Cattle Situation and Outlook
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1 Cattle Situation and Outlook Midwest/Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference August 2010 Tim Petry Livestock Economist mwgpw.ppt 8/12/10
2 TO ALL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE ATTENDEES
3 Bear VS Bull Demand Supply Domestic Export Unexpected
4 DEMAND DEPENDS ON MACROECONOMICS
5 Source: National Restaurant Association National Restaurant Association s Restaurant Index Values Greater than 100 = Expansion; Values Less than 100 = Contraction
6 U.S. Meat Trade Percent Change, 2010 from 2009 Jan-May 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 16% -13% 15% 8% -15% -7% 5% Beef Exports Beef Imports Cattle Imports Pork Exports Hog Imports Broiler Exports Turkey Exports
7 Livestock Price and Production Patterns 1. Seasonal 3. Long term 2. Cycle 4. Unexpected
8 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS Mil. Head 130 JULY 1 CATTLE INVENTORY U.S % C-N-45 07/23/10 Mil. Head 55 JULY 1 COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Dairy Cows -1.1% 25 Beef Cows % C-N-46 07/23/10
9 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS Mil. Head 7 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S % C-N-37 07/23/10 Mil. Head 55 JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S % C-N-32 07/23/10
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11 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Quarterly Bil. Pounds Avg. 2004/ JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 2011 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC M-S-01 08/02/10
12 Feeder Cattle Prices A Pot of Gold at the Market?
13 Weekly Nearby Corn and Feeder Cattle Futures $125 $8.00 $120 Corn Futures $7.50 $7.00 Feeder Cattle $/cwt $115 $110 $105 $100 $95 $90 Feeder Cattle Futures $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 Corn $/bu $85 $2.00 Weeks Source: CME Group
14 Corn Prices New Plateau! $ Per Bu OMAHA CORN PRICES Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT G-P-02 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC
15 MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Dakotas, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Forecast
16 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Dakotas, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Fut 2010 Fut 2011 Forecast
17 /1/05 11/1/05 1/1/06 3/1/06 5/1/06 16% 7/1/06 CME Feeder Cattle Index 9/1/06 11/1/06 1/1/07 3/1/07 21% 19% 5/1/07 7/1/07 9/1/07 11/1/07 1/1/08 3/1/08 5/1/08 7/1/08 9/1/08 11/1/08 1/1/09 22% 10% 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 1/1/10 3/1/10 5/1/10 7/1/10
18
19 AM_LS753 Amarillo, TX Mon Aug 09, 2010 USDA-TX Dept of Ag Market News Superior Video Auction Monday August 2, 2010 thru Friday August 6, 2010 Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 08/09/2010 Offerings: 198,000 Trade active with good demand. Supply includes 48 percent feeder steers and heifers over 600 lbs, 64 percent of supply steers and 36 percent heifers. Receipts included 16 percent from South Central, 24 from North Central, 2 percent from East and 58 percent from West. Prices FOB based on net weights after a 2-3 percent pencil shrink or equivalent, with a 3-6 cent slide on yearlings and 4-10 on calves. Deliveries current through February *************************************************************** Northcentral States: Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska Montana, North and South Dakota and Iowa. *************************************************************** Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Delivery Oct Part Loads Oct Oct Oct Part Loads Oct Oct Part Loads Oct Calves Oct Part Loads Oct Calves Oct Part Loads Oct Calves Oct Oct Calves Oct Oct
20 Average Net Return to Labor and Management Per Beef Cow N.D. Farm Business Mgmt., Excluding Red River Valley Average Projected High 20% Low 20%
21 CHOICE SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly Forecast Fut 2010 Fut JAN APR JUL OCT
22 400 U.S. Monthly Retail and Food Sales 390 Billion Dollars J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: U.S. Census Bureau
23 $ Per Cwt STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT 2010 C-P-39 08/02/10 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Pounds Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC JAN APR JUL OCT Avg C-S-18 08/06/10
24 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/AMS $ Per Cwt. 700 WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES Boneless 0x1, Weekly Avg JAN $ Per Cwt APR JUL WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly OCT /02/10 Avg JAN APR JUL OCT M-P-24 08/02/10
25 Competing Meats Ron and Shayle/Joel will discuss $ Per Cwt JAN BARROW AND GILT PRICES Iowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly APR JUL OCT Avg H-P-09 08/09/10 Cents Per Pound JAN APR BROILER PRICES 12-City Composite, Weekly JUL OCT Avg P-P-01 08/09/10
26 Price Forecasts, $/cwt USDA LMIC AAEA FUTURES FED-5 AREA 2010 Q A Q D Q F Q A Q A Q D STEERS 2010 Q S Q N Q M Q M Q Q
27 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES 85-90% Lean, Weekly $ Per Cwt Forecast JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC C-P-35 01/05/09
28 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled by LMIC C-S-34 08/06/10
29 Is the Cattle Cycle Dead? When will beef cow slaughter decline? When will beef herd rebuilding start?
30 Drought Monitor 8/3/2010 8/5/2008 8/1/2006 8/3/2004 8/6/2002 8/1/2000
31 Crisis Management : Drought : Terrorist Attack 2003 : BSE 2006-now : Corn Based Ethanol 2006 : Avian Influenza 2008 : Extreme Price Volatility 2009 : Economic Crisis, H1N1
32
33 HAPPIER TIMES ARE AHEAD FOR CATTLE PRICES Questions?
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