COP19 Side event Organized by: Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet), IGES and NIES GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Asia for the Two

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1 Mitigation Potential towards achieving global 2 O C Stabilization Target: Assessment for India Priyadarshi R Shukla COP19 Side event Organized by: Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet), IGES and NIES GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Asia for the Two Degree Target November 15, 2013 (16:30 to 18:00 hours) Warsaw, Poland

2 Soft Linked Integrated Model Soft Linked Integrated Model System (SLIM) DATABASES Socio Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment DATABASES Socio -Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts d End U Use Deman End Use Demand Model M AIM CGE/GCAM IIM AIM CGE Model ANSWER MARKAL Model ANSWER -MARKAL Model AIM ExSS AIM SNAPSHOT Model AIM Strategic Da atabase Sce enario Dat tabase (SDB) Sustainable Transport I ndicators Database Transport Model Transport Demand Model Transport Database

3 National Development and Transport Scenarios Base (BAU) Changes due to price of carbon GDP 8% CAGR CO2 3.6 deg C Changes due to targeted strategies + a carbon budget equivalent to conventional scenario National Dev. Scenarios Conventional Low Carbon Scenario GDP ~ 8% CAGR CO2 2 deg C Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario GDP Pegged to 8% CAGR CO2 2 deg C Transport Scenarios Sustainable Mobility i. Public Transport ii. NMT iii. Urban Design iv. High speed rail Sustainable Technologies i. Electric Vehicles ii. Fuel Economy iii. ICT Navigation Sustainable Fuels i. Bio fuels ii. CNG iii. Clean Electricity Sustainable Logistics i. Dedicated Rail Co. ii. Coal by wire iii. Regional Pipelines Passenger Passenger & Freight Freight

4 INDIA: Primary Energy BAU LCS Sustainable 2825 Energ gy Consum mption (Mto oe)

5 INDIA: Primary Energy Mix (2050) Biomass 3% BAU 2825 Mtoe Other Renewables 2% Sustainable LCS 2207 Mtoe Large Hydro 3% Nuclear 11% Other Coal Renewable 3% 28% 24% Gas 16% Coal 52% Biomass 13% Gas Oil 13% Large 11% Hydro Nuclear 8% 5% Oil 11%

6 CO 2 Reduction: Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario 8,000 Others CCS 6,000 Transport Demand Recycling Reduced consumption Material substitution Device efficiency Renewable Energy MtCO2 4,000 Building Fossil fuel switching 2,

7 Sustainable Low Carbon Transport: Results of Modeling Assessment

8 Sustainable Mobility Storyline Non-Motorized Transport Pipe Transport Coal-by-wire Fuel Economy (Cars) (lit gasoline / 100 km) BAU Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario

9 Energy Mix for Transport BAU Sustainable LCT MT Toe 150 Mt toe Oil Electricity CNG Hydrogen Jet fuel Biofuel Oil Electricity CNG Hydrogen Jet fuel Biofuel

10 Transport Sector CO 2 Emissions CO2 Emiss sions (MTCO O2) BAU Sustainable LCT

11 Transport Fuel Mix in 2050 Electricity 8% BAU Hydrogen 0% Sustainable LCT Hydrogen 1% CNG 16% Electricity 19% OiL 30% Biofuel 3% Jetfuel 9% OiL 64% CNG 19% Biofuel 23% Jetfuel 8%

12 CO 2 Mitigation: Sustainable LCT Scenario 1000 CO O2 Emissio ons (MTCO O2) Electric Mobility + Electric cleaning Fuel Switching Fuel Economy Shift Demand Reduction Residual Emissions

13 Co benefits: Improved Air Quality 1000 (Thousand Ton SO 2 ) BAU Sustainable LC Scenario

14 Conclusions: 2 O C Stabilization and Sustainable Development 1. Under Economically efficient 2 O C Stabilization regime, India will have less than 2 ton per capita CO 2 emission in Participation in stabilization will cause substantial change in India s energy system and consumption behavior 3. Altered choices would add costs in the short run and would require technology transfer as well as domestic innovations. 4. Transport sector can deliver sustained emissions cuts if shortrun infrastructure choices are made to avoid long term lock ins 5. Policies that align CO 2 mitigation and sustainable development can deliver significant co benefits to off set the added costs

15 Thank You UNEP Project Website: AIM Website: www iam iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ LoCARNet Website: rnet.org/about_locarnet/