The JRC research framework in support to EU CC policy

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1 Copenhagen, November Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation of Europe to Climate Change The JRC research framework in support to EU CC policy Carlo Lavalle European Commission Joint Research Centre carlo.lavalle@jrc.it

2 EU Climate Change Policy Copenhagen, November Reducing Climate Change Risk by MITIGATION ADAPTATION + Reducing & Avoiding GHG emissions Reducing Exposure & Vulnerability at the lowest cost & greatest benefit. Within the frame work of its mission, the JRC aims to develop reference knowledge, based on multi-disciplinary expertise, to ease the development of an EU climate change policy.

3 Adaptation: What can be done? Copenhagen, November Understanding and prediction of Climate Change. Special attention to extrem events Quantification of impacts at the continental, regional, and local levels (risk analysis) Historical trend analyses Data modelling Coupling with Regional Climate Models Analysis of adaptation measures strategies to prevent and reduce impacts and damages Management and preparedness (include modelling and scenario preparation). Focus on early warning systems Integration of all aspects related to adaptation to climate change into strategies for sustainable development.

4 Risk assessment for Natural Hazards The Approach Copenhagen, November Risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability Exposure Population Infrastructure Settlements Ecological assets. Vulnerability GDP/ capita Planning regulations Protection measures Warning systems Insurance mechanism Access to facilities Hazard Hazard degree Flood Drought Forest Fires Heatwaves Method of analysis Risk

EU Flood Risk Maps Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007 5 Exposure

f(damagecurves,gdprate) Flood depth maps for different

5 EU Flood Risk Maps Copenhagen, November Exposure Vulnerability flood hazard E = f(landuse,demography) V = f(damagecurves,gdprate) Flood depth maps for different return-periods High Flood Risk Areas Annual Average Damage Flood Risk Index

6 EU Forest Fire Risk Maps Copenhagen, November FIRE FREQUENCY Average number of fires per year ,000 1,001-4,860 NO FIRE DATA About 65,000 wildfires / year in EU About 500,000 hectares burned / year in EU WILDLAND FRACTION BURNED Total burned area / Year / Wildland area 0% 0.01% % 0.01% 0.02% % 0.02% % 0.04% % 0.10% % 0.20% % 0.45% % 1.07% % NO FIRE DATA Data from Member States (the EU Forest Fire Data Base, built upon the Common Core Database) + Model (European Forest Fire Information System) + Observed fires (remote sensing)

7 Heatwave Risk Map Copenhagen, November Heatwave Extent + Population Exposed + Population Number Vulnerable Population Group Vulnerable Population Exposure No. of people over 65 years exposed to HUMIDEX exceeding 35 during June, July and August 2003

8 European Drought Hazard Maps Copenhagen, November very wet very dry wetter normal drier Soil Water Stress from ECMWF ERA 40 meteo data 07/ /2002 daily top soil moisture daily top soil moisture anomaly

Impacts on Agriculture Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007 9 Simulated changes in the occurrence of the beginning of flowering (DVS100) of winter wheat between

9 Impacts on Agriculture Copenhagen, November Simulated changes in the occurrence of the beginning of flowering (DVS100) of winter wheat between * Days/year No data * - based on observed daily meteo data (MARS-STAT DB) Shift of flowering season Growing season lenght

10 Assessing future risks Copenhagen, November Flood & drought risk and climate change exposure vulnerability high-resolution climate information x European data on soils, land cover, river basins,... Member States data on river dimensions, discharges,... LISFLOOD flood hazard = flood risk

seasonal changes in mean discharge Simulations with

11 Climate change effect on river discharge: annual average and 100-year floods Copenhagen, November seasonal changes in mean discharge Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM HadAM3H/ HadCM3 (data from Prudence, DMI)

12 Climate change effect on low flows: Copenhagen, November change of mean annual 7-day minimum discharge Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM HadAM3H/ HadCM3 (data from Prudence, DMI)

Forest Fire Danger Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007 13 EUMed Countries (PT, ES, FR, IT, GR) Burned area &

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

13 Forest Fire Danger Copenhagen, November EUMed Countries (PT, ES, FR, IT, GR) Burned area & Seasonal Severity Rating Burned area (ha) 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , SSR Burned area SSR Fire Severity Index (Climate data from Prudence DMI)

Climate Change Hazard: Heat Wave Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007 14 Control Period 1961-1990 Scenario Period 2071-2100 Heat wave event defined

14 Climate Change Hazard: Heat Wave Copenhagen, November Control Period Scenario Period Heat wave event defined by HWDI of 7 continuous days during summer period Based on data from Danish Climate Centre (DMI) within the framework of the EU-project PRUDENCE

Monetary impacts of Climate Change Scenarios Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007

statistics Cost estimation made per land use classes, using approx.

measures Tentative estimate upper Danube: Current Climate: 100 Billion Euro

15 Monetary impacts of Climate Change Scenarios Copenhagen, November Change in annual precipitation Simulated flooded areas Flooded areas statistics Cost estimation made per land use classes, using approx. deoth-damage curves Next steps: include land use simulations and adaptation measures Tentative estimate upper Danube: Current Climate: 100 Billion Euro damage A2 Scenario ~40% increase in total damage Pilot area in the Upper Danube Preliminary draft results

Forest vulnerability and suitability Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007 16 Current and future habitat suitability distribution of European Common Beech (Fagus sylvatica, Fagaceae) Regression tree

16 Forest vulnerability and suitability Copenhagen, November Current and future habitat suitability distribution of European Common Beech (Fagus sylvatica, Fagaceae) Regression tree Analysis Vegetation suitability model IPCC SRES A1B Scenario, vegetation shift projection under 710ppm CO 2, +2.8ºC Not suitable Loss of suitable habitat Gain of suitable habitat Stable habitat suitability Preliminary draft results

17 The aim of adaptation: Reduce the risk Copenhagen, November Hazard + Vulnerability = Risk p =1 (100yr) Risk Vulnerability Hazard + Adaptation = Low vulnerability Low risk p =1 (100yr) Vulnerability Adaptation

18 Integrated land management tools Copenhagen, November >10 years 5 years 1-2 years 3-30 days Few hours Alert MOLAND LISFLOOD EFICS Spatial Planning Forest Management Land Management EFFIS EFAS EDO Regulatory plans Early Warning Forecast EFAS=European Flood Alert System LISFLOOD=Grid-based catchment model EDO=European Drought Observatory EFICS=European Forest Inform. and Comm. System Component of EU Forest Focus EFFIS=European Forest Fire Information System MOLAND=Monitoring Land Use Dynamics Territorial Integration

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8/23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02

Flood GIS Realtime H-Q data 2500 2000 Historical Data 1500 1000 500 0 8/23/02 0:00

19 /23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague European Flood Alert System EFAS Copenhagen, November EU Flood GIS Realtime H-Q data Historical Data /23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo -Data EFAS Reports Expert Knowledge of Member States min area = 50 km²

EDO European Drought Observatory Copenhagen, 27-28

20 EDO European Drought Observatory Copenhagen, November Soil moisture 7 day trend wetter drier

21 Floods and scenario modeling Elbe catchment Copenhagen, November Land use Reference Land Use Polders Reservoirs 10% reduction

22 European Forest Fire Information System EFFIS Copenhagen, November Meteorological Risk Vegetation Stress Risk Structural Risk Fire Potential Index

23 Damage assessment Copenhagen, November Floods and industrial installations Forest Fires and NATURA 2000 sites

24 Conclusions Next steps at JRC Copenhagen, November Key Scientific Challenges: include other SRES scenarios and RCMs better quantification of current and future vulnerability development of high-resolution land use scenarios model validation with high-quality observations & data sets formal treatment of uncertainty in the processing chain Opportunities: Direct inputs to EU policies (e.g. White paper on adaptation) Participation in experts networks Collaboration with MS organisations

Pan-European flood hazard and risk mapping under current climate and climate change: first experiences and challenges

Pan-European flood hazard and risk mapping under current climate and climate change: first experiences and challenges Ad de Roo Peter Salamon, Katalin Bodis, Jose Barredo, Luc Feyen, Milan Kalas, Rutger