Global Cement Volume Forecast 1H2019

Transcription

1 CW Research Webinar presentation Macro update Global Cement Volume Forecast 1H2019 Methodology Volume Forecast GCVFR outlook report Closing remarks About CW Group 1

2 About Cement, building materials, and construction Steel, metals, and mining Chemicals Seasoned experts Business and technical Network and access Proprietary data Advisory CW Group Dry bulking cargo, port and infrastructure Research 2 Power, energy, and solid fuels News & Media

3 Advisory Strategic advisory Transaction support M&A and due dilligence Management consulting 3

4 Research Syndicated market study report Commodity price assessments Reference forecasts Data and chartbook 4

5 News & Media Market reporting services Meetings Online data access Newsletters and publications 5

6 Global Volume Forecast Report: 1H2019 Twice-per-year update of projections for cement volumes at the national, regional and global level Informed by primary and secondary research Covers 57 national cement markets Global five-year forecast for cement market data by market for core markets and long-term forecast by 2050 Analysis of individual cement markets, key market-moving events, capacity changes, drivers and outlook 6

7 GCVFR Methodology CW qualitative research CW qualitative research CW qualitative research Statistical Analysis Technical Analysis CW iterative forecast & revision CW country cement trade analysis Global Cement Volume Forecast Report Bottom up manufacturing capacity Consumption Production Utilization rate 7

8 What does it include? Contains the CW Group s outlook - National cement consumption - Per capita cement consumption - National cement production - Industry-wide utilization rate - Cement production capacity Projections for volumes - All world, all regions, 5 years and long-term forecast - Details on 57 individual, key cement markets Twice-yearly update - March each year quantitative update - October each year extended update (with qualitative analysis for key countries) For more details visit: 8

9 Subsequent revisions downgrade outlook for global economy World Economic Outlook (Real GDP, 2018 YoY % growth, IMF 2017, 2018 updates) April 2019 January 2019 October 2018 World 1,8% Advanced economies 1,3% Euro area 3,3% o o Trade friction created the new barriers imposed on the circulation of goods between China and United States and tighter financial conditions Lower consumer and business confidence, uncertainty over Brexit and the Italian debt and financial risks. Emerging market and developing economies Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 1,5% 4,4% o o Lower demand for commodities and depreciation of local currencies Downgrade on oil prices and weak oil output growth, US sanctions on Iran, and geopolitical tensions Sub-saharan Africa 3,5% o Impact of lower oil prices in the Angolan and Nigerian economies 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 9 Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook

10 Cement demand in change in cement demand for main markets (growth YoY%) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 10

11 China will continue to lose share of global cement demand Change in cement demand from 2013 through 2023 (Consumption in million tons; per capita consumption in kg) F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F China Consumption World Ex-China Consumption Global per capita 11

12 Cement demand growth loses steam in F change in cement demand (growth YoY%) -6% 11% 12 2

13 Turkey s cement market suffered the widest adjustment 2019F change in cement demand, forecast revision (growth YoY%) South Korea 1H2019 2H2018 China 1H2019 2H2018 Iran Kenya Tunisia United Kingdom India Hungary Thailand Iraq Poland Saudi Arabia Spain Turkey 13-2% 3% 8% 13% -12% -2% 8%

14 Africa and Asia Ex-China lead growth on cement demand cement demand growth by region (growth YoY%) Eastern Europe North America Western Europe China Middle East Asia Ex-China Latin America Africa 14

15 2019 will witness the largest increment in capacity for the next five years F Capacity additions (million tons, and % change) 6500 Global Capacity Net additions 4,0% Global ,0% 0,0% F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F -2,0% Global Ex-China Capacity Net additions 7,0% Global ex- China ,0% 3,0% 1,0% F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F -1,0%

16 How will per capita consumption change by 2050? Cement Demand China Global ex-china - 39% % 2050 Cement Consumption per capita (kg) 16

17 Downward revisions on the outlook of the global economy raise fears of a new recession Cement demand performed well in Asia ex- China during The region is expected to maintain its global prominence on consumption growth at the global level Capacity increase to decline outside China after 2019, while China continues to reduce its output potential Contact us inquiries@cwgrp.com Robert Madeira, CW Managing Director and Head of Research: rm@cwgrp.com Carolina Pereira, CW Business Analyst: cp@cwgrp.com Website: 17