Fixed and mobile voice services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis,

Transcription

1 Research forecast report Fixed and mobile voice services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis, Stephen Sale and Rupert Wood July 2010

2 Contents [1] 2 Contents Slide no. 4. Document map Executive summary 5. Executive summary 6. Executive summary 7. Document map Recommendations 8. Recommendations [1] 9. Recommendations [2] 10. Document map Forecast 11. The voice market continues to suffer in the recession: total retail revenue was down 8% in Total voice usage is no longer increasing in most countries, despite an accelerated decline in prices 13. Mobile voice appeared unstoppable a couple of years ago, but the dynamics of fixed mobile substitution are changing 14. As most mobile markets reach saturation, there are limited opportunities for customer acquisition 15. There will be limited line substitution as fixed voice becomes an adjunct of the broadband market 16. The speed of retail VoIP take-up will depend on local factors 17. Mobile usage will eventually continue its advance, albeit at less dramatic levels 18. The extent to which mobile usage will increase can be described in terms of the price elasticity of demand Slide no. 19. Price reductions will continue, but mobile operators will need to preserve voice margins 20. Mobile voice ARPU will continue to fall, even in markets that show potential for strong traffic growth 21. Mobile voice retail revenue is now in long-term decline, and will no longer compensate for losses in fixed voice 22. MTR decreases will compound the sector s problems: they will have a severe impact on service revenue 23. Document map Market definition 24. This report provides forecasts for fixed and mobile voice services in 16 individual markets 25. The data annex provides the following measures 26. Our forecasts build on Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly market data 27. The metrics we track offer insight into the dynamics of voice markets and are used as the basis for forecasting 28. We have a sound knowledge of markets, which supports our comprehensive forecast model 29. Voice forecast model outline 30. Document map Authors and copyright

3 Contents [2] 3 Contents Slide no. 31. Authors and acknowledgements 32. Copyright and disclaimer 33. Document map List of figures and tables 34. List of figures and tables [1] 35. List of figures and tables [2] 36. Document map Research from Analysys Mason 39. Consulting from Analysys Mason

4 Document map 33 Document map: List of figures and tables Executive summary Recommendations Forecast Market drivers and inhibitors Market definition Authors and copyright List of figures and tables

5 List of figures and tables [1] 34 List of figures and tables Figure 1: Average mobile usage per active subscriber for selected markets, Figure 2: Mobile voice ARPU for selected markets, Figure 3: Fixed and mobile voice retail revenue in Western Europe, Figure 4: Fixed and mobile voice retail revenue in Western Europe, 1Q Q 2009 Figure 5: Total MoU per capita for selected markets, 1Q Q 2009 Figure 6: Western European average fixed, mobile and total retail revenue per minute, 1Q Q 2009 Figure 7: Mobile share of traffic in selected markets, 1Q Q 2009 Figure 8: Mobile price premium in selected markets, 1Q Q 2009 Figure 9: Contract and prepaid net additions in Western Europe, 3Q Q 2009 Figure 10: Contract and prepaid net additions in Western Europe, Figure 11: Fixed voice channels in Western Europe, Figure 12: Fixed voice penetration in selected markets, Figure 13: Household penetration of retail VoIP as a primary voice service in selected markets, 2009 and 2015 Figure 14: Mobile share of traffic in selected markets, Figure 15: Outgoing voice traffic in Western Europe,

6 List of figures and tables [2] 35 List of figures and tables Figure 16: Average mobile MoU and retail revenue per minute in Western European markets at 4Q 2009 Figure 17: Price elasticity of mobile voice in selected markets, Figure 18: Indicative ppm trends Figure 19: Average mobile usage per active subscriber for selected markets, Figure 20: Mobile voice ARPU for selected markets, Figure 21: Fixed and mobile voice retail revenue in Western Europe, Figure 22: Mobile voice service revenue in Western Europe, Figure 23: Terminated mobile minutes in Western Europe, Figure 24: Countries covered individually in this report Figure 25: Synopsis of dataset Figure 26: Key metrics for historical and forecast data Figure 27: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions Figure 28: Outline of the voice forecast model with derived metrics and cross-checks

7 Document map 36 Document map: Executive summary Recommendations Forecast Market drivers and inhibitors Market definition Authors, copyright and key to acronyms List of figures and tables

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