WFLOW :Flexible distributed open source hydrological modelling framework with applications in hydrological forecasting

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1 WFLOW :Flexible distributed open source hydrological modelling framework with applications in hydrological forecasting Jaap Schellekens and Albrecht Weerts, Deltares

distributed hydrological models, part of OpenStreams

2 D-Hydrology/WFLOW What is in a name OpenStreams Open source hydrological modelling components Wflow Open source distributed hydrological models, part of OpenStreams D-Hydrology Wflow Deltares release wrapped in Deltashell GUI (alpha stage)

3 D-Hydrology/WFLOW Sample Applications Research Ourthe / Greater Ourthe hourly Flood forecasting Meuse daily Flood risk Rhine daily Flood risk Schelde daily Flood risk Guinee daily Sediment Mexico daily Flood risk Azerbeidjan daily Water Resources Karasu (Turkey) daily Water resources/reservoirs Raba (Poland) hourly Flood forecasting Australia daily data assimilation Operational FEWS Bolivia daily Flood forecasting FEWS Colombia daily Flood & Drought forecasting FEWS Sava hourly (in progress) Flood forecasting GLOFFIS W3RA daily Flood forecasting Curacao hourly Flood forecasting Rhine hourly (in progress IMPREX) Flood & Drought forecasting New Zealand daily Water Quality

4 Why? Distributed data sources have allowed us to move to spatially explicit modelling.

6 Distributed gridded models Gridded Inputs Precipitation Digital elevation model Gridded Outputs - Discharge - Water levels - Snowmelt - Mean temperature Landuse map Reference evaporation

7 Characteristics of the Wflow model(s) Based on PCRaster /Python framework (same as SPHY, LISFLOOD, PCR-GLOBWB, iframework) Different hydrological concepts available HBV SBM(2) W3RA GR4 TopoFlex (beta) Different modules available: Routing Reservoirs Floodmaps Crop growth (WUR) Fully distributed model Connectivity via: BMI: NETCDF-CF Open standards

8 Characteristics of the Wflow model(s) Can be used for: Flow forecasting River basin modeling Scenario analysis (e.g. climate and/or landuse change) Easy to link to other models, like: FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) Sobek Dflow-FM -> vi BMI OpenDA -> via BMI WQ via Delwaq (OpenTracers) Crop growth -> via BMI Open source and freely available More information: Download from: Wflow_sbm Everybody can join the development!

9 Characteristics of the Wflow model(s) Super configurable! Each forcing/parameter can be redefined Goal is maximum use of available (satellite) data SWE from MODIS

11 Verification on different sources requires integrated modelling

12 Example: linked to dflow-fm for flash floods

13 Verification on different sources requires integrated modelling

14 Open Tracers Coupling of hydrology and water quality Hydrological model Post processing Pre processing Water quality model

15 Concept of OpenTracers 2 m 3 /s Wastewater discharge Upstream inflow 5 m 3 /s 20% wastewater 50% inflow 30% sub-catchment 3 m 3 /s Sub-catchment A In reality: time variation more boundaries / sources analysis along the entire river storage mixing

16 Rhine example

17 Example of source Alpine_Rhine in WFLOW

18 Rhine example TAM = Tracer assisted model Everybody can join the development!

19 2 november 2016

20 Initial state does matter 2 november 2016

21 FEWS-OpenDA-WFLOW Get the best state estimate at start of forecast by assimilating (streamflow/discharge or other) measurements for distributed models (at any scale) Visualize what is happening to the forecasters Take into account uncertainty in initial state (distributed) and combine with uncertainty in forecasted weather (distributed) Verification of improvements (to do)

Python WFLOW/OpenStreams HBV-96 distributed hydrological model Resolution 1km*1km Grid cell 95*90 Model Input SF,RF,T, EA HBV-96 model (Lindström et al.

22 Python WFLOW/OpenStreams HBV-96 distributed hydrological model Resolution 1km*1km Grid cell 95*90 Model Input SF,RF,T, EA HBV-96 model (Lindström et al. 1997) Source: modified after Solomatine and Shrestha 2009 & Rakovec et al Model State Discharge Routing SN, SM, UZ, LZ, WL, Q, IC Kinematic Wave model

23 Rakovec et al., 2015

24 Rakovec et al., 2015

g. Wflow) Hut et al., (2016) Weerts et al., (in prep., 2016) BMI=> http://csdms.colorado.

25 OpenDA-WFLOW OpenDA is an open source toolbox for data assimilation and parameter calibration in a generic modeling context. OpenDA Method (e.g. EnKF) Java BMI model Factory Java Thrift Java Client Thrift python Server BMI python Model (e.g. Wflow) Hut et al., (2016) Weerts et al., (in prep., 2016) BMI=> november 2016

26 Wednesday, November 02, 2016 X Nr of Ens

27 wflow_w3ra wflow_routing online/timestep based coupled ECMWF control forecast 1 day ahead as forcing Noise on precip. & temp. Experiment 1 few stations DEnKF Localization (autozhang) 64 ens. members Experiment 2 more stations SWE not updated reservoirs not modelled 2 november 2016

28 Dan River 2 november 2016

29 forecast-analysis (River flow) 2 november 2016

30 forecast-analysis (summed over 10 days) 2 november 2016

31 Major flood peak December 2015 (and subsequent state update) Update lasts 2 november 2016

32 forecast-analysis (Sr=surface runoff store) 2 november 2016

33 Example

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