The importance of wind power in a clean and renewable future

Transcription

1 The importance of wind power in a clean and renewable future Cristina L. Archer Carnegie Institution, Dept. of Global Ecology Stanford University, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering Woods Energy Seminar, Stanford, 16 April 2008

2 Motivation See video clip at:

3 Outline 1. Introduction to wind power Quantification Location 2. Wind intermittency - Storage - Interconnected farms 3. New wind power technologies Impact of global climate change 4. Integration of wind with other renewables

4 Outline 1. Introduction to wind power Quantification Location 2. Wind intermittency - Storage - Interconnected farms 3. New wind power technologies Impact of global climate change 4. Integration of wind with other renewables

5 Modern wind turbines 32 m blade of a 1.5 MW turbine Vindeby (DK)

6 Growth of wind power in the US

7 Growth of wind power in the US 16.8 GW in 2007 up by 45% (EWEA)

8 Global wind potential and demands Global electricity demand (1.8 TW)

9 Global wind potential and demands Global energy demand (14.4 TW) Global electricity demand (1.8 TW)

10 Global wind potential and demands Global energy demand (14.4 TW) Global wind power potential (72 TW) Global electricity demand (1.8 TW) Archer and Jacobson (2005)

11 Global wind potential and demands Global energy demand (14.4 TW) Global electricity demand (1.8 TW) Global wind power potential (72 TW) Global installed wind capacity (94 GW) Archer and Jacobson (2005)

12 Cost of wind power decreasing Wiser and Bolinger (2007)

13 Annual mean 80-m winds Archer and Jacobson (2003, 2005)

14 East Coast US: abundant offshore power Based on buoy data Bottom-mounted technologies Exclusion areas: 46-10% SJ BS Depths: 0-20, 20-50, m CHLV2 Potential: 330 GW DUCN Demands: 185 GW ( 212 GW) Kempton, Archer, et al. (2007)

15 California offshore resource: not as abundant, due to steep bathymetry Based on MM5 simulations Also floating platforms Potential by depth 0-20m: 20-50m: m: Total: GW GW GW GW Current electricity demand in California: 34 GW Dvorak, Jacobson, and Archer (2007)

16 Outline 1. Introduction to wind power Quantification Location 2. Wind intermittency - Storage - Interconnected farms 3. New wind power technologies Impact of global climate change 4. Integration of wind with other renewables

17 Wind is intermittent

18 Wind power is more intermittent

19 Existing storage solutions Compressed Air Energy Storage Pumped Hydro

20 Prototype storage solutions Vehicle-To-Grid Hydrolysis + Hydrogen Fuel Cells

21 Current grid

22 Current grid

23 Current grid

24 Current grid

25 Current grid

26 Interconnected farms

27 The Mid-West array Archer and Jacobson (2007)

28 Single-site has days with no power Archer and Jacobson (2007)

29 Array has fewer days with no power Archer and Jacobson (2007)

30 Array has no days with no power Archer and Jacobson (2007)

31 Non-zero reliable power Archer and Jacobson (2007)

32 Lower transmission requirements Archer and Jacobson (2007)

33 Smoothing effect

34 Smoothing effect

35 A real case: Red Electrica Espana

36 Outline 1. Introduction to wind power Quantification Location 2. Wind intermittency - Storage - Interconnected farms 3. New wind power technologies Impact of global climate change 4. Integration of wind with other renewables

37 KiteGen (500 m) High-altitude wind power Flying Electric Generators (10,000 m) Canale et al. (2007) Roberts et al. (2007)

38 Enormous potential at 10,000 m Wind speed generally increases with height but air density decreases. Wind power density takes that into account (½ρv 3 ). Resource almost constant between 500 and 2000 m. even at 50 th percentile

39 Wind power density at 10,000 m 50 th percentile

40 Reaching altitude where winds are strongest gives higher power 10,000 m Optimal winds

41 Jet stream wind speed trends Hatched where statistically significant Dipoles with green poleward and blue equatorward indicate shifts towards Poles (and vice versa) Archer and Caldeira (GRL, in press)

42 Jet stream latitude anomaly trends All jets are moving towards the Poles Shift poleward is consistent with other signs of global warming (e.g., expansion of Hadley cell) Archer and Caldeira (GRL, in press)

43 Jet stream altitude trends Pressure increases where altitude decreases (and vice versa) All jets are rising Rising consistent with other signs of global warming (e.g., tropopause rising) Archer and Caldeira (GRL, in press)

44 Outline 1. Introduction to wind power Quantification Location 2. Wind intermittency - Storage - Interconnected farms 3. New wind power technologies Impact of global climate change 4. Integration of wind with other renewables

45 No wind during July 2006 heat wave in California July 2006 Heat Wave System Load Vs Capacity Factor System Load (MW) Altamont Capacity Factor (%) Th July 20 Fr July 21 Sa July 22 Su July 23 Mo July 24 Courtesy of W. Whitlatch (PG&E) Altamont capacity: 408 MW

46 A truly renewable future: no single source alone is enough Courtesy of G. Masters

47 but a mix of available and future renewables perhaps will Courtesy of G. Masters

48 Conclusions Global wind power resource is large (72 TW) 80-m wind maps can help siting Offshore resource in US is large and still untapped Intermittency can be ameliorated by interconnecting wind farms, among other techniques No single traditional/renewable/storage technology alone can be the solution Can a mix of renewables be it? To be continued