COST MINIMAL TRANSFORMATION PATHS OF CENTRAL EUROPE S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM Exploring synergies between European countries

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1 COST MINIMAL TRANSFORMATION PATHS OF CENTRAL EUROPE S ELECTRICITY SYSTEM Exploring synergies between European countries BELEC conference, Berlin, May 28 th, 2015

2 AGENDA Brief project overview Methodology The European energy system The German power system in detail Conclusions 2

3 The Project RES-DEGREE Brief Project Overview Towards an energy system in Europe based on renewables: Model based analysis of Greece and Germany by coupling a European wide demand and supply model (PRIMES) with a regional and temporal high resolution bottom-up investment and unit-commitment model (RESlion) Duration: 01/ /2015 Partners: Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Christoph Kost, Charlotte Senkpiel, Tobias Junne, Dr. Niklas Hartmann, Dr. Thomas Schlegl E3MLab, NTUA Athens Prof. Pantelis Capros, Alessia De Vita 3

4 Research questions Brief Project Overview Germany Electricity System What is the distribution of the technologies in a high regional resolution with a focus on Germany? To which extend grid extension is necessary within Germany and its neighbours? Can a detailed GIS approach for RES potentials and generation patterns improve the model results? Coupling Germany and Greece What will be benefits of a DC coupling of northern and southern Europe for Europe s energy system? What will be challenges of a DC coupling of northern and southern Europe for Europe s energy system? 4

5 Coupling of PRIMES and RESLion Methodology European Framework Equilibrium Model Perfect foresight capacity expansion & UCM Endogenous im- and exports Reliability and flexibility constraints Closed loop projections (demand/supply/prices) Sector projections Interplay between electricity, heat, stream and transport PRIMES Model Electricity demand Fuel prices CO 2 -prices RES targets Regional disaggregation Cost minimization of unit commitment and capacity expansion Transmission capacity Regional and temporal high resolution Load change constraints and cost RESLion 5

6 Model RESlion-Europe: The European electricity system Methodology Objective: What are regional/local implications of a RES-E based system? Model input: Electricity demand, RES-E targets, fuel and CO 2 prices Detailed RES potentials by using GIS data Existing generation/transmission infrastructure Model setup: Minimization of costs for power plants & transmission Endogenous investment planning Regional nodes in Germany (27) Model output: Regional long-term scenarios with total system costs Location planning Technology portfolios Electric energy transmission 6

7 Representative weather conditions in energy models Methodology Step 1 and 2: RES potentials Berlin/Brandenburg (South-West Germany: area in Baden-Württemberg) Approach 1) Suitable land for RES potentials (GIS) 2) Classes of weather conditions (e.g. wind speeds m/s) Step 3: Determining reference sites m/s Step 4: Creation of reference profile 3) Determining reference sites for region with class specific potential 4) Reference sites use real weather profile h 7

8 Reference sites in Germany Methodology Determination of reference sites for all model regions Integration of representative profiles and potentials Regional RES-E generation depends on local conditions Wind Roof-top PV Ground.-m. PV Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5 8

9 Overview of analysed scenarios The European Energy System Scenario name EU RES targets Grid developments 1. RES30-50 RES30-50_B 50% RES share in 2050 with intermediate target of 30% in 2030 TYNDP fully development New interconnection pathway between Greece and Germany (DC) 2. RES % RES share in 2050 with intermediate target of 35% in 2030 RES35-65_B 3. RES35-80FDC 80% RES share in 2050 with intermediate target of 35% in 2030 More extensive grid developments beyond TYNDP New interconnection pathway between Greece and Germany (DC) More extensive grid developments beyond TYNDP New interconnection pathway between Greece and Germany with North Sea interconnections (DC) 9

10 Generation share per technology for Germany The German power system in detail EU scenario with 50% RES-E target EU scenario with 80% RES-E target 70% RES-E in Germany Coal stays important Wind generation main contributor High increase of PV generation until

11 Regional distribution of wind power in Germany The German power system in detail (80% scenario) South Central East North South Central East North Strong focus of wind generation in northern Germany Areas with high wind potential are exploited 11 Equal distribution of regional shares in wind generation Highest contribution from offshore regions

12 Regional distribution of PV power in Germany The German power system in detail (80% scenario) South Central East North South Central East North Strong focus of PV generation in southern Germany Highest generation in southeast Regional shares of PV generation are harmonized 12

13 Electric energy flows among German regions The German power system in detail Existing grid structure National transmission grid International net transfer capacities (NTC) 13

14 Regional grid extensions in 80% scenario The German power system in detail Grid extension Strong need for electricity exchange among countries and regions Strong grid extensions required Offshore link North is linked to West Bavaria is linked to Austria and BW/France International connections All neighboring countries BE NL FR OFFS-NS DK CZ AT PL 14

15 Regional impact in Germany Net exporting and importing regions Grid extension Strong North-South flow Net importers mainly in the South West of Germany Net exporter Net importer 15

16 Excursion: Evaluation of classification of weather data The German power system in detail Setup: Case study within 3 regions on: 5 different classes for weather conditions One aggregated weather profile (weighted average) First results using 5 classes: Different power plant portfolio (5% less) Lower grid extension and storages needed Total system cost 0.75% to 1.65% lower Relevance on expansion path within this analyses 16

17 Research questions Conclusion Germany Electricity System What is the distribution of the technologies in a high regional resolution with a focus on Germany? Widely distributed RES-E generation is necessary to achieve high RES-E targets Backup power plants including storages required to ensure system stability in all regions To which extend grid extension is necessary within Germany and its neighbours? Strong grid extension within Germany and it`s neighbouring countries required in high RES scenarios 17

18 Research questions Conclusion Germany Electricity System Can a detailed GIS approach for RES potentials and generation patterns improve the model results? Disaggregated profiles seem to have an positive impact on the model results It is recommendable to address and analyse the impact in more detail 18

19 Research questions Conclusion Coupling Germany and Greece What will be benefits of a DC coupling of northern and southern Europe for Europe s energy system? Harnessing of the vast Solar PV potential that exists in Greece Synergistic exploitation of RES potential in the two countries as Germany decreases Solar capacities and increases Wind capacities Balancing and flexible capacity requirements are optimized, system costs decrease relative to scenarios based on national perspectives Power trade develops along the interconnector and provides benefits in terms of RES and system costs to other countries and at the EUwide level There are benefits in terms of reserve margins and in terms of congestion rates 19

20 Research questions Conclusion Coupling Germany and Greece What will be challenges of a DC coupling of northern and southern Europe for Europe s energy system? Proper functioning of the markets that lie along the route of the interconnectors (Balkan region) and wide market-coupling Perfect functioning of the Internal Energy Market and flow-based allocation of interconnection capacities Adequate support to ensure RES investment 20

21 Thank you for your kind attention! Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Charlotte Senkpiel 21