Food Security Bulletin

Transcription

1 Date of issue: 9 July 212 Food Security Bulletin Horn of Africa MAY - DEKAD 1 MAY - DEKAD 2 MAY - DEKAD 3 CONTENTS: RAINFALL ANALYSIS RAINFALL & VEGETATION ANALYSIS VEGETATION ANALYSIS CURRENT SEASON & PROJECTIONS SOMALIA TERMS OF TRADE SOUTH SUDAN GENERAL FOOD SECURITY CONDITION TECHNICAL NOTE not started yet 1-25% 25-75% 75-1% JUNE - DEKAD 1 JUNE - DEKAD 2 JUNE - DEKAD 3 Progress of the start of the current growing season

2 2 EDITORIAL The lean season is the period of the year that precedes the harvest. It is usually characterized by exhausting food storages, high food prices, low assets value, liquidity constraints and high malnutrition rates. Within a year, this is the moment of the food insecurity peak. At the same time, it is the period of hope when the main crops are growing and the next harvest is expected. The lean season is a critical moment to monitor food security. Most parts of the agricultural and agro-pastoral areas of the Horn of Africa are now crossing the lean season. Exceptions are in the south-east of the region (south Somalia and east Kenya), where the fruit of the rain season has already been harvested and in the north-west, were the last plantings are taking place (Sudan). Since in general, the last harvest has been normal or good over large areas of the region (see the previous issue, 21 May 212), food security indicators have been improving, in particular in areas previously hit by the crisis. However, important cereal deficits have been observed in Sudan and South Sudan, implying a present threat for food security in those countries. This bulletin provides not only an overview of the current situation, but also a taste of what can be expected for the upcoming harvest. In addition, some efforts have been put on providing the reader with information about uncertainties of our future scenarios (see technical note for details). Finally, the evolution of market prices and terms of exchanges in Somalia is analyzed and the general food security situation in South Sudan is presented.

3 RAINFALL ANALYSIS FROM MARCH TO JUNE 212 PRINCIPLE: THE RAINFALL ANOMALY IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TOTAL RAINFALL RE- CEIVED DURING A PERIOD AND THE AVERAGE APRIL 212 MAY 212 NORMAL START OF THE RAINY SEA- SON IN THE MAIN AGRICULTURAL AR- EAS OF SUDAN, ERITREA AND NORTHERN ETHIOPIA. OF TOTAL RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING THE SAME PERIOD IN THE PREVIOUS YEARS. NEGA- TIVE ANOMALIES INDICATE CONDITIONS THAT ARE DRYER THAN EXPECTED. ABOVE NORMAL RAINS OVER WEST- ERN KENYA, UGANDA, CENTRAL SO- MALIA, AND SOUTH-EAST OF SOUTH SUDAN. DEFICIT OF RAINS OVER SOUTH-EAST KENYA, SOUTH OF SOMALIA, AND IN The long rains season started with delays going up to three dekads in large parts of the South Sudan and west of Ethiopia. Good rainfalls resumed in April (Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan) and in May (Ethiopia), and continued to be regular in June in most parts of the region. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF ETHIO- The central highlands of Ethiopia need to be PIA. JUNE 212 FROM MARCH TO JUNE 212 closely monitored as the June rains did not perform exceptionally well, adding to the REFERENCE TOTAL RAINFALL dry spells of the March and April. The total FROM MARCH TO JUNE amount of rainfalls since March is almost half of what is normally expected. The affected area is an important cereal produc- 1 tion region. 2 Source: TAMSAT historical average ( ) The pastoral areas of south Ethiopia, Somalia and north-east Kenya have had a good rainy season, whereas the Kenyan coastal areas (Ijara and Garissa) and neighbouring areas of Somalia (Juba Hoose) were dryer than normal Total rainfall anomalies (mm) with the historical average ( ) for 3 months during the growing season 212, and for the cumulative rainfall over 4 months. Source: TARCAT v2. (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series). 3

4 NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI RAINFALL AND VEGETATION ANALYSIS CURRENT SEASON DELAYED VEGETATION ONSET (2-3 DEKADS) IN MANY AREAS. CROPLAND AREAS IN ETHIOPIA AND UGANDA ARE AFFECTED. GOOD CONDITIONS IN PASTORAL AREAS OF SOUTH SUDAN AND NORTHERN KENYA. LOW FORAGE AVAILABILITY DURING THE FIRST WEEKS OF THE DRY SEA- SON IN SOUTHERN KENYA AND SOUTH-EAST OF SOMALIA. CROPLAND AREAS Source: JRC crop mask (v2.2) PRINCIPLE: THE NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX (NDVI) IS DERIVED FROM SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING DATA. REMARKABLY LOW VALUES COMPARED TO THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INDICATE DROUGHT. Due to a deficit of rain at the start of the growing season in central and western highlands of Ethiopia (Illubabor, Eeast Wellega, South Omo), planting of the Meher crops has been delayed. The vegetation index trend indicates that the situation is improving and close to normal at the end of June in the western areas (Jimma and surrounding areas), whereas in the eastern highlands the vegetation growth remains below average. The areas received above average rains at the end of June, indicating perhaps a real start of the main rainy season. After a difficult start, vegetation conditions improved in May and June in central and northern Uganda. The main pastoral areas of South Sudan have received good rainfall since April and the vegetation indices at the end of June indicate above average conditions. This is particularly good in usually dry livestockdependent areas of South Sudan (Kapoeta) and of Kenya (Turkana).,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 1 4 Kapoeta (South Sudan) Rainfall Average Rainfall 212 NDVI Average NDVI 212 Jimma (Ethiopia) 2 Rainfall Average Rainfall 212 NDVI Average NDVI 212 FROM MARCH TO JUNE Cumulative NDVI anomaly for the current season (from March to June 212). NDVI and rainfall profiles for 212 compared to the average, i.e. respectively and Data ources: SPOT VEGETATION for the vegetation and TAMSAT for the rainfall.,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 3 West Haraerghe (Ethiopia) Rainfall Average Rainfall 212 NDVI Average NDVI 212 Budiope (Uganda) 4 Rainfall Average Rainfall 212 NDVI Average NDVI 212 Ijara (Kenya) 5 Rainfall Average Rainfall 212 NDVI Average NDVI 212 Badhaadhe (Somalia) 6 Rainfall Average Rainfall 212 NDVI Average NDVI

5 VEGETATION ANALYSIS CURRENT SEASON PRINCIPLE: THE NORMALIZED DIFFER- ENCE VEGETATION INDEX (NDVI) IS DE- RIVED FROM SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING APRIL 212 MAY 212 IN MANY AREAS THE VEGETATION DATA. REMARKABLY LOW VALUES COM- STARTED WITH A DELAY OF 2 DEKADS TO 1 MONTH. PARED TO THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE INDI- CATE DROUGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVED IN WESTERN ETHIOPIA IN JUNE. NORMAL START OF THE SEASON IN SOUTH-WEST ERITREA AND WEST TIGRAY. CROPLAND AREAS In spite of a delay at the vegetation onset in the main agricultural areas of Sudan, the vegetation started well and even achieved a higher biomass production in the eastern South Sudan compared to the historical average. Due to a deficit of rainfall at the start of the growing season, the vegetation conditions remained poor along the season in the Western part of Ethiopia, in Uganda, in the south-east of Kenya, and in the south-west of Somalia. This should reduce the belg harvest in Ethiopia, and affect the pasture areas in south-east of Kenya and south of Somalia. Very poor Poor Country Normal Province Good Very Good Water JUNE 212 FROM MARCH TO JUNE 212 Elsewhere (north of Kenya, south of Ethiopia, Karamoja in Uganda), the forage availability is higher than the average. Source: JRC crop mask (v2.2) The vegetation indices indicate also a normal start of season in a major agricultural area of Eritrea (Gash Barka). Monthly and seasonal vegetation condition (NDVI) compared to the historical average ( ). Data source: SPOT VEGETATION 5

6 VEGETATION ANALYSIS CURRENT SEASON PROGRESS POOR VEGETATION CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LARGE AREAS OF SOUTH SUDAN AND ETHIOPIA. PRINCIPLE: THE CUMULATIVE FAPAR ANOMA- LIES FOR THE CURRENT SEASON ARE PROJECT- ED TO THE EXPECTED VALUE AT THE END OF THE SEASON USING THREE SCENARIOS BASED ON THE SHORT TERM AVERAGE. SCENARIOS ARE SUMMARISED PROVIDING THE PROBABILITY OF ACHIEVING AT LEAST TIONS. NORMAL CONDI- CURRENT SEASON JUNE 212 OPTIMISTIC WESTERN ETHIOPIA AND EASTERN SOUTH SUDAN ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VEGETATION CONDITIONS. GOOD VEGETATION CONDITIONS IN PASTORAL AREAS IN ETHIOPIA. Western regions in South Sudan, SNNP and north-western Oromia in Ethiopia have low probability of recovering from the current poor vegetation conditions, even in the optimistic scenario. Western part of Amhara region has also a quite negative projection. On the contrary, western Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan and the Rift Valley in Kenya are expected to have normal or above normal vegetation conditions. Very poor Poor Normal Good Very Good Water Country Province PROBABILITY OF ACHIEVING AT LEAST NORMAL CONDITIONS AVERAGE REFERENCE SEASON PROGRESS JUNE not started yet up to 25% up to 5% up to 75% up to 1% Southern regions of Sudan (Southern Darfur and Southern Kordofan) show overall good vegetation conditions at the beginning of the season and the projections indicate a high probability of a normal season. <2% PESSIMISTIC Poor vegetation conditions are confirmed in the coastal zone of Kenya and southern Somalia where the end of the growth season is approaching. Better than normal vegetation conditions are expected in the extreme eastern part of Somali region in Ethiopia, giving hope for improved livestock conditions after the difficult situation of % 4-6% 6-8% >8% On the left: current season cumulative fapar anomaly for June 212 (top) and probability of achieving at least normal conditions at the end of the season (bottom) based on the historical average ( ). On the right: current season cumulative fapar anomaly projection according to three scenarios. Data source: SPOT VEGETATION. 6

7 TERMS OF TRADE SOMALIA CEREAL PRICES ARE STABLE AND CLOSE TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE LIVESTOCK AND DAILY LABOUR GAINED IN VALUE SINCE LAST YEAR IN SOUTHERN SOMALIA FOOD ACCESS HAVE IMPROVED DEPLETION OF PRODUCTIVE ASSETS SHOULD BE MONITORED PRINCIPLE: LIVESTOCK AND LABOUR ARE IM- PORTANT ASSETS THAT CAN BE CONVERTED IN FOOD. THE TERMS OF TRADE MEASURES HOW MANY KILOGRAMS OF STAPLES CAN BE BOUGHT BY SELLING AN ANIMAL OR WORKING A DAY. THE LOWER IT IS, THE MORE EXPENSIVE FOOD IS IN REAL TERMS. In southern Somalia cereal prices went back down to levels similar to the ones observed before the 211 food crisis, and are now stable. Conversely, daily labor and livestock (camel, cattle and goats) prices remain markedly higher than usual in the area. In Mogadishu, a daily worker is earning more than 3 folds (in USD) what he used to do in average during the last 5 years, while in most of the markets livestock are from 5% to 2% more expensive than usual. As a consequence, the terms of trade are propitious for the improvement of food security. However, special attention should be paid to vulnerable households having lost their productive assets. In Somaliland, where markets were marginally affected by the crisis (see Vol. 19. Issue 2 of this bulletin), red sorghum and livestock prices are moderately above their seasonal means. The terms of trade in the region are within the bounds of normality. CAMEL/RED SORGHUM Sorghum Evolution of prices in Hargeisa in USD Red sorghum Camel Month / Year Average Red Sorghum Average Camel Camel DAILY LABOUR/RED SORGHUM Sorghum.8 Maps: terms of trade (May 212) with respect to the average of the last 5 years. Graphs: Prices evolution in Hargeisa and Mogadishu markets. Data source: FSNAU Evolution of prices in Mogadishu in USD Red sorghum Daily Labour Month / Year Average Red Sorghum Average Daily Labour Daily Labour

8 GENERAL FOOD SECURITY CONDITION SOUTH SUDAN CROPS PERFORMED BADLY DUE TO DELAYED AND ERRATIC RAINS IN THE LAST SEASON 47,MT CEREAL DEFICIT INSECURITY AND CONFLICTS PREVENT NORMAL MARKETS OF FONCTIONNING CEREAL PRICES ARE HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE. The Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) in South Sudan estimated a cereal deficit of 47, mt for the season. That corresponds to half of the national cereal requirements and to an increase of the deficit of 6 percent when compared to last year. The delayed and erratic 211 rains combined with the arrival of returnees and the persisting insecurity issues are cited as the major factors leading to the current cereal deficit. These factors are all the most important given the nascent status of the institutions in the country. In May 212, it was estimated that 4.7 million people could suffer from food insecurity, among which 1 million people are severely food-insecure. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) food insecurity analysis shows that the key areas concerned by Phase 4 (Emergency) on the IPC scale include parts of Northern Bahr El Gazal, Warrap, Western Upper Nile, Upper Nile and the part of northern central Jonglei. Most of the states in the livelihoods zones of Ironstone Plateau, Pastoral, Nile Sobat Rivers and Western and Eastern flood plains are classified in Phase 3 (Crisis). The first harvests are expected from mid-july to mid-august in the greenbelt area. However those harvests are mainly for local consumption and don t benefit to other regions that are more exposed to food insecurity risk than the greenbelt. Conditions in the pastoral areas of Eastern equatorial and Jonglei are expected to improve thanks to good rainfall in April and May. In the capital Juba sorghum prices are stable, with a moderate increase since the last harvest (end 211). The same upward trend over the same period is observed in Wau. Conversely, substantial price volatility has been observed in markets located along the border with Sudan (e.g. Malakal), due to the conflict with Sudan and security problems. In all cases, prices are higher now than one year ago, reflecting the cereal deficit in the country that adds to trade ban with Sudan. The conflict with Sudan blocked the main cereal supply road, Khartoum Malakal. Northern areas will be particularly affected because the alternative roads (from Uganda and from Kenya) imply very high transport costs. The rainy season will even worsen the situation as most of the main roads are unpaved. Data source: FEWSNET 8

9 9 TECHNICAL NOTE CURRENT SEASON PROGRESS Vegetation production can be approximated by the cumulative fapar (the fraction of the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plants, as estimated by remote sensing) over the season (see technical note of Bulletin Vol. 2, issue 1, May 212). During the growing season, the biomass production achieved from the start of season (SOS) to the time of analysis is compared with its expected value (a historical average), and then meaningful anomalies can then be derived. In the analysis of page 6, such anomalies are expressed qualitatively in terms of vegetation conditions (from very poor to very good). This classification corresponds to how often the observed anomalies are expected to happen based on the hypothesis that the anomalies follow a Gaussian distribution: very poor (less than 1 every 2 years), poor (1 every 5), normal (1 every 2), good (1 every 5), and very good (1 every 2). Given the present anomalies and in order to provide an insight on the final outcome of the season, the probability that the current situation will evolve to (or remain in) normal or better than normal conditions is estimated. In other words, this is the probability that the remaining part of the growing season will be sufficiently good to: (i) recover from poor to normal or better than normal conditions or (ii) not deteriorate from normal or better than normal to below normal conditions. The figure on the right graphically depicts this concept. The cumulative fapar at the time of analysis (today) shows below normal conditions for a location that completed about one third of its expected growing cycle. For the remaining of the cycle, three evolution scenarios taken from the historical archive lead to very poor (red), poor (orange) and normal (yellow) final conditions (i.e., at EOS). We thus compute the probability, given the past performances at this location, that recovery will occur (yellow scenario). This probability takes into account two factors: the present vegetation conditions and the fraction of growing cycle completed so far. Hence, the recovering probability in a location that shows poor conditions and has nearly completed its usual growing cycle will be low. On the contrary, the probability of recovery may be high if the the same poor conditions are observed at the beginning of the growing season. In summary, the probability map indicates the likelihood that the vegetation conditions will be normal or better than normal at the end of the growing season given what has been observed so far in the present season. In addition, it informs on how reliable are currently observed anomalies.

10 All maps and underlying data can be downloaded at: ftp://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/bulletin/hornafrica/ Authors: Christelle Vancutsem, Eduardo Marinho, Giancarlo Pini, Tharcisse Nkunzimana, Francois Kayitakire, Felix Rembold, Ferdinando Urbano, Michele Meroni, Hervé Kerdiles, Anne-Claire Thomas Contact: Francois Kayitakire, FOODSEC Action Leader European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute of Environment and Sustainability, MARS Unit, FOODSEC Action The mission of the JRC is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies. As a service of the European Commission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the Union. Close to the policymaking process, it serves the common interest of the Member States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national. Legal Notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EU position. European Union, 212 Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged Photos credits: Eduardo Marinho (p. 2, 4), Grégoire Dubois (p. 3).