Findings Deliverables

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Ophelia Berry
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1 Impacts of Climate Change on Transboundary Water Treaties/ Sharing : A Case Study of Kabul River basin, Afghanistan Findings Deliverables Presented by : Fahima Sadeqinazhad Partner: Devendra M Amatya 4th Dec 2018, Almaty

2 Outline Review of Objectives and Scope of study Objectives Study area, Methodology Actual Result and Deliverables, Research Policy and programmatic outcome, Publication, Data Generated and ways to Calibrate with other granites Development Impacts Conclusion and recommendation

Afghanistan- Pakistan Environmental Cooperation. 2.

3 Project objectives: The specific objectives are as followings: 1. Identifications of suggestions for an integration of trans-boundary water issues in the Afghanistan- Pakistan Environmental Cooperation. 2. To allocate environmental flows requirement in the reservoirs operation policy. 3. To estimate the impact of climate change on hydropower, irrigation and for environmental flows demand.

More than 7 million people in Afghanistan part, which encompass 23 percent of the Afghanistan population, live in the Kabul River Basin (KRB).

4 Study Area Afghanistan and Pakistan share at least nine rivers. Kabul River, which later joins the Indus River, is one of the most important rivers and a potential source of hydropower for both countries. More than 7 million people in Afghanistan part, which encompass 23 percent of the Afghanistan population, live in the Kabul River Basin (KRB). On the Pakistani side of the basin, the river is a source for irrigation purposes in the remote and mountainous Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province. The main source of the Kabul River is from the glaciers and snow of the Hindu Kush mountains. The river represents 26 percent of Afghanistan s water resources.

Methodology Data Acquisition & Preprocessing Analyze Trans boundary Water 1 Estimation of (EFR) Challenges 2 3 Analyze and Evaluate Climate Change Impacts STAGES OF WATER CONFLICT TRANS EFR MAGICC5.

5 Methodology Data Acquisition & Preprocessing Analyze Trans boundary Water 1 Estimation of (EFR) Challenges 2 3 Analyze and Evaluate Climate Change Impacts STAGES OF WATER CONFLICT TRANS EFR MAGICC5.3 -SENGEN Adversarial Integrative Reflexive Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) Range of Variability Analysis (RVA) Select Emission Scenarios Climate variable times series (P, T) Scoping and Significance of Benefit Sharing Scenarios Determine Magnitude of Baskets of Benefits CROPWAT WEAP OPERATIONAL MODULE Downscaling Climate Variable Water Conflict Management and Cooperation Strategy Generate stream flow & Calibration and validation of stream flow Adaptation scenarios Impacts of climate change on hydropower, irrigation and environmental flows demand

6 Actual Result and Deliverables Training 11 -Number of Training organized (GIS, Methods Irrigation, Hydrologists software,etc ) 78 Female Student, teachers and researchers were trained 218 Male Student, teachers and researchers were trained Research Policy and programmatic outcome Conferences 21 -Number Conferences where organized and attended 3 Conferences for Policy makes, Scientists, Local organizations, Universities, Local people 18 Conferences were attended Policy Brief Climate Change and Trans boundary water Policy Brief Impact of Climate change were presented to Policy makers, NGO s, individual researchers Through our program: Source of climate change funding were introduces to Government bodies, NGO s, individual researchers TB water cooperation mechanism were presented to Government bodies, NGO s, individual Face to face meeting with GOV officials regarding the Climate change impact and TB water cooperation

7 Actual Result and Deliverables Research Publications:

8 Trust Building Degree of Conflict Mutual Interests Pakistan Benefit Sharing Framework in Trans-boundary River Basins Despite so many tangible donor supports in the basin, still process of mutual cooperation is in the failure stage due to lack of trust between the countries. Capacity Building Afghanistan Cooperation Afghanistan / Pakistan Conceptual Diagram 2 (a)

9 Benefit Sharing Framework In Trans-boundary River Basins

Actual Result and Deliverables (Papers On Hand) Average annual maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase in all three future time period, with lower increase in the near future and

10 Actual Result and Deliverables (Papers On Hand) Average annual maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase in all three future time period, with lower increase in the near future and higher increase in the far future periods. The magnitude of increase of average annual minimum temperature is higher than average maximum temperature in a majority of the basins. Unlike temperature, precipitation shows different directions of change in the basin. Uncertainty exists in climate change projections dye to selection of climate change, downscaling/bias correction methods. Projected change in average annual Precipitation (%) in Emission scenarios Low emission scenarios RCP4.5 High emission scenarios RCP % 32% 40.17% 9.1% 32.63% 53% Projected change in average annual Temperature ( C) in Emission scenarios Low emission scenarios RCP4.5 High emission scenarios RCP

Start of Cooperation Findings from, PEER Research, Literature review,

11 Actual Result and Deliverables Start of Cooperation between riparian Sates Regional Climate change funding's Regional Climate change fund Start of Cooperation Findings from, PEER Research, Literature review, conferences, face to face meetings For the countries on Trans-boundary water Conflict

Actual Result and Deliverables Data Generated and ways to Calibrate with other granites Generated Temperature &Precipitation Data up to 2090 Predicted Water Demand up to 2090 Current and Future

12 Actual Result and Deliverables Data Generated and ways to Calibrate with other granites Generated Temperature &Precipitation Data up to 2090 Predicted Water Demand up to 2090 Current and Future Hydropower Dams Water Requirement, Increase in Population Rate, Modernization of Irrigation Methods Note: Climate Generated Data of A2, A1B and B1, where to compared to RCPs result of Other Granites Land Use Map, Transboudnay River Maps, Precipitation and Climate Map

The Climate Change Conference in KRB brought

methodology for climate change mitigate in

Exploring possible solution based on the

13 The Climate Change Conference in KRB brought together water experts on the same platform with the following main objectives: 1. Identifying source of funding and practical methodology for climate change mitigate in Kabul river basin 2. Exploring possible solution based on the challenge of climate change impacts of Kabul River Basin. 3. Proposing an adaptive mechanism to guide policy making in the management, governance, and development of the Kabul River Basin.

14 Development Impact Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture, Hydropower,Water and Environment Research capacity on river basins improved Global Health

15 Conclusion & Recommendation The Kabul River Basin has a unique circumstances where both countries are down and up streams of one another. Nonetheless, the distrust and capacity weaknesses have created a complex situation in the basin in terms mutual utilization. This research has formulated a step-by-step conflict transformation process framework which will transform the existing conflicts to sustainable cooperation. The framework is formulated in a manner to change the topic of talks from right to benefits. This framework can be widely used as a decision making tool technically and politically. The findings of this research reveals that the countries will not reach to the state of cooperation in water resources of the basin unless the distrust and capacity weakness challenges are overcome.

16 Thank you for your attention

Water Conflict Management and Cooperation Between Afghanistan and Pakistan

Water Conflict Management and Cooperation Between Afghanistan and Pakistan Apr 2018 By: Said Shakib Atef Fahimeh Sadeghinehzad CONTENTS : Review of Objectives and Scope of study Objective Study area, Data