Measuring or modelling complementing or contradicting

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1 Measuring or modelling complementing or contradicting Walter Seidling, Tanja Sanders, Uwe Fischer Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems

2 How can we bring together empirists and modellers in functional biodiversty research? Jeltsch et al (Basic and Applied Ecology): Improving our understanding of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and our capacity to inform ecosystem management requires an integrated framework for functional biodiversity [and ecosystem] research Advice for empirists: Advice for modellers: Seite 2 XX.XX.201X 43rd Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland

3 ICP Forests largely known as a measuring programme since 1985: since 1995: slide 3 Estimation of Crown Condition on Level I (almost 6500 plots at maximum; also soil and foliar c : Soil and Foliar Survey on Level I plots [biodiversity from EU BioSoil] Level II (Intensive) Monitoring Programme with c. 860 plots at maximum: Tanja TFM MM Crown Condition Foliar Analysis Tree Growth Ground Floor Vegetation Visible Ozone Injury Phenology Soil Solid Phase Analysis Soil Solution Chemistry Deposition Measurements Ambient Air Measurements Meteorology Litterfall

4 Important prerequisites for such a Monitoring Programme - Data acquisition rules for more than 500 parameters: Extensive Manual - Adequate data management tools including an adequate database - Continuation and further development of standard evaluation routines for administrative reporting - Scientifically well-based integrated evaluations Seite TFM M&M

5 Data evaluation needs modelling ICP F: Information on real forest ecosystems: (Level I: 16 x 16 km 2 grid, c plots Level II: max. 860 case studies in Europe Measured parameters (need a concept about the reality and measuring device) Statistical modelling Process-based ecosystem-related models Conceptual models Statistical relationships New conditioned numeric information New qualitative information like forest type Seite ICP M&M Theoretically wellbased general models

6 Total deposition = wet deposition + dry deposition Wet deposition is collected (weekly) biweekly monthly with bulk samplers as throughfall deposition and open-field deposition according to the ICP Forests Manual There is still no method to sample the gaseous and particular components of dry deposition Therefore: a canopy budget model (cbm) is used to calculate total deposition based on Ulrich ( ), Draaijers & Erisman (1995). In order to conduct this cbm both is needed: open-field and throughfall deposition in high quality; otherwise e.g. negative dry deposition factors occur, which is physically not possible (and can be taken as an indicator of poor data quality). Seite TFM M&M

7 Total deposition = wet deposition + dry deposition What could be done with poor data: i) negative values have been set to 0 and model processing was continued is pragmatic, but model results can also be considered as poor, ii) analysis of raw data and adjustment/correction of raw data in case of implausible values is performed more thorough and may initiate a feedback process leading to a generally improved data quality. What you need is an ion balance model with certain requirement concerning the data e.g. conductivity measurements Conclusion from this example: Measuring and Modelling has to be considered as supplementary Seite 7 XX.XX.201X TFM M&M

8 Comparison between measured and modelled data at German Level II plots for the year 2009 CBM Data CBM: ICP Forests, Thünen Institute Data PINETI (UBA): Data unpublished, under discussion slide 8 Tanja TFM M&M

9 Modelled annual precipitation 2004 for Germany and measured precipitation at Level II sites Throughfall precipitation [mm] in 2004 measured modelled slide 9 Tanja Measured generally lower than modelled and break at high values -> This might be one cause for the missing conformity of measured and modelled deposition values TFM M&M

10 How can we bring together empirists and modellers in functional biodiversty research? Jeltsch et al (Basic and Applied Ecology, condensed): Advice for empirists: - open data access (data sharing, publication policy) - appropriate documentation of data and metadata incl. sampling design - identify/quantify measurement errors - possibly adapt monitoring according to model results Advice for modellers: - check applicability of existing models - choose relevant and sensitive parameters - fill data gaps reasonably - identify need for further data gathering Seite 10 XX.XX.201X 43rd Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland

11 How can we bring together empirists and modellers in functional biodiversty research? Jeltsch et al Advice for modellers: - provide model descriptions understandable for non-modellers - refine models according to further needs General advice: - organize integrated research teams or evaluation panels with empirists and modellers - provide interdisziplinary training - look for the most optimal mix of monitoring, experiments, and modelling Seite 11 XX.XX.201X 43rd Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland

12 Measuring and modelling: joining the merits: Acknowledgments The different data sets were collected within ICP Forests, partly co-financed by the EU under its Scheme on the Protection of Forests against Air Pollution, the Forest Focus Regulation ( ), and under Life+ (FutMon) from