The Scientific Foundations for Policy. Copenhagen and. The Arctic Region in a Climate Change World

Transcription

1 The Arctic Region in a Climate Change World The Scientific Foundations for Policy Pathways for Copenhagen and Beyond Dr. Robert W. Corell, Chair of the Climate Action Initiative, an International Partnership

2 The stakes are high. Climate change has profound implications for virtually all aspects of human well being, from jobs and health to food security and peace within and among nations. Yet too often climate change is seen as an environmental problem when it should be part of the broader development and economic agenda. Until we acknowledge the all-encompassing nature of the threat, Kofi Anan. Former Secretary General of the United Nations our response will fall short.

3 Let s look at the Earth s climate 621 CO 2 during the time that humanity, as Concentrations ti over we know it, established itself. the past 400,000 years, with current levels of CO 2 higher than they have been CO 2 Levels Now at ~ 385 ppmv in 800, years. CO 2 Pre-Industrial Levels where at ~ 280 to 300 ppmv Let s look at this Let s look at this scale of time, the past 10,000 years or so.

4 Tiny Hollow Spheres with Captured Samples Ice Core data A shopping list Cross-Section of an Ice Core SF 6. The ice: 18 O, 17 O, 16 O, 1 H og 2 D Continental dust, volcanic ash, micro metheorites and biological material Ions: Cl -, NO 3-, SO 2-4, F -, H +, Na +, K +, NH 4+, Mg 2+, Ca 2+ Gas in air bubbles: CO 2, CH 4, O 2, N 2, SF Radioactive isotopes: 10 Be, 36 Cl, 210 Pb, 32 Si, 14 C, 137 Cs, 90 Sr. DNA Ice Properties Bore hole logging: g temperature, geometry Natural ice through polarized light (sample size : 4 x 10 cm)

5 One Degree Matters

6 We face an incredible challenge: Emissions now exceed the IPCC Worst-case Scenario. Foss sil Fuel Em missions (GtC/y yr) (IPCC Worst-Case)

7 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Year 2008 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration: 387 ppm ~ 40% above pre-industrial Growth in Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations/Year : 1.3 ppm/year : 1.6 ppm/year : 1.5 ppm/year : 2.0 ppm/year 2007: 2.2 ppm/year 2008: 2.3.ppm/year Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL At this accelerating rate we will be at 500 ppm by 2050 Accele erating

8 New Data Global Carbon Project October 2008 Report Since 2000, CO 2 emissions derived from human sources have been growing g x4 faster than in the 1990s and are now above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Despite 15 years of intense international climate negotiations, concentrations of CO 2 in the atmospheric have been growing 33% faster during the last 8 years than in the 1990s. These drivers of climate change are accelerating.

9 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) ~ 20% Atmosphere ~ 46% 46% 4.2 Pg Carbon/yr (1.5 Pg Carbon /yr) ~ 80%+ Land ~ 29% Oceans 2.6 Carbon Pg/yr ~ 26% 2 3 Carbon Pg/yr Down by 5% (7.5 Pg Carbon /yr) 2.3 Carbon Pg/yr Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated) Down ~ 5%

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11 Let s look at the role the oceans play in the dynamics of climate change.

12 Why are the oceans Important? Because, that is where the heat goes! Data from Levitus et al, Science, 2001

13 Warming of the World s Oceans (An Analysis of the past 40 Years) No Anthropogenic Forcing (Blue) With Anthropogenic Forcing (Green) Observational Data (Red Dots) Source: T.P. Barnett, et al 2005

14 Does this Melting of Sea Ice have other Effects, such as an Impacts on Oceanic Circulation? Critical Region

15 Changes in Oceanic Temperatures of Importance.

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17 Conveyor OFF Strong cooling in North Atlantic Warming everywhere else No net global change

18 Marine Species Impacted by Ocean Acidification

19 Ocean Acidification What are the prospects for the coming decades? Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Turley et al 2006)

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21 QuickTime and a H.264 decompressor are needed to see this picture. The Arctic is now experiencing some of the rapid and severe climate change on Earth!

22 The Arctic region is facing dramatic changes Substantial Changes in Climate and weather Rapid cultural and social change Globalization such as mixed economies and technological changes High Concentrations of Contaminants such as PCBs and mercury Ozone depletion that leads to UV i

23 September 10-14, Years = An Increase of 1.25 O C or 2.25 O F

24 Recent Findings: ACIA Model Projections in Million Square Kilometers on September 15, 2008 Actual Sea Ice Extent 2007 and 2008

25 Arctic Sea Ice Conditions on September 15th 2008 Greenlan d Russi a Alaska

26 Projections of Sea Ice Extent for Mid-September These open waters dramatically change the balance of reflected radiation from about 85% reflected to about 85% absorbed by both the open Recent water Model ocean Runs and the non-snow covered land, a major change in the Suggest radiation this feedback by mechanisms, accelerating warming and major changes plus in or weather minus patterns. a decade

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28 Ilulissat Region of Greenland Ilulissat Glacier Ilulissatli Fjord

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31 Ilulissat Glacier: Major Calving Effect

32 Scale is over kilometer across the face and about 900 meters high

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35 What are some of the other consequences for the Arctic Region?

36 Methane Bogs in Siberia QuickTime and a H.264 decompressor are needed to see this picture.

37 Shifting patterns in weather types and locations. Thunderstorms have migrated northward, along with lightning, which apparently caused the first known wildfire north of the Brooks Range occurred last summer. 15

38 Climate driven changes in marine ecosystems. These shifts are governed by (1) changes in oceanic temperatures, (2) salinity, (3) nutrients, (4) changing patterns in North Atlantic Deep Water formation, and (5) interspecies interactions.

39 The sea and inland ice is changing rapidly and disappearing in The sea and inland ice is changing rapidly and disappearing in places essential to indigenous residents of the Arctic.

40 In Summary: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale l features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice. Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. What can we say about the future?

41 Purpose of C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support) Improve understanding of important climate dynamics among: Policymakersy Educators The public A climate model that is designed to help ensure that climate policy is informed by accepted, peer- reviewed science

42 An Assessment of Current Copenhagen (CoP 15) Proposals by the 192 Countries of the UNFCCC EU - Emissions 80% below 1990 by 2050 Brazil % reduction of 2004 by 2020 China - Reduce emissions intensity 20% by 2020 South Africa - 40% below 2003 by 2050 US (Warn-Lieb) - 71% below 2005 by 2050 Other Latin America - bau India - Reduce emissions intensity 20% by 2020 Other Africa - bau Russia levels Mexico - 10% below 2004 by 2014 Other Asia - Reduce emissions intensity 20% by 2020 Global Deforestation - bau Canada - 20% Middle East - bau OECD Pacific - below 2006 by 60% below by 2050 (AUS) Afforestation - bau

43 The Publicly Known Proposals to Reduce Emissions as of September 2009 Drops CO2 Concentrations from 950 ppm to about 700 ppm (The Target is 450 ppm of less) BAU Sept 09 Proposals Source: Climate Action Initiative using C-ROADS and SI Analysis of the Current Proposals

44 The Publicly Known Proposals to Reduce Emissions as of September 2009 Yields an Average Global Temperature from the Business As Usual (BAU) of o C (over 7 o F) by 2100 to about 3.5 o C above Pre-Industrial BAU Sept 09 Proposals Source: Climate Action Initiative using C-ROADS and SI Analysis of the Current Proposals

45 Sea Level Rise Projected for the Current Proposals by the 192 FNCCC Nations

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47 The question is: At what temperature will we stabilize? IPCC (2007) Forecast 750 ppm ~ C 550 ppm ~ 3 0 C 450 ppm ~ 2 0 C There is the potential that the climate is likely, as projected by the IPCC, to take humankind where it has never been 17

48 Climate change is no longer simply an environmental issue, it is an issue of economic security as well a an equity issue for human well-being. bi The policy challenges are extraordinarily difficult! Thank You!

49 The Model

50 C-ROADS Model Structure User Input (3, 7, or 15 blocs) Other GHGs Specific country emissions Total fossil fuel CO2 emissions Carbon cycle GHGs in atm Climate Temp Sea Level rise Deforestation Afforestation Net CO2 emissions from forests Forests User Input

51 The Simulation Produces Atmospheric CO 2 Levels Consistent with IPCC and other Scenarios 1,000 Atmospheric CO2 Projected BERN ISAM A1FI 750 BERN ISAM B1 ppm (C-ROADS results in blue) MAGICC WRE Time (Year)

52 Conclusion of Scientific Review Panel The C-ROADS model: reproduces the response properties of state-of- the-art three dimensional climate models very well is a sensitivity tool, rather than a tool to provide precise quantitative estimates of projected emissions, CO 2 concentrations, and temperature and sea level responses. Given the model s capabilities and its close alignment with a range of scenarios published in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC we support its widespread use among policy makers and the general public.

53 Simulator Helps Users Conduct Customized Tests: What If..? TonsC/year 10 B 7.5 B 5 B Regional FF Emissions Business as usual TonsC/year 6 B 4.5 B 3 B Regional FF Emissions All reduced 80% by 2050? TonsC/year 6 B 4.5 B 3 B Regional FF Emissions Or by 2030? 2.5 B 1.5 B 1.5 B Time (year) Time (year) Time (year) TonsC/year 6 B 4.5 B 3 B Regional FF Emissions Some by 2030 and others 2060? TonsC/year 6 B 4.5 B 3 B Regional FF Emissions Starting in 2018? TonsC/year 6 B 4.5 B 3 B Regional FF Emissions Developed acts but undeveloped doesn t? 1.5 B 1.5 B 1.5 B Time (year) Time (year) Time (year) (all graphs fossil fuel emissions)