Iowa State Swine Management

Transcription

1 Iowa State Swine Management Risk Assessment and Management 2617 Northridge Parkway Suite 101 Ames, Iowa it s not what you look at that counts, it is what you see June 2016

2 The legal stuff This publica0on is intended for informa0onal purposes only and the opinions set forth herein should not be viewed as an offer or solicita0on to buy, sell or otherwise trade futures, op0ons or securi0es. All opinions and informa0on contained in this document cons0tute Risk Assessment and Management, Inc. s judgment as of the date of this document and are subject to change without no0ce. Risk Assessment and Management, Inc. and their respec0ve directors and employees may effect or have effected a transac0on for their own account in the investments referred to in the material contained herein before or aber the material is published to any customer of Risk Assessment and Management, Inc. or may give advice to customers which may differ from or be inconsistent with the informa0on and opinions contained herein. While the informa0on contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Risk Assessment and Management, Inc. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any inaccuracy herein or from any use of this document or its contents. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published in electronic, paper or other form for any purpose without the prior wriden consent of Risk Assessment and Management, Inc. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objec0ves, financial situa0on and needs of any par0cular recipient. For the customers of Risk Assessment and Management, Inc. this report is produced exclusively for our business and expert clients, it is not for general distribu0on and our services are not available to private clients. Past performance is not indica0ve of future results.

3 USDA Long-Term Agricultural ProjecIon Tables Macroeconomic Overview (no/ce the two dis/nct scenarios) Global macroeconomic condi0ons reflect rela0vely sluggish economic growth in developing countries, a strong dollar, and low oil prices in the near term, with stronger developing country growth, a somewhat weaker dollar, and rising oil prices in the longer term. 7/6/16

4 Steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because growth in food consump0on and feed use are par0cularly responsive to income gains in those countries, with movement away from tradi0onal staple foods and increased diversifica0on of diets. 7/6/16

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13 Corn balance sheet Millions of Bushels 13/14 14/15 15/16 Area Planted Area Harvested Percent Harvested 92% 92% 92% Yield Per Acre Beginning Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 Production 13,829 14,216 13,601 Imports Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,392 Feed and Residual 5,040 5,323 5,250 Food, Seed and Industrial 6,493 6,560 6,610 Ethanol Usage 5,124 5,200 5,250 Total Domestic 11,534 11,883 11,860 Exports 1,920 1,864 1,825 Total Demand 13,454 13,748 13,685 Ending Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,708 Stocks to Usage 9.16% 12.59% 12.48% Average 7/6/16 Farm Price $4.46 $3.70 $ $3.70 USDA 16/ % ,708 14, ,179 5,550 6,670 5,300 12,220 1,950 14,170 2, % $ $3.80

14 US wheat balance table Millions of Bushels 13/14 14/15 15/16 Area Planted Area Harvested Percent Harvested 81% 82% 86% Yield per Harvested Acre Beginning Stocks Production 2,135 2,026 2,052 Imports Total Supply 3,026 2,766 2,921 Food Seed Feed and Residual Total Domestic Usage 1,260 1,159 1,166 Exports 1, Total Demand 2,436 2,014 1,941 16/ % , , , ,132 Ending Stocks ,050 Stocks to Usage 24.22% 37.34% 50.49% 49.25% Average Farm Price $6.87 $5.99 $4.90 $3.60 $4.40 7/6/16

15 World wheat 16/17 Report 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Feed Total Domestic Exports Total Demand Ending Stocks Stocks to Usage 20.66% 20.66% 25.69% 28.08% 29.89% 7/6/16

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19 Millions of Acres Millions of Bushels 12/13 13/14 14/15e Acres Planted Acres Harvested Percent Harvested 99% 99% 99% Yield Per Harvested Acre Beginning Stocks Production 3,042 3,358 3,927 Imports Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 Crushings 1,689 1,734 1,873 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,843 Seed Residual Total Demand 3,111 3,478 3, USDA Projectio April % , ,150 1,870 1, ,705 Ending Stocks Average Farm Price $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $8.50 $9.00 Stocks 7/6/16 to Usage 4.53% 2.65% 4.95% 12.01%

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22 Nearby beans in US dollars (right, black) and Brazilian real (leb, red) 7/6/16

23 US, Brazil and Argen0na Brazil and U.S Argentina Axis Title Brazil U.S. Argentina 7/6/16

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27 U.S. dairy herd and milk production per cow Million cows 10.0 Milk produced per cow (1,000 pounds) Output per cow (right scale) Milk cows (left scale) /6/16

28 U.S. red meat and poultry production Billion pounds Broilers Pork Beef /6/16

29 U.S. per capita meat consumption Pounds per capita, retail weight Broilers Beef Pork /6/16

30 Nominal U.S. livestock prices Dollars per hundredweight Beef cattle: Steers, 5-area Broilers: National composite Hogs: National base /6/16

31 U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans Dollars per bushel Soybeans 8 6 Wheat 4 2 Corn /6/16

32 Questions? Kerns and Associates 2617 Northridge Parkway Suite 101 Ames, Iowa