Eritrea Food Security Update: September 6, 2001

Transcription

1 Eritrea Food Security Update: September 6, 2001 Summary The number of persons that will require food aid will increase by more than 100,000 by the end of This compares with 200,000 IDPs in camps, 100,000 IDPs outside camps, and 600,000 returnees at the end of 2000, but does not include drought-affected populations. WFP and the government of Eritrea have signed letters of agreement to provide assistance to war-affected and drought-affected populations in Eritrea. The target beneficiaries under EMOP (Assistance to the War Affected Populations in Eritrea) include million IDPs, expellees, vulnerable host communities, returning refugees from Sudan, and soldiers who will be demobilized. Meanwhile, EMOP (Assistance to the Drought Affected Populations in Eritrea) is targeting about 740,000 drought-affected persons in Makel, Anseba, and Northern and Southern Red Sea Zones. The EMOPs will cover the period from May to February The balance of food stocks at ERREC warehouses as of August 27 stood at 37,320, adequate for only two to three months. According to two nutrition surveys, malnutrition in children under five is higher among those living outside camps compared with those living inside camps. The joint surveys were conducted by a group of NGOs and the Ministry of Health (MOH) in Anseba and Gash Barka Zones.. With the kremti rains continuing during August, the current season is one of the wettest on record. Excessive rains and hailstorms have caused severe damage to property and crops. Preliminary crop estimates for the 2001 crop season are dramatically improved over last year s production. The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) announced that the total area under crops is 342,442 ha and is projecting production of 223,978 MT, compared with 85,000 MT in The lower harvest figures from 2000 are a result of population displacement last year when fighting forced farming households to abandon already planted fields and because of poor rainfall in the remaining cultivated areas. 1. Review of Continuing Food Crises Since the situation of the 70,000 IDPs that are still in camps has not changed, and with the resumption of repatriation of the remaining refugees from the Sudan, the number of food aid recipients will increase by more than 100,000 by the end of the year. In addition, more than 90,000 refugees are expected to return from Sudan during Until all these people are resettled, the need for food assistance will continue through 2002 and beyond.

2 2. Food Security Conditions and Prospects 2.1. Current Food Stocks Status In its Emergency Report No. 34 of August 24, 2001, WFP reported that ERREC distributed 2,622 MT of food to 217,933 war- and drought-affected persons in Debub, Gash Barka, and Anseba Zones, between August The balance of WFP food stocks at ERREC warehouses as of August 27 stands at 37,820 MT. The breakdown is presented in Figure 1. At current levels of distribution, these stocks will meet Eritrea s needs for the next 2-3 months. Figure 1. Food Stocks at ERREC Warehouses as of August 27, 2001 (MT) Commodity Carried Forward New Arrivals Amount Issued Balance Wheat 26,931 3,292 2,654 27,569 Wheat Flour Lentils 2, ,180 Peas CSB 1, ,898 Oil ,838 DMK Rice 1, ,920 Sugar Biscuits UNIMIX 1, ,200 Salt Milk Source: ERREC WFP and the government of Eritrea have signed letters of agreement for providing assistance to war-affected and drought-affected populations in Eritrea. EMOP (Assistance to the War- Affected Populations in Eritrea) is targeting assistance to 1,048,404 war-affected persons that include IDPs, expellees, vulnerable host communities, returning refugees from Sudan, and soldiers who will be demobilized. If fully pledged, EMOP will cost close to $43.9 million. Under EMOP (Assistance to the Drought-Affected Populations in Eritrea), the target beneficiaries include 738,450 drought-affected persons in Makel, Anseba, and Northern and Southern Red Sea Zones. Both EMOPs will cover the period from May 2001 to February Under the EMOPs, targeted beneficiaries will receive 60 percent normal rations. Findings from two health and nutrition surveys indicate that the nutrition status of people inside camps is significantly better than those outside of camps. One survey, carried out by MOH, Save the Children UK, and ECHO in August, the examined the health and nutrition status of 914 children under five years old living in camps in three subzones of the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ). The survey sought to determine whether 1) rates of global malnutrition in children are below 10 percent; 2) the rate of crude mortality is below 1 death per 10,000 per day; 3) the under-five mortality rate is less than 2/10,000children/day; and 4) epidemics and diseases are under control.. 2

3 The survey, carried out in Lalai Gash, Shambuko, and Gogne subzones in Gash Barka Zone, found the following: Global and severe acute malnutrition rates were 8 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. The malnutrition rates were determined using the weight/height z-score and these were found to be within acceptable range. The crude mortality rate was found to be 0.3/10,000/day, while the under-five mortality rate is 0.5/10,000/day, both within the WHO normal range. The low mortality and malnutrition rates are attributed to the fact that most of the sample households came from IDP camps where there was a sufficient package of services that include general ration distribution, supplementary feeding program, free health care, free clean water, and adequate hygiene and sanitation services. In another nutrition survey conducted in June 2001, Concern, an international NGO active in the field of nutrition, looked at conditions in Asmat and Hagaz, the drought-hit subzones of Anseba Zone. The survey, conducted on a sampling of 902 children between 6-59 months of age who do not live in camps, found that 1) the global acute malnutrition using the weight-for-height z- scores was 21 percent, of which 3.5 percent were severely malnourished; and 2) the level of global acute malnutrition was 23.1 percent in Asmat and 20 percent in Hagaz. These rates of global acute malnutrition are considered critical according to WHO standards. The recommended relief action for this ranking is to improve basic food supplies to all children and vulnerable groups. The findings from the two surveys underscore the need for greater attention to be paid to conditions of drought-affected populations such as those found in Hagaz and Asmat in Anseba Zone FoodSecurity Outlook for the Year Kremti (Main Rains) The current main rains (kremti) season, producing some of the most unusual and wettest weather conditions Eritrea has ever seen, is interfering with the timely onset of agricultural activities in some areas. In a number of pockets, excessive rainfall has caused problems of water logging and farmers were not able to cultivate their fields. Rainfall during August, the third month of the kremti season, continued over much of Makel, Debub, Gash Barka, and Anseba Zones. As a result, parts of Debub and Makel Zones experienced wet conditions that prevented the timely sowing of chickpeas in areas that were specifically reserved for chickpeas and in some areas that were already planted but were damaged by excess rain and were to be resown with chickpeas. As a result, the planting of chickpeas in these areas will most likely be abandoned. If chickpeas are not planted on time, they will suffer severely from frost in December during the seed-setting time and thus seriously reduce the potential harvest. Some pockets in Debub, Makel, and Northern Red Sea Zones have reported severe damage to crops due to hailstones and floods. On August 13-14, heavy rainfall combined with hailstorms pelted Serejaka subzone of Makel Zone for two hours, damaging crops in several villages. The total amount of rainfall recorded was 88 mm and 56 mm, respectively. The villages affected by this hailstorm are Beleza, Shemanigus Tahtai, and Embaderho. The total area damaged is 600 ha in Embaderho, 250 ha 3

4 in Shemanigus Tahtai, and 500 ha in Beleza. The damaged crops include barley, wheat, and potatoes. On August 24, hailstorms damaged a total of 125 ha that was planted to different crops in the village of Gheremi of subzone Serejaka. In a similar report from Northern Red Sea Zone, Ghelalo subzone, in Bada village, floods that flow from the highlands damaged an agricultural area that covers about 250 ha and washed away embankments, diversion structures, and some houses. The cumulative monthly rainfall for selected stations in the different zones is depicted in Figure 2. Reports from the Meteorological Office indicate that out of the 75 stations that reported, only 17 stations had poor rainfall performance (under 100 mm) while 39 stations reported good rainfall performance (between 100 and 200 mm) and the remaining 20 stations reported very Figure 2. Comparison of Rainfall in August: and Average 400 Millimeters Average Asmara Tseazega Afdeyu Agordat Barentu Golge Adi-kaih Adi-quala Mendefera Decamare Keren Gheleb Halhal FEWS NET/Eritrea Source: Eritrean Meteorological Office good rainfall performance (more than 200 mm). A number of stations in Debub and Makel zones experienced the wettest conditions for August. In spite of the good rainfall in most parts of the country, other areas did not get much rainfall. Forto and Dighe subzones of Gash Barka, and Kerkebet, Asmat, and Sela subzones of Anseba have continued to experience dry conditions. These are some of the subzones that have been affected by drought over the last two to three years. Figure 3 compares the rainfall estimate (RFE) and vegetation conditions (NDVI) for three consecutive dekads beginning with the third dekad of July to the second dekad of August. Although the rainfall estimate was reasonable starting from the first dekad of July, the vegetation conditions were still poor in most parts of the country until the second dekad of August. Even then, the extent of the vegetation cover was mostly confined to the Temporary 4

5 Figure 3. Rainfall Estimates (RFE) and Vegetation (NDVI) for July 21 August RFE NDVI FEWS NET/Eritrea Source: NOAA, NASA 5

6 Security Zones (TSZ) areas that are situated along the southern border of the country. These are areas with little or no agricultural activity because of insecurity and land mines. Therefore, the medium and heavy vegetation seen along the TSZ is not a good reflection of crop conditions because so little agricultural activity goes on there. The image shows that the vegetation cover in Forto, Dighe, Kerkebet, Sela, and Asmat subzones is light to arid Agricultural Situation and Crop Conditions The Ministry of Agriculture has issued a preliminary crop estimate for the year 2001 crop season. According to the MOA, the total area under crops is 342,442 ha and expected production is 223,978 MT. In terms of area, cereals cover 87 percent, while pulses and oil seeds contribute 7 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Last year, Eritrea produced only 85,000 MT of all crops. The increased production in 2001 reflects progress in settling displaced persons back in lands that could not be cultivated last year due to the war. In terms of production, the contribution of cereals, pulses, and oilseeds is 93 percent, 3 percent, and 4 percent, respectively. The detailed breakdown of the crop estimate is presented in Figure 4. Figure 4. Area Planted and Production Estimates for 2001 by Zoba Zones TOTAL Anseba Debub Gash Barka Makel Northern Red Sea Crop Area Prod Area Prod Area Prod Area Prod Area Prod Area Prod Ha MT Ha MT Ha MT Ha MT Ha MT Ha MT Cereals Barley 38,718 27,178 3,281 1,969 20,711 15, ,119 9,839 1, Hanfez 3,995 3, ,675 2, Wheat 20,777 14, ,928 6, ,239 7, Maize 13,816 11,008 2,381 1,191 6,561 6, ,500 2,453 Sorghum 142, ,846 16,459 8,230 35,482 22,454 80,454 80, ,435 8,559 Taff 29,924 11, ,992 11, Finger millet 14,416 5, ,107 5, Pearl millet 34,849 14,697 15,945 6, ,554 5, ,350 3,175 Subtotal 299, ,363 39,714 18, ,456 70,839 92,008 85,598 25,717 18,926 24,580 14,315 Pulses Peas 2, , Chick peas 14,685 4, ,783 3, H. bean 2,796 1, , G. peas 4,023 1, ,673 1, Lentils Subtotal 23,858 7, ,508 5, ,100 1, Oil seeds Linseed Sesame 15,563 6, ,563 6, Groundnut 3,062 1,877 2,962 1, Subtotal 19,108 8,477 3,044 1, ,563 6, Grand Total 342, ,978 42,991 20, ,174 76, ,571 92,065 28,107 20,018 24,598 14,324 Source: MOA 6

7 Projections on the expected harvest are complicated by the fact that in Eritrea, numbers to indicate area planted are subjective and yield figures are not the result of crop-cutting samples. In addition, good rainfall does not necessarily ensure a good harvest. On the positive side, the heavy rains mean most dams and reservoirs are full, chronically low water tables in many areas will rise, and grazing and browsing possibilities will improve. On the other hand, the hailstorms and stones, water logging, and flooding have damaged crops and property and led to excessive weed growth. Other variables that affect production outcomes include: the availability of labor for weeding and harvesting; the continuation of the rains until the end of September, especially in Gash Barka and parts of Debub; and the secession of rains on time to let farmers harvest their crops. Farmers also worry that lack of oxen, large areas that have remained idle due to land mines, and a shortage of tractors will hurt this year s production. 3. Demographic Trends 3.1. Movements of IDPs There has been no major movement recently of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).. About 70,000 IDPs, including expellees, are not able to return home and are accommodated in 10 camps in Gash Barka and Debub Zones. Since the end of June 2001, 170,000 IDPs have returned to their home areas Repatriation of Refugees Preparations are underway for the resumption of the voluntary repatriation of the remaining 41,000 refugees from Sudan before the end of the year. Because these refugees are arriving in December, they will require support until the next harvest in December In addition to the 41,000, another 90,000 refugees are planned for repatriation during This means for the year 2002, more than 200,000 persons will mostly depend on food aid. The 200,000 people include the 70,000 IDPs in camps, 62,000 refugees that will return from Sudan before the end of 2001, and an additional 90,000 that will follow during