SPECIAL REPORT: YEMEN Food Security Brief April 17, 2015

Transcription

1 SPECIAL REPORT: YEMEN Fd Security Brief April 17, 2015 Key Messages Yemen has experienced high levels f acute fd insecurity in recent years, stemming frm plitical crisis, a weakening ecnmy, and cnflict-related displacement and disruptin t nrmal livelihds. Husehld purchasing pwer is expected t decrease in the cming mnths due t varius factrs, including increasing fd prices and reduced labr pprtunities. Because almst all pr husehlds rely heavily n market purchase fr fd access, a deteriratin in purchasing pwer wuld have implicatins n the quantity and quality f fd access. The rapidly deterirating security situatin will exacerbate fd insecurity. Areas f particular cncern fr deterirating utcmes include Sa dah, Hajjah, Abyan, Ad Dali, Lahij, and Shabwah Gvernrates, as well as the city f Aden. Mst areas f Yemen are expected t be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with increasing ppulatins in need f humanitarian assistance as the cnflict cntinues. If cnflict and market disruptin cntinue, and humanitarian access is limited, the wrst affected areas f Yemen culd fall int Emergency (IPC Phase 4) ver the cming mnths. Cntext Staple fd imprts accunt fr a majr share f natinal fd availability in Yemen. Wheat imprts average arund 2.8 millin metric tns (MT) annually, accunting fr 95 percent f natinal wheat cnsumptin. On average, Yemen imprts apprximately 3.7 millin MT f cereals, and the frecast fr cereal imprts during the 2014/2015 marketing year is 4.1 millin MT, accrding t FAO/GIEWS. Agricultural prductin and ppulatin are cncentrated in the western part f the cuntry. Yemen s tw rainy seasns in the central highlands ccur frm March t May and July t August. In castal areas, including the Western Castal Plain where srghum prductin is cncentrated, the main rain seasn runs frm May thrugh September. With these rains, milk availability als increases between April and Octber. The main staple fd and cash crp harvests are in June-July and Octber-December. Demand fr labr peaks between September and January. Access t fd and incme is mst cnstrained during the April-May lean seasn, prir t the first seasn harvests. Estimates frm FAO indicate average cereal prductin in Annual staple fd prductin in Yemen averages abut 426,000 MT f srghum, 240,000 MT f wheat (the main staple cnsumed), and 83,000 MT f millet. Primary cash crps include qat, cffee, cttn, sesame, and tbacc. Althugh Yemen imprts mre than 80 percent f its cereals, the agriculture sectr prvides a main surce f emplyment fr 54 percent f the ppulatin and cntributed 17.5 percent f GDP in 2010, accrding t the Ministry f Agriculture and Irrigatin. In the densely ppulated, muntainus areas f western Yemen, rural livelihds are dminated by agricultural labr, prductin f staple crps, cash crps, and livestck. T the east, brad swaths f nrthern Yemen are arid desert and are dminated by pastralism, with agrpastral areas lcated n the suthern and eastern plateau. Fd insecurity in 2014 Multiple shcks since the plitical transitin in 2011/2012 have reduced the cping capacity f pr husehlds, particularly fr thse that have already been displaced by cnflict in recent years, including many husehlds in Abyan Gvernrate. FEWS NET analysis fr late 2014 indicated that mst gvernrates in the densely-ppulated west f the cuntry were in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute fd insecurity. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

2 Accrding t WFP s 2014 Cmprehensive Fd Security Survey (CFSS) reprt, the prevalence f fd insecurity was generally similar t 2011, althugh fd security wrsened in sme gvernrates, including indicatins f a substantial deteriratin f utcmes in Shabwah Gvernrate. Based n fd cnsumptin scre (FCS) data frm the survey, the CFSS estimated that 41 percent f the ppulatin (10.6 millin peple) is fd insecure ( brderline fd cnsumptin), with 19 percent (5 millin peple) in severe fd insecurity ( pr fd cnsumptin). Key drivers f fd insecurity in 2014 included: Disruptins in the fuel market cntributed t increased fd prices, with the cereal cmpnent f the cnsumer price index (CPI) rising by 16 percent frm January t September Increasing cnflict disrupted nrmal livelihds and access t markets in sme areas, including in Al Bayda, Sa dah, Hajjah, and Al Hudaydah Gvernrates. An estimated 80,000 peple were displaced by cnflict in The plitical crisis cntributed t macrecnmic disruptins, including reduced private sectr investment and emplyment pprtunities. Althugh verall 2014 agricultural prductin was average, the late start t the first rain seasn affected prductin f sme crps including legumes and cffee, especially in the central highlands f Sa ada, Al Mahwiet, Amran, Dhamar, Sana a, Al Bayda, and Raymah Gvernrates. Fd insecurity in 2015 Public sectr salaries and scial spending have been disrupted, and it is unclear hw r whether they will be paid in the cming mnths. Agricultural prductin and labr pprtunities are likely t be limited by cnflict in many areas. Fd prices are expected t rise, particularly in cnflict znes, which culd be further exacerbated if the rial (YER) depreciates against the dllar (USD) and ther currencies. These factrs will lead t decreased husehld purchasing pwer. Because almst all pr husehlds rely heavily n market purchase fr fd access, a deteriratin in purchasing pwer wuld have implicatins n the quantity and quality f fd access. Mst areas f Yemen are expected t be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with increasing ppulatins in need f humanitarian assistance as the cnflict cntinues. Cnflict-affected husehlds with limited cping capacity may enter Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Current areas f particular cncern due t nging cnflict and pr fd security indicatrs frm the CFSS include Sa dah, Hajjah, Abyan, Ad Dali, Lahij, and Shabwah Gvernrates. Althugh fd security indicatrs fr Aden were better than fr almst any ther area in the cuntry in the CFSS, intense cnflict has led t displacement and rapidly deterirating fd security utcmes. If cnflict and market disruptin cntinue, and humanitarian access is limited, the wrst affected areas f Yemen culd fall int Emergency (IPC Phase 4) ver the cming mnths. Key factrs expected t cntinue t drive fd insecurity in 2015 include: The security situatin cntinues t deterirate rapidly after cntinued Al Huthi advances and Saudi-led air strikes that began n March 26 th (Figure 2). Significant displacement, disruptin f livelihds, and disruptins t fd imprts, distributin, and nrmal market functining are likely. As f January 31, 2015, the number f internally-displaced persns std at 334,000, accrding t OCHA. On April 17 th, a statement by UNHCR indicated that the number f civilians displaced by the recent escalatin f vilence is estimated between 120,000 and 150,000 peple. Althugh fficial fuel prices have remained steady in recent weeks (YER 150/liter; USD 0.70/liter), the availability f diesel and petrl fr purchase at this price is increasingly limited. Infrmatin frm key infrmants in Sana a, Al Hudaydah, and Ta izz have indicated that as f April 13 th the cst t cnsumers f fuel (black market price) in each f these cities is apprximately YER 1,000/liter (USD 4.64/liter). The Famine Early Warning Systems Netwrk FEWS NET 2

3 increasing cst f fuel is expected t put upward pressure n staple fd prices in mst markets. Many husehlds in Sana a and elsewhere nrmally rely n mbile water tanks fr basic water needs. The price f water frm these mbile units in Sana a is reprted t have dubled due t the rising cst and limited availability f diesel. Reduced il revenues threaten the gvernment s ability t maintain fuel subsidies, scial spending and public sectr salaries. Revenue frm il exprts, which accunts fr 70 percent f the natinal budget, declined by 37 percent between 2013 and 2014, due t declining prductin and exprt capacity as well as a drp in internatinal il prices. Cnflict has disrupted prductin during early In additin, several cuntries in the regin have suspended financial supprt t the Yemeni gvernment, mst ntably Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni rial (YER) is likely t depreciate against the U.S. Dllar (USD) and ther currencies, increasing the cst f imprted fd cmmdities. Yemen s freign exchange reserves declined by 31 percent between 2009 and Recent reductins in internatinal financial supprt and il revenue are likely t further reduce freign exchange reserves in the cming mnths. Cnflict has reprtedly disrupted bth the imprtatin f gds and the transprt f thse gds frm prts t their terminal markets. Given these factrs, in cmbinatin with the likely reductin in fuel subsidies and depreciatin f the rial (YER), fd prices are likely t increase in the cming mnths. Althugh FEWS NET des nt have detailed current data n fd prices acrss the cuntry, initial reprts indicate that prices fr staples have risen by as much as 40 percent in sme markets. The availability f staples is als limited in sme markets. While FEWS NET des nt have a cmprehensive list f markets where supply is becming unusually lw, reprts received indicate that this is happening in Aden, Ta izz, Sa dah, and Amran. The Ministry f Industry and Trade reprted that, as f February 23 rd, stcks f fd cmmdities ttaled 866,627 MT. This is equivalent t apprximately 2.5 mnths f cereal imprts, based n FAO estimates fr the current marketing year. Hwever, nging cnflict and limited functining f the gvernment will limit the distributin f existing stcks t lcal markets. Pririties fr emergency mnitring The fllwing indicatrs are critical fr cntinued mnitring f the fd security situatin: Imprts f staple fds Functining f markets, including transprtatin frm prts t markets Agricultural labr pprtunities and harvest prspects Human displacement and humanitarian access Stability f the rial (YER) against the dllar (USD) and ther currencies Payments f public sectr salaries, scial welfare and safety net prgrams Functining f the banking sectr and ability f Yemenis living abrad t send remittances Famine Early Warning Systems Netwrk FEWS NET 3

4 Figure 1. FEWS NET mst likely fd security utcmes, April thrugh June 2015 Nte: This map reflects analysis cnducted prir t increases in cnflict in late March and April. Surce: FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Netwrk FEWS NET 4

5 Figure 2. Yemen Cnflict Map March 26 April Famine Early Warning Systems Netwrk FEWS NET 5