djibouti. Outlook Sudan: Sorghum and millet prices will likely increase atypically between January and March due to tight supplies as a result of below-average production. The high prices will be reinforced by high marketing costs attributed to high inflation and a depreciating local currency. Household grain stocks are expected to diminish earlier than usual in February/March rather than May/June resulting in high market demand and concomitant steep rise in prices in the third quarter of South Sudan: Staple food availability and access are expected to continue to decline in the coming months. Insecurity in most parts of the country will continue to impede both local and cross-border trade flows. As a result, most markets will continue to be disrupted (particularly those in isolated areas), resulting in limited market supplies and high prices. Uganda: Grains, beans, and tubers prices are expected to decline seasonally in January as a result of increased supply from the ongoing December-to-January harvest and then start increasing gradually in February. The conflict in South Sudan will reduce exports from Uganda into South Sudan. However, the presence of an unprecedented number of refugees (over 50,000) in border areas may result in increased demand for staple foods and other consumer items on markets, either through direct purchases by refugees or as humanitarian organizations source food assistance (maize and beans in particular) locally in Uganda. Somalia: Both sorghum and maize prices are expected to decline seasonally during the January through February harvests. However, the decline in prices will be mitigated by anticipated below-average harvests; prices will likely increase earlier than usual as household and traders stocks diminish ahead of the April-to-June main agricultural lean season. Imported commodity prices (including rice) likely increase seasonally between May and August due to limited shipping services during the monsoon season. Ethiopia: Staple grain prices are expected to typically trend downwards between January and March with increasing market supply from the ongoing October-to-January harvest. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 PRICE WATCH January 2014 Kenya: Maize prices are expected to decline seasonally between January and March in most urban markets, and remain stable across most pastoral markets due to increasing inflow of maize from the long rains harvest. However the decline in prices will likely be moderated and shortened by below average July to January (long rains) and February to March (short rains) harvest. Wholesale maize prices are expected to begin increasing in February in the main source markets (including Eldoret) due to increased demand from deficit areas of the country. Rwanda: Staple food prices are expected to decline between January and March with the start of the January to February Season A harvest. However the decline in prices will likely be mitigated by below-average production due to poor rainfall performance and the effects of localized storm-related damage to cooking banana plantations. Tanzania: Staple food prices are expected to remain atypically stable or increase gradually across most markets in Tanzania between January and March due to availability of surplus food stocks. Increased demand in Kenya following below-average harvests will likely exert upward pressure on maize and rice prices in the northern and lake region collection markets of Arusha and Mwanza. Djibouti: Rice, wheat, and sorghum flour availability and prices are expected to remain stable. situation SOUTHERN AFRICA Southern Africa: Staple food prices were stable on increasing throughout Southern Africa as the peak of the November-to -March lean season set in. The effects of already tight regional supplies were reinforced by the effects of localized poor harvests, high seasonal demand, and relatively high and increasing) fuel cost in most countries. Maize reference markets in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe recorded 15 to 20 percent price increases between November and December of Similarly, maize spot prices on the South Africa Futures Exchange (SAFEX) continued rising in response to persistent drought conditions in the productive North West province. Maize prices remained stable but above their respective December 2012 levels in Mozambique and Tanzania due to above- average local harvests in 2013 and the availability of rice imports international markets. Institutional maize demand was strong in Zambia, as it has been in recent years, but relatively weak elsewhere in the region due to government financing constraints. Rice price and availability remained stable, reflecting below-average global rice prices. Malawi: Markets were reasonably well supplied in December due to the availability of trader stocks (including imports from regional markets), and ADMARC sales as the lean season progressed. Prices are nevertheless well-above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels due to the effects of localized production shortfalls in 2012 and 2013, combined with the persistent effects of the devaluation of the local currency in December 2013 maize prices were, on average, 77% above December 2012 levels and 159% above the five-year average. Maize prices increased most rapidly in the central region of the country between November and December 2013 (12%) due to dwindling maize stocks and increased demand from buyers from the south. Average maize prices in Southern Malawi markets increased by 8% between November and December Markets in Northern Malawi were stable between November and December due to the availability of informal imports from Zambia. Maize stockholdings by private traders are believed to be good. Traders have been hesitant to sell off stocks due to the very high purchase prices they paid in 2013 as well as uncertainty about the impacts of subsidized maize sales. By end of January, ADMARC was delivering maize in most of its markets at the rate of an average of 15 MTs per market per week. At this rate, ADMARC has sufficient supplies to last through mid-march. The ADMARC maize sale price is MWK 80/kg, nearly half of the retail prices in most places (MWK 160/kg). Informal maize imports from Zambia into central and northern Malawi were 73 percent higher than the five-year average during the 2013/14 marketing year (April through December). Informal imports nevertheless declined as they normally do between November and December 2013 stocks dwindle in key source markets during the lean period and also due to worsening road conditions. Informal exports increased through southern Malawi into Mozambique in December as a result of increased demand and higher prices in Mozambique. Cumulative informal cross border maize exports (April through December) were 75 percent below the five-year average. Rice, cassava, and bean prices were stable or decreased slightly between November and December. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 8

9 MWK/kg MWK/kg ZAR/MT PRICE WATCH January 2014 Mozambique: Staple food trade patterns remained normal, with prices remaining stable or increasing toward their normal peak levels, expected in February. Maize prices decreased slightly, by five percent in Chokwe, after increasing sharply in November, due to above normal maize availability from the post flooding and second season production. Maize prices remained stable in Nampula as high local maize prices attracted grain flows from traders originating in other parts of the country; prices were 21 percent above their respective December 2012 levels and 44 percent above the five-year average due to the effects of subsequent years of low local maize production in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013. Bean prices increased seasonally on most markets in December, with the exception of Gorongosa, Chockwe, and Tete where trader stocks remain available and market supplies have remained constant as the lean season progresses Rice prices were stable due to adequate and stable rice availability from international markets. Zambia: Maize prices increased or remained stable between November and December. Staple food prices remained above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels due to reduced national production, increased marketing cost due to high fuel prices, and regional demand from neighboring countries (especially Zimbabwe and Malawi). Commercial maize export estimates in 2013 from Zambia into Malawi are estimated at 5,000 MT out of the initial request of 35,000 MT while only 12,141 MT was exported to Zimbabwe, out of the the originally anticipated 150,000 MT due to government financing constraints. Informal cross border trade flows between Zambia and northern and central Malawi in 2013 were nevertheless well-above their respective 2012 levels. Maize meal prices have remained at record-high levels when compared to their respective five-year average levels due to high maize grain prices, as well as increased household and private sector demand. In additional, the FRA has allocated 47,000 MT of maize grain to sell at the prevailing market rate. This is unlike previous years when maize meal was sold below market prices, thereby maintaining lower market prices.. Figure 5. Price trends in selected markets in Southern Africa Note: the figures follow the marketing year in each country. Sources: Malawi Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development (MITM), Zambia Central Statistics Office, and SAFEX. Tanzania: Markets were adequately supplied with maize, beans, rice, and bananas in December. Wholesale maize prices began increasing slightly in December after remaining atypically stable in October and November due to the availability of aboveaverage market supplies. Staple food prices declined in Kigoma, a major source market for neighboring Burundi and Rwanda, due to above average local harvests and market supplies toward the end of 2013, resulting in decreased import demand from Tanzania. Rice availability and price remained stable in December due the availability of duty free rice imports from steady international markets and above-average domestic supply. December wholesale rice prices were eight to 21 percent below their respective five-year average levels in the countries surplus price producing areas. Zimbabwe: Maize grain is available in most markets across the country; prices remained stable in December even though households began making their market purchases earlier than usual in The price stability is due to stable maize meal and grain from neighboring countries, as well as stable fuel prices. Although the government had planned to 150,000 MT of maize from Zambia and then South Africa, only small quantities have been procured, as of December. Maize grain prices Famine Early Warning Systems Network 9 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, White Maize: Prices on the SAFEX market (South Africa) 0 APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 Maize: Nominal retail prices in Lunzu, Malawai APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 Maize: Nominal retail prices in Lunzu, Malawai APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 5-year average 2008/ / / /14

10 PRICE WATCH January 2014 increased by 15 percent in Harare and Bulawayo due to strong market demand as the lean season progressed. Prices there are 59 and 34 percent higher than their respective December 2012 levels. Maize grain remained unavailable in Gwanda, due to the ample availability of relatively less expensive South African maize meal. Maize meal prices were generally stable, though higher than their respective December 2012 levels due to high maize prices and strong dependence on imports from regional markets where maize grain and meal prices are relatively higher than their respective 2012 levels. South Africa: Maize SAFEX spot prices increased by 15 percent between November and December as traders responded to the effects of ongoing drought in the North West province; South Africa s second most productive maize growing province. SAFEX maize price levels have a bearing on regional food access and will continue to be influenced by global maize price trends, the sustained depreciation of the Rand, and the speculative behavior of grain exporters as they source for more lucrative markets further afield. Outlook Southern Africa: Maize and maize meal prices are expected to peak in February/ March in the region. Prices will remain well-above their respective 2012 and five-year average. Tradable supplies are projected to be tighter in the coming months due to localized production shortfalls and lower carry-over stocks. Cumulative exports from Southern Africa higher than last year. At the end of December, about 1.69 million MT of white and yellow maize had been exported, compared with.14 million MT last season. Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) countries remained the destination of up to 33 percent of imports by the end of December. Preliminary agro climatology forecasts indicate and increased chance of normal to above normal rains in the bulk of the region during the December to February period, but increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the region. Malawi: Prices are expected to rise atypically in the next months. With the Kwacha, expected to depreciate to low levels, observed in April 2013 of about MK 413/USD, seasonal reductions in market and household stocks and current aid withdrawal, inflation is likely to increase leading to high fuel and transportation cost and steep increases in maize prices. Mozambique: Staple food prices will continue to follow their seasonal trend and peak in January/February. Maize prices will follow normal trend, including in Nampula where prices will be stable, with small increases of less 10 percent relative to previous months b ut much higher when compared to the five-year average. Similarly, bean prices will also follow seasonal patterns, with slight fluctuations caused by temporary unexpected changes in the supply levels. Rice prices are expected to remain stable throughout the consumption year due to increased availability from local production and international import supplies. Zambia: Maize and maize meal prices are expected to increase seasonably, peaking in February. Prices will remain significantly above their respective 2012 and five-year average. Most of the maize is now in the hands of FRA and traders, ensuring adequate stocks for the remaining marketing year. While the maize export ban will remain in force, the private sector will continue to supply markets and government will continue community sales and relief distribution to about 209,498 people in 18 districts. Tanzania: Anticipated poor Vuli season and normally diminishing market supplies will push prices upward in the coming months. Rice prices are expected to rise slightly, but remain below 2013 levels due to availability of imports from the international markets and sales by farmers in need of cash to finance the upcoming agricultural season. Zimbabwe: Staple food prices are likely to continue increasing countrywide in the coming months although government procurement of relatively less-expensive South African grain, low international fuel prices, and commercial cereal imports these effects. South Africa: Spot market prices on the SAFEX are influenced by both local and international market trends. While the global outlook suggests that maize prices will remain stable over the coming months, production prospects in South Africa s main production zones are still question. While local conditions will have a more significant impact, sustained decreases in international prices could temper price spikes on SAFEX especially as the lean season begins to peak between January and March. Spot maize prices will therefore respond to new information about the South African growing season. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 10

11 NIO/lb NIO/lb HTG/6 lbs PRICE WATCH January 2014 CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Central America and Haiti: Food availability was good and prices in the region were stable or decreased between November and December. In Haiti, local black bean and maize as well as imported wheat prices were stable countrywide. In El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala bean prices decreased due to ample availability from the Postrera harvests on markets. In Nicaragua, red bean prices increased as the Apante harvest had not yet reached markets. Maize prices remain stable or decreased throughout Central America following an average Primera harvest. Imported rice prices remained stable compared their respective 2012 levels throughout Central America and Haiti. Haiti: Locally-produced beans, maize, and maize flour prices were stable or decreased between November and December in the country s main production areas following recent harvest. The availability of recent pigeon pea and sorghum harvests further reinforced staple food market availability and contributed to the observed price trends. The prices of imported wheat and rice remained stable. Figure 6. Price trends in selected markets in Central America and Caribbean Maize Meal: Nominal retail prices in Port-au-Prince (Croix-de-Bossales), Haiti JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 5-year average Red Beans: Nominal retail prices in Managua. Nicaragua Black bean prices remain stable or decreased due to ongoing pigeon pea (a substitute) harvests. In Jacmel, bean prices declined eight percent between November and December and 23 percent compared with December Maize flour prices were stable throughout Haiti, due to the availability of maize grain from recent harvests. Maize flour prices decreased in Port au Prince by 14 percent and 9 percent in Jacmel between November and December. Maize flour prices were generally 20 to 35 percent below their respective 2012 levels AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 White Maize: Nominal retail prices in Managua, Nicaragua Imported rice and wheat flour prices remained stable across the country between November and December and are similar to their respective 2012 levels. In Jeremie wheat flour prices decreased by 16 percent, between November and December, and were 20 percent lower than their respective 2012 levels due to the availability of substitute tubers and roots. 0 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 Note: the figures follow the marketing year in each country. Sources: CNSA Haiti and SIMPAH Honduras. Central America: Food availability was good in December Maize and bean availability was good throughout the region and prices remain lower than their respective 2012 and five-year average levels. Between November and December maize and beans prices declined in all the countries except in Nicaragua where red beans prices increased due to the Apante harvest not yet reached markets. Black bean prices in Guatemala and Honduras decreased between November and December with the increased availability of the recent above-average Postrera harvest in markets. In El Salvador, red bean availability on markets following the recent Postrera harvest is good and prices declined by up to 13 percent between November and December. Bean production has increased steadily in El Salvador in recent years due to a combination of factors including an increase in Government technical assistance and the absence of adverse climate events. The red bean Apante harvest in Nicaragua typically occurs in February to early March. Pre-harvest wholesale and retail red bean prices increased by up to 14 percent between November and December. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 11

12 PRICE WATCH January 2014 Maize prices remained stable or declined between November and December within the sub region due to ample availability from recent Primera and Postrera harvests within the region and continuous trade flows between surplus and deficit areas. Prices are below their respective 2012 and have almost reached their five-year average levels. Imported rice prices were stable across the sub region between November and December. Prices are likewise comparable to their respective 2012 levels due to relatively stable local exchange rates and international rice prices. Outlook Haiti: Staple food prices will continue decreasing until February, due to the availability diverse local foods from good winter harvests and imported foods. Atypical dryness during the spring season in the northern areas of of the country affected production cycles for local sweet potatoes and vigna. Local spring harvests will be lower than average in affected areas, thereby increasing household dependence on staple foods sourced from elsewhere in the country and international markets. The lean season may start one month earlier than normal (February instead of March) in areas of the country that have experience droughts or prolonged periods of dryness in Prices in those areas are expected to increase as early as February. In addition, strained relations between Haiti and the Dominican Republic may affect normal cross-border trade activities. Central America (El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala): Staple food availability is expected to increased in the coming months (until March) following the Postrera and Apante harvests in region s main production zones resulting in stable or declining prices. Prices may increase in Honduras in the early months of 2014 as a result of reduced Primera yields in the country s main production areas. The price and availability of imported rice and wheat flour in both Central American and Haiti will depend heavily on local market conditions and exchange rate regimes as international reference prices for both commodities are expected to remain stable. CENTRAL ASIA Wheat prices declined steadily over the course of 2013 in Kazakhstan, the region s largest producer and exporter, due to sales of remaining carryover stocks from previous growing seasons and good 2013 harvests (USDA). Wheat and wheat flour prices were generally stable between November and December in Pakistan, an important source market for parts of Afghanistan, after increasing steadily earlier in the year due to reduced local harvest prospects (FAO). Wheat grain and flour prices were stable Tajikistan between November and December due to the availability of sufficient Kazakh imports and the progression of the domestic spring wheat harvest. Wheat and wheat flour prices remained stable in Afghanistan, although price levels were above their respective 2012 levels in many places (Figure 7). Afghanistan: Wheat harvests during the June-through-September season were above-average and markets remain well supplied with local and imported wheat grain and flour. Wheat and wheat flour prices were generally stable due to adequate household and trader stocks during the winter months. Wheat grain and flour prices increased by nine percent households and traders made purchases to build stocks ahead of winter when physical market access can be difficult. The stocking period in Afghanistan varies by elevation, but generally takes place between September and December. Wheat grain and flour prices have increased gradually since September in Nili, where they remain the highest nationwide due to its relative isolation and the poor local grain production in the western central highlands in 2013 (Figure 8). Elsewhere, wheat grain and flour prices remained at or above their respective August 2012 levels due to the lingering effects of high regional source market prices in 2012 and early Rice and vegetable oil prices were stable on most markets between September November and December. Transport fuel prices remained stable but above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels. The gradual depreciation of the local currency since January 2012 has contributed to recent imported staple food and fuel price increases. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 12

13 KZT/MT 000s KZT/MT PRICE WATCH January 2014 Tajikistan: Wheat grain and flour prices were in October due to the availability of adequate supplies from recent local harvests and imports from Kazakhstan (Figures 7). Figure 7. Price trends in Central Asia Milling Wheat: Nominal retail prices in Aktau Port, Kazakhstan Wheat prices in Kazakh source markets have decreased steadily since the beginning of this year, but are approximately 20 percent above their respective 2012 and five-year average levels. Wheat grain and flour prices in Tajikistan were similar to their respective December 2012 but seven to 27 percent above their respective fiveyear average levels. Potato prices increased slightly between November and December, as supplies from the recent local harvests declined. Vegetable oil, meat, and transport fuel prices were stable between November and December SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 Wheat: Nominal retail prices in Nili, Afghanistan Outlook Markets will remain well supplied with local and imported wheat grain and flour in Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan are favorable. Wheat prices in Pakistan may continue increasing in the coming months due to reduced production prospects this year and increased dependence on imports. Border areas of Afghanistan that typically source their wheat from Pakistan will likely experience similar trends. Rice prices are expected to remain stable or decrease due to lower seasonal consumption. The recent revision of Russian duties on fuel exports to Tajikistan may reduce transport costs and contribute to lower staple food prices in deficit areas over the consumption year SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG 5-year average 2008/ / / /14 Note: the figures follow the marketing year in each country Sources: WFP. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 13

14 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 December 2013 Prices January 31, 2014 West Africa Cotonou Maize* Ouagadougou Dried Milk Benin XOF Burkina Faso XOF 5, $0.44 (Sankaryare) $11.50 Rice Gasoline XOF XOF $1.11 $1.53 Cowpea Koudougou Millet* XOF Burkina Faso XOF $1.11 $0.34 Bohicon Maize* Maize Benin XOF XOF $0.37 $0.30 Rice Sorghum XOF XOF $1.11 $0.30 Come Maize* Djibo Millet* Benin XOF Burkina Faso XOF $0.44 $0.35 Rice Maize XOF XOF $1.11 $0.38 Malanville Wh Maize* Sorghum Benin XOF XOF 146 $1.36 $0.31 Cassava Flr Bobo Millet* XOF Dioulasso XOF $0.78 Burkina Faso $0.39 Parakou Maize* (Nineta) Maize Benin XOF XOF $0.30 $0.28 Rice Sorghum XOF XOF $1.03 $0.28 Ouagadougou Millet* Pouytenga Millet* Burkina Faso XOF Burkina Faso XOF (Sankaryare) $0.46 $0.37 Maize Maize XOF XOF $0.32 $0.32 Sorghum Sorghum XOF XOF $0.41 $0.29 Veg Oil Solenzo Millet* XOF Burkina Faso XOF $1.99 $0.28 West Africa (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices listed are final monthly average prices for December, The commodities with an asterisk (*) are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols ( ) depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an increase of five percent or greater, The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year average. The - symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.