National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call

Transcription

1 Listen to the recording here to follow along with the presentation: F3494_ _ &bridge=697620& =&accountid = National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call September 24, :00 AM EST

2 NCR HUG Call Details Conference Call Details: 1. Dial-in: Conference code: Join the Meeting through Adobe Connect: (No Registration Required) Click here to access the Adobe Connect meeting The call will be recorded and the audio will be combined with the presentation and sent out at the end of the call. The audio and presentation will also be made available on the following websites: NCR HUG Use HAZUS page - NCR HUG LinkedIn page - Region-HAZUS-User ?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr 2

3 Agenda Welcome + Announcements Upcoming 8 th Annual Hazus User Conference Atlanta, Georgia December 9-11, 2015 Hazus Earthquake Seismic Risk Assessment for Cairo, Egypt Jesse Rozelle, FEMA Region VIII Hazus Data Preparation and Data Exporter Tool Casey Zuzak, FEMA Region VIII Request for Volunteers Next NCR HUG Call Adjourn 3

4 Announcements Upcoming HAZUS Courses at EMI The Emergency Management Institute (EMI) has the following HAZUS training course available: E179 Application of Hazus-MH for Disaster Operations: September 28-October 1, 2015 E190 ArcGIS for Emergency Managers: October 5-8, 2015 E170 Hazus-MH for Hurricane: October 26-29, 2015 E174 Hazus-MH for Earthquake: November 16-19, 2015 E313 Basic Hazus-MH: December 7-10, 2015 E176 Hazus-MH for Floodplain Managers: December 14-17, 2015 E317 Comprehensive Data Management for Hazus-MH: January 4-7, 2016 Please note that enrollment is closed for each course, 6 weeks prior to the course! To apply for a HAZUS training course, please visit: To enroll, download the Admission Application or contact the HAZUS Training Specialist at EMI: Jordan Manos Jordan.manos@fema.dhs.gov For further information on registration, please visit training.fema.gov/emiweb 4

5 Announcements 8 th Annual Hazus User Conference Hosted by the Georgia Hazus User Group in Atlanta Georgia December 9-11, 2015 Location: CDC Conference Center Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA Registration is free and you can reserve your ticket at Theme: "Hazus and the Emergency Management Life Cycle: From Practice to Policy." Abstracts: Participants and attendees are encouraged to submit presentation abstracts that address this theme and any of the four phases of the Emergency Management Life Cycle Submissions can incorporate Hazus-related applications such as but not limited to: the use of Hazus in flood, earthquake, or hurricane studies; international applications of Hazus; academic uses; or enhancements of Hazus hazard and exposure inputs. Details for submitting an abstract: Abstracts should be around 150 words in length and submissions should also include the presenter s complete contact information and a brief biography All abstract submissions should be ed to the Hazus Outreach Team at hazus@arcaspicio.com and must be received no later than October 1st, Stay Connected to the Hazus Community through this website, on LinkedIn or follow us on Twitter@HazusCommunity to get the latest news about Hazus and the 2015 Conference! 5

6 New Geospatial Resources and Information! Crowd Sourced Wildfire Web Map eader&utm_campaign=arcwatch_sep_2015 Mapping Hurricane Katrina s Aftermath New online tool helps reduce flood impact GIS Discussions: Compute watershed grids in ArcGIS: fill, flow direction... Discussion - Cities at Risk - New model says world cities face expected losses of $4.6 trillion in economic output over the next decade as a result of natural or manmade catastrophes. Article - Discussion - 6

7 Hazus Earthquake Seismic Risk Assessment for Cairo, Egypt ESRI International Users Conference, San Diego July 23, 2015 Jesse Rozelle FEMA Region VIII GIS Coordinator FEMA MOTF (Modeling Task Force) SME

8 Hazus Outline Background International Methodology Cairo Risk Assessment Study Hazard Inventory Vulnerability Results-Demo 1992 Earthquake Calibration Cairo Probabilistic Losses Alternative Futures Scenarios

9 Hazus Risk Assessment Tool Earthquake, flood and hurricane wind modules Developed in conjunction with the National Institute of Building Sciences Runs on ESRI ArcGIS 10 platform-free 60 day evaluations Largest extension of ArcGIS Over 200 data layers all open source

10 Hazus\GIS Results identify specific and general vulnerabilities Visually displays impacts to key decision makers and the public Calculates scientificallydefensible damages, economic losses, and mitigation benefits Facilitates a risk-based approach to prioritize mitigation strategies that maximizes the return on investment

11 Hazus MH Features Earthquake Flood Hurricane

12 Hazus is Multidisciplinary Subject Matter Experts/User Groups GIS experience Engineering expertise Hazard information (seismologist, geologist, meteorologists) Social scientist (housing) Emergency management community Decision/policy makers

13 Brief History Project started back in 1992 Replace black box Provide national capabilities Earthquake model functional since ,000 s of HAZUS users Local, State, & Federal Agencies Private Sector Universities HAZUS Quake Quakuake e Wind Winind Flood FlFloodo od Surge SuSurrge HAZMAT HAZAZMATA T Built Buiuilltt Environment Envnviirronmonmentent Hazazarard Hazard Identification Hazard Identification IIdentdentiiffiicatatiionon Vulnerability Vululnernerabiabilliitty Assessment Vulnerability Assesessmentent Assessment Social Socociialal Impact IImpacpactt Economic Economonomiic Social Impact Impact IImpacpactt Business Bususiinesness Interruption IIntntererrruptuptiionon Economic Impact Business Interruption 3r3rdparparty Models 3rd-party Modelod els

14 Nationwide Databases Demographics Population, Employment, Housing Building Stock Residential, Commercial, Industrial Essential Facilities Hospitals, Schools, Police Stations, Fire Stations Transportation Highways, Bridges, Railways, Tunnels, Airports, Ports and Harbors, Ferry Facilities Utilities Waste Water, Potable Water, Oil, Gas, Electric Power, Communication Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities Dams and Levees, Nuclear Facilities, Hazardous Material Sites, Military Installations

15 HAZUS Software-Hardware

16 HAZUS Applications

17 International Applications: GIS based method for exporting the Hazus Earthquake Model for Global Applications

18 Concept Utilize Hazus earthquake model outside the U.S. Start with a Proxy Building Stock and replace with local information. Focus limited resources towards developing inventories, engineering parameters and hazard data rather than new software. Prevents duplication of effort

19 Developing International Building Inventories EERI s World Housing Encyclopedia Hazus Advanced Engineering Building Module (AEBM), included with program Hazus New Building Type Wizard, included with program Hazus Comprehensive Data Management System (CDMS), lap top based data collection interface ROVER (Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk) data collection tool

20 Integration of Data Sources LANDSCAN 2012 Global Population Database for Egypt 1 km grids (10 km and 100 km where pop <1,000) Oak Ridge National Labs Demographics: Age and Male/Female provided by City of Cairo

21 Egypt Study Region

22 Part 1 of 3: Inventory In general, earthquake results are sensitive to four categories of inventory parameters (among others) Location (longitude & latitude, whether site-specific or census-tract (grid) based) Classification with respect to earthquake vulnerability (facility type, capacity, building type & other construction characteristics) that affect seismic performance Valuation (cost of repair and replacement, business parameters) Societal (number of occupants)

23 NRIAG Inventory: City of Cairo Parcel Data Includes: Construction Type Condition Number of Stories Year Built Limitations: Building Area Estimated from Lot Area and Zoning Density Building Value Estimated from Default Replacement Building Counts = Parcel Counts (1 per Parcel)

24 NRIAG-City of Cairo Parcel Data

25 City of Cairo Inventory Summary Height Summary Low Rise (1-3 floors) 19,914 Med Rise (4-7 floors) 18,349 High Rise (8+ floors) 6,810 45,073 LandScan (2012) City of 7,877,202 Cairo LandScan (2012) Asyut 5,007,368 LandScan (2012) 70,499,858 Greater Egypt LandScan (2012) Egypt 83,384,428 City of Cairo Occupancy Parcel Count Replacement Value (USD) Content Value (USD) BldgArea (meters) AGR1 111 $ 224,911,029 $ 224,911, ,112 COM1 137 $ 145,406,213 $ 145,406, ,378 COM2 222 $ 285,882,495 $ 285,882, ,726 COM3 310 $ 590,584,532 $ 590,584,532 1,392,729 COM4 450 $ 1,494,492,916 $ 1,494,492,916 2,599,415 COM5 106 $ 1,562,137,759 $ 1,562,137,759 1,875,008 COM6 227 $ 1,891,639,392 $ 2,837,459,088 1,717,674 COM7 121 $ 375,793,373 $ 563,690, ,667 COM8 224 $ 1,469,589,019 $ 1,469,589,019 2,119,895 COM9 46 $ 137,182,157 $ 137,182, ,917 EDU1 1,446 $ 6,368,935,108 $ 6,368,935,108 11,164,317 EDU2 32 $ 269,929,156 $ 404,893, ,884 GOV1 367 $ 1,127,769,037 $ 1,127,769,037 2,830,936 GOV2 150 $ 1,337,088,040 $ 2,005,632,060 1,743,133 IND1 301 $ 1,651,734,647 $ 2,477,601,970 3,861,691 IND2 28 $ 55,528,269 $ 83,292, ,025 IND3 175 $ 4,924,440,761 $ 7,386,661,142 10,021,067 IND4 671 $ 11,494,807,301 $ 17,242,210,951 16,946,973 IND5 18 $ 563,401,486 $ 845,102,229 1,056,578 REL1 2,070 $ 4,288,593,701 $ 4,288,593,701 7,420,606 RES1 276 $ 13,822,336 $ 6,911, ,382 RES3A 94 $ 21,331,943 $ 10,665,971 57,190 RES3B 735 $ 246,808,548 $ 123,404, ,649 RES3C 1,678 $ 1,975,665,298 $ 987,832,649 3,355,153 RES3D 16,780 $ 31,976,259,938 $ 15,988,129,969 57,739,123 RES3E 15,051 $ 63,722,532,475 $ 31,861,266, ,226,069 RES3F 3,034 $ 30,150,697,609 $ 15,075,348,805 52,867,357 RES4 213 $ 998,765,660 $ 499,382,830 1,909,473

26 Part 2 of 3: Vulnerability Model earthquake building types for Cairo from Construction Type Seismic Code adoption history compared to year built, construction type and condition Limitations: Assumes enforcement Condition not the same as material quality

27 Seismic Code History in Egypt 1989-first code to consider seismic loading, crude percentage 1993-after 1992 event, offered more building specific design levels 2004-enhancements, follows UBC 1997 framework Egyptian code practice (ECP-201) ECP (1993) ECP (2008) Pre-Code < 1993 (no code) Low Code (UBC, Zone 1-2) Moderate Code >2004 (UBC, Zone 3), Quality 1 only

28 Concrete C3 - L,M,H Concrete Frame with Unreinforced Masonry Infill Walls Non-ductile concrete frame carries vertical load Unreinforced masonry infill walls provide lateral shear strength C3L,M,H Pre-Code used extensively in Egypt

29 City of Cairo - Building Type Mapping Concrete Moment Frame Concrete Frame wurm Infill Unreinforced Masonry CITY OF CAIRO - SEISMIC BUILDING TYPE AND DESIGN LEVEL SUMMARY Bldg_Type Design Count Replacement Value (USD) Content Value (USD) Bldg Area (sqmeters) C1H LC 1,282 $ 8,668,856,757 $ 5,998,067,407 14,604,349 C1H MC 21 $ 921,829,551 $ 1,247,405,285 1,423,818 C1L LC 2,172 $ 4,868,350,870 $ 2,678,764,880 8,753,872 C1L MC 1,065 $ 5,499,160,597 $ 6,855,587,029 11,913,205 C1M LC 4,997 $ 19,857,842,834 $ 10,685,137,597 33,462,673 C1M MC 42 $ 1,146,134,708 $ 1,357,204,013 1,951,012 Sub Total 9,579 $ 40,962,175,316 $ 28,822,166,211 72,108,928 C3H PC 5,507 $ 37,039,405,295 $ 22,928,332,203 62,397,588 C3L PC 9,245 $ 22,473,973,067 $ 15,718,728,719 39,236,676 C3M PC 13,129 $ 50,928,540,287 $ 32,116,925,416 85,405,174 Sub Total 27,881 $ 110,441,918,649 $ 70,763,986, ,039,438 URML PC 7,200 $ 16,644,586,614 $ 15,671,556,589 28,688,383 URMM PC 413 $ 1,317,049,616 $ 837,260,368 2,174,379 Sub Total 7,613 $ 17,961,636,231 $ 16,508,816,956 30,862,762 TOTAL 45,073 $ 169,365,730,197 $ 116,094,969, ,011,128

30 Part 3 of 3: Hazard Data NRIAG Probabilistic Hazard Mapping Soils Amplification Epicenters Faults USGS 1992 Cairo EQ ShakeMap

31 1992 M5.8 Event Calibration M. Degg (1993) Paper Daytime event 550+ fatalities 10,000 injured 1,087 schools closed 300 bldgs total or partial collapse 6,500 bldgs severe damage 40,000 homeless Severe damage at Barnasht and Gerza Heliopolis 14 story apartment collapse 100 severe school injuries

32 USGS ShakeMap Atlas/PAGER page/centennial #summary

33 Earthquake Scenarios

34 City of Cairo Preliminary Results-Casualties

35 City of Cairo Preliminary Results-Damage by Construction Type

36 City of Cairo Preliminary Results-Economic Losses

37 Casualty Parameter Modifications-Collapse Rates for Completely Damaged Structures Collapse rates for complete damage state drives much of the fatalities and severe injuries. U.S. collapse rates are between 3 and 15% for completely damaged structures.

38 Site Specific Level of Loss Estimation Detail Now Available for Cairo

39 Alternative Futures-Mitigation ara Introduction and Applications st, 2010 HAZUS MH: Ank June 21 Concrete Shear Walls Concrete Frame with URM Infill

40 Questions?

41 Hazus Data Preparation and Data Exporter Tool Casey Zuzak FEMA Region VIII

42 Losses Avoided Study Reducing Losses through Higher Regulatory Standards Goal: to quantitatively analyze floodplain regulations that are, or would be successful if implement. Floodway and Floodplain Development Freeboard Critical Facility Regulation Erosion Setbacks Scenario: Floodplain Development IN THE 2013 FLOOD EVENT

43 Data Preparation Tool Create geospatial tool to prepare, analyze and export data Data Preparation Tool Data Export Tool Data Analysis Tool Data Preparation Tool: prepares the data for analysis and if structure data are incomplete, utilizes assumptions to estimate values for foundation type and building square footage

44 Hazus UDF Inputs Hazus UDF Needs Data Source Secondary Source SQFT Imagery Perimeter * Number of Stories (required) NO Year Built Imagery (required) NO First Floor Height (FFE) Cost Foundation Type (built before or after NFIP Entry) RS Means $/sqft by Occupancy Type * CPI Factor * County Mod Factor UDF YES YES Contents Cost Percent of Cost YES Foundation Type Occupancy Type City or County Parcel or Building Footprint Data Occupancy Type, within the SFHA, Built before or after NFIP Entry Google Earth/Google Streetview (required) YES YES Num of Stories Occupancy Type and Square footage YES SFHA FEMA N/A (required) NO NFIP Entery Hazus Local Flood Regulations (required) NO DDFs Hazus USACE/FEMA Building Casey.Zuzak@fema.dhs.gov Sciences OPT

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47 Data Export Tool Data Export Tool: prepares the dataset to have the attributes necessary sary for FEMA s User Defined Facility (UDF) database Casey.Zuzak@fema.dhs.gov

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49 Data Analysis Tool Data Analysis Tool: ol runs scenarios using year flood and 2013 flood event data plus regulatory information to estimate regulatory losses avoided

50 Data Visualization

51 Data Links FEMA Region VIII FTP site: /data.femadata.co n8/ Losses s Avoided Study dy: https ps://data.femadata.com/region8/coloradoflooding_2 /data.femadata.com/reg 013/Losses_Avoided_Study s_a dy/ Hazus UDF tool: 013/Losses_Avoided_Study/Hazus_UDF_Tool ses_a d_st ol/ FEMA RVIII Hazus Level el 2 SOP: ://data.femadata.com/motf/sops/hazus_level_2 _Site_Specific_Flood_Analysis.pdf ific_flood_analysis.pdf Casey.Zuzak@fema.dhs.gov

52 New Call Format! How do you want to improve our monthly user group calls? The current format is minimally interactive. Please provide your ideas on how to increase participation and discussion. Suggestions: Provide a Q & A on a specific topic Include an open discussion about recent project, study, article, etc. related to risk assessment Include an open discussion about the use of Hazus and other tools to visually communicate risk Other ideas? 52

53 Next Call Thursday October 29, 2015 at 10:00 AM EST Use the same number and conference code for each call: Call and enter this conference code # **Request volunteer for next month s presentation HAZUS / Risk Assessment project HAZUS How to presentation Meeting notes and an updated presentation with audio will be sent out after this call Adjourn 53